基于空间回归模型的中国碳排放空间差异模拟

以中国碳排放数据库的多年分省碳排放数据为基础,选取植被指数NDVI、夜间灯光影像DMSP-OLS、生产总值、工业总产值和人口数5项指标,采用1 km×1 km格网,运用空间滞后回归模型对中国2000年和2013年的碳排放进行时空分布模拟,并对空间模拟结果进行误差分析及纠正,获得地均碳排放强度的空间分布图,以弥补传统碳排放统计空间展示效果差、空间分辨率低等缺陷.结果发现,中国碳排放的空间分布格局差异显著,地均碳排放强度分布呈现由东部地区向中西部地区逐渐递减的阶梯状区域分布差异,东部地区的碳排放高值聚集区域大致呈现面状聚集分布特征,区域之间碳排放的差异较小,西部省会城市、工矿城市与农村地区碳排放量差异显著.2013年的地均碳排放强度明显高于2000年,且高值区域的分布范围明显扩大,低值区域分布范围面积明显减少.

Spatial difference simulation of China's carbon emissions using spatial regression models

Accurately simulating spatial distribution of carbon emission is vitally important to make policies for reducing carbon emission (CE) and provide basic outlines to develop low carbon economy and constitute low carbon development programming in the future. Five influential factors of CE were selected to derive the CE intensity per unit area,which were vegetation index (NDVI),global steady night lighting data (DMSP-OLS),GDP,industrial gross domestic product and population data. The spatial leg models were established to simulate the spatial distribution of China''s CE with 1 km×1 km grids,based on the data of the provincial CE in China Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEAD). The accuracy of the models was tested using error analysis,and the predicted value is corrected according to provincial statistics of CE. Spatial distribution of China''s CE in 2000 and 2013 were examined,and the spatial-temporal difference of CE was analyzed. The gridding results of CE can make up the shortcoming of low spatial resolution of traditional statistical data,and describe the spatial feature and real distribution of CE with more details. Result showed that there were several distinct distribution characteristics for the CE intensity per unit land area,which were as follows:there were distinct regional differences distribution characteristics,which mainly showed that it became smaller from the eastern China to the central and western China. The high value area of CE in the eastern coastal area in the whole presents the characteristics of widespread aggregated distribution,and the spatial difference of CE among regions is small. In the western provinces,there are significant differences in CE among the capital cities,industrial and mining cities and rural areas. Therefore,the government should enact reasonable carbon reduction targets in different region.The intensity of CE in 2013 was obviously greater than that in 2000.