珠江三角洲水位演变分析

全球气候变暖导致的海平面加速上升已是不争的事实,其长期累积的结果将给沿海地区造成巨大威胁。利用层次聚类分析法、灰关联法、相关分析法等重点分析了海平面上升对珠江三角洲水位的影响。结果显示：海平面上升对珠江三角洲代表站的年平均水位和年最低水位的影响大于对年最高水位的影响;海平面上升对马口站和三水站水位的影响小于河床下切和径流的影响;海平面上升对珠江河口区水位的影响由三角洲深处向口门区有增强趋势。掌握海平面上升对水位的影响规律,对于河口地区的防灾减灾和水资源的合理开发利用具有重要的指导意义。

Analysis on evolution of water level in Pearl River Delta,China

The fact that global warming causes the rise of sea level is indisputable,which in turn poses a serious threat to the coast areas as time goes on.Therefore,it is significant to study the impact regulation of sea-level rise on water level for the aim of preventing and mitigating natural hazards as well as the full use of water resources.In this paper,we employ the hierarchical clustering analysis,gray correlation method and correlation analysis to analyse the impact of sea level rising on water level ofn Pearl River Delta.The results shows：（1） in terms of water level,the rise of sea level has greater impact on the annual average water level and the annual lowest level than on the annual maximum water level for all the investigated stations in the Pearl River Delta;（2） the impact of the rise of sea level on the water levels of Makou hydrological station and Sanshui hydrological station is less than the impact caused by the cut of the riverbed and by run-off;（3） the impact of sea-level rise on water level of the Pearl River estuary shows an increasing trend from the internal delta to the estuary.