Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation

The ecological literature reveals considerable confusion about the meaning of validation in the context of simulation models. The confusion arises as much from semantic and philosophical considerations as from the selection of validation procedures. Validation is not a procedure for testing scientific theory or for certifying the ‘truth’ of current scientific understanding, nor is it a required activity of every modelling project. Validation means that a model is acceptable for its intended use because it meets specified performance requirements.Before validation is undertaken, (1) the purpose of the model, (2) the performance criteria, and (3) the model context must be specified. The validation process can be decomposed into several components: (1) operation, (2) theory, and (3) data. Important concepts needed to understand the model evaluation process are verification, calibration, validation, credibility, and qualification. These terms are defined in a limited technical sense applicable to the evaluation of simulation models, and not as general philosophical concepts. Different tests and standards are applied to the operational, theoretical, and data components. The operational and data components can be validated; the theoretical component cannot.The most common problem with ecological and environmental models is failure to state what the validation criteria are. Criteria must be explicitly stated because there are no universal standards for selecting what test procedures or criteria to use for validation. A test based on comparison of simulated versus observed data is generally included whenever possible. Because the objective and subjective components of validation are not mutually exclusive, disagreements over the meaning of validation can only be resolved by establishing a convention.     

胜利油田清洁生产审核中的问题及对策分析

胜利油田从2003年开展清洁生产工作，在对人员培训的基础上，在21个二级单位的基层队进行了试点，并进行了清洁生产的审核验收工作。针对存在的问题，提出5个方面的改进措施。     

上海市实施ISO14001环境管理体系标准的回顾与展望

建立ISO14001环境管理体系、开展ISO14001认证工作已在我国全面展开，如何发挥环境保护行政主管部门的作用，对深入推进ISO14001标准认证至关重要。从实施ISO14001标准，促进环境保护工作发展的角度回顾了上海市实施ISO14001环境管理体系标准的历程，探讨了上海市实施 标准的未来发展趋势，并对实施过程中出现的问题提出了对策和建议。     

产业安全文化建设途径探讨

对国际海运安全文化建设及其得失进行了全面阐述和深入剖析 ,据此提出了建设我国产业安全文化的宏观途径。指出强制性推行安全管理体系认证是安全文化建设的关键 ,宣传教育应贯穿安全文化建设的全过程 ,两者须同步进行。强调安全文化建设必须系统和有效 ,真正使人们普遍认同安全是一种生活方式而非额外负担     

环境监测分析中校准曲线应用和检验方法的探讨

本文阐述了环境监测分析中校准曲线的分类 ,拟合方法和应用范围 ,提出对拟合标准曲线可靠性检验的概念和方法。如 :相对剩余标准差 ,截距、斜率检验 ,失拟方差检验等 ,这些方法在实际监测分析中具有一定的应用价值     

Performance evaluation of NOAA-EPA developmental aerosol forecasts

To aid air quality model development and assess air quality forecasts, the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) provided categorical verification metrics for developmental aerosol predictions. The National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) generated 48 h (of) gridded hourly developmental predictions for the lower 48 states (CONUS) domain in 12 km horizontal spacing. The NAQFC uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model with EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to produce predictions of ground level aerosol concentrations. We used bilinear interpolation to calculate predicted daily maximum values at the location of the observation sites. We compared these interpolated predicted values to the observed daily maximum to produce 2 × 2 contingency tables, with a threshold of 40 μg/m³ during the months of March–August, 2007. The model showed some degree of skill in predicting aerosol exceedances. These results are preliminary as the NAQFC model for aerosol prediction is in the developmental stage. A more comprehensive performance evaluation will be accomplished in 2008, when more data become available. Our verification metrics included categorical analyses for Fraction Correct (FC) or percent correct (FC × 100), Threat Score (TS) or Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), and the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and mean algebraic error or bias, where bias is forecast minus observation. Graphic products included weekly statistics for the CONUS displayed in the form of bar charts, scatterplots, and graphs. In addition, we split the CONUS into six geographic regions and provided regional statistics on a monthly basis. MDL produced spatial maps of daily 1-h maximum predicted aerosol values overlaid with the corresponding point observations. MDL also provided spatial maps of the daily maximum of the 24-h running average. We derived the 24-h running average from the 1-h average predicted aerosol values and observations.     

实验室认可中电热恒温鼓风干燥箱的期间核查

本文以DHG-9140A电热恒温鼓风干燥箱为说明对象,按照《检测和校准实验室能力的通用要求》的相关规定,介绍了实验室认可中电热恒温鼓风干燥箱的期间核查操作规程及结果,为实验室认可中期间核查的开展提供了一定的依据。     

人工神经网络法在大气污染预报中的应用

以鞍山市为例,应用人工神经网络方法,模拟人脑的思维方式,建立了大气污染物浓度的神经网络预报模型,并将计算结果与监测值进行了对比验证,计算结果表明,BP模型应用于大气污染物浓度预报具有较高的预报精度。     

Rockburst hazard determination by using computed tomography technology in deep workface

The rockburst in mines results from the dynamic load coupled with static one in coal seams around workface zones, so it is essential to learn the stress distribution of the coal and surrounding rock for determination of rockburst risk areas. The relationship between the elastic wave velocity and stress applied on coal sample was investigated systematically by laboratory testing, theoretically analysis, as well as on-site observation, and a positive correlation between them under uniaxial compression was put forward. Furthermore, it is drawn that the anomaly of elastic wave velocity reflects the stress changes: the positive anomaly ascertains the stress concentration while the negative anomaly estimates the mining destress and weaken degree, and corresponding assessment criterions and parameters were established respectively. The hazard areas and degree of an island longwall face 16302C were forecasted before coal winning based on the elastic wave anomaly distribution rules using active tremor velocity inversion, monitoring results of mining shocks during exploitation indicate that the consistency between locations of big tremors and where forecasted by computed tomography (CT) exceed 80%. The successful application of this technology achieved remarkable economic and social benefits for disaster control in rockburst mines.     

生物接触氧化处理槽内水流混掺特性的研究

对生物接触氧化处理槽内水流的混掺特性进行了分析，推导提出了水流完全混掺的判断条件，短流水量及处理槽长度的计算式，并用试验值和一实际工程现场测试结果进行了验证，结果表明，计算式与实例结果吻合较好。