Development and evaluation of RAMP I – a practitioner’s tool for screening of musculoskeletal disorder risk factors in manual handling

RAMP I is a screening tool developed to support practitioners in screening for work-related musculoskeletal disorder risk factors related to manual handling. RAMP I, which is part of the RAMP tool, is based on research-based studies combined with expert group judgments. More than 80 practitioners participated in the development of RAMP I. The tool consists of dichotomous assessment items grouped into seven categories. Acceptable reliability was found for a majority of the assessment items for 15 practitioners who were given 1?h of training. The usability evaluation points to RAMP I being usable for screening for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, i.e., usable for assessing risks, being usable as a decision base, having clear results and that the time needed for an assessment is acceptable. It is concluded that RAMP I is a usable tool for practitioners.     

洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Impact of floodplain and Stage 0 stream restoration on flood attenuation and floodplain exchange during small frequent storms

River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization.     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market

In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market.     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

企业开展HSE危害识别及风险评估的现状与对策

结合本单位建立与实施HSE管理体系实际，分析了企业开展危害识别与风险评估中常见的问题，提出了解决问题的初步方法。     

生态系统服务功能及其价值核算

生态系统服务功能是指生态系统服务与生态系统功能的综合，指生态系统与生态过程所形成及所维持的人类赖以生存的自然环境条件与效用，生态系统服务功能对于人类生存发展具有重要的价值，应该在社会经济体系中得以体现，本文探讨了生态系统服务功能的类型，价值核算方法与理论及其应用研究在完善国民经济核算体系、促进可持续发展等方面的重要意义，并对今后发展进行了展望。     

Study on Assessing Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Regions

The main purpose of this study is to assess economic vulnerability of small island development regions as part of their sustainability constraints. By combining economic and environmental time series data, we assessed a composite index of economic vulnerability which is constructed from three exogenous variables, namely economic exposure, economic remoteness, and economic impact of environmental and natural disasters. We used the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan as the case studies for this paper.The results indicated that using a gross island products based valuation index, Kikaijima is the most vulnerable island in the Amami Islands with a composite economic vulnerability index (CEVI) value of 0.678, while by using a per capita based index, Okinoerabujima is considered the most vulnerable island with a CEVI value of 0.680. From the results we also revealed that smaller islands have relative higher vulnerability than the bigger one, which also confirms some previous country-level vulnerability studies.However, it is matter of fact that some islands that have relatively high vulnerability also have good economic performance as shown by their per capita income. In this regard, it can be argued that the success of these small islands could have been achieved in spite of and not because of their inherent vulnerability conditions as an indicator of sustainability constraint. Regarding these findings, we also examined a comparison between vulnerability results and the preliminary concept of an island's resilience in order to capture another perspective on sustainability assessment in a small island region.