分层开采工艺对地表沉降的影响研究

分层开采是厚煤开采的经典工艺,这种工艺对地表沉降的影响比较复杂。通过测试原岩物理力学参数,利用有限元软件flac3D对分层和一次采全高时地表沉降进行了数值模拟。结果表明,如果采高较小,砌体梁距煤层较近,且采完上分层后长时间停采,给顶板再生留足时间,分层开采较一次采全高对地表沉降影响要小。     

Experience in quantitative analysis of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka

Quantitative methods have been applied to the study of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka. The results show that Samarskaya Luka is a floristically heterogeneous area in which six elementary floras can be distinguished. This area has been assessed as a floristically autonomous formation, and its floristic representativeness was estimated.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market

In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market.     

社会和谐与可持续发展

本文运用系统科学原理阐释了社会和谐的内涵,指出社会和谐须以人与自然和谐为基础,以人与人之间的平等、友爱和同合作为表征,其构建与实现应遵从人类社会的演化规律,依赖予在把握人类社会需求演绎、协同人与自然关系的基础上推动生产力的高效有序发展和自然资源、生态环境的可持续支持.进而从可持续发展角度,提出了人与自然和谐的"双剩余理论",以揭示其间的供瓣枧理和协同准则;推导出了社会收益分配的相对公平系数,以衡量人与人公平要求下的社会和谐.针对国情和战略目标要求,提出了以加强小城镇建设为轴心的城市、小城镇与农村人流、物流、财流和信息流合理聚散的"三元结构"发展模式,以促进我国和谐社会的建设和可持续发展战略的有序实践.     

焦化废水处理过程中固相物质的形成及处置方法评价

焦化废水处理过程中产生的焦油、污泥和结晶杂盐等固相物质,既有资源属性,又有污染特性,但目前缺乏基于能源、经济及环境影响方面的评估.本研究阐述了3类固相物质的形成机制,建立了质量当量计算及处置方法评价模型.以宝武集团韶关钢铁股份有限公司焦化厂（二期）焦化废水处理工程的A/O/H/O（厌氧/好氧/水解/好氧）流化床工艺作为考察对象,利用工程运行参数和水质统计数据进行固相物质的产量推算,结果发现,焦油、物化污泥、生物污泥（含水率为80%）和工业杂盐的产率分别为0.186、5.80、4.24和1.97 kg·m^-3.通过处置方法评价模型明确了焦油焚烧、污泥热解、结晶杂盐分盐提纯后工业应用是最佳处置方案,在60 m³·h^-1废水处理规模的固相物质处置过程中,每年约产生1177 MWh的能源,获得135.0万元的经济效益,排放627.0 t CO₂,表明能源回收、经济效益和环境影响的协同存在.     

科技创新投入对环境全要素生产率的影响机制

使用2004~2015年的中国280个地级市的面板数据,对科技创新投入与环境全要素生产率间的非线性关系、内部影响机理和空间异质性进行分析,结果显示：科技创新投入与环境全要素生产率之间呈现倒N型关系,两个拐点的位置分别为7.722（2257.47万元）和9.610（14913.17万元）;在外部资本进入、污染治理、市场规模效应3种影响路径中,科技创新投入影响下的外部资本进入对环境全要素生产率依然存在污染避难所的负向效应,科技创新投入与外部资本间效应为0.1363,外部资本与环境全要素生产率间效应为-0.0065;科技创新投入能够增强企业的污染治理技术并提高环境全要素生产率,三者间前后效应分别为-0.0277和-0.0311;科技创新的投入与高效益增强了市场规模效应,有效促进生产结构的转型进而提高环境全要素生产率,三者间前后效应为0.0186和0.4346.空间异质性中,外部资本进入与溢出效应带来的污染避难所负效应在中部地区显著,在西部和东北部地区不显著,而污染天堂正效应在东部地区存在但不显著;污染创新治理投入的技术正溢出效应在东部和西部地区效应显著,在中部和东北部不显著;科技创新投入与市场需求规模效应在空间区域无差异且显著为正.建议依据科技创新投入的不同影响路径来实施空间差异化策略.     

人工智能技术对长江流域水污染治理的思考

随着经济的快速发展和城市化进程的不断加速,促使水污染严重的长江流域需从污染物去除过程的建模与优化、污水处理过程的优化控制、水污染监测系统的构建开展水污染治理研究.传统的水污染处理技术存在污染物去除效率预测精度较低、污水优化控制成本较高、水污染监测滞后效应严重的问题.人工智能技术能够有效克服上述问题,因此通过梳理国内外学者利用人工智能技术在污水污染物去除过程的建模与优化、污水处理过程的优化控制及水污染监测系统的构建等方面的研究成果,为全面加强长江流域水污染治理能力提供科学可靠的技术指导.结果表明:①利用人工神经网络技术（径向基神经网络、多层前馈网络-人工神经网络、多层感知器神经网络）对污水污染物去除过程进行建模与优化,为精确预测长江流域重金属（Cr、Cu）、营养盐（TN、TP）、持久性有机污染物〔PBDEs（多溴二苯醚）、HCH（六氯环己烷）〕的去除率提供重要参考价值.②采用污水处理的自动控制技术与人工智能技术（递归神经网络、支持向量机、模糊神经网络等）构建污水智能控制系统,为长江流域实现高效节能的污水优化控制提供重要的技术指导.③利用在线监测仪器和人工智能技术（小波神经网络、多元线性回归-人工神经网络、叠层去噪自动编码器等）建立水污染智能监测系统,为解决长江流域水污染监测响应滞后问题提供有力的技术支持.因此,人工智能技术对长江流域提高污水污染物去除率,降低污水优化控制成本,提升水污染监测时效性具有重要的推广价值.      

有机垃圾厌氧消化泡沫产生机理及控制方法

为了分析厌氧消化泡沫的产生机理和控制方法有助于解决有机垃圾厌氧消化起泡问题,本文调研了近年来报道的厌氧消化系统起泡现象,并从底物特性、反应器构造及运行条件和消化过程相关特性3方面分析了不同底物、工艺和环境条件下厌氧消化反应器的起泡机理;讨论了丝状菌指数、表面张力、粘度、有机负荷、起泡趋势和泡沫稳定性等参数作为起泡风险评价指标的合理性;介绍和比较了4类消泡方法（物理法、机械法、生物法和化学法）的消泡原理及优缺点.目前,除污泥厌氧消化系统外,其他有机垃圾厌氧消化系统起泡的主要因素尚不明确,而这也限制了泡沫控制方法的开发.后期探索关键起泡微生物或研究生物表面活性物质与起泡的相关性,将有助于从新的角度揭示起泡机理,并开发出针对性更强的泡沫控制方法.     

我国饲料粮区域产消平衡特征及政策启示

我国饲料粮消耗量大且增长迅速,已经成为我国粮食安全的首要影响因素,准确判断我国饲料粮的区域产消平衡特征对农业相关政策的制订具有重要的现实意义。论文在详细分析各省区不同畜牧产品粮食转化系数的基础上,对区域饲料粮的产消平衡状态及其原因进行了研究。结果显示：1）近年来我国饲料粮消费量快速上升,由2000年的21 730万t增长到2015年的30 549万t,15 a间增长了8 819万t。2）2015年生猪饲料粮消耗量最大,比例达到了44.4%,占据了我国饲料消耗总量的半壁江山。其次为禽蛋与禽肉消耗,消费占比分别为15.8%与12.7%;牛肉、羊肉、牛奶与水产品的饲料粮消费量比例均在5%~9%之间。3）2015年全国饲料粮总计短缺4 276万t,区域上呈现“北余南缺”的格局,东北黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古三省（区）成为我国最重要的饲料粮供应区域。从粮食转换系数与饲养结构来看,“北粮南运”现象是粮食资源的合理配置。论文提出三点政策建议：1）转变消费结构,增加牛肉与牛奶的消费量;2）推动“以粮为纲”向“粮经饲”三元种植结构转变;3）充分利用国际市场,从全球视角保护粮食安全。