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201.
Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and
the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical
processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm
track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent
heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding
events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall.
In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution
weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed
(modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic
variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration
using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return
period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small
detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate
change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret
strategy.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
202.
关于植物中氟化物测定结果的计算 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对植物中氟化物测定时由于绘制校准曲线的标准溶液体积与分析样品的定容体积不一样而引出的结果计算时的某些问题,提出了正确的计算方法和建议。 相似文献
203.
Ying Aiwen 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):187-191
It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area. 相似文献
204.
A. Veldkamp P.H. Verburg K. Kok G.H.J. de Koning J. Priess A.R. Bergsma 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2001,6(2):111-121
This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories. 相似文献
205.
We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong
wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze
intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management
policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial
private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences.
The authors would like to thank participants at the international conference on Economics of Sustainable Forest Management
in Toronto, at the PARIS 1 seminar on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, at the 2004 Applied Microeconomics Conference
in Lille and at the 13th annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists at Budapest. 相似文献
206.
连云港市空气质量变化趋势分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
依据连云港市2002—2011年空气质量监测数据,对连云港市空气质量现状及其变化趋势进行系统的分析,并结合实际提出相应对策建议。结果表明,近年来连云港市空气质量总体良好,SO2浓度逐年下降,NO2浓度变化较平稳,PM10浓度下降显著。污染物浓度表现出明显的季节性特征,夏季浓度较低,春冬季较高;主城区各污染物浓度高于其他地区,但总体呈下降趋势。 相似文献
207.
208.
This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner. 相似文献
209.
210.
How do choices among information sources reinforce political differences on topics such as climate change? Environmental sociologists have observed large-scale and long-term impacts from news media and think-tank reports, while experimental science-communication studies detect more immediate effects from variations in supplied information. Applying generalized structural equation modeling to recent survey data, previous work is extended to show that political ideology, education and their interaction predict news media information choices in much the same way they predict opinions about climate change itself. Consequently, media information sources serve as intervening variables that can reinforce and, through their own independent effects, amplify existing beliefs about climate change. Results provide empirical support for selective exposure and biased assimilation as mechanisms widening political divisions on climate change in the United States. The findings fit with the reinforcing spirals framework suggesting partisan media strengthens climate change beliefs which then influences subsequent use of media. 相似文献