Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.     

北京水灾及其社会影响

北京在历史上曾发生多次重大水灾,给人民生命财产、城市建设及社会安定带来了巨大影响。形成水灾的主要因素是永定河决口泛溢和区域雨涝。现从大量的历史文献中列举几个实例,来看水灾的严重程度及其影响后果。     

圩区建设对城市水环境的影响及对策

解决好圩区建设问题,有利于减轻洪涝灾害,促进水环境保护,实现水生态恢复。分析圩区建设的必要性,以及对水环境的负面影响,提出了圩区建设的原则和策略,防洪规划和水环境保护规划必须统筹兼顾,圩区建设工程与水环境建设工程应该相互利用,在提高全市防洪能力同时,保护好圩内水质和生态环境,改善城市水环境。     

Community response to hazard information

The impact of flood hazard information on public acceptance of a selected flood mitigation strategy was assessed by an analysis of the content of newspaper reports of community reaction and letters to the editor. The impact of personal delivery of a flood hazard map on individual perception of risk and attitude to such information was assessed using personal interviews. The results indicated that media coverage of the flood hazard information reduced public criticism of the works. This result must be partially attributable to the dramatic style of media coverage and the fact that the media only emphasized the positive value of the works. The interview demonstrated that personal delivery of the information raised perception of risk, improved comprehension of flood risk, had no impact on acceptability of risk but discouraged some respondents from seeking such information in the future. Factors to explain the last negative change were identified to be the format of the map sheet and low salience of flood hazard. On the basis of all results, methods to improve community response to hazard information are provided.     

洪水灾害评估体系研究

从系统论的观点出发，提出了洪水灾害系统的概念，并结合洪水灾害评估的特点，设计了洪水灾害评估体系的总体框架。     

神经网络及其在水库调洪演算中的应用

结合洪水灾害管理的特点建立了水库调洪演算的人工神经网络模型，阐述了其基本原理及算法，并结合某水库调洪演算实例说明了其应用。     

从泗州城的湮灭看防灾

介绍了古代泗州城的沿革，分析了它被淹没的原因，并提出了该事件对今后防灾的启示。     

旱涝灾害的一些基本问题初探

首先就旱涝灾害对人类的作用进行了分析，认为它影响范围最大，危害程度最深．其次．对旱涝灾害的成因、确定旱涝灾害的定量指标以及评估旱涝灾害的指标体系进行分析探讨；最后对国内防御旱涝灾害的能力做了总体评价，并对其所采取的预防，救抗灾措施等进行分析．     

用灰色模型预测我国铁路水害发展趋势

根据近１５ａ来我国铁路水害年断道时间和断道次数的数据特点，将不同程度水害年分为三个等级。在此基础上，建立了铁路水害的灰色预测模型。并用此模型预测了近期铁路水害大小和远期的发展趋势。这对于我国铁路水害防治的宏观决策具有指导意义。     

淮河上游洪水灾害可公度信息系预测

可公度信息系是一种源于天文学的预测方法，其实质是寻求事物发生的经验关系。本文应用此法对淮河上游的洪水灾害进行了预测分析，结果表明淮河上游洪水灾害发生具有２ａ、４ａ、５ａ、７ａ、９ａ、１１ａ、１９ａ及７１ａ等多种周期，并在１９９７年、２０００年等年份的前后有可能发生大洪水。