An economic framework for assessing the impact of injuries in professional football

The process of risk management, which is used throughout industry and commerce, involves identifying work activities and hazards and estimating, evaluating and controlling the associated risks. Within professional football, injury rates are several orders of magnitude higher than those reported in other occupations. This sector, therefore, provides an ideal organisational setting for developing and testing theories of health and safety management. A major risk for clubs arises from players being unavailable for selection through injury, with the possible effect that this may have on the clubs’ playing and financial performances. A statistically based risk management model, which utilised four relationships involving the parameters of team-quality, team-performance, club-turnover and club-salary, was developed. The model was based on data from 91 league clubs in English professional football over the seasons 1993/1994–1997/1998. Significant (P<0.01) strong (r=0.80–0.97) correlations were obtained for four log-log relationships between the four parameters. The model, which incorporated a player quality variable, has been demonstrated to describe and assess the impact of players’ injuries on clubs’ playing and financial performances. It is proposed that the model could therefore be used as a basis for cost-benefit analyses of injury prevention strategies in professional football. The results presented support earlier reports, which describe the impact of accidents to employees on the financial performance of their employers. Similar economic frameworks may also be applicable within other organisational settings for assessing the costs of accidents and for use in cost benefit analyses.     

有毒重气泄漏安全距离数值方法

以有毒重气硫化氢气体为对象,利用非正常排放扩散模型计算气体泄漏时地表扩散浓度场,对比研究两种极端大气稳定度条件下浓度场分布规律和特征,确定了各自情况下的安全距离。研究结果表明,大气稳定度对H2S扩散后果影响大,F条件下的浓度值相对较大但其扩散范围较小;该模型能定量地描述气体扩散地面浓度分布场,能快捷和科学地预测浓度和源强、风速、大气稳定度以及时间空间等的关系。笔者所用的方法克服了现实情况中安全距离设定单一的弊端,对有毒重气泄漏安全规划等有指导作用。     

性能化设计思想在化工设施布局安全设计中的应用

指令性规范是目前化工设施平面布局安全设计的主要依据,但其在应用中存在着条款僵化、安全理论基础不全面、可拓展性不明确等问题。本文将性能化设计思想引入到化工企业平面布局安全设计中,初步提出了一种包含危险辨识、性能化目标确定、后果评估及安全设施效用评估等主要组成部分的基于性能化设计思想的平面布局安全设计体系。对体系中最重要的部分—性能化目标确定进行了重点分析,将化工设施布局安全设计分为装置内设备之间的位置设计、厂区内装置区之间的位置设计以及厂区与外部单位之间的位置设计三个级别,从工艺关联性等角度对各级别布局设计中事故场景选择及设施可接受受损水平进行分析,并提出了通过匹配事故场景和设施可接受受损水平来确定性能化目标的方法。     

紧急避险设施内一氧化碳气体吸附性能研究

紧急避险设施作为灾变情况下为井下人员提供安全避险的密闭空间,要求能够对空间内部的有毒有害气体进行及时处理。针对井下密闭空间内部一氧化碳气体的吸附处理问题,采用北京科技大学避险技术研究中心的地面模拟救生舱作为实验平台,以实验为基本手段,对两种药剂A、B在不同药剂量、风量的情况下进行去除效率的对比实验,并测定环境湿度对药剂性能的影响,确定一氧化碳药剂的最佳吸附条件,以达到提高去除效率的目的。最终得出药剂A以全风量条件下4kg时吸附效果为最佳,药剂B以全风量条件下8kg时吸附效果为最佳,湿度对一氧化碳药剂的吸附效率有显著影响,需配合干燥剂使用。     

煤与瓦斯共采在错层位巷道布置中的机理研究及应用构想

为了完善现有煤与瓦斯共采技术,创新煤与瓦斯共采方法,对错层位巷道布置下的煤与瓦斯共采系统展开研究,利用相似模拟试验,分析错层位巷道布置覆岩运动情况,预测其开采围岩裂隙发育和瓦斯运移形式,提出了创新煤与瓦斯共采技术构想。研究结果表明:采空区覆岩三带高度随接续工作面的增加而增大,相邻采空区垮落矸石压实区呈现“O-L-O”形变化,多个相邻采空区覆岩出现大“O”形圈裂隙带;相邻采空区内瓦斯可实现相互运移,大“O”形圈裂隙带内赋存大量瓦斯气体;研究提出了地面钻井抽采瓦斯、走向高位瓦斯抽采巷和外错尾巷穿层钻孔3种煤与瓦斯共采技术,比传统巷道布置情况下的煤与瓦斯共采技术在安全、经济等方面更具优势。     

Insight into the safety distance of ground and underground installations in typical petrochemical plants

Petrochemical plants are continuously turning into large-size corporations, the installations of facilities show a developing trend from ground to underground because of the difference in land using rate. In this regard, the safety distance of petrochemical equipment buried in both ground and underground cases were investigated based on risk assessment. As a case study, gasoline tank and LPG tank set on the ground and underground are singled out to compare the risks involved. The research showed that the setting case of installation had a great influence on safety distance. Two cases have 80% reduction of equivalent safety distance compared with the rest of the cases. It was found that when the gasoline storage tank was placed underground alone, the PLL value decreased by 36.7%. Only LPG tank was placed underground, and the PLL decreased by 6.33%, and the gasoline and LPG storage tanks were placed underground simultaneously, the PLL value declined by 42.3%. Thus, the layout of plants could be further optimized, which can greatly improve the performances of land use efficiency and safety. In addition, this paper, the selection of embedding methods and the sensitivity of underground case to overpressure was resumed from two aspects: soil properties and burial depth. For the soil properties, it was found that the water saturated sandy soil with high air content and the low density unsaturated sandy soil had better effects on weakening overpressure. Such properties are particularly beneficial to reducing the occurrence rate of accidents. In terms of burial depth, it can be observed that as the burial depth was changed from 0.5m to 1.1m, the value of overpressure has dropped dramatically. When the burial depth was 2m, the damage to personnel and buildings has been greatly reduced beyond 2m from the explosion center.     

采动区建筑物移动变形规律实测研究

为了研究开采影响下的建筑物移动变形规律、指导矿井安全生产,兴隆庄煤矿专门在4326综放工作面上方设立建筑物移动观测站。通过对观测资料的分析研究,获得该区条件下建筑物的移动变形规律,给出建筑物移动变形与地表移动变形之间的单因素系列关系式,并总结了不同长高比条件下建筑物变形与地表变形之间的综合关系式,获得的一些有益成果为矿区建筑物下安全采煤及采动区建筑物保护设计提供了科学依据。     

Risk-based inspection for large-scale crude oil tanks

Periodic Internal Inspection Method often results in under-inspection or over-inspection for large-scale crude oil tank. Therefore, how to determine reasonable internal inspection interval (INTII) has great significance on balancing the safe operation requirement and inspection cost for crude oil tanks. Here, RBI (risk-based inspection) technology is used to quantitatively assess the risk of crude oil tanks in an oil depot in China. The risk comparison between tank shell and bottom shows that the risk of tank depends on the risk of tank bottom. The prediction procedure of INTII for crude oil tanks is also presented. The INTII predicted by RBI method is gradually extended with the increasing of the acceptable risk level. The method to determine the acceptable risk of crude oil tanks is proposed, by which 3.54E+04 are taken as the acceptable risk of the oil depot. The safety factor of 0.8 is proposed to determine the final INTIIs for 18 crude oil tanks. The INTII requirement in China code SY/T 5921, 5-7 years, is very conservative and lower than predicted service life of tanks. The INTIIs predicted by Gumbel method are smaller than by RBI method for tanks with short INTII. Therefore, this paper recommends RBI method to predict the INTII for crude oil tanks.     

全球产品策略与其他化学品风险评估

为推动化学品风险评估在我国的开展,对全球产品策略(GPS)进行研究。通过对GPS实施流程的分析,确定实施GPS的核心是开展化学品的风险评估(简称GPS风险评估)。将GPS风险评估与欧盟《化学品注册、评估、授权和限制》(REACH)法规要求的化学品安全评估(简称REACH CSA)和我国新化学物质登记要求的新物质风险评估进行对比,从评估物质的要求、效应评估的范围和方法、暴露评估的范围和方法以及风险表征的方法 4个方面分析其共同点和差异。确定GPS风险评估是简化版的REACH CSA,新物质风险评估相当于REACH CSA中的环境风险评估部分。最后认为,开展化学品全面风险评估是国际化学品管理发展的趋势。针对实际情况,提出宜采取简化评估和优先评估的方法,在我国逐步开展化学品全面风险评估。     

基于蒙特卡洛方法的油气井管柱可靠性评估*

为提高油气井管柱服役的安全性,采用数据统计与可靠性理论评估油气井管柱可靠性。首先,识别影响管柱外载及其参数的变量,构建油气井管柱安全极限状态方程;然后,采集模型变量数据,确定变量分布与参数,形成油气井管柱可靠性数值模型;最后,通过蒙特卡洛方法计算影响管柱可靠性的关键变量和不同置信度水平下管柱剩余强度分布及安全系数取值。结果表明:目标区域油气井管柱剩余强度符合正态分布,得到不同置信度水平下管柱的可靠度,管柱的安全系数取值范围可满足管柱安全设计要求,所构建的方法可为实际生产中油气井井筒管柱安全评价提供技术支撑。     

海洋石油平台吊艇架结构安全评估

海洋石油平台吊艇架结构安全直接关系到整个平台的救逃生。为全面评估吊艇架结构承载安全性,采用ABAQUS有限元软件进行吊艇架结构动静态力学分析,并在现场进行无损探伤及功能试验。研究结果表明:吊艇架结构在2.2倍工作负荷下最大等效应力为70.81 MPa,满足强度要求;最大位移3.38 mm,变形较小;模态分析显示吊艇架结构自振频率较大;吊艇架结构关键焊缝及应力集中部位无缺陷,救生艇升降时吊艇架无明显变形及异常。通过对吊艇架结构的有限元分析及现场检验,为吊艇架的安全评估提供了一种新的思路。     

Impact analysis of multi-sensor layout on the source term estimation of hazardous gas leakage

In chemical industry, sensors are used to monitor the leakage and emission of hazardous materials that are used for hazard warning and risk assessment to ensure safety production. The traditional sensor layout designs the scheme at single-layer, and thus causes large deviations in the estimated height and accuracy of source term estimation (STE). In this study, a dual-layer layout scheme for sensors is proposed. The numerical experiments verify that the improved schemes with an equal number of sensors, as well as detection errors, are beneficial to the accuracy of the STE results. The influence of the heights of the sensors and leak source on the results of STE is studied. Results show that the dual-layer sensor scheme with adjacent intervals at high places in the potential search space is highly favorable to locate the leak, and the scheme arranged near the ground is conducive for improving the estimation accuracy of source intensity. This study also compares the STE results of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulated scenarios under different sensor schemes and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed dual-layer sensor deployment scheme with adjacent intervals under turbulence condition.     

中国民航行业可接受的安全水平研究

中国民航局提出持续安全理念,并正在制定国家航空安全方案,推动行业安全管理由目前基于规章符合性的安全监管逐渐转向规章符合性基础上的安全绩效监管,其中一项重要的工作是设定中国民航业可接受的安全水平,来衡量民航业是否满足持续改进安全的目标的要求。本文根据国际民航组织对可接受安全水平的设定指南,同时参考国外民航常用的事故指标,设计了一套中国民航行业可接受安全水平的指标体系,该指标体系包括安全评估指标、安全绩效评估指标和安全指数三层,并对该指标体系内事故率指标和事故征候率指标设定了未来10年的目标值。该指标体系及其目标值的设定不仅可作为衡量民航是否持续安全的标准,也可为航空运输企业设定自身的安全绩效考核指标提供参考。     

生产班组安全生产承载度评估体系研究

一线生产班组工作安排超能力已经成为基层供电局安全风险增加的主因。为有效规避此类风险,通过分析安全生产承载度三要素,建立起具有针对性和可操作性的承载度模型。利用统计分析工具,对工作项目涉及到的人力资源状况等历史数据进行筛选,抽取各类工作承载度指标,以确定现有人力资源配置状况下各工作项目的承载能力。安全生产承载度评估体系对于基层供电局安全生产风险评估和控制提供了一种新的发展思路。     

Risk reduction concept to provide design criteria for Emergency Systems for onshore LNG plants

The functional safety requirement is widely applied in the process plant industry in accordance with the international standards, such as IEC and ISA. The requirement is defined as safety integrity level (SIL) based on the risk reduction concept for protection layers, from original process risk to tolerable risk level. Although the standards specify both, the Prevention System and the Emergency System, as level of protection layers, the standards specify in detail only the use of the Prevention System (i.e., Safety Instrumented System (SIS)). The safety integrity level is not commonly allocated to the Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System). This is because the required risk reduction can be normally achieved by only the Prevention System (i.e., SIS and Pressure Safety Valve (PSV)). Further, the risk reduction level for the Emergency System is very difficult to be quantified by the actual SIL application (i.e., evaluated based on the single accident scenario, such as an accident from process control deviation), since the escalation scenarios after Loss of Containment (LOC) greatly vary depending on the plant design and equipment. Consequently, there are no clear criteria for evaluating the Emergency System design. This paper aims to provide the functional safety requirement (i.e., required risk reduction level based on IEC 61508 and 61511) as design criteria for the Emergency System.In order to provide clear criteria for the Emergency System evaluation, a risk reduction concept integrated with public’s perception of acceptable risk criteria is proposed and is applied to identify the required safety integrity level for the Emergency System design. Further, to verify the safety integrity levels for the Emergency Systems, the probabilistic model of the Emergency Systems was established considering each Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System) relation as the Overall Emergency System. This is because the Overall Emergency System can achieve its goal by the combined action of each individual system, including inherent safe design, such as separation distance.The proposed approach applicability was verified by conducting a case study using actual onshore Liquefied Natural Gas Plant data. Further, the design criteria for Emergency Systems for LNG plants are also evaluated by sensitivity analysis.     

500 kV单回线路与油气管道安全相对位置研究*

为解决交流输电线路对油气管道电磁日益突出的干扰问题,减少电磁干扰带来的危害,针对500 kV单回线路,在电磁暂态仿真软件中建立线路与油气管道模型,综合我国现行关于管道受电磁干扰的安全标准,计算得到线路稳态和暂态时,不同土壤电阻率下线路与管道的安全相对位置。研究结果表明:线路稳态时,随着管道长度增加需增大两者交叉跨越角度或并行安全间距,当管道交叉跨越段长度超过20 km或并行段长度超过25 km时,所需交叉跨越角度或并行安全间距趋于稳定;线路单相短路故障时,不可忽略感性耦合影响。当土壤电阻率不超过50 Ω·m,该工况并行安全间距要求小于线路稳态工况,当土壤电阻率大于等于100 Ω·m,该工况并行安全间距要求更高;线路雷击工况时,当土壤电阻率不超过50 Ω·m,线路与管道无安全间距要求,当土壤电阻率为100,200,500 Ω·m时,安全间距分别为8.9,19.8,50.9 m,且管道并行段长度对安全间距几乎无影响。研究结果可为拟建管道工程设计提供参考。     

Safety evaluation of drowsy driving advisory system: Alabama case study

Introduction: The present study discusses roles, characteristics, and safety assessment of a drowsy driving advisory (DDA) system, implemented on rural interstates of Alabama. The DDA system is an engineering countermeasure designed to reduce the likelihood of drowsy driving crashes. It consists of a series of roadside signs with warning and advisory messages for drowsy drivers. The DDA system was implemented upstream of rural rest areas based on a comprehensive crash analysis. Method: A post-implementation study was conducted three years after the DDA system implementation to assess its safety effects. An empirical bayes (EB) method along with predictive methods of the Highway Safety Manual was used in the safety assessment. To overcome the underreported issue of drowsy driving crashes in the crash analysis, the present study used a concept called, expanded definition of drowsy driving (EDD) crashes. Result: The analysis found that the DDA system could reduce total and EDD crashes by 64% and 49%, respectively. It is important to note that such huge crash reduction effects are due to a combined effect of both rest areas and the DDA system, not because of a single treatment. The safety effect of a rest area itself, without considering the effect of the DDA system, was also investigated. Results show that total and EDD crashes would increase about 12–45% and 5–33%, respectively if there is no presence of a rest area. Conclusion: Our findings conclude that the DDA system could significantly reduce both total and drowsy driving crashes when it cooperates with a rest area facility. Practical Application: The findings also provide the guidance of using the DDA system on high-speed roads as a safety countermeasure of drowsy driving crashes. Readers can find details of the DDA system used in this study with its layout, dimension, and roadside safety messages.     

基于遗传算法和场域模型的多障碍物房间人员疏散研究*

为提高多障碍物房间的人员疏散效率,利用场域元胞自动机模型并融合经典遗传算法,对2出口和4出口的多障碍物房间进行布局优化和疏散仿真研究。研究结果表明:利用遗传算法可快速寻找最优座椅布局,连排座椅设置在远离出口侧可有效减轻行人疏散时的拥堵程度;经过遗传算法优化后的座椅布局可协调疏散人群到达出口的时间,从而缓解出口通行压力,提高整体疏散效率,保障行人在大型多障碍物房间内的疏散安全。     

轨道交通信号系统安全评估方法研究

轨道交通系统作为大容量公共交通工具,其安全性直接关系到广大乘客的生命安全,信号系统作为保证列车安全、正点、快捷、舒适、高密度不间断运行的重要技术装备在轨道交通系统中有着举足轻重的地位。为了保证轨道交通系统的安全运营,应当在信号系统投入使用之前,对其安全性进行评估和认证。国外已有比较成熟的信号系统安全标准和评估体系,应当吸收其先进经验,结合国内信号系统应用的环境,积极探索适合我国国情的轨道交通信号系统安全评估方法和体系。系统的安全评估并不是一味强调绝对的安全,而更为重要的是把安全意识和新理念体现在系统设计开发全过程中。首先根据系统总体的安全要求,确定各个子系统可以容忍的故障率,进而采用相应的安全技术和方法来达到预计的故障率目标,最后通过系统安全评估来保证系统达到安全性要求。笔者就信号系统安全评估提出了相应的方案,重点介绍了编写安全证明文件的要点,最后,以哥本哈根地铁信号系统的安全评估为例,说明国外进行信号系统安全设计与评估的基本内容和步骤。     

堆载作用下埋地管道应力影响因素及失效荷载研究*

为探究地面堆载导致埋地油气管道失效的事故影响因素,通过对管道在堆载作用下的工程案例进行概化,以X70管道为研究对象,采用有限元软件建立管道在堆载作用下的三维模型,采用理论计算验证模型的可行性,开展管道应力与变形分析,探讨不同的堆载强度、管道埋设深度、下卧层土体杨氏模量、管道内压与堆载偏移距离对管道应力的影响,同时开展多因素耦合研究。研究结果表明:深埋管道会促进附加应力向两端扩散,管道中心部位以外的应力值呈现为深埋＞浅埋;当下卧层杨氏模量大于20 MPa后,管道偏于安全;内压在0~2 MPa时,可以抵消部分堆载对管道的影响,内压大于2 MPa后,管道应力整体增大,此时管道应力由内压主导;得到不同管道埋深与不同下卧层土体杨氏模量耦合工况下X70管道失效时的堆载强度。研究结果可为埋地管道在堆载作用下的安全防护问题提供参考。