| 合肥市生活垃圾产量多模型预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 汪平生,陈俊,陈召明,王磊,卫新来,金杰.合肥市生活垃圾产量多模型预测与分析[J].环境监测管理与技术,2022,34(4):64-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汪平生 陈俊 陈召明 王磊 卫新来 金杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥学院生物食品与环境学院；污水净化与生态修复材料安徽省重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划“长三角典型流域多源有机固废集约化处置集成示范”基金项目资助(2020YFC1908601；2020YFC1908602) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对合肥市生活垃圾产量现状，通过建立时间序列(ARIMA)、多元线性回归(MLR)、灰色系统GM(1,1)和反向传播神经网络(BPNN)模型对历史数据进行验证比较分析。结果表明，ARIMA(0,1,2)模型的MAPE、MAE、RMSE、NRMSE分别为1.879%、2.240、2.781、0.021，其精度最高、效果最好，为合肥市生活垃圾产量的最佳预测模型。用该模型预测合肥市2021—2025年的城市生活垃圾产量，结果显示生活垃圾产生量为218.89万t～290.71万t。
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| 关 键 词： | 生活垃圾 产量 预测模型 对比分析 合肥市 |
Multi-model Prediction and Analysis of Domestic Waste Output in Hefei |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the current status of domestic waste output in Hefei, the historical data was verified and compared by establishing time series (ARIMA), multiple linear regression (MLR), grey system GM(1,1) and back propagation neural network (BPNN) models. The results showed that the MAPE, MAE, RMSE, and NRMSE of ARIMA (0,1,2) model were 1.879%, 2.240, 2.781, and 0.021, respectively. The model had the highest accuracy and the best effect, and was the best for domestic waste output prediction in Hefei. The model was used to predict the domestic waste output in Hefei from 2021 to 2025, and the results were from 2.188 9 to 2.907 1 million tons. |
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| Keywords: | Domestic waste Output Prediction model Comparative analysis Hefei |
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