长三角空气质量区域预报准确性评估方法研究

根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62.2%,预报评分为70.2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。     

快速城市化背景下的思雅河流域水环境分析

通过对思雅河流域连续3年的水环境质量监测,结合遥感影像获得其土地利用类型变化,据此研究城市化对水环境的影响。结果表明:2012—2014年间思雅河流域自然、农业景观面积占比减少,而建设用地面积持续增加;研究期间除TDS年均值略微下降外,其余水质指标的年均值几乎均呈递增趋势,尤以TSS和COD增加最显著;TSS、COD、NH 3-N和TP的相对标准偏差均>0.1,显著高于其余参数,说明其波动程度较大。主成分分析表明水环境变化最主要的影响因子为第一主成分(TSS、COD、NH 3-N和TP)。贵安新区大学城建设活动加重了思雅河流域水体污染趋势。     

玛纳斯河流域荒漠草地沙化遥感监测研究

以1989—2016年玛纳斯河流域TM/OLI遥感影像为数据源,利用混合像元分解技术,计算玛纳斯河流域草地总覆盖度和裸沙面积。在此基础上通过监测年与基期年的比较,计算草地覆盖度相对基期年的减少率和裸沙面积相对基期年的增加率两个监测指标,依据《天然草地退化、沙化、盐渍化的分级指标》(GB 19377—2003),对计算出的两个指标分别进行沙化等级评定和赋值,将两种评定结果相综合来监测草地沙化。结果表明,玛纳斯河流域近30年来荒漠草地沙漠化总体呈现先增加后降低的趋势。分析表明,玛纳斯河流域草地沙化是人为和自然因素双重作用的结果。     

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Mitigating Impact of Devils Lake Flooding on the Sheyenne River Sulfate Concentration

Devils Lake is a terminal lake located in northeast North Dakota. Because of its glacial origin and accumulated salts from evaporation, the lake has a high concentration of sulfate compared to the surrounding water bodies. From 1993 to 2011, Devils Lake water levels rose by ~10 m, which flooded surrounding communities and increased the chance of an overspill to the Sheyenne River. To control the flooding, the State of North Dakota constructed two outlets to pump the lake water to the river. However, the pumped water has raised concerns about of water quality degradation and potential flooding risk of the Sheyenne River. To investigate these perceived impacts, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for the Sheyenne River and it was linked to a coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2 model that was developed for Devils Lake in a previous study. While the current outlet schedule has attempted to maintain the total river discharge within the confines of a two‐year flood (36 m³/s), our simulation from 2012 to 2018 revealed that the diversion increased the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration from an average of 125 to >750 mg/L. Furthermore, a conceptual optimization model was developed with a goal of better preserving the water quality of the Sheyenne River while effectively mitigating the flooding of Devils Lake. The optimal solution provides a “win–win” outlet management that maintains the efficiency of the outlets while reducing the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration to ≤600 mg/L.     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Eco-Environmental Degradation in the Source Region of the Yellow River, Northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The Yellow River is the second longest river in China and the cradle of the Chinese civilization. The source region of the Yellow River is the most important water holding area for the Yellow River, about 49.2% of the whole runoff comes from this region. However, for the special location, it is a region with most fragile eco-environment in China as well. Eco-environmental degradation in the source region of the Yellow River has been a very serious ecological and socially economic problem. According to census data, historical documents and climatic information, during the last half century, especially the last 30 years, great changes have taken place in the eco-environment of this region. Such changes are mainly manifested in the temporal-spatial changes of water environment, deglaciation, permafrost reduction, vegetation degeneracy and desertification extent, which led to land capacity decreasing and river disconnecting. At present, desertification of the region is showing an accelerating tendency. This paper analyzes the present status of eco-environment degradation in this region supported by GIS and RS, as well as field investigation and indoor analysis, based on knowledge, multi-source data is gathered and the classification is worked out, deals with their natural and anthropogenic causes, and points out that in the last half century the desertification and environmental degradation of this region are mainly attributed to human activities under the background of regional climate changes. To halt further degradation of the environment of this region, great efforts should be made to use land resources rationally, develop advantages animal agriculture and protect the natural grassland.     

Using Ion-Exchange Resins to Study Soil Response to Experimental Watershed Acidification

Ion-exchange resins (IER) offer alternative approaches to measuring ionic movement in soils that may have advantages over traditional approaches in some settings, but more information is needed to understand how IER compare with traditional methods of measurement in forested ecosystems. At the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine (BBWM), one of two paired, forested watersheds is treated bi-monthly with S and N (28.8 and 25.2kgha⁻¹yr⁻¹ of S and N, respectively). Both IER and ceramic cup tension lysimeters were used to study soil solution responses after ∼11 years of treatment. Results from both methods showed treatments resulted in the mobilization of base cations and Al, and higher SO₄—S and inorganic N in the treated watershed. Both methods indicated similar differences in results associated with forest type (hardwoods versus softwoods), a result of differences in litter quality and atmospheric aerosol interception capacity. The correlation between lysimeter and IER data for individual analytes varied greatly. Significant correlations were evident for Na (r=0.75), Al (r=0.65), Mn (r=0.61), Fe (r=0.57), Ca (r=0.49), K (r=0.41) and NO₃—N (r=0.59). No correlation was evident between IER and soil solution data for NH₄—N and Pb. Both IER and soil solution techniques suggested similar interpretations of biogeochemical behavior in the watershed.     

Characterization of Benthic Communities and Physical Habitat in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced Rivers, California

The primary goal of this study was to characterize physical habitat and benthic communities (macroinvertebrates) in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne and Merced Rivers in California’s San Joaquin Valley in 2003. These rivers have been listed as impaired water bodies (303 (d) list) by the State of California due to the presence of organophosphate (OP) insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon, Group A pesticides (i.e., organochlorine pesticides), mercury, or unknown toxicity. Based on 10 instream and riparian physical habitat metrics, total physical habitat scores in the Stanislaus River ranged from 124 to 188 (maximum possible total score is 200). The highest total habitat score was reported at the upstream site. Tuolumne River physical habitat scores ranged from 86 to 167. Various Tuolumne River physical habitat metrics, including total habitat score, increased from downstream to upstream in this river. Merced River physical habitat scores ranged from 121 to 170 with a significant increase in various physical habitat metrics, including total habitat score, reported from downstream to upstream. Channel flow (an instream metric) and bank stability (a riparian metric) were the most important physical habitat metrics influencing the various benthic metrics for all three rivers. Abundance measures of benthic macroinvertebrates (5,100 to 5,400 individuals) were similar among the three rivers in the San Joaquin watershed. Benthic communities in all three rivers were generally dominated by: (1) Baetidae species (mayflies) which are a component of EPT taxa generally considered sensitive to environmental degradation; (2) Chironomidae (midges) which can be either tolerant or sensitive to environmental stressors depending on the species; (3) Ephemerellidae (mayflies) which are considered sensitive to pollution stress; and (4) Naididae (aquatic worms) which are generally considered tolerant to environmental stressors. The presence of 117 taxa in the Stanislaus River, 114 taxa in the Tuolumne River and 96 taxa in the Merced River implies that the benthic communities in these streams are fairly diverse but without a clear definition of benthic community expectations it is unknown if these water bodies are actually impaired.     

PAHs Contamination in Bank Sediment of the Yamuna River, Delhi, India

This study was performed to elucidate the distribution, concentration trend and possible sources of PAHs in bank sediment of river Yamuna in Delhi, India. The levels of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analyzed during pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons in the sediment fraction < 53 μm. Reference standards and internal standards were used for identification and quantification of PAHs by HPLC. The sum of 16 PAH compounds ranged from 4.50 to 23.53 μg/g with a mean concentration of 10.15 ± 4.32 μg/g (dry wt.). Among 5 sites studied, the site, Income Tax Office (ITO) was found to be the hotspot attaining highest concentration. Predominance of 2–4 ring PAHs suggests a relatively recent local sources of PAHs in the study area. Moreover, molecular indices based source apportionment also illustrates pyrogenic source fingerprint of PAHs. No significant temporal trend was observed.