北京市气温与黑碳和PM2.5对疾病死亡影响的交互效应

通过收集北京市2010~2016年逐日呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡数据、污染物（BC、PM_2.5、SO₂、O₃和NO₂）日均浓度资料以及同期的气象资料，采用广义相加模型（GAMs）中的主效应模型、非参数二元响应模型和温度分层模型探讨了北京市气温、PM_2.5和BC单效应，以及气温与PM_2.5和BC交互作用分别对呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响.单效应分析结果表明，气温与两种疾病死亡人数的累计暴露-反应关系均呈“J”型分布特征，最适温度为24℃；累计滞后一天情况下PM_2.5和BC的健康效应均最显著，此时PM_2.5和BC浓度每升高四分位间距（IQR），呼吸系统疾病死亡人数超额增加百分比（ER）分别为2.21%和1.80%，心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为2.02%和1.48%.交互作用的研究结果表明，高温与高浓度的PM_2.5（或BC）对疾病死亡的影响存在协同效应，且高温条件下BC对疾病死亡影响的健康风险大于PM_2.5，当气温大于24℃时，BC和PM_2.5浓度每升高IQR对应的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数ER分别为6.22%和6.17%，心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为5.01%和3.97%.虽然BC只占PM_2.5的一部分，但BC对人群健康的影响不容忽视，应该引起足够的重视.

Interaction effects between ambient temperature and black carbon and PM2.5 on mortality in Beijing

Daily death data of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases during 2010~2016, daily average air pollutants (including black carbonBC], particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 2.5PM_2.5], sulfur dioxideSO₂], ozoneO₃], and nitrogen dioxideNO₂]) and meteorological data during the same period in Beijing were collected. Three semi-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), including an independent model, a nonparametric bivariate response surface model, and a stratification parametric model, were adopted to explore the adverse health effects of temperature, different-sized particles (BC and PM_2.5) and the synergistic effects between temperature and particles on respiratory and cardiovascular system diseases, respectively. The results of single-effect studies showed that the exposure-response relationships between ambient temperature and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases both exhibited "J" type and the most comfortable temperature is 24℃. The health risks were strongest between the current and previous day (lag01) average concentrations of BC and PM_2.5 (Lag01). An interquartile range (IQR) increments in BC (4.11μg/m³) and PM_2.5 (62.4μg/m³) were associated with 1.80% and 2.21% increase in respiratory mortality and 1.48% and 2.02% increases in cardiovascular mortality, respectively. The combined effects between particles and temperature on human health suggested that the mortality reach the maximum when high temperature and high mass concentrations of PM (BC and PM_2.5) coexisted. Furthermore, the modulating effects of temperature on BC-mortality relationship becoming more pronounced under high temperature conditions than that on PM_2.5-mortality relationships with temperature cutoff increasing. IQR increments in BC and PM_2.5 were associated with 6.96% and 6.50% increases in respiratory mortality and 6.14% and 4.54% increases in cardiovascular mortality when temperature>26℃. We should pay more attention to the adverse effect of BC on human health in the future.