Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market

In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market.     

企业开展HSE危害识别及风险评估的现状与对策

结合本单位建立与实施HSE管理体系实际，分析了企业开展危害识别与风险评估中常见的问题，提出了解决问题的初步方法。     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

长江经济带突发水污染风险分区研究

长江经济带突发水污染事件频发,对区域人群健康和生态安全造成严峻挑战.环境风险分区是环境风险管理的基础和有效工具.本研究以2015年为基准年,基于环境统计数据、DEM数据、水质监测断面数据和基础地理数据,综合考虑了水系流向、水系级别及水质等因素,以1 km×1 km的网格为基本单元,对长江经济带开展突发水污染风险分区.结果表明:①高风险区面积为3348.9 km~2,占评估区总面积的0.16%;较高风险区面积为26030.7 km~2,占比1.27%;中风险区面积为97971.1 km~2,占比4.79%;低风险区面积为1916838.7 km~2,占比93.77%;②从沿长江干流两岸分布来看,高风险区面积沿长江上游至下游呈逐渐增加趋势,主要集中分布在重庆市中部、湖北省东部、安徽省东部、江苏省中西部、浙江省北部、上海市西部等地;③从沿长江主要支流两岸分布来看,高风险区主要分布在嘉陵江南段、乌江南段、汉水东段、湘江北段、赣江北段等.研究结果可为长江经济带生态环境管理提供科学依据.     

浙江典型海湾潮间带沉积物污染及生态风险评价

基于浙江4个典型海湾潮间带表层沉积物重金属元素Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Cd、Hg、As和多氯联苯（PCB）的调查结果,探究其污染特征、潜在生态风险和来源.结果表明,海湾潮间带表层沉积物Cd、Hg、As、PCB含量均符合国家海洋沉积物质量Ⅰ类标准;42%、9%、3%、12%站位的Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr符合国家海洋沉积物质量II类标准,1%站位的Cu和Zn符合国家海洋沉积物质量III类标准.区域污染程度（PLI_zone）依次为乐清湾 > 三门湾 > 象山港 > 杭州湾,乐清湾潮间带沉积环境为中等污染,杭州湾、象山港和三门湾潮间带沉积环境无污染.区域生态风险（RI）依次为乐清湾 > 杭州湾 > 三门湾 > 象山港,乐清湾和杭州湾潮间带沉积物为中潜在生态风险,三门湾和象山港潮间带沉积物为低潜在生态风险.Cd是首要的潜在生态风险因子,Cd对杭州湾、象山港、三门湾、乐清湾潜在生态风险指数（RI）的贡献分别为63%、54%、58%和55%.生活污水、工农业和交通污染是浙江典型海湾潮间带重金属和PCB的主要来源.     

陆浑水库沉积物重金属空间分布特征及风险评价

为了解洛阳市饮用水水源地陆浑水库沉积物中重金属污染程度,采集32个点位的表层沉积物,分析6种重金属（Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb和Zn）的空间分布特征,并运用地累积指数法、潜在生态风险指数和聚类分析等方法对研究区重金属污染程度进行评价、生态风险评价及源解析.结果表明：Cd、Cu、Pb和Zn含量超过黄河流域河南段重金属土壤背景值,分别是其8.8、2.0、6.5、2.3倍,重金属存在明显富集,且主要污染集中于坝前区域.地累积指数法评价结果显示,Cd为强污染,Pb为中-强污染.潜在生态风险指数表明,陆浑水库沉积物重金属风险呈自上游至下游逐渐增强的趋势,总体处于高度生态危害,潜在生态风险指数均值达到312.94,其中Cd为主要贡献因子.富集系数法和聚类分析结果显示：Cd、Cu、Pb和Zn主要为人为源,Cr和Pb以自然源为主.总体而言,陆浑水库沉积物中重金属Cd和Pb污染相对较重,可能会对水库水环境构成威胁.     

北方湖库沉积物重金属区域特征及生态风险评价

以白洋淀、衡水湖、于桥水库、松花湖、大伙房水库和小兴凯湖沉积作为研究对象,通过对北方六湖库沉积物中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni等重金属元素进行分析,并与国内外其他水域重金属污染情况进行多因素比较,探讨了六湖库主要重金属污染源的差异性,区域分布特征以及与国内外其他水域污染的相似性和区别.结果表明,六湖库沉积物重金属污染处于中等偏下水平.六湖库之间主要重金属污染源存在差别.沉积物重金属含量未出现明显上升的趋势.其中Zn、Pb存在富集现象,但Pb含量与历史数据相比出现下降,Zn的含量与其他地区相比整体偏高.大伙房水库沉积物重金属污染较重,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni含量平均值分别为56.28,142.3,17.44,97.9,44.44mg/kg.小兴凯湖沉积物重金属含量最低,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni含量平均值分别为2.41,63.90,13.37,56.36,26.09mg/kg.六湖库综合风险评价结果为大伙房水库>于桥水库>白洋淀>衡水湖>松花湖>小兴凯湖,重金属整体潜在生态风险指数为低.     

水稻秸秆生物炭中铜和镉的形态分布及释放特性

由于目前缺乏对生物质原料来源的管控办法,极有可能用产自受污染农田土壤的秸秆制备出具有高重金属含量的生物炭,因此,研究生物炭中重金属的形态分布及其释放特性对于防控生物炭应用产生的环境风险具有重要意义.基于此,分别采集江西省贵溪铜冶炼厂周边九牛岗污染区和中国科学院鹰潭红壤生态实验站清洁区种植的水稻秸秆制备生物炭（分别记为“九牛岗生物炭”和“红壤站生物炭”）,分析两种生物炭中Cu、Cd的含量及其化学形态分布,考察不同固液比及pH对生物炭中Cu、Cd浸出的影响.结果表明:九牛岗生物炭中Cu、Cd的总量（以w计）分别为119.99、3.83 mg/kg,显著高于红壤站生物炭（19.50、0.96 mg/kg）.尽管九牛岗生物炭中w（酸溶态Cu）、w（酸溶态Cd）显著高于红壤站生物炭,但在形态分布上,九牛岗生物炭中Cu、Cd主要为相对稳定态（可氧化态和残渣态）,二者占比分别为80.3%、76.7%,高于红壤站生物炭（二者占比分别为53.2%、48.0%）.高固液比和低pH可有效增加两种生物炭中Cu、Cd的浸出毒性,其中,九牛岗生物炭在固液比为1:20和1:60时,浸出液中ρ（Cu）、ρ（Cd）均超过GB/T 14848—2017《地下水质量标准》中Ⅱ类标准限值.动力学及累积释放试验表明,两种生物炭中的部分Cu、Cd可在短时间内迅速释放而后逐渐平稳并有上升趋势,且九牛岗生物炭中Cu、Cd释放量显著高于红壤站生物炭.研究显示,来自污染区水稻秸秆生物炭中的Cu、Cd活性显著高于清洁区生物炭,具有更高的环境风险.