探索发展与减灾协调之路——从2006年达沃斯国际减灾会议看中国发展与减灾协调对策

介绍了于2006年8月28日至9月1日在瑞士达沃斯举行的国际减灾会议的主要内容。在阅读本次会议有关论文扩展摘要集内容。以及会议上散发的大量文件、研究报告的基础上,综述了当前国际减灾研究与实践工作中,学术界、政界与企业界等在探索协调发展与减灾进程中的主要进展和发展趋向。国际减灾界当前关注的主要领域为：建立灾害与风险科学,善待与重建生态系统,关注全球环境变化与灾害的密切关系,重视利用金融、保险和再保险手段转移风险,关注女性在灾害风险管理中的作用,关注恐怖主义对社会风险的强化作用,发展灾害风险管理的信息支撑平台,重视建设高风险地区综合减灾范式。在此基础上,针对中国可持续发展战略实施过程中存在的主要问题,提出中国协调发展与减灾对策为：建立国家协调发展与减轻灾害风险的管理体制与运行机制,加强控制综合灾害风险水平的生态系统等减灾基础设施建设,发挥女性在农村地区综合灾害风险管理中的作用,建立区域综合灾害风险管理与减灾范式和加强区域综合灾害风险防范关键技术的开发,促进灾害与风险学科体系的形成。     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

HPLC-高分辨飞行时间质谱测定水中多种微囊藻毒素

水样经HLB小柱富集、净化后,采用高效液相色谱-四极杆-高分辨飞行时间质谱同时测定水样中MC-LA、MC-LF、〖JP3〗MC-LR、MC-LW、MC-LY、MC-RR、MC-YR、MC-WR等8种微囊藻毒素。试验表明,8种微囊藻毒素在0500 μg/L～〖JP〗100 μg/L范围内线性良好,方法检出限为0001 μg/L～0005 μg/L,自来水空白样品3个质量浓度水平的加标回收率为725%～998%,5次测定结果的RSD为19%～112%。将该方法用于测定珠海本地水产养殖鱼塘和小型水库的水样,结果均未检出     

建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

考虑预测不确定性的微网优化调度

针对现有技术下由于微网中不可控微源出力预测和负荷预测均存在误差较大而引起微网优化调度结果不准确的问题,提出在传统微网经济调度模型中增加不确定性描述模型,得到不同侧重点下的微网经济优化结果,并对结果进行分析。首先,通过利用区间数描述预测不确定性,并结合隶属度函数推导容忍度概念。其次,在并网运行模式的微网结构上建立以运行成本最低为目标函数的微网优化调度模型,并将该模型转换为区间数形式表示。最后,利用粒子群优化算法并以MATLAB为主要工具对上述模型进行求解,得到微网24 h出力优化区间解结果,并对结果进行详细分析。算例通过对某并网型微网进行分析,验证了所提模型的科学性和有效性。     

煤与瓦斯共采在错层位巷道布置中的机理研究及应用构想

为了完善现有煤与瓦斯共采技术,创新煤与瓦斯共采方法,对错层位巷道布置下的煤与瓦斯共采系统展开研究,利用相似模拟试验,分析错层位巷道布置覆岩运动情况,预测其开采围岩裂隙发育和瓦斯运移形式,提出了创新煤与瓦斯共采技术构想。研究结果表明:采空区覆岩三带高度随接续工作面的增加而增大,相邻采空区垮落矸石压实区呈现“O-L-O”形变化,多个相邻采空区覆岩出现大“O”形圈裂隙带;相邻采空区内瓦斯可实现相互运移,大“O”形圈裂隙带内赋存大量瓦斯气体;研究提出了地面钻井抽采瓦斯、走向高位瓦斯抽采巷和外错尾巷穿层钻孔3种煤与瓦斯共采技术,比传统巷道布置情况下的煤与瓦斯共采技术在安全、经济等方面更具优势。     

Impact of roadside noise barriers on particle size distributions and pollutants concentrations near freeways

Increasing epidemiological evidence has established an association between a host of adverse health effects and exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and co-pollutants, especially those emitted from motor vehicles. Although PM and their co-pollutants dispersion profiles near the open freeway have been extensively characterized by means of both experimental measurements and numerical simulations in recent years, such investigations near freeways with roadside barriers have not been well documented in the literature. A few previous studies suggested that the presence of roadside structures, such as noise barriers and vegetation, may impact the decay of pollutant concentrations downwind of the freeway by limiting the initial dispersion of traffic emissions and increasing their vertical mixing due to the upward deflection of airflow. Since the noise barriers are now common roadside features of the freeways, particularly those running through populated urban areas, it is pertinent to investigate the impact of their presence on the particles and co-pollutants concentrations in areas adjacent to busy roadways. This study investigated two highly trafficked freeways (I-710 and I-5) in Southern California, with two sampling sites for each freeway, one with and the other without the roadside noise barriers. Particle size distributions and co-pollutants concentrations were measured in the immediate proximity of freeways and at different distances downwind of the freeways. The results showed the formation of a “concentration deficit” zone in the immediate vicinity of the freeway with the presence of roadside noise barrier, followed by a surge of pollutant concentrations further downwind at 80–100 m away from freeway. The particle and co-pollutants concentrations reach background levels at farther distances of 250–400 m compared to 150–200 m at the sites without roadside noise barriers.     

Using Si depletion in aerosol to identify the sources of crustal dust in two Chinese megacities

Depletion of Si in transported dust has been recognized for many years. It can be used to distinguish between transported and local dust in cities, although it rarely has been. Here we use the variations of the Si/Al ratio in 15 months of continuous PM_2.5 samples at Beijing (northern China) and Chongqing (southwestern China) to reveal the seasonal patterns of their dust sources. For both cities, peaks of concentration for Si and Al in PM_2.5 corresponded with minima of Si/Al, and could often be linked to pulsed air flow from deserts to the northwest. With significant depletion (up to 80%) and homogeneous distribution at urban and rural sites, Si/Al showed a clear seasonal evolution, which decreased from spring to summer, increased from fall to winter, and collapsed during Chinese Spring Festival, indicating the dominance of transported dust, local fugitive dust and firework influence, respectively. The low ratios implied that desert dust is a common source during spring at Chongqing, whereas its presence during cold season at Beijing was also more frequent than expected. Failing to recognize the depletion of Si may lead to an overestimate of desert dust by 15%–65% when using the average abundance of Al in crust (6%–8%), as in previous studies. The difference in Si/Al ratio between local and transported dust implies that >60% of the dust at Beijing came from outside the city during the springs of 2004–2006. This result can help resolve the contradictory findings on this topic that have been presented earlier.     

新型SBBR处理畜禽废水脱氮实验研究

以畜禽废水为处理对象,将序批式运行模式应用到好氧三相内循环生物流化床中,考察在不同模式下的处理效果及氮的转化情况。实验结果表明,在室温条件下,进水COD浓度为2 000 mg/L左右,总氮为140 mg/L左右时,保持溶解氧在2~2.5 mg/L,交替好氧/缺氧运行方式处理效果优于单一的好氧/缺氧方式;模式为3 h(曝气)-1.5 h(停曝)-1.5 h(曝气)-1 h(停曝)时系统对总氮和氨氮处理效果最好,总氮去除率达到90%,系统主要脱氮方式为同步硝化反硝化和短程硝化反硝化。