The 2006 war and its inter-temporal economic impact on agriculture in Lebanon

The July 2006 war waged by Israel on Lebanon caused an estimated USD 1 billion of direct (financial) damage to infrastructure. However, it generated also significant indirect (economic/inter-temporal) costs. One sector that suffered considerably in this respect was agriculture, the main source of income for 30–40 per cent of Lebanese. This paper's main objective is to develop a methodology to estimate the total—direct and indirect—cost of the war to agricultural crop production, using an area of south Lebanon as a focal point. The indirect loss assessment viewed inter-temporal reductions in crop production values as the opportunity cost of not working fields due to the presence of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Various crops were evaluated for two scenarios (50 and 100 per cent damage due to UXO) over UXO-clearance periods of five and 10 years. The results indicate that any damage estimates that include only direct losses will under-estimate total losses by 80 and 87 per cent for the five- and 10-year periods, respectively.     

Civilians under fire: evacuation behaviour in north Israel during the Second Lebanon War

This paper seeks to understand evacuation behaviour in a case of spontaneous evacuation. During the Second Lebanon War of 2006, more than one‐third of residents in north Israel spontaneously evacuated—the remainder stayed in situ. Using a telephone survey of 665 respondents residing in north Israel, we were able to characterise the behaviour of evacuees and non‐evacuees. The main reasons cited for evacuating were fear of injury to self or family, the effect on children, inability to remain in a protective space, and family pressure. The main reasons cited for remaining at home were no suitable alternative, did not perceive a high level of danger, had to go to work, and there is no place like home. There were no significant differences with regard to most socio‐demographic characteristics of the population. These findings should aid emergency managers in preparing the population for a future emergency and in engaging in effective dialogue with the population during an emergency on the evacuation option.     

Still falling short: protection and partnerships in the Lebanon emergency response

The Israeli–Hezbollah conflict in the summer of 2006, although brief, had a lasting impact on the region and prompted an intense humanitarian response. The conflict raised challenging questions for the United Nations (UN) about how to assist a middle‐income yet extremely vulnerable population in a context where global and local relations are highly politicised. This paper focuses on two key questions that emerged from the humanitarian response. First, how can humanitarian agencies, and particularly the UN, improve the protection of civilians, and was what they did in Lebanon enough? Second, how can humanitarian agencies create partnerships with local actors and still remain true to core humanitarian principles when local actors are fiercely divided along confessional lines and influenced by external actors, and when some, such as Hezbollah, are parties to the conflict? This paper argues that despite the importance of protection and partnerships to the humanitarian response, their role in the UN emergency response still falls short.     

Investigative consequence analysis: A case study research of beirut explosion accident

Around 15:00 GMT on August 4th, an explosion occurred in the warehouse facility storing Ammonium Nitrate (AN) at Beirut port, Lebanon. The explosion resulted in more than 178 fatalities and injured more than 6500 people, and also left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and registered as an equivalent to a 3.3 magnitude earth quake. The accident was considered to be the largest of its kind and the most severe anthropological disaster of the decade, the financial loss the nation was subjected to post the explosion was estimated to be around $ 15 billion as informed by the governor. The storage conditions of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port is not definitively known to anyone, and there is no documentation provided so far from the authorities regarding the same. This work focuses on the investigation & consequence analysis of the explosion using TNT equivalent approach. The overpressure and the impulse obtained from TNT calculations are used in probit models to assess the damages caused on human beings and structures. The results obtained in this investigative approach are then utilized to provide an analytical inference relative to the damage proxy map reported by the advance rapid imaging analysis team from NASA. Also, this work examines the existing standards, fire safety measures and legal regulations for ammonium nitrate facilities in the region. AN explosion during storage like other fire and explosion accidents are definitely preventable owing to the technological advancements and developments to prevent or extinguish controllable fires. The significance of this work relates to the methods for calculation of consequences of explosion that are happening due to the storage of highly hazardous explosive materials in excessive quantities and insists the necessity of incorporating adequate safety measures while storing such reactive and hazardous materials.     

Managing emissions from highly industrialized areas: Regulatory compliance under uncertainty

The use of regulatory and compliance-based modeling for air quality impact assessment is invariably relied upon to predict future air quality under various management scenarios particularly where air quality monitoring data are limited. This paper examines the dispersion from a multi-stack cement manufacturing complex with associated quarries and transport activities for regulatory compliance under uncertain emission and meteorological conditions. The concentrations of CO, NO_x, SO₂ and PM at sensitive receptor locations were used as indicators in comparison to World Health Organization (WHO) interim guidelines. Exceedance exposure areas were delineated under bounded uncertainties in input emission factors and meteorological parameters. Planning and management initiatives were tested to control/minimize potential exposure. Compared to the case of low emissions and actual meteorological conditions, the consideration of worst emissions coupled to worst meteorological conditions enlarged the boundaries of the exceedance exposure areas considerably. The implementation of best available technologies and enforcement of emission standards improved air quality in the region significantly and lowered the exposure at many population centers to below health standards. Uncertainty in the output of atmospheric dispersion models continues to play a significant role to be considered at the point where science is translated into political decision making.     

Perspectives for sustainable management of cedar forests in Lebanon: situation analysis and guidelines

The signature and ratification of the convention on biological diversity by the Lebanese government has boosted the declaration of nature reserves. Cedar forests formed the pilot ecosystems, using international funds, for the implementation of a conservation programme and development of management plans. Although different in their attributes, all recent nature reserves have the same basic management objectives and goals but they ignore the idea of taking into account the difference in specific site features and assets that could boost the success of any management plans. Twelve cedar forests flourish in the Mount Lebanon chain. These forests are either protected by the forestry law or are declared as nature reserves by the Ministry of Environment. The results reveal, through Participatory Rural Appraisals and Rapid Rural Appraisals, that religion, geographical location and land ownership play, to a certain extent, a role in adopting successful management practices of cedar forests. The RRAs and PRAs spell out the origins of woodcraft, old stories memorized by elderly people and ethnobotanical knowledge. The 4Rs tools method adopted highlighted the need for more collaboration and synergy of effort between various institutions. The social, ecological and economic aspects of the regions play a major role in defining the backbone of management plans for cedar forests in Lebanon. The present paper proposes guidelines for the establishment of a network of cedar nature reserves in Lebanon adopting collaborative management and assigning a separate role for each reserve; the details rely on the site’s natural features, as well as socio-economic and cultural characteristics. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Determinants of the Willingness-to-Participate in an Environmental Intervention in a Beirut Neighborhood

Participatory environmental management can empower communities and enhance the sustainability of environmental interventions. However, existing power structures and inequalities along class, gender, or ethnic lines could prevent part of the community from accessing the full benefits of the intervention. An analysis of determinants of the willingness-to-participate in an environmental intervention in a Beirut neighborhood is conducted. Socioeconomic, health-risk distribution, and perception of community efficacy are used as predictors. A randomly selected sample of residents was surveyed. Respondents were asked to specify the frequency with which they were willing to be involved in an intervention to address priority environmental problems in the neighborhood. Bivariate and multivariate ordinal regression analyses were conducted. Tests of significance were based on the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the odds ratio (OR). Males versus females (OR = 4.89, P < 0.001), respiratory patients versus nonsufferers (OR = 5.65, P < 0.001), tenants versus house owners (OR = 2.98, P < 0.01), and the less educated versus the more educated (OR = 2.42, P < 0.05) were significantly more likely to be willing to participate. The reluctance of female community members to participate might be a major hindrance to community-based environmental protection and special strategies must be devised to overcome it. On the other hand, respondents suffering from an illness perceived to be related to environmental toxins are likely to be strong participants in environmental conservation efforts. Finally, the study yielded no evidence that belief or lack of it in the efficacy of community action is a good predictor of the willingness-to-participate in such action.     

Between international donors and local faith communities: Intermediaries in humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon

This paper explores the crucial part that faith‐based organisations (FBOs) play in acting as intermediaries between international donors and local faith communities (LFCs) implementing humanitarian relief projects for Syrian refugees. Humanitarian responses to the mounting Syrian refugee crisis have coincided with greater collaboration between international donors and LFCs. This cooperation often is facilitated by a complex web of non‐state intermediaries at the international, national, and local level. This study probes the breadth of roles of these intermediaries, drawing on primary data from case studies of two Christian intermediaries supporting Christian LFCs as they deliver aid primarily to Muslim Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon. The results of the study are connected to the wider literature on LFCs in humanitarian response, revealing how intermediaries address issues of accountability, capacity‐building, impartiality, neutrality, and professionalism. The paper concludes by offering suggestions for further research on intermediaries as key actors in the localisation of humanitarian assistance.