江苏省养老服务业区域差异、空间集聚及驱动因素研究

推动养老服务业区域协调发展是实现养老服务业高质量发展的基础。运用综合指标评价法、泰尔指数及ESDA等方法,对2005～2015年江苏省县域养老服务业时空演变格局和空间关联性进行分析,并采用空间计量模型探讨其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)江苏省养老服务业发展水平总体较低且不均衡,呈现"南高北低"的显著差异;(2)区域差异呈"扩大-缩小-扩大-缩小"的"M"字型演变趋势,区域内差异大于区域间差异;(3)江苏省不同县域间养老服务业空间关联性显著为正,出现了发展水平相似县域相邻分布的空间集聚效应,空间集聚格局呈现稳态的南北差异;(4)人口老龄化、经济发展水平、城镇化水平、市场力量、产业结构、养老保障水平以及政府政策等多种因素对江苏省养老服务业发展格局和区域差异产生了不同程度的影响。

Research on Regional Differences,Spatial Agglomeration and Driving Factors of Elderly Care Service Industry in Jiangsu Province

Abstract：To promote the regional coordinated development of elderly care service industry is the basis for achieving its high-quality development. Based on the method of comprehensive index evaluation，Theil index and ESDA，this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution and spatial correlation of the elderly care service industry in Jiangsu Province within 2005-2015，and explores the driving factors of the development of Jiangsu’s elderly care service industry using spatial econometrics. Results shows that，（1）The development level of the elderly care service industry in Jiangsu Province is generally low and unbalanced，showing a significant difference of ‘high in the south and low in the north’.（2）The regional differences show a Mshaped evolution trend of ‘expansion-reduction-expansion-reduction’，and intra-regional differences are greater than inter-regional differences.（3）The development of elderly care service industry among different counties in Jiangsu Province has positive significant spatial autocorrelation，and the development level of adjacent county has spatial distribution of similar agglomeration effect. The spatial agglomeration pattern presents a steady north-south difference.（4）Various factors such as population aging，economic development level，urbanization level，market power，industrial structure，pension security level and government policies have exerted different degrees on the development and regional differences of the elderly care service industry in Jiangsu Province.