参数选取对畜禽养殖业大气氨排放的影响:以长三角地区为例

氨对于大气细颗粒物中二次无机盐的生成具有十分重要的作用,近年来引起了国内外学者的高度关注.相对准确地定量氨排放对于深入研究二次气溶胶的理化过程、实现较好的数值模拟性能,以及开展氨排放精细化管控具有极为重要的科学意义和现实意义.已有研究表明,农业源是大气氨的主要排放源,其中,畜禽养殖业的氨排放占比最大.已有针对畜禽养殖业氨排放的研究大多采用排放系数法建立氨排放清单,然而,不同参数的选取会对研究结果造成较大差异.本文从活动水平和排放系数选取上做出了多种假设,构建了8种情景,以2017年为基准年,分别计算了长三角地区畜禽养殖业大气氨排放.结果表明,选取不同的活动水平对清单估算结果的影响最大,选取出栏量计算的结果较选取存栏量高出27.6%～34.1%.选取更细致的月均温的计算结果高出以年均温结果0.3～0.4万t.此外,清单的时空分布特征也与该两项参数密切相关,以存栏量进行估算的结果中,舟山地区排放强度最低,淮南市最高;以出栏量进行估算的结果中,丽水排放强度最低,南京最高.以月均温度估算情景中将获得更准确的月排放廓线,全年中5～9月排放量最高,冬季(12、 1和2月)排放量最小.

Impact of Parameterization on the Estimation of Ammonia Emissions:A Case Study over the Yangtze River Delta

Atmospheric ammonia plays an important role in the formation of secondary inorganic composition of PM_2.5, which has attracted a high level of attention from researchers both in China and abroad. Quantifying ammonia emissions is of great scientific significance regarding research on the formation of secondary aerosol, realizing better model performance, and control of ammonia emissions. Previous studies have shown that agricultural activities are the dominant source of atmospheric ammonia, of which livestock and poultry farming contribute the most. Existing studies on estimating ammonia emissions from livestock and poultry farming activities are mostly based on emission factors and activities. However, the choice of different emission activities could lead to large differences in estimated ammonia emissions. This study makes a variety of assumptions from the selection of activity levels (volume vs. inventory) and emission coefficients (monthly vs. annual average temperature), and establishes eight scenarios from which to calculate atmospheric ammonia emissions from livestock and poultry farming in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2017. The results show that selection of different activity levels has the greatest impact on estimated ammonia emissions; estimation based on volume is higher than that based on inventory by 27.6%-34.1%. Calculation based on a more detailed monthly average temperature is higher than using average annual temperature by 3000 to 4000 tons per year. In addition, the spatial and temporal distributions of the ammonia emissions are also closely related to the choice of volume vs. inventory and the choice of monthly average temperature vs. annual average temperature. When using inventory as the emission activity, Zhoushan (Zhejiang Province) has the lowest ammonia emissions, while Huainan (Anhui Province) has the highest. In contrast, when volume is used, Lishui (Zhejiang Province) has the lowest ammonia emissions and Nanjing (Jiangsu Province) has the highest. Emissions calculations based on monthly average temperature are supposed to be more representative than those based on annual average temperature, with the highest emissions from May to September and the lowest in the winter (December, January, and February).