期权理论在排污权初始分配中的应用

排污权交易是当前总量控制目标下最具潜力的环境政策,它兼有环境质量保障和成本效率优化的特点.在对国内外排污权交易和初始分配充分考察的基础上,提出了在排污权初次分配中引入期权机制的尝试,并对这种方法的理论基础作了分析和讨论.     

Climate Change Policy in European Countries and its effects on industry

In this paper we discuss the effects ofdifferent climate change policies onindustrial activity and on welfare. Wecompare the effects of carbon taxes andgrandfathered permits and the effects ofexemptions for energy-intensive industries.We survey first the insights from economictheory and from model experiments for theUS. Next we use a general equilibrium modelto assess the effect of different climatechange policies on industrial activity persector and per member country in the EU. Wepay particular attention to the effects ofpolicies where one EU member state exemptsits energy-intensive sectors from abatementefforts. The main findings are that, in theEU, the effects on industrial activity andthe welfare costs of tradable permits orcarbon taxes are small when no industrialsectors are exempted. When one membercountry exempts its energy intensivesector, this will reduce somewhat theimpact on its activity level but willgenerate an extra welfare cost for theEU.     

Interregional burden-sharing of greenhouse gas mitigation in the United States

Emissions trading is anattractive candidate for implementinggreenhouse gas mitigation, because it canpromote both efficiency and equity. Thispaper analyzes the interregional impacts ofalternative allocations of carbon dioxideemission permits within the U.S. Theanalysis is performed with the aid of anonlinear programming model for ten EPARegions and for six alternative permitdistribution formulas. The reason thatvarious alternatives need to be consideredis that there is no universal consensus onthe best definition of equity. Advanceknowledge of absolute and relative regionaleconomic impacts provides policy-makerswith a stronger basis for making thechoice. The analysis yields several usefulresults. First, the simulations indicatethat no matter how permits are allocated,this policy instrument can substantiallyreduce the cost of GHG mitigation for theU.S. in comparison to a system of fixedquotas for each of its regions. Interestingly, the welfare impacts ofseveral of the allocation formulas differonly slightly despite the large differencesin their philosophical underpinnings. Also, the results for some equity criteriadiffer greatly from their application inthe international domain. For example, theEgalitarian (per capita) criterion resultsin the relatively greatest cost burdenbeing incurred by one of the regions of theU.S. with the lowest per capita income.     

THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIATION ON THE ESTIMATION OF LOW FLOWS USED TO PROTECT WATER QUALITY: A NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historical flow records are used to estimate the regulatory low flows that serve a key function in setting discharge permit limits through the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, which provides a nationwide mechanism for protecting water quality. Use of historical records creates an implicit connection between water quality protection and climate variability. The longer the record, the more likely the low flow estimate will be based on a broad set of climate conditions, and thus provides adequate water quality protection in the future. Unfortunately, a long record often is not available at a specific location. This analysis examines the connection between climate variability and the variability of biologically based and hydrologically based low flow estimates at 176 sites from the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network, a collection of stream gages identified by the USGS as relatively free of anthropogenic influences. Results show that a record of 10 to 20 years is necessary for satisfactory estimates of regulatory low flows. Although it is possible to estimate a biologically based low flow from a record of less than 10 years, these estimates are highly uncertain and incorporate a bias that undermines water quality protection.     

Choice of teenagers' vehicles and views on vehicle safety: survey of parents of novice teenage drivers

Objective

To examine parental decisions about vehicles driven by teenagers and parental knowledge of vehicle safety.

Methods

About 300 parents were interviewed during spring 2006 in Minnesota, North Carolina, and Rhode Island while teenagers took their first on-road driving tests.

Results

Fewer than half of parents surveyed said teenagers would be the primary drivers of the chosen vehicles. Parents most often cited safety, existing family vehicle, and reliability when explaining the choices for their teenagers’ vehicles. About half of the vehicles intended for teenagers were small/mini/sports cars, pickups, or SUVs — vehicles considered less safe for teenagers than midsize/large cars or minivans. A large majority of vehicles were 2001 models or earlier. Vehicles purchased in anticipation of adding a new driver to the family were more likely to be the sizes/types considered less safe than vehicles already owned. Few parents insisted on side airbags or electronic stability control, despite strong evidence of their safety benefits. Even when asked to identify ideal vehicles for their teenagers to drive, about half of parents identified less safe vehicle sizes/types. Most parents knew that midsize/large vehicles are safer than small vehicles, and at least half of parents said SUVs and pickups are not safe for teenage drivers, citing instability.

Conclusions

The majority of parents understood some of the important criteria for choosing safe vehicles for their teenagers. However, parents actually selected many vehicles for teenagers that provide inferior crash protection.

Impact on industry

Vehicle safety varies substantially by vehicle size, type, and safety features. Many teenagers are driving inferior vehicles in terms of crashworthiness and crash avoidance.     

浅谈中国排污许可证制度

排污许可证制度作为我国环境管理八项基本制度的核心,虽然已有十余年的推行实践经验,但还存在污染物排放总量控制基础不牢固,缺乏相应的实施细则和行政、刑事处罚办法支撑等缺憾。加强环境保护行政管理部门的人员和技术力量,完善相应的行政、刑事处罚办法和细则,突出排污许可证制度的核心地位并增强实践经验交流等,是我国全面推行排污许可证制度并提高管理效率的重要措施和途径。     

湖域工业点源初始排污权配置定额模型与算法研究

针对湖域工业点源初始排污权定额配置问题,以“公平、效率、可行”为配置原则,通过引入权重系数的字典序最小化最大值方法,构建了基于多主体多种初始排污权多期配置的字典序定额模型,并给出求解算法。进而以江苏省太湖流域27类主要工业行业的初始氨氮排污权单期配置为例,从行业初始排污权短缺率与行业治污效益两方面,对比分析了基于等短缺率定额模型、等环境容量比例定额模型、字典序定额模型计算得到的3种定额配置方案效果。结果表明：相对于另外两种定额模型,字典序定额模型所得配置方案可实现平均行业短缺率最小(4613%),平均行业治污效益最大。研究也表明在“公平、效率、可行”配置原则下,字典序定额配置方法能够更为有效的促进企业治污技术提标升级和区域产业结构升级     

Disequilibrium and Indivisibility of Pollution Control Equipment Under a Permit-Trading System: A Case Study of Kao-Hsiung and Ping-Tung Counties in Taiwan

A mixed-integer programming model that minimizes the social abatement cost is used to investigate whether a market equilibrium condition could be reached in a newly proposed permit-trading market for nitrogen oxide control in Taiwan. Unlike in previous studies, unit pollution abatement cost is determined endogenously by incorporating technology adoption as a binary decision variable. The results show that when technologies are lumpy and irreversible, disequilibrium might occur due to firms’ inability to manage their emission levels after installing equipment with fixed size and control capacity.

Wetland development trends in coastal North Carolina,USA, from 1970 to 1984

Coastal wetlands are a valuable resource to North Carolina, USA, representing important habitat for marine organisms and providing flood control areas and buffer zones from marine storms. An analysis of wetland development trends in coastal North Carolina from 1970 to 1984 was conducted using over 3000 files containing 15 years of permitting records. The total amount of coastal wetland area altered due to authorized development under the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA), the Dredge and Fill Law, and Section 404 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act is 1740 ha. This represents nearly 2% of the salt marsh wetlands along the coast of North Carolina. The number of permits issued steadily increased during the 1980s; however, the total amount of wetland loss decreased each year. A few large projects in the early 1970s accounted for nearly 70% of all wetland area developed during the 15-year period. Nearly two-thirds of all projects involving wetland destruction involved impacts on high marsh ecosystems. Bulkheads, canals, and filling activities made up 80% of the projects requiring permits; 62% of the permits were issued to private landowners, but this group accounted for only 16% of the losses of wetland area. Utility companies, which accounted for less than 1% of the permits issued, were responsible for 46% of the permitted wetland loss during the 15-year study period. Future studies should address agriculture and forestry practices which are exempt under CAMA laws and therefore their effects on wetland alteration have not been quantified.     

The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program

In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market. In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences, especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from that of smaller ones. This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance & Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.”