Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

浅议保险对企业安全监督管理之作用

通过开展适合于保险和安全监管工作的风险评估体系的研究,充分发挥保险于安全监管的作用,从而为降低职工、企业乃至全社会的风险水平,为经济的可持续发展和社会稳定提供必要的保证。     

滇池疏浚底泥中重金属在4种蔬菜中的累积效应及其风险评价

滇池疏浚底泥富含有机质和N、P等营养成分,农用可提高土壤保水肥能力,有利于植物生长发育,但是存在重金属污染问题。通过盆栽及田间实验,对生菜、白菜、棒菜和萝卜4种蔬菜施用疏浚底泥作为有机肥进行种植,分析疏浚底泥农用后,其重金属含量对蔬菜的影响,并对其进行风险评价。结果表明,盆栽实验中,应将底泥的施用量控制在5%（0.05 kg·kg-1）以内。田间实验中,叶菜类蔬菜种植应将底泥的施用量控制在1.6 kg·m-2以下,块茎类蔬菜种植应将底泥的施用量控制在2.4 kg·m-2以下。风险评价采用富集系数（BCF）,以及内梅罗污染指数。盆栽实验中叶菜类蔬菜BCF均为Cd >Pb >Zn >Cu,而块茎类组分BCF均为Cd >Zn >Pb >Cu;田间实验中叶菜类蔬菜BCF均为Zn >Cd >Pb >Cu,茎块类蔬菜BCF为Zn >Cd >Cu >Pb。化学致癌物Cd引起的平均健康风险均低于国际辐射防护委员会（ICRP）推荐的最大的终生可接受风险水平;而非化学致癌物Pb、Zn、Cu引起的健康风险以Zn最大,Pb次之,Cu最小,且所有非致癌物健康风险均远低于英国皇家协会、瑞典环境保护局及荷兰建设环境部等推荐的终生可接受风险水平。     

基于三角随机模拟和ArcGIS的河流水环境健康风险评价模型

基于河流水环境系统中随机性、模糊性等多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将三角模糊数与随机模拟方法相耦合,构建了三角随机模拟模型,并将其应用到湘江(长沙段)的健康风险评价中。通过将各参数浓度进行三角模糊化和随机模拟,结果表明,各断面污染物造成的健康风险的变化趋势,总体沿湘江上游至下游逐步降低,表现为昭山 > 猴子石 > 五一桥 > 橘子洲 > 乔口 > 三汊矶,且昭山、三汊矶断面和乔口断面均有恶化趋势。相对于常规的确定性方法,本模型能够得出评价区域健康风险的可能值区间及其相应的概率水平等定量信息,更加客观、全面地表征评价区域的风险状态及其空间分布差异,为决策者提供更多有用的信息。     

基于多元统计分析的渭河西咸段水质评价

基于2012年旱季和雨季的水质监测数据,采用主成分分析(PCA)和绝对主成分多元线性回归分析(APCS-MLR)方法对渭河西咸段水体的污染特征进行了综合评价。结果表明,2012年渭河西咸段水体主要以有机污染和富营养化污染为主,同时存在一定的As污染。总体上,研究水体旱季比雨季污染严重,旱季和雨季提取的主成分及大部分断面综合排名不同,说明降雨对水质产生一定的影响。渭河西咸段水体在皂河入渭之前的上游污染相对较轻,污染贡献以干流排污为主;对应的下游水质较差,皂河是其最大的污染源。     

铅锌冶炼厂周边重金属的空间分布及生态风险评价

以关中西部某铅锌厂周边农田为对象,研究了厂区周边土壤中7种重金属含量的水平及垂直分布特征,用Lars Hakanson潜在生态危害指数对重金属的危害程度进行了评价.研究表明,厂区周围土壤中重金属在水平分布上具有局部高度富集的特征.以厂区为中心,重金属水平分布主要在西北-东南方向上,地势低的土壤中重金属含量明显较高;重金属在垂直分布上主要富集在0～ 25 cm的表层土壤中,且随着深度的进一步增加,土壤中重金属浓度变化幅度减弱,基本趋于稳定.厂区周边Cd和Hg污染水平为重度污染,Pb污染水平为中度污染,潜在生态危害程度为重度.     

Risk Assessment of 26 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) Compounds in Parkıng Garages

The aim of this study was to determine the level of 26 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at parking garages and to provide the necessary annual information based on occupational inhalation exposure and non-occupational inhalation exposure, which carry risks for the environment. For this purpose, 22 samples were collected continuously from both gas and particulates phase PAHs from two parking garages at Konya City Center, Turkey. The exposure-based risk of these samples was evaluated using concentrations of the carcinogenic PAH compounds. None of the 26 PAHs measured had values exceeding the recommended exposure limits (RELs) standard values for inhalation rate recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Exposure levels of gas and particulate PAHs for the occupational group and the public (children and adults who spend time in shopping centers) were found to be 0.07–28.24 μgm^?3 and 0.05–5.753 μgm^?3, respectively, representing levels two to four times higher than those at the control site. Maximum daily inhalation of B[a]Py was estimated at 1.33 ngd^?1 for exposure of the public and as 274 ngd^?1 for the occupational group. It is believed that traffic makes a substantial contribution to the PAH profile, which had relatively high concentrations of naphthalene (Napth) and coronene (Coro). Highly carcinogenic dibenzo(a,l)pyrene (B[al]Pyre) was found in the ambient air at two parking garages. Napth and phenanthrene (Phen) were the main compounds found in nearly all the tested samples. In this study, benzo[e]pyrene (B[e]Py) was used as a reference for PAHs because its concentration is stable and does not change seasonally. Considering the importance of these compounds in relation to human health, the aim of this work was to characterize and quantify the more toxic PAHs in parking garages. Conducting PAH sampling and their chemical analysis is very costly and labor intensive. This study produced data that can be a powerful tool for environmental forensics.     

Twentieth century droughts and agriculture: Examples from impacts on soybean production in Kentucky,USA

Drought is a significant natural hazard that slowly evolves over time. Because of its character, drought is difficult to monitor and impacts are often poorly documented. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors that are prone to drought. The objective of this research is to assess the impacts of drought on soybean production and revenue in Kentucky. Soybeans are one of Kentucky’s most important commodities. In this study, impacts of 1930–1931, 1940–1942, 1952–1955, 1987–1988, 1999–2000, and 2007 droughts were considered. It was found that over the recent years, up to 56 % of the revenue from soybeans was lost due to drought. During the first half of the twentieth century, revenue loss reached up to 77 %. This research is valuable to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of impacts of past droughts will help identify drought vulnerabilities and results in better risk management and mitigation.     

污染场地总石油类馏分分段法风险评估

在对某汽车工业污染场地开展土壤与地下水环境调查的基础上,根据《污染场地风险评估技术导则》中的推荐模型,采用馏分分段法对总石油类进行风险评估研究。结果表明,1)该场地主要污染物为总石油类,土壤污染物中C12~C16脂肪烃的非致癌危害商在敏感用地和非敏感用地两种用地方式下均大于1,地下水污染物中C8~C10脂肪烃、C12~C16脂肪烃、C16~C21脂肪烃、C21~C34脂肪烃、C21~C35芳香烃的非致癌危害商在两种用地方式下均远大于1;2)敏感用地方式下,土壤中总石油类的修复限值为1 023.92mg/kg,地下水中总石油类的修复限值为1.805 mg/L;3)非敏感用地方式下,土壤中总石油类修复限值为3 292.92 mg/kg,地下水中总石油类的修复限值为11.457 mg/L。     

Investigation of the propensity of sulfide concentrates to spontaneous combustion in storage

Spontaneous combustion of sulfide concentrates can cause many serious problems during storage. In this study, two representative samples (sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate and iron-rich sulfide concentrate) were investigated for the self-heating behavior using the crossing-point temperature (CPT) method. The corresponding apparent activation energies were determined, 13.7366 kJ/mol for iron-rich sulfide concentrate and 21.3817 kJ/mol for sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate. Furthermore, the surface temperatures of sulfide concentrate stockpiles in different seasons were also measured by a thermal image apparatus. It was found the temperature for iron-rich sulfide concentrate stockpile was higher than that for rich-sulfur sulfide concentrate stockpile. These research results show iron-rich sulfide concentrate exhibits stronger propensity to spontaneous combustion than sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate. Particular attention should be paid to the fire hazard of iron-rich sulfide concentrate in daily safety check work. The combination of the CPT method with the infrared thermal image measurement provides a new approach for the risk assessment on the propensity of sulfide concentrates to spontaneous combustion during the production, storage and transportation. The useful data and experience achieved in this investigation can be also referenced in similar cases later.