1961-2012 年西藏极端降水事件的变化

利用18 个气象站点1961-2012 年逐日降水量资料,计算了10 个极端降水指数,采用滑动平均、线性回归、Mann-Kendall 非参数检验和Morlet 小波分析等方法,分析了西藏极端降水事件的变化规律。结果表明：西藏近52 a 连续干旱日数（CDD）呈显著减少趋势,最大5 d 降水量也趋于减少但不显著,大雨日数和强降水量的线性趋势不明显,其他6 个极端降水指数都表现为增加趋势且不显著。与全球、青藏高原及其周边地区比较,西藏CDD和连续湿日的变幅明显偏大,最大1 日降水量、强降水量和极强降水量的变幅明显偏小。除CDD外,极端降水指数的变化趋势与海拔高度呈显著的二次曲线关系,仅有中雨日数的变化趋势与经度呈显著的正相关。在近52 a 的时间尺度上各项极端降水指数都存在3～4 a 显著周期,多数指数也存在12a、15 a 和16 a 的周期。在时间转折上,CDD的突变点时间较早,从1974 年开始;中雨日数、连续湿日和年总降水量的突变点发生在20 世纪80 年代末。从空间分布来看,那曲地区西部是极端降水指数变化最为显著的区域,雅鲁藏布江中游大部的多数极端降水指标趋于下降,而山南地区南部、林芝地区东南部的降水极值和降水强度都在增加。     

Adaptation of Climate Model Projections of Streamflow to Account for Upstream Anthropogenic Impairments

A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.     

Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Moving FOCUS – The Fire Service Organizational Culture of Safety survey – From research to practice

Introduction: FOCUS, the Fire Service Organizational Culture of Safety survey, has evolved from a research to practice enterprise within the United States fire and rescue service. The FOCUS tool was developed through a FEMA Assistance to Firefighters Research & Development grant. Then it moved to practice in the field. To date over 35,000 firefighters have participated. A current FEMA Fire Prevention & Safety grant can support FOCUS assessment in up to 1,000 fire departments, with the potential of nearly 120,000 respondents. With each funding cycle, the goal of the FOCUS program is to grow and measure its research to practice impact. Methods: We describe how FOCUS safety culture results are disseminated to fire service stakeholders. By utilizing customized reports and a training curriculum we demonstrate how FOCUS is moving research to practice by: (1) illustrating how survey results can be delivered effectively to practitioners, (2) providing examples of how fire departments are using results, and (3) sharing the reactions of the fire service to the FOCUS instrument, reports, and our flagship data training curriculum – Culture Camp. Results' Conclusions: Qualitative and quantitative data are analyzed to demonstrate the impact and acceptance of the FOCUS report and Culture Camps. Stakeholders reflect on the report and the experience of having quantitative safety culture data. Culture Camps are evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively using a matching game exercise, pre/post-test, a fire department teach back, and a Qualtrics evaluation. Practical Applications: Traditionally, the fire service has focused on reducing negative safety outcomes. FOCUS is helping shift their attention further upstream in the prevention pathway through the measurement of important organizational outcomes. The research to practice evolution of the FOCUS program may hold utility for other occupational groups when considering how to steadily move occupational health and safety research to practice in the field for measurable impact.     

Traffic climate and driver behaviors: The moderating role of driving skills in Turkey and China

Introduction: While road traffic accidents and fatalities are a worldwide problem, the rates of road traffic accidents and fatalities show differences among countries. Similarly, driver behaviors, traffic climate, and their relationships also show differences among countries. The aim of the current study is to investigate the moderating effect of driving skills on the relationship between traffic climate and driver behaviors by country. (Turkey and China). Method: There were 294 Turkish drivers and 292 Chinese drivers, and they completed the Traffic Climate Scale, the Driving Skills Inventory, and the Driver Behavior Questionnaire. The moderated moderation analyses were conducted with Hayes PROCESS tool on SPSS. Results: The results showed that safety skills moderated the relationship between internal requirements and violations both in Turkey and China. Safety skills also moderated the relationship between internal requirements and errors only in China and the relationship between functionality and violations in Turkey. Perceptual-motor skills moderated the relationships between external affective demands and errors, and also the relationship between internal requirements and positive driver behaviors in Turkey. It can be inferred that driving skills has different influences on traffic climate-driver behaviors relationship in different cultures and there might be cultural differences in the evaluation of drivers’ own driving skills. Practical Applications: Among driving skills, safety skills have a more critical role to increase road safety by decreasing number of violations. Interventions to increase safety skills of drivers might be promising for road safety.     

Abusive according to whom? Manager and subordinate perceptions of abusive supervision and supervisors' performance

Recognizing that supervisor–subordinate dyads exist within a broader organizational hierarchy, we examine how the individual's role within the organizational hierarchy influences perceptions of abusive supervision. Specifically, we examine how supervisors' abusive behaviors are perceived by abusive supervisors' managers as well as abusive supervisors' subordinates. Drawing on role theory, we propose that these perceptions will differ. Further, we suggest that these differences will be reflected in different relationships between manager-rated abusive supervision and subordinate-rated abusive supervision and managers' evaluations of supervisor performance. Results from manager–supervisor–subordinate triads indicate differences between managers' and subordinates' view of abusive supervision. Further, managers' perceptions of abuse were related to supervisors' in-role performance, whereas subordinates' perceptions of abuse were related to workgroup performance. In Study 2, we replicate these findings and expand our investigation to an examination of supervisors' contextual performance. Additionally, we examine another contextual characteristic—aggressive climate—and demonstrate it influences how abusive supervision relates to managerial evaluations of supervisor performance. Future research and managerial implications are discussed.     

Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.     

Eco-Environmental Degradation in the Source Region of the Yellow River, Northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The Yellow River is the second longest river in China and the cradle of the Chinese civilization. The source region of the Yellow River is the most important water holding area for the Yellow River, about 49.2% of the whole runoff comes from this region. However, for the special location, it is a region with most fragile eco-environment in China as well. Eco-environmental degradation in the source region of the Yellow River has been a very serious ecological and socially economic problem. According to census data, historical documents and climatic information, during the last half century, especially the last 30 years, great changes have taken place in the eco-environment of this region. Such changes are mainly manifested in the temporal-spatial changes of water environment, deglaciation, permafrost reduction, vegetation degeneracy and desertification extent, which led to land capacity decreasing and river disconnecting. At present, desertification of the region is showing an accelerating tendency. This paper analyzes the present status of eco-environment degradation in this region supported by GIS and RS, as well as field investigation and indoor analysis, based on knowledge, multi-source data is gathered and the classification is worked out, deals with their natural and anthropogenic causes, and points out that in the last half century the desertification and environmental degradation of this region are mainly attributed to human activities under the background of regional climate changes. To halt further degradation of the environment of this region, great efforts should be made to use land resources rationally, develop advantages animal agriculture and protect the natural grassland.