Relationship between PM10 and PM2.5 levels in high-traffic area determined using path analysis and linear regression

The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) levels as related to meteorological conditions and traffic flow using both a linear regression analysis and a path analysis. The Particulate matter(PM) samples were collected from Sukhumvit road, Bangkok, Thailand, at both open(104 samples) and covered(92 samples)areas along the road. Fifteen percent of all samples were separated before the statistical models were run and used for model validation. The results from the path analysis were more elaborate than those from the linear regression, thus indicating that meteorological conditions had a direct effect on the particulate levels and that the effects of traffic flow were more variable in open areas. The model also indicated that meteorological conditions had an indirect effect and that traffic flow had a direct effect on particulate levels in covered areas. The model validation results indicated that for open areas, the R~2 values were not very different between the path analysis and the linear regression model, but that the path analysis was more accurate than the linear regression model at very low PM concentrations. At high PM concentrations, the path analysis model also had a better fit than did the linear regression, so the predictions from the path analysis model were more accurate than those from the linear regression.     

复杂矿井通风系统角联风路自动识别方法的研究

角联风路的识别与稳定性分析是矿井通风系统稳定性与可靠性分析理论中的核心内容之一。笔者对通风系统角联风路进行了深入的研究;分析了通路法的局限性,简化了角联风路的数学模型,提出了快速、准确、灵活的角联风路自动识别的新方法——节点位置法;编写了角联风路自动识别软件,并应用现场数据进行测试,将其结果与通路法的结果进行了比较分析;证明了节点位置法是切实可行的。     

英国联合利华公司的兼并策略研究

当前,国内外市场正掀起公司整合、兼并的浪潮,针对英国联合利华公司的战略动机和兼并对公司的潜在影响。运用竞争态势分析（SWOT）方法．从六个方面分析了联合利华公司两个成功案例。结合管理模式和国家文化的差异。关注社会文化与“战略性文化适应”。对联合利华最近5年来的成长战略和Best Foods公司战略核心要素进行了分析。评价了联合利华的战略发展和将来的战略发展方向。指出联合利华品牌减少战略体现出核心竞争,加强个人护理产品的生产．保持持续发展和竞争优势．以期达到相当的经济规模．是值得借鉴的成功经验。     

Behavioral pathways in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes: From contributing factors,pre-crash actions,to injury severities

Introduction: This study performed a path analysis to uncover the behavioral pathways (from contributing factors, pre-crash actions to injury severities) in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes. Method: The analysis investigated more than 7,000 bicycle-motor vehicle crashes in North Carolina between 2007 and 2014. Pre-crash actions discussed in this study are actions of cyclists and motorists prior to the event of a crash, including “bicyclist failed to yield,” “motorist failed to yield,” “bicyclist overtaking motorist,” and “motorist overtaking bicyclist.” Results: Model results show significant correlates of pre-crash actions and bicyclist injury severity. For example, young bicyclists (18 years old or younger) are 23.5% more likely to fail to yield to motor traffic prior to the event of a crash than elder bicyclists. The “bicyclist failed to yield” action is associated with increased bicyclist injury severity than other actions, as this behavior is associated with an increase of 5.88 percentage points in probability of a bicyclist being at least evidently injured. The path analysis can highlight contributing factors related to risky pre-crash actions that lead to severe injuries. For example, bicyclists traveling on regular vehicle travel lanes are found to be more likely to involve the “bicyclist failed to yield” action, which resulted in a total 44.38% (7.04% direct effect + 37.34% indirect effect) higher likelihood of evident or severe injuries. The path analysis can also identify factors (e.g., intersection) that are not directly but indirectly correlated with injury severity through pre-crash actions. Practical Applications: This study offers a methodological framework to quantify the behavioral pathways in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes. The findings are useful for cycling safety improvements from the perspective of bicyclist behavior, such as the educational program for cyclists.     

钢铁企业循环经济影响因素及作用路径研究

基于企业实力、环境管制、公众参与及绿色竞争等理论,提出了钢铁企业循环经济影响因素及作用路径研究模型,并采用偏最小二乘路径分析法,以我国54家钢铁企业2013年数据为例展开实证研究。结果表明:企业特征因素、市场竞争因素、政府因素对钢铁企业循环经济发展水平有直接影响,且影响效应依次递减;公众因素对循环经济发展水平有间接影响,且影响效应较低。同时,验证了此方法的科学性与适用性。     

沈阳地区冬季空气颗粒物输送路径及潜在源分析

文章利用2016~2017年冬季沈阳地区气象数据和环境空气污染物浓度数据,综合分析沈阳地区冬季环境空气污染特征,分析颗粒物输送路径以及潜在源区贡献情况。结果表明,沈阳地区冬季污染时段内PM2.5是主要污染物,PM2.5平均浓度达到149μg/m^3,最大值达到273μg/m^3。沈阳地区环境空气颗粒物除来源于本地排放外,还主要受到内蒙古东北部和京津冀北部2个方向传输影响,内蒙古东北部方向传输气量约占总气量的70%。潜在源区分析表明,辽宁中西部、内蒙古东北部及京津冀北部是沈阳地区环境空气颗粒物潜在源区。浓度权重轨迹分析表明,辽宁大部、内蒙古东北部、京津冀北部和山东局部地区对沈阳地区的颗粒物浓度贡献较大,PM2.5修正后的浓度权重值WCWT>50μg/m^3,PM10的WCWT值>100μg/m^3。     

Technique for assessing erosion risk from mountain footpaths

One of the most pressing problems facing wilderness managers in the ecologically fragile Drakensberg Mountains, South Africa, is that of path erosion, since it detracts from the wilderness experience and is very costly to remediate. As increasing demand for wilderness and outdoor recreation places greater pressure on paths and trails, it will be necessary to increase path network size and capacity, and it is important that new paths are routed such that maintenance requirements are minimal. This study describes the development of a technique based on the site and environmental variables of rainfall, topographic slope, and lithology, which enables assessment of path erosion risk before paths are planned and constructed. The technique was tested on a path at the Drakensberg resort of Loteni, and showed good correlation with actual path degradation. When used as a tool in path network planning, it can aid in the selection of low-maintenance routes and also help in planning maintenance budgets.     

飞机防火试验中的燃烧反应动力学模型研究

使用反应路径分析法对Jet-A型航空煤油燃烧的气相燃烧机理进行简化。选用POSF-4658机理作为Jet-A燃烧的详细反应机理,该机理包含1607种燃烧组分、6633个基元反应机理。将飞机防火试验条件作为简化过程的初始条件,得到78种组分,196个反应机理的Jet-A燃烧机理。通过对Jet-A的简化反应机理、详细反应机理和JetA实验数据的比较可以发现,简化反应机理可以较准确地反映Jet-A型航空煤油在防火试验条件下的燃烧特性。利用常用的Jet-A型航空煤油简化机理计算的绝热火焰温度、点火延迟时间及层流火焰速度与本文提出的简化的计算值进行比较。结果表明,提出的简化机理在防火试验条件下具有较高的精确度。得到的Jet-A简化反应机理可为飞机防火试验的仿真研究提供燃烧场的化学反应动力学模型。     

Agricultural policies and the emergence of cotton as the dominant crop in northern Côte d'Ivoire: Historical overview and current outlook

In most of sub‐Saharan Africa, where the agricultural sector experiences dismal performance and is characterized by a gloomy picture, the cotton sub‐sector in Côte d’Ivoire is often mentioned as a “success story” given the spectacular rise in the quantity of cotton production and the profile of the crop within the farming system. What are the historical and political antecedents of the development of cotton and the factors responsible for the feat accomplished in the midst of general failures in the same continent? To what extent can cotton be regarded as a “success story” and, what lessons can be drawn for agricultural development strategies based on the Ivorian case study? This paper traces the historical and socio‐political background of cotton development in Côte d’Ivoire and identifies key policy and institutional interventions that have influenced the rise of cotton production and its emergence as the dominant crop in the farming systems of the country. Four stages in Ivorian cotton development are identified: planning, take off, crisis and the renaissance phases. The study demonstrates how a combination of good planning, technological advancement and appropriate policy and institutional conditions have contributed significantly to the rise of cotton production and its influence on the agricultural economy of northern Côte d’Ivoire. The study also highlights how the sustainability of agricultural development has been impacted by domestic and international policies and political events over which smallholder farm families have little control, and can at best only respond to. Important questions about cotton development in Côte d'Ivoire are raised that need to be answered before the program can be categorized conclusively as a success story. The study shows that there are no quick fixes to agricultural development in the sub‐region. Rather, good planning and putting the necessary building blocks in place are important prerequisites. It is recommended that agricultural development efforts in the continent take cognizance of the complexity of the sector and address the inter‐relationships that exist among the technical, policy, market and institutional factors that combine individually and collectively to influence African agriculture.     

The Historical Dynamics of Social–Ecological Traps

Environmental degradation is a typical unintended outcome of collective human behavior. Hardin’s metaphor of the “tragedy of the commons” has become a conceived wisdom that captures the social dynamics leading to environmental degradation. Recently, “traps” has gained currency as an alternative concept to explain the rigidity of social and ecological processes that produce environmental degradation and livelihood impoverishment. The trap metaphor is, however, a great deal more complex compared to Hardin’s insight. This paper takes stock of studies using the trap metaphor. It argues that the concept includes time and history in the analysis, but only as background conditions and not as a factor of causality. From a historical–sociological perspective this is remarkable since social–ecological traps are clearly path-dependent processes, which are causally produced through a conjunction of events. To prove this point the paper conceptualizes social–ecological traps as a process instead of a condition, and systematically compares history and timing in one classic and three recent studies of social–ecological traps. Based on this comparison it concludes that conjunction of social and environmental events contributes profoundly to the production of trap processes. The paper further discusses the implications of this conclusion for policy intervention and outlines how future research might generalize insights from historical–sociological studies of traps.