"十三五"国家自然科学基金对能源环境管理领域的资助状况和趋势

能源环境管理是各界关注的热点话题,也是科学研究的重要方向.以国家自然科学基金资助能源环境管理领域的科研项目为基础数据信息,本文重点分析了"十三五"期间国家自然科学基金在该领域资助项目的总体特征、研究主题和热点变化,并结合新时代科学基金资助导向提出了可能的发展趋势.主要结论包括:①能源环境管理领域面上、青年、地区等自由探索类项目的立项绝对数和学科占比均呈上升趋势,并更多向青年学者倾斜,资助强度保持稳定;②碳、能源和环境是自由探索项目中出现频率最高的热词,与之相关的研究主题随着政策等调整具有动态变化特征;③能源环境管理领域重点、重大等引导类项目和优青、杰青、创新研究群体等人才类项目不断实现突破,增速明显,学科占比优势突出;④问题导向与本土情景、理论体系和一般规律、学科交叉融合,以及市场和微观主体作用是研究选题确立与项目申请时可能需要重点关注的方向.     

Formulaic Expert Method to Integrate Evaluation and Valuation of Heritage Trees in Compact City

Urban trees serve important environmental, social and economic functions, but similar to other natural endowments they are not customarily depicted in monetary terms. The needs to augment protection, funding and community support for urban greening call for proper valuation. Heritage trees (HTs), the cream of urban-tree stock, deserve special attention. Existing assessment methods do not give justice to outstanding trees in compact cities deficient in high-caliber greenery, and to their social-cultural-historical importance. They artificially separate evaluation from valuation, which should be a natural progression from the former. Review of tree valuation methods suggested the formula approach to be more suitable than contingent valuation and hedonic pricing, and provided hints on their strengths and weaknesses. This study develops an alternative formulaic expert method (FEM) that integrates evaluation and valuation, maximizes objectivity, broadly encompasses the key tree, tree-environment and tree-human traits, and accords realistic monetary value to HTs. Six primary criteria (dimension, species, tree, condition, location, and outstanding consideration) branched into 45 secondary criteria, each allocated numerical marks. Each primary criterion was standardized to carry equal weight, and a tree's maximum aggregate score is capped at 100. A Monetary Assignment Factor (MAF) to consign dollar value to each score unit was derived from three-year average per m² sale price of medium-sized residential flats. The applicability of FEM was tested on selected HTs in compact Hong Kong. The aggregate score of a tree multiplied by MAF yielded monetary value, which was on average 66 times higher than the result from the commonly-adopted Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers method. The computed tree values could be publicized together with multiple tree benefits to raise understanding and awareness and rally support to protect HTs. The property-linked FEM could be flexibly applied to other cities, especially to assess HTs in compact developing cities.     

基于CA的城市形态扩展多解模拟——以北京市东部平原区情景分析为例

构建了一个基于人工神经网络的约束型城市扩展CA模型。利用该模型,预测了北京市东部平原区在3种情景规划之下的未来50年的城市形态,为不同的城市发展模式之间的比较分析奠定基础。然后以2024年的北京东部平原区模拟城市形态为基准,从自然生态功效、社会服务功效、经济利益功效3个方面对3种规划模式进行了情景分析,从而系统的比较了3种规划模式的复合生态功效,为城市规划决策提供有力的支持。     

流域水质目标管理技术研究(Ⅰ)——控制单元的总量控制技术

对国内外水污染防治技术体系进行了归纳总结,系统地介绍了美国水质管理技术——TMDL计划的技术框架和特点,指出TMDL对我国水质目标管理的借鉴意义. 在“以人为本,保护水生态”以及“分类、分区、分级、分期”理念的指导下,构建了以保持水生态系统健康为目标的流域水质目标管理技术体系,阐述了该体系的内涵和特点,研究了面向控制单元的总量控制技术方法,对水环境生态分区、水质标准体系的建立、水污染控制单元的选取、实际和允许负荷量的计算、污染负荷分配等关键技术进行了探讨,最后就如何实现流域水质目标管理体系提出了建议.       

海南省人类活动对自然生态的影响

将社会库存、水资源足迹和污染足迹纳入生态足迹需求计算模型,改进和完善了生态足迹需求理论与方法. 依据海南省统计年鉴资料,计算并分析了海南省1952—2004年的生态足迹,揭示了海南省52年来对自然资源利用的状况和特征.结果表明:①海南省可再生资源生态足迹占总生态足迹的绝大部分,二者呈同步增长态势,但距离在加大;②海南省对自然资源的利用主要集中于海洋、耕地和能源用地,对草地、林地、淡水水域和建设用地的利用强度相对较小,对水资源的利用强度明显减少;③海南省万元GDP生态足迹呈下降趋势,资源利用效益逐步提高. 海南省生态足迹动态变化的原因包括:①海南省生态足迹的变化是海南省经济生产和消费结构变化的结果,经济和人口增长导致资源的大量消耗,是造成生态足迹不断上升的主要原因;②海南省经济生产的主要方式是农业,农业问题是海南省可持续发展需要解决的首要问题;③海南省对耕地、林地和水资源的利用逐步下降,近几年对水域特别是海洋动物性食品的需求急剧增加,这是居民收入水平上涨的结果。      

系统动力学复杂性及其在海洋生态学中的研究进展

海洋生态系统具有开放性、耗散性和非线性等特点,可以借助于系统动力学方法对其研究.系统动力学研究一个不可回避的问题就是系统动力学复杂性.本文在简单介绍几种常见的系统动力学模型及其复杂性问题的基础上,系统阐述了当前系统动力学复杂性在海洋生物多样性的维持、海洋生态系统的物质循环、海洋生物群落结构稳定性、有害藻类的暴发、海洋污染物的扩散、海洋生态毒理动力学、海洋生物资源的开发与管理等方面的应用、研究进展及相关问题.在总结以上研究进展的基础上,本文对系统动力学复杂性在海洋生态学研究中的应用进行了展望.     

Bison and cattle grazing management,bare ground coverage,and links to suspended sediment concentrations in grassland streams

This study quantified the impact of bison and cattle grazing management practices on bare ground coverage at the watershed, riparian, and forested riparian scales within the Flint Hills ecoregion in Kansas. We tested for correlations between bare ground coverage and fluvial suspended sediment concentrations during base‐flow and storm‐flow events. We used remotely sensed imagery combined with field surveys to classify ground cover and quantify the presence of bare ground. Base‐flow water samples were collected bi‐monthly during rain‐free periods and 24 h following precipitation events. Storm‐flow water samples were collected on the rising limb of the hydrograph, using single‐stage automatic samplers. Ungrazed treatments contained the lowest coverage of bare ground at the watershed, riparian, and forested riparian scales. Bison treatments contained the highest coverage of bare ground at the watershed scale, while high‐density cattle treatments contained the highest coverage of bare ground at the riparian and forested riparian scales. In bison and cattle‐grazed treatments, a majority of bare ground was located near fence lines, watershed boundaries, and third‐ and fourth‐order stream segments. Inorganic sediment concentrations at base flow were best predicted by riparian bare ground coverage, while storm‐flow sediment concentrations were best predicted by watershed scale bare ground coverage.     

Species-specific and context-dependant disruption of temporal population fluctuations resulting from hypereutrophication events

This study quantifies the disruption of zooplankton population fluctuations in relation to two magnitudes of fire retardant contamination events using artificial ponds as model systems. Population time series were analysed using redundancy analysis where time was modelled with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices approach that identified relevant scales of fluctuation frequencies. Analyses of temporal coherence provided insight whether population fluctuations correlated with system intrinsic or extrinsic forces. Responses to stress were species-specific and context-dependant. Contamination changed temporal structure in some species. These alterations were associated with an increased intrinsic control of dynamics. In some cases the magnitude of impact was unrelated to contamination severity. Some populations were less tolerant of pollution in the low relative to the high concentration treatment. Results suggest that population-level monitoring of degraded sites may be suboptimal because disparate population responses complicate the selection of specific sentinel organisms to monitor stress.     

Industrial and urban symbiosis in Japan: Analysis of the Eco-Town program 1997–2006

Japan's Eco-Town Program spearheaded in Japan the integration of Industrial Symbiosis and Urban Symbiosis, seeking to maximise the economic and environmental benefit from close geographic proximity of industrial and urban areas, through the use of previously discarded commercial, municipal and industrial waste materials in industrial applications. The program established 26 Eco-Towns around Japan. Approximately 1.65 billion USD was invested in 61 innovative recycling projects, with an average government subsidy of 36%. In addition at least 107 other recycling facilities have been constructed without government subsidy. 14 Eco-Towns primarily contributed to improving industry's productivity, whilst 10 Eco-Towns primarily contributed to improving environmental amenity. In 16 Eco-Towns the private sector was the most important actor supporting local government in the realisation of the Eco-Town, whilst in 9 Eco-Towns this was civil society. The availability of investment subsidies, the coming into force of ambitious recycling legislation with quantified, product-specific targets, access to the significant technological resources of the private sector, and widespread recognition of the urgency to act on environmental issues, all contributed to the success of the Eco-Town Program.     

生态旅游经济关系的二重性辨析

生态旅游经济关系是自然生态关系和社会经济关系的有机统一,两种关系并存于生态旅游经济复合系统中,成为生态旅游经济可持续发展的基础.但是,生态旅游经济关系在实践中出现了严重的变形,利益关系的冲突,正在使生态旅游经济越来越多地出现不和谐的现象,突破利益关系制约的瓶颈,重建和谐的生态旅游经济关系,正是解决生态危机的着眼点.因此,本文对生态旅游经济关系的二重性进行深入辨析,指出无论是生态旅游经济行为主体还是生态旅游经济过程,都具有自然生态属性和社会经济属性相统一的二重性,这些都决定了生态旅游经济关系二重性的协调统一.针对生态旅游经济关系在实践发展中的扭曲变形,只有变革传统经济学的发展观,以生态经济学和可持续发展经济学的理论为平台,对失调的生态旅游经济关系进行修正,还原生态旅游经济关系的本来面貌,即人与自然和谐、生态与经济协调、自然生态关系与社会经济关系统一的理想状态,才能实现生态旅游经济的可持续发展.