基于大数据的水环境风险业务化评估与预警研究

随着生态环境大数据的不断建设,国家级、流域级和行政区级别的大数据中心相继产生。快速、高效地分析和利用实时产生、类型多样的环境大数据,提取环境大数据在风险评估与预警的价值,具有重要的意义,也充满挑战。本文基于环境大数据的数据特点和不同层次的组织管理特征以及环境风险评估预警的业务化需求,构建基于大数据的流域环境风险评估与预警技术及其业务化系统的体系、分析环境风险智能识别模式、研究环境风险高效模拟预测和评估的方法,并提出一套满足各级管理部门需求,高效利用环境大数据的多中心业务化系统。     

长三角区域空气质量预警联动系统及其在上海世博会的应用

为保障上海世博会空气质量,开发了长三角区域空气质量预警联动系统.系统由区域数据共享、预报预警、信息发布和应急联动等4个子系统构成,采用自动质量控制检查、多模式集合预报、秸秆焚烧火点判定、预警联动机制研究、GIS自动化处理和表达等关键技术.在上海世博会期间,实时监控和预测了长三角区域空气质量状况和变化趋势,发布了5次大气...     

Application of an early warning indicator and CaO to maximize the time–space-yield of an completely mixed waste digester using rape seed oil as co-substrate

In order to increase the organic loading rate (OLR) and hereby the performance of biogas plants an early warning indicator (EWI-VFA/Ca) was applied in a laboratory-scale biogas digester to control process stability and to steer additive dosing. As soon as the EWI-VFA/Ca indicated the change from stable to instable process conditions, calcium oxide was charged as a countermeasure to raise the pH and to bind long-chain fatty acids (LCFAs) by formation of aggregates. An interval of eight days between two increases of the OLR, which corresponded to 38% of the hydraulic residence time (HRT), was sufficient for process adaptation. An OLR increase by a factor of three within six weeks was successfully used for biogas production. The OLR was increased to 9.5 kg volatile solids (VS) m^?3 d^?1 with up to 87% of fat. The high loading rates affected neither the microbial community negatively nor the biogas production process. Despite the increase of the organic load to high rates, methane production yielded almost its optimum, amounting to 0.9 m³ (kg VS)^?1. Beneath several uncharacterized members of the phylum Firmicutes mostly belonging to the family Clostridiaceae, a Syntrophomonas-like organism was identified that is known to live in a syntrophic relationship to methanogenic archaea. Within the methanogenic group, microorganisms affiliated to Methanosarcina, Methanoculleus and Methanobacterium dominated the community.     

集体建设用地指标市场化交易预警研究

对集体建设用地指标市场化交易进行预警研究可以更好地为其入市提供科学的监督和管控。本文以集体建设用地指标市场化交易的结果征兆信息建立其警兆值的评测指标体系;运用基于主成分分析的"惩罚性"变权法确定权重,计算综合模拟指数划分警界区间、确定警度;结合GM(1,1)模型进行警度预测,并以江苏省新沂市为例进行了实证测算。研究结果表明:1采用景气信号灯来反映警度,2007-2008年新沂市的集体建设用地指标市场交易的警兆值为-0.041和0.184,处于紫色预警;2009年警兆值为0.238,处于蓝色预警;2010年警兆值上升到0.649,处于绿色预警;2011-2013年警兆值从0.876提高至0.920,处于红色预警状态。2对指标体系进行主成分分析确定基础权重,得到建设用地转耕地面积(0.08)、农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费(0.084)、地均财政收入(0.083)等的基础权重明显大于其他指标,是制约预警警度的重要因素。3通过"惩罚性"变权研究,得知农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费的变权权重值有波动下降趋势,说明该指标的重要性递减;第一产业单位面积产值、新型农村合作医疗覆盖率、农村居民基本养老保险参保率的变权权重值有波动上升趋势,说明这些指标的重要性在不断加强。42014-2016年新沂市集体建设用地指标市场交易的预测警兆值是1.566,1.711和2.154,均是红色预警,表明集体建设用地指标交易持续高热。结论与建议:预警结果能为监测集体建设用地指标市场交易情况提供依据,对上述重要因素进行科学合理的管控将有利于降低指标市场交易的警度,以促进集体建设用地入市的持续健康发展。     

Does community resilience mitigate loss and damage from climaterelated disasters? Evidence based on survey data

Policy-makers view community resilience as fundamental to mitigating loss and damage from climate-related disasters. Although energy has been devoted to defining resilience, less effort has been devoted to analysing the effects of resilience on loss and damage, which is critical in places with limited capacity for adaptation. We use survey data to develop a composite index of community resilience in Fiji and then evaluate the extent to which community resilience mitigates loss and damage. We find that community resilience is negatively correlated with damages over which human intervention may be effective, but not with damages over which intervention is less effective, suggesting that community resilience may limit impacts. We further find that this result holds for a cyclone (about which communities had substantial advance warning) but not for river flooding (for which communities had little advanced warning), suggesting that early warning is necessary for community resilience to become responsive.     

上海崇明岛蔬菜地土壤重金属含量与生态风险预警评估

崇明3城镇蔬菜地土壤重金属的总体含量为Cu 29.2 mg·kg^-1、Pb 26.5 mg·kg^-1、Cr 79.4 mg·kg^-1、Zn 91.2 mg·kg^-1和Cd 0.222 mg·kg^-1.除Cd在城桥镇和陈家镇超过国家土壤一级标准(GB 15618-1995)外,其余均低于国家土壤一级标准,并且满足国家对绿色食品产地土壤重金属含量的要求(NY/T391-2000).与上海土壤背景值相比,Cu、Pb、Cr、Zn和Cd分别高出上海土壤背景值 24.3％、24.4％、22.9％、18.8％和65.7％.崇明3城镇蔬菜地土壤重金属生态风险预警评估得出,23个采样点中有3个样点属于中警,10个样点属于轻警,8个样点属于预警,1个样点属于无警,综合评估I_{ER＝1.562,为轻警.3城镇生态风险排序为堡镇（IER=1.799）>城桥镇（IER=1.636）>陈家镇（IER=1.368）,均属于轻警.}     

基于双层规划的危险品运输专用车道优化设计

为更有效地设置危险品运输专用车道,在降低运输风险的同时减少专用道对路权的占用,从路网整体出发,以总体出行成本最小、路网运输风险最小和专用道利用率最大为目标,构建双层规划模型;使用NSGA-2算法求解双层规划模型,结合算例网络进行分析,验证模型和算法的有效性.结果表明:模型可综合考虑路网风险和总体出行成本,得到有效的专用...     

深圳地区地质环境特征与地质灾害防治

通过对深圳地区的地形地貌、地质构造以及气候条件等地质环境特征的调查分析,总结研究了该地区地质灾害的主要类型及地质灾害与地质环境之间的关系,并对深圳地区地质灾害的防治提出了加强地质灾害调查与研究工作、应用先进的监测技术创建地质灾害预警预报系统和提高地质灾害防治的勘察设计和管理水平等防治对策.     

Humanitarian information systems and emergencies in the Greater Horn of Africa: logical components and logical linkages

Natural and man-made emergencies are regular occurrences in the Greater Horn of Africa region. The underlying impoverishment of whole populations is increasing, making it more difficult to distinguish between humanitarian crises triggered by shocks and those resulting from chronic poverty. Shocks and hazards can no longer be seen as one-off events that trigger a one-time response. In countries that are both poor and exposed to frequent episodes of debilitating drought or chronic conflict, information needs tend to be different from the straightforward early warning/commodity accounting models of information systems that have proven reliable in past emergencies. This paper describes the interdependent components of a humanitarian information system appropriate for this kind of complex environment, noting the analytical links between the components and operational links to programme and policy. By examining a series of case studies from the Greater Horn region, the paper demonstrates that systems lacking one or more of these components will fail to provide adequate information--and thus incur humanitarian costs. While information always comes with a cost, the price of poor information--or none--is higher. And in situations of chronic vulnerability, in which development interventions are likely to be interspersed with both safety nets and emergency interventions on a recurrent basis, investment in improved information is a good investment from both a humanitarian and a financial viewpoint.     

长江(江苏段)沿江开发环境风险监控预警系统

简要介绍了长江（江苏段）沿江开发带的基本情况,从区域环境质量及社会经济发展趋势两方面阐述了建立长江流域（江苏段）环境风险监控预警系统的意义。在总结目前国内外环境风险决策支持系统发展现状的基础上,论述了系统的目标、总体功能设计、框架设计以及关键技术,探索将地理信息技术运用于区域环境风险管理决策过程的方法,最后提出该系统还需从以下5个方面进行完善和改进,即追溯最大可信度风险源方法,应急救援系统、区域多环境风险事件的复合作用,发展特定有毒有机物水质预测模型和建立优先控制有毒有机物预警系统。该系统将为江苏长江开发战略提供实用型的环境管理手段。