| 北京市生活垃圾填埋场产甲烷不确定性定量评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈操操,刘春兰,李铮,王海华,张妍,王璐.北京市生活垃圾填埋场产甲烷不确定性定量评估[J].环境科学,2012,33(1):208-215. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈操操 刘春兰 李铮 王海华 张妍 王璐 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市环境保护科学研究院,北京 100037;北京市环境保护科学研究院,北京 100037;北京市环境保护科学研究院,北京 100037;北京市环境保护科学研究院,北京 100037;清华大学环境学院,北京 100084;北京市可持续发展科技促进中心,北京 100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41001380); 北京市科技新星计划项目(2010B023); 北京市科技计划项目(Z08000602620801) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高北京市生活垃圾填埋场产CH4评估精度,联合FOD模型和Monte Carlo方法,依靠本地和国家数据及专家经验,对模型进行不确定性识别和敏感性分析,量化各参数对模型输出结果的影响.结果表明,2008年北京市因填埋产CH4量95%的概率分布范围为(11.80～19.76)×104t.a-1,均值为15.58×104t.a-1,排放的不确定范围为-24.26%～26.83%.FOD模型中甲烷修正因子MCF(2000年后)对2008年排放结果的影响最大,其结果不确定性的贡献率为41.4%.研究提高了北京市生活垃圾填埋场CH4排放量评估精度和质量,为指导填埋场温室气体清单改进和数据收集提供科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性分析 Monte Carlo FOD模型 生活垃圾填埋场 温室气体 甲烷 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/4/12 0:00:00 |
Uncertainty Analysis for Evaluating Methane Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Landfill in Beijing |
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| CHEN Cao-cao,LIU Chun-lan,LI Zheng,WANG Hai-hu,ZHANG Yan and WANG Lu.Uncertainty Analysis for Evaluating Methane Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Landfill in Beijing[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Science,2012,33(1):208-215. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Cao-cao LIU Chun-lan LI Zheng WANG Hai-hu ZHANG Yan and WANG Lu |
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| Institution: | Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100037, China;Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100037, China;Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100037, China;Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100037, China;School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Beijing Sustainable Development Center, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the accurate evaluation of CH4emissions from municipal solid waste landfill in Beijing, FOD-model and Monte Carlo method were conducted. Based on local data, national data and experts' experience, the uncertainty of FOD-model and parameters' sensitivity analysis were identified. And we quantified effect of various parameters on model output. The results showed that 95% probability distribution range of CH4 emission from landfill was (11.8-19.76)×104 t·a-1 in Beijing. The mean value was 15.58×104 t·a-1 with uncertainty range of -24.26%-26.83%. Among all the parameters MCF(after 2000) showed the greatest impact on landfill CH4 emission in 2008, and its contribution to the uncertainty of emission result was 41.4%. This research can improve the assessment accuracy and quality on CH4 emission from municipal solid waste landfill in Beijing, as providing scientific basis to improve the landfill greenhouse gas inventory and data collection. |
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| Keywords: | uncertainty analysis Monte Carlo FOD model municipal solid waste landfill greenhouse gas methane |
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