基于第二次全国污染源普查质量保证的思考及体系建设初探

通过对清查数据的结果分析,确定第二次全国污染源入户普查的对象,基于企业填报、现场入户、资料收集审核、数据核查等具体工作的实施与开展,思考和归总普查工作中影响数据质量的现实问题和难点,初步构建污染源普查质量保证体系,以期为全国污染源普查数据质量保证提供有益参考。     

Adaptation of Climate Model Projections of Streamflow to Account for Upstream Anthropogenic Impairments

A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.     

Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

A critical overview of driver recording tools

Introduction: Technological advancements during recent decades have led to the development of a wide array of tools and methods in order to record driving behavior and measure various aspects of driving performance. The aim of the present study is to present and comparatively assess the various driver recording tools that researchers have at their disposal. Method: In order to achieve this aim, a multitude of published studies from the international literature have been examined based on the driver recording methodologies that have been implemented. An examination of more traditional survey methods (questionnaires, police reports, and direct observer methods) is initially conducted, followed by investigating issues pertinent to the use of driving simulators. Afterwards, an extensive section is provided for naturalistic driving data tools, including the utilization of on-board diagnostics (OBD) and in-vehicle data recorders (IVDRs). Lastly, in-depth incident analysis and the exploitation of smartphone data are discussed. Results: A critical synthesis of the results is conducted, providing the advantages and disadvantages of utilizing each tool and including additional knowledge regarding ease of experimental implementation, data handling issues, impacts on subsequent analyses, as well as the respective cost parameters. Conclusions: New technologies provide undeniably powerful tools that allow for seamless data handling, storage, and analysis, such as smartphones and in-vehicle data recorders. However, this sometimes comes at considerable costs (which may or may not pay off at a later stage), while legacy driver recording methods still have their own niches to fill in research. Practical Applications: The present research supports researchers when designing driver behavior monitoring studies. The present work enables better scheduling and pacing of research activities, but can also provide insights for the distribution of research funds.     

Moving FOCUS – The Fire Service Organizational Culture of Safety survey – From research to practice

Introduction: FOCUS, the Fire Service Organizational Culture of Safety survey, has evolved from a research to practice enterprise within the United States fire and rescue service. The FOCUS tool was developed through a FEMA Assistance to Firefighters Research & Development grant. Then it moved to practice in the field. To date over 35,000 firefighters have participated. A current FEMA Fire Prevention & Safety grant can support FOCUS assessment in up to 1,000 fire departments, with the potential of nearly 120,000 respondents. With each funding cycle, the goal of the FOCUS program is to grow and measure its research to practice impact. Methods: We describe how FOCUS safety culture results are disseminated to fire service stakeholders. By utilizing customized reports and a training curriculum we demonstrate how FOCUS is moving research to practice by: (1) illustrating how survey results can be delivered effectively to practitioners, (2) providing examples of how fire departments are using results, and (3) sharing the reactions of the fire service to the FOCUS instrument, reports, and our flagship data training curriculum – Culture Camp. Results' Conclusions: Qualitative and quantitative data are analyzed to demonstrate the impact and acceptance of the FOCUS report and Culture Camps. Stakeholders reflect on the report and the experience of having quantitative safety culture data. Culture Camps are evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively using a matching game exercise, pre/post-test, a fire department teach back, and a Qualtrics evaluation. Practical Applications: Traditionally, the fire service has focused on reducing negative safety outcomes. FOCUS is helping shift their attention further upstream in the prevention pathway through the measurement of important organizational outcomes. The research to practice evolution of the FOCUS program may hold utility for other occupational groups when considering how to steadily move occupational health and safety research to practice in the field for measurable impact.     

Traffic climate and driver behaviors: The moderating role of driving skills in Turkey and China

Introduction: While road traffic accidents and fatalities are a worldwide problem, the rates of road traffic accidents and fatalities show differences among countries. Similarly, driver behaviors, traffic climate, and their relationships also show differences among countries. The aim of the current study is to investigate the moderating effect of driving skills on the relationship between traffic climate and driver behaviors by country. (Turkey and China). Method: There were 294 Turkish drivers and 292 Chinese drivers, and they completed the Traffic Climate Scale, the Driving Skills Inventory, and the Driver Behavior Questionnaire. The moderated moderation analyses were conducted with Hayes PROCESS tool on SPSS. Results: The results showed that safety skills moderated the relationship between internal requirements and violations both in Turkey and China. Safety skills also moderated the relationship between internal requirements and errors only in China and the relationship between functionality and violations in Turkey. Perceptual-motor skills moderated the relationships between external affective demands and errors, and also the relationship between internal requirements and positive driver behaviors in Turkey. It can be inferred that driving skills has different influences on traffic climate-driver behaviors relationship in different cultures and there might be cultural differences in the evaluation of drivers’ own driving skills. Practical Applications: Among driving skills, safety skills have a more critical role to increase road safety by decreasing number of violations. Interventions to increase safety skills of drivers might be promising for road safety.     

Abusive according to whom? Manager and subordinate perceptions of abusive supervision and supervisors' performance

Recognizing that supervisor–subordinate dyads exist within a broader organizational hierarchy, we examine how the individual's role within the organizational hierarchy influences perceptions of abusive supervision. Specifically, we examine how supervisors' abusive behaviors are perceived by abusive supervisors' managers as well as abusive supervisors' subordinates. Drawing on role theory, we propose that these perceptions will differ. Further, we suggest that these differences will be reflected in different relationships between manager-rated abusive supervision and subordinate-rated abusive supervision and managers' evaluations of supervisor performance. Results from manager–supervisor–subordinate triads indicate differences between managers' and subordinates' view of abusive supervision. Further, managers' perceptions of abuse were related to supervisors' in-role performance, whereas subordinates' perceptions of abuse were related to workgroup performance. In Study 2, we replicate these findings and expand our investigation to an examination of supervisors' contextual performance. Additionally, we examine another contextual characteristic—aggressive climate—and demonstrate it influences how abusive supervision relates to managerial evaluations of supervisor performance. Future research and managerial implications are discussed.