Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

土地利用/覆盖变化对长江上游非点源污染影响研究

在国内外相关研究的基础上,利用输出系数模型,结合RS和GIS技术,对长江上游的非点源污染负荷进行了空间模拟和负荷估算.模拟结果表明,在不考虑流域损失的前提下,由于土地利用造成的非点源污染负荷TN总量从20世纪70年代的123万t下降至2000年的116万t,基本呈逐年减少的趋势,由土地利用造成的TP的变化趋势与TN基本相同,从70年代的3.7万t下降到2000年的3.5万t左右.就省份、土地利用类型和水系而言,四川省、种植用地和草地以及金沙江水系和嘉陵江水系对长江上游的非点源污染贡献较大.在非点源污染负荷强度上,重庆市和嘉陵江水系单位面积负荷最高,是今后应重点治理的地区.结果表明,该模型可以对长江上游这样的超大尺度空间的非点源污染进行较好的空间模拟.     

滇池流域磷循环系统的物质流分析

研究营养元素在社会经济系统中的物质代谢结构及特征,是有效预防和控制地表水体富营养化的关键性分析技术之一.以滇池流域磷循环为研究案例,运用物质流分析方法建立了2000年流域静态物质流模型(PHOSFAD),并在此基础上识别出流域磷循环系统的总体结构特征,以及资源开采、化工生产、农业种植、畜禽养殖、居民生活等生产和消费部门的物质利用效率特征,为科学防治滇池水体富营养化提供了重要决策依据和参考.     

Mitigating Impact of Devils Lake Flooding on the Sheyenne River Sulfate Concentration

Devils Lake is a terminal lake located in northeast North Dakota. Because of its glacial origin and accumulated salts from evaporation, the lake has a high concentration of sulfate compared to the surrounding water bodies. From 1993 to 2011, Devils Lake water levels rose by ~10 m, which flooded surrounding communities and increased the chance of an overspill to the Sheyenne River. To control the flooding, the State of North Dakota constructed two outlets to pump the lake water to the river. However, the pumped water has raised concerns about of water quality degradation and potential flooding risk of the Sheyenne River. To investigate these perceived impacts, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for the Sheyenne River and it was linked to a coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2 model that was developed for Devils Lake in a previous study. While the current outlet schedule has attempted to maintain the total river discharge within the confines of a two‐year flood (36 m³/s), our simulation from 2012 to 2018 revealed that the diversion increased the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration from an average of 125 to >750 mg/L. Furthermore, a conceptual optimization model was developed with a goal of better preserving the water quality of the Sheyenne River while effectively mitigating the flooding of Devils Lake. The optimal solution provides a “win–win” outlet management that maintains the efficiency of the outlets while reducing the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration to ≤600 mg/L.     

产业结构演变的流域水环境响应研究——以社渎港流域为例

以太湖15个入湖河流之一的社渎港为研究对象,利用社渎港流域的水环境质量监测数据、工业企业污染排放调查数据、环境统计数据及社会经济统计数据,对社渎港流域产业结构的合理性进行了诊断,并采用典型相关分析方法探讨了产业结构演变对水环境的影响。结果表明,研究区的工业污染总体上得到了较好控制,其中屺亭街道的工业污染排放最为严重;城乡生活污染和农业面源污染是研究区水环境质量恶化的主要原因,城乡生活污染对COD和氨氮入河量的贡献率较高,分别为46.59%和60.55%,农业面源污染对TN和TP入河量的贡献率突出,分别为64.05%和76.50%;研究区产业结构与钱纳里三次产业结构模式(产业结构合理程度的参照标准)的Hamming贴近度从2001年的0.83下降到2007年的0.77,产业结构不尽合理,且不合理程度逐渐加剧;研究区第一产业对TN和TP入河量的影响最为显著,第三产业对氨氮和COD入河量的影响最为明显;可通过优化产业结构来减轻研究区的水环境污染状况,产业结构调整的主要目标应为降低第二产业产值比例及增加第三产业产值比例。     

An Objective Multiattribute Analysis Approach for Allocation of Scarce Irrigation Water Resources1

Zardari, Noor ul Hassan, Ian Cordery, and Ashish Sharma, 2010. An Objective Multiattribute Analysis Approach for Allocation of Scarce Irrigation Water Resources. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):412-428. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00410.x Abstract: In this study, end user (farmer) and decision maker (water allocator) opinions were surveyed and a conjoint analysis (CA) based method was applied to the quantitative and qualitative data to assess the utility associated with each attribute that plays a role in forming the final thinking of the water users. The application of CA for estimating the utility for each attribute level is a novel approach, which helps provide a formal, objective basis for assigning relative scales for each attribute interval within a multiattribute decision-making model. The utilities (part-worths) obtained from the CA have a cardinal scale and were found to be comparable within and across the attributes. A farmers’ survey on five water allocation attributes was completed from 62 farmers and their opinions on the relative importance of attributes were elicited for a subarea of the Indus River Basin. The CA method was then applied to the survey data and the utilities for each attribute level were determined. This allowed, for instance, decisions to be made, which take account of the perceived value of the water and of the availability of local labor to work on the farm. Finally, these interval scales were used within the specification of the ELECTRE multiattribute decision-making method to provide a complete and objective ranking of nine irrigation districts so that the best decisions on water allocation could be made.     

SWOT Analysis and Challenges of Nile Basin Initiative：An Integrated Water Resource Management Perspective

River Nile is one of the longest transboundery rivers and it is shared and used by Burundi,Democratic Republic of Congo,Egypt,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Kenya,Rwanda,Sudan,Tanzania and Uganda.As of today,the Nile is a crucial resource for the economic development of the Nile Basin countries and a vital source of livelihood for 160 million inhabitants as well as 300 million people living in the 10 riparian countries.The Nile Basin Initiative(NBI) is one of the international cooperative river basin management program and regional partnership where all the Nile Basin countries except Eritrea unite to pursue long-term sustainable development,improved land use practices and management.This review therefore focused on the challenges not faced on NBI in terms of integrated use of the river and conducted analysis of strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats(SWOT) based on secondary data.The result of the review revealed that for decades,the Nile Basin people have been facing many complex environmental,social,economic and political challenges that have made it difficult for the proper management and sustainability of Nile water.The initiative provides training to develop skills in government ministries,non-governmental organizations and local communities in each country.It is also working to raise awareness of critical environmental issues by strengthening networks of environmental education practitioners;developing curriculum in the education sector.The challenges of NBI include the involvement and funding of World Bank,lack of sufficient staff,procedural and policies conflicts,lack of coordination and linkage with other regional institutions and lack of recognition as river basin organization.Considering the complex nature of the project,it is recommended that the NBI should come up with a strong multi-disciplinary monitoring and evaluation team to follow up all implemented projects.The NBI should carry out participatory land use planning in communities along the river basin.Moreover,livelihood analysis should be carried out especially in communities along the Nile to come up with poverty eradication projects which are socially acceptable,applicable,economically viable and affordable.     

基于用水总量控制的水资源承载能力分析研究——以赣江袁河流域为例

通过界定水资源承载能力的概念和内涵,提出基于总量控制条件下人口 经济 水资源三者系统协调耦合的水资源承载能力分析计算方法,分别采用产业结构调整和水资源优化配置模型等措施,以赣江袁河流域水资源承载能力分析计算进行例证。研究结果表明：在用水总量控制、保障社会发展水平和人均GDP水平条件下,（1）优化后行业用水定额下降,流域需水总量减少,水资源利用效率提高,目标年2015年和2030年流域需水量调整后较调整前分别减少036亿m3、090亿m3,较调整前下降了23%和53%;（2）对于不同目标年,优化后用水区域可承载GDP和承载人口有所增加,2015年和2030年全流域可承载GDP分别增加2649亿元和15191亿元,全流域可承载人口分别增加773万人和1874万人     

基于MODIS的渍害田和正常农田遥感特性对比研究

渍害田在我国南方地区分布广泛,严重影响农业生产。以四湖流域洪湖地区为实验区,基于渍害田的物理及生态特性来探讨渍害田遥感识别特性。利用2002～2011年MODIS产品,辅以土壤图、土地覆被数据,对比分析了正常农田及渍害田在反照率、增强型植被指数（EVI）、地表夜温、地表温差和表观热惯量的时相差异;并结合相关研究成果加以解释和验证。结果表明：一年中大部分时段,正常农田的反照率、EVI、地表温差都大于渍害田,而地表夜温、表观热惯量都低于渍害田;各指标的多年平均值也具有类似差别;渍害田的EVI在6、7月份比正常农田高, 可能是由于渍害田在雨、热、肥条件同时良好时比正常农田生长的更快。研究结果可为进一步准确识别渍害田空间分布及其动态变化     

两晋以来气候变化对太湖流域稻麦两熟复种的影响

太湖流域的稻麦两熟复种大约产生于东晋南朝时期（317～589年）,此后这一种植制度长期存在,并不断有所发展。考察发现,此一区域的稻麦两熟在历史上的大多数时候并无突出的季节矛盾,只是有两个时期例外。这两个时期一是明末清初,一是19世纪。太湖流域历史上突出的季节矛盾不由人口、品种等社会原因引起,而由气候变化这一自然因素导致。明末清初和19世纪分别是历史上最为寒冷的时期,是气候变冷造成了这一区域稻麦两熟突出的季节矛盾