基于随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型的地下水环境健康风险评价研究

水环境健康风险评价在参数确定、暴露评估与风险表征过程中存在着不确定性因素,利用随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型（SS-TFN模型）进行水环境健康风险评价,降低了评价过程中人为因素的影响,有效提高评价结果的可靠性和科学性.本文将SS-TFN模型应用于盘锦市六个饮用水源地致癌物质经饮水途径的地下水环境健康风险评价中,结果表明：盘锦市六个饮用水源地的总致癌风险均超过致癌年风险率控制限值（1.0＆#215;10-5）;致癌物质造成的平均个人致癌年风险率由高到低排序：Cr6＋＞ As＞ Cd.盘锦市六个饮用水源地SS-TFN计算结果收敛时总的平均个人致癌年风险由高到低排列：大洼水源＞兴南水源＞兴一水源＞盘东水源＞高升水源＞石山水源.

Health Risk Assessment of Groundwater Environment based on Coupling Model of Stochastic Simulation and Triangle Fuzzy Number

There are all kinds of uncertainty factors in the process of parameter determination, exposure assessment and risk characterization for health risk assessment of water environment. The coupling model of stochastic simulation and triangle fuzzy number（ SS -TFN model） was used to assess the health risk of water environment. This model can reduce the influence of artifi- cial factors in the evaluation process and improve the reliability and scientificity of evaluation results. In this paper, SS - TFN model was applied in health risk assessment of groundwater environment and health risks of carcinogens by drinking water ap- proach in six sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin were calculated. The results showed that the total carcinogenic risks in six sources of drinking groundwater were more than the risk control limit （ 1.0×10-5 ） ; The risk sort sequence of carcinogens was Cr6 ＋ 〉 As 〉 Cd. The average individual carcinogenic risk of six sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin decreased in the following order： Dawa 〉 Xingnan 〉 Xingyi 〉 Pandong 〉 Gaosheng 〉 Shishan.