汶川地震灾区过渡房安置点场地选择中的地震问题

大地震后,如何在最短的时间内在灾区选择比较安全的过渡房安置点建设场地,是一项具有挑战性的工作。本文以四川省汶川8.0级大地震后灾区群众快速安置为背景,论述了选择过渡房安置点场地必须考虑的地震问题,并提出了处理地震断层、地表裂缝、砂土液化、坍塌等实际问题的方案;利用强余震的预测结果,分析了这些灾害对场地可能造成的危害;同时对可能潜在的滑坡、危岩崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害提出相应的处理建议,供安置点规划建设参考。     

鳗鲡仔鱼(Anguilla japonica Temn.et Schl.)对铜离子的回避反应

本文力图用回避实验的方法分析铜离子对闽江鳗鲡及其他水产资源的影响。实验在流水中进行,温度为16±0.5℃,pH为7.43±0.2,溶解氧为62—68.9％;鱼体长为46—69.5mm,重量为174.2—226.6mg;每一浓度测试20次。当浓度为0.0001ppm时,回避度为12.81％;浓度为0.016ppm时,有明显的回避反应,回避度为58.28％;浓度升至0.064ppm时,回避度84.74％,为完全回避。     

Toxicity assessing for chlorpyrifos-contaminated soil with three different earthworm test methods

Earthworm toxicity tests are useful tools for terrestrial risk assessment but require a hierarchy of test designs that differ in effect levels (behavior, sublethal, lethal). In this study, the toxicity of chlorpyrifos contaminated soil on earthworms was assessed. In addition to the acute and chronic tests, an avoidance response test was applied. Earthworms were exposed to sublethal and lethal concentration of chlorpyrifos, and evaluated for acute toxicity, growth, fecundity and avoidance response after a certain exposure period. The test methods covered all important ecological relevant endpoints (acute, chronic, behavioral). Concentration of 78.91 mg/kg, chlorpyrifos caused significant toxic effects in all test methods, but at lower test concentrations, only significant chronic toxic effects could be observed. In the present study, chlorpyrifos had adverse effect on growth and fecundity in earthworm exposed to 5 mg/kg chlorpyrifos after eight weeks. The avoidance response test, however, showed significant repellent effects concentration of 40 mg/kg chlorpyrifos. For chlorpyrifos, concentration affecting avoidance response was far greater than growth and fecundity, it seemed likely that earthworms were not able to escape from pesticide-contaminated soil into the clean soil in field and hence were exposed continuously to elevated concentrations of pesticides.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Choice of teenagers' vehicles and views on vehicle safety: survey of parents of novice teenage drivers

Objective

To examine parental decisions about vehicles driven by teenagers and parental knowledge of vehicle safety.

Methods

About 300 parents were interviewed during spring 2006 in Minnesota, North Carolina, and Rhode Island while teenagers took their first on-road driving tests.

Results

Fewer than half of parents surveyed said teenagers would be the primary drivers of the chosen vehicles. Parents most often cited safety, existing family vehicle, and reliability when explaining the choices for their teenagers’ vehicles. About half of the vehicles intended for teenagers were small/mini/sports cars, pickups, or SUVs — vehicles considered less safe for teenagers than midsize/large cars or minivans. A large majority of vehicles were 2001 models or earlier. Vehicles purchased in anticipation of adding a new driver to the family were more likely to be the sizes/types considered less safe than vehicles already owned. Few parents insisted on side airbags or electronic stability control, despite strong evidence of their safety benefits. Even when asked to identify ideal vehicles for their teenagers to drive, about half of parents identified less safe vehicle sizes/types. Most parents knew that midsize/large vehicles are safer than small vehicles, and at least half of parents said SUVs and pickups are not safe for teenage drivers, citing instability.

Conclusions

The majority of parents understood some of the important criteria for choosing safe vehicles for their teenagers. However, parents actually selected many vehicles for teenagers that provide inferior crash protection.

Impact on industry

Vehicle safety varies substantially by vehicle size, type, and safety features. Many teenagers are driving inferior vehicles in terms of crashworthiness and crash avoidance.     

居民对垃圾焚烧发电态度的实证研究——以泰安市垃圾焚烧电厂为例

基于对山东省泰安市垃圾焚烧发电厂周边居民的调查数据,运用SPSS20.0统计软件对数据进行二元Logistic回归分析,探讨垃圾焚烧发电厂周边居民对电厂态度的影响因素。实证结果表明,是否被征求意见、是否接受物质补偿这二个变量对周边居民的态度具有显著的正向影响;而受教育年限、是否知道二噁英、居住地与电厂距离与周边居民态度呈显著负相关关系。结合相关研究,发现本研究中影响电厂周边居民态度的因素既有普遍性,也有特殊性。     

公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

土壤Cd污染对跳虫Folsomia candida的生态毒性

采矿及冶炼等行为造成了严重的土壤重金属污染,其中Cd污染及其带来的健康风险近年来引起人们的高度重视。利用弹尾目跳虫开展土壤Cd污染的生态毒理研究,对Cd污染土壤的生态风险评价具有重要意义。本研究将跳虫Folsomia candida(F.candida)暴露在不同Cd浓度污染的人工土壤中,利用跳虫存活数量、繁殖数量及回避行为实验来评价重金属Cd污染对跳虫的生态毒性。结果表明,Cd对F.candida的急性毒性LC50值为2 086.93 mg·kg~(-1),慢性毒性的繁殖抑制(28 d)EC50值为224.95 mg·kg~(-1)。此外,Cd对跳虫回避行为影响的EC50(48 h)为721.26 mg·kg~(-1)。可以看出,慢性毒性的EC50值与Cd对回避行为影响的EC50值近似,但远低于急性毒性LC50值。因此,跳虫F.candida的回避行为和繁殖率对Cd污染土壤有较高的灵敏度,可用来表征土壤中Cd的生态毒性。     

Impact of training programs on decision-making and situation awareness of trainee watch officers

This paper examines the impact of training programs on the ability of trainee watch officers to make decisions in collision avoidance situations.It draws on previous studies which have shown that experts are able to manage complex situations in an acceptable way. However, observations of students on simulators have revealed that many of them are unable to manage such situations or even to recall their main features. It is therefore necessary to identify new training tools that will give trainees the capacity to assess a situation quickly and accurately, and to perform satisfactory actions. These would be in addition to formal regulations.Exercises were designed to evaluate the impact of such tools on the decision-making process of trainees. The impact of the type of navigation experienced by trainees during their on-the-job training was also evaluated.Results showed that decision-making exercises did tend to improve the trainees’ capacity to analyse a complex situation; however, they did not have a clear impact on the manoeuvre performed. On the contrary, there was an obvious difference between the trainees who experienced complex avoidance situations during their on-the-job training period and those who did not.At a time where ship-owners are looking to reduce the length of the “on-the-job” training period, these results point to its vital importance.     

A quantitative integrated assessment of pollution prevention achieved by Integrated Pollution Prevention Control licensing

This paper presents an innovative, quantitative assessment of pollution avoidance attributable to environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing, using Ireland's pharmaceutical-manufacturing sector as a case study. Emissions data reported by pharmaceutical installations were aggregated into a pollution trend using an Environmental Emissions Index (EEI) based on Lifecycle Assessment methodologies. Complete sectoral emissions data from 2001 to 2007 were extrapolated back to 1995, based on available data. Production volume data were used to derive a sectoral production index, and determine ‘no-improvement’ emission trends, whilst questionnaire responses from 20 industry representatives were used to quantify the contribution of integrated licensing to emission avoidance relative to these trends. Between 2001 and 2007, there was a 40% absolute reduction in direct pollution from 27 core installations, and 45% pollution avoidance relative to hypothetical ‘no-improvement’ pollution. It was estimated that environmental regulation avoided 20% of ‘no-improvement’ pollution, in addition to 25% avoidance under business-as-usual. For specific emissions, avoidance ranged from 14% and 30 kt a^− 1 for CO₂ to 88% and 598 t a^− 1 for SO_x. Between 1995 and 2007, there was a 59% absolute reduction in direct pollution, and 76% pollution avoidance. Pollution avoidance was dominated by reductions in emissions of VOCs, SO_x and NO_x to air, and emissions of heavy metals to water. Pollution avoidance of 35% was attributed to integrated licensing, ranging from between 8% and 2.9 t a^− 1 for phosphorus emissions to water to 49% and 3143 t a^− 1 for SO_x emissions to air. Environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing has been the major driver of substantial pollution avoidance achieved by Ireland's pharmaceutical sector — through emission limit values associated with Best Available Techniques, emissions monitoring and reporting requirements, and performance targets specified in environmental management plans. This compliant sector offers a positive, but not necessarily typical, case study of IPPC effectiveness.