1954、1998年长江两次特大洪灾形成原因及防治对策初探

１９９８ 年长江中下游地区发生的特大洪水具有洪水水位高、洪量大、历时长的特点， 这次洪水灾害造成的直接经济损失超过了２ ０００ 亿元。本文在长江上中游地区降水量总量及强度超常、长江上中下游洪水遭遇严重、分洪区没能发挥作用等洪灾形成主要原因进行分析的基础上， 提出了加大对影响长江流域灾变性气候的研究、调整江湖水系结构、加强区域间防洪的协调和协作等对策建议。

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE CAUSES AND COUNTERMEASURES OF THE 1954 AND 1998 EXTRAORDINARY YANGTZE RIVER FLOODS

A basin wide severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River valley in 1998. It is characterized high water level, large flood volume and long lasting. The flood caused a direct economic loss of more than 200 billion yuan. The analysis shows that main causes of the flood are the abnormal total precipitation and intensity in upper and middle reaches, the severe floods along mid lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the inefficient function of the flood division area. On the basis of the above mentioned causes, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions, such as strengthening the disaster research, improving the accuracy of flood forecast; modifying river system and land use structure along the Yangtze River; and strengthening the coordination and cooperation among the regions concerned.