气候变化对长三角臭氧污染影响的数值模拟研究

目的研究气候变化对污染物浓度的影响,进而了解其对环境空气质量的影响。方法利用WRF-Chem模拟2014年1月、7月(代表现在)和2050年1月、7月(未来)长三角地区的气象要素和空气质量的数据,研究气候变化对该区域臭氧浓度的影响。结果在夏季,未来(2050年7月)与现在相比(2014年7月),整个长三角区域的臭氧浓度变化幅度较小,约为-0.09×10~(-9),且呈现出北部增加,南部减少的趋势,在长三角北部的陆地地区,臭氧浓度增加达到极大值(15.0×10~(-9))。在冬季,与2014年1月的数据比较,未来(2050年1月)整个长三角地区臭氧比现在降低约7.9%,其中在上海以东洋面上减少达到极值(-25.1%)。结论在夏季,导致长三角北部地区臭氧浓度升高的主要原因是太阳辐射量的增加、VOC和NOx浓度的升高、边界层高度的降低以及增强南风的输送有关。长三角南部地区臭氧浓度的减少,主要原因是其太阳辐射的减少以及风速的增加。在冬季,在南通、上海以东洋面上臭氧减少的幅度较大,这与温度的降低、辐射的减少以及NOx浓度的增加有关。长三角南部区域的臭氧浓度有所增加,这与该区域太阳辐射的增加以及区域范围内的输送有关。在制定臭氧控制策略时,应该考虑未来气候变化的影响。

Numerical Modeling of Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Objective To study effect of climate change on concentration of pollutants and air quality of environment. Methods The meteorological elements and air quality of the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) in January, July of 2014 (present) and 2050 (future) were simulated with WRF-Chem to research influences of climate change on the ozone concentration of the region. Results By comparing the modeling results for July 2014 with those for July 2050, we found that the concentration of ozone in YRD had little change, about -0.09 ppb. It increased in the north and decreased in the south. The maximum increment of ozone concentration occurred in the north of YRD, with the value of 15.0 ppb. Compared with the data for January in 2014, the ozone concentration in the entire YRD reduced 7.9% in January 2050. The maximum decrease of ozone concentration occurred in the east of Shanghai, with the value of -25.1%. Conclusion For the summer, the main reasons causing the increase of ozone concentration in YRD include the increase of solar radiation, NOx concentration and PBLH and the transportation of strengthen south wind. However, the reduction of O3 concentration in the south of YRD is due to the reduction of solar radiation and the increase of wind speed. For the winter, the ozone concentration reduces a lot in the east of Shanghai and Nantong, which is related with the reduction of temperature and solar radiation and the increase of NOx and VOC concentration. However, ozone concentration increases in the south. This phenomenon is related to the increase of solar radiation and the regional transportation. The effect of climate change should be considered when making the pollution control countermeasure.