Disease Surveillance and Control After a Flood: Khartoum, Sudan, 1988

Following a flood in Khartoum, Sudan, emergency disease surveillance was implemented to monitor the health status of the population. Simple, symptom-oriented case definitions for diarrheal disease, measles, respiratory disease, malaria, and jaundice were included on the report form used to collect daily counts of outpatients in a sample of both temporary and permanent clinics located in areas of the city most affected by the flood. Data collected from major teaching hospitals allowed comparison of pre- and post-disaster levels of morbidity and mortality. In addition, special surveys collected information unobtainable from health facilities. Sentinel clinic surveillance data indicated that diarrheal disease accounted for the greatest number of clinic visits, while malaria was the second most common reason for seeking medical attention. Malaria blood smear surveys showed that the parasitemia prevalence ranged from 11% to 19% in the general population and from 21% to 46% among febrile clinic patients. Hospital admission data demonstrated an increase in morbidity from diarrhea and malaria in August 1988, when compared to previous months and August of the previous year, although it is uncertain whether this increase was due to the flood. Nutrition surveys demonstrated that 23% of young children were moderately or severely undernourished, with substantial variation by area of the city. No major outbreaks of communicable disease were detected in the 4 weeks after the flood. Disease surveillance provided data useful in identifying public health problems, setting priorities, targeting interventions and controlling rumors. Disease control measures taken by the Ministry of Health included provision of potable water, standardization of medical care, and distribution of immunizations, oral rehydration salts, and vitamin supplements to children.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Malaria is a leading and severe disease in Ethiopia, particularly like the Tigray region. The main objectives of the study were to model the influence of climate change on malaria transmission in Tigray and identify environmental variables that contribute to malaria. Aiming these objectives, Kafta Humera, Raya Azebo and Laelay Adiabo districts were purposively selected based on their malaria prevalence. Two hundred and nine mosquito occurrence points were collected from the study area. Collected occurrence points, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables were run in Maxent software. Malaria transmission was simulated for themiddle and end of the twenty-first century using two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios driving ensemble of three general circulation models. The results show that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase by 93.8% (RCP4.5) and 113.9% (RCP8.5) by mid-century and by 161% (RCP4.5) and 149% (RCP8.5) by the end of the twenty-first century, when compared with the historical baseline. This indicates that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase due to climate change over the region. Therefore, the study recommends well prevention and control of malaria to ensure the health of people.     

防震减灾中卫星遥感技术应用分析

卫星遥感技术在减轻自然灾害中发押了十分重要的作用，但也不得不指出，卫星遥感技术在防震减灾工作中，无论在国内或国外均尚未得到有效的应用。这一方面固然是由于地震事件十分复杂，地震孕育和发生的规律尚未搞清，难以发挥卫得遥感技术的作用，另一方面也由中以使用的卫星技术的分辨率还不够高，重复观察的周期长，限制了这一技术在防震减灾工作中的应用。有鉴于近感技术的分辨率还不够高，重复观察的周期长，限制了这一技术在防     

Satellite Observations of Lava Lake Activity at Nyiragongo Volvano, Ex-Zaire, during the Rwandan Refugee Crisis

In June 1994 the summit crater of Nyiragongo volcano, located in the Great Lakes region of central Africa, began to fill with new lava, ending nearly 12 years of quiescence. An earlier eruption of the volcano in 1977 had culminated in the catastrophic draining of a lava lake through fissures in the crater wall, feeding highly mobile lava flows which reached the outskirts of Goma and killed more than 70 people. By July 1994, as many as 20,000 Hutu refugees were arriving in Goma every hour, only 18km south from the summit of Nyiragongo. The exodus brought more than one million people to the camps near the town raising fears of a repeat of the 1977 eruption. This paper examines the role that satellite remote sensing could have played in surveillance of the volcano during this time, and demonstrates the potential for monitoring this and other volcanoes in the future. Images recorded by the spaceborne Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) – freely available over the Internet – provide semi-quantitative information on the activity of the volcano. The aim of this paper is to promote the wider use of readily available technologies.     

The Association between El Niño/Southern Oscillation Events and Typhoons in the Marshall Islands

An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the east, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, generates typhoons further to the west. The results suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71 per cent chance of a typhoon striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26 per cent chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year. This has implications for planning and public safety, which the relevant authorities may wish to take note of.     

Exploring the use of satellite images in the estimation of potential malaria outbreak regions

Malaria outbreaks affect nearly 40 per cent of the earth's population, most of whom live in tropical and subtropical zones. Malaria is an infectious disease that is transferred by the female mosquito of the species Anopheles. The life cycle of the malaria parasite develops in the anopheline and in the human body. These parasites require suitable environmental conditions in order to complete their development cycles within the mosquito. The relevant parameters are temperature, humidity, vegetation and water. A temperature range of 25–35°C and relative humidity range of 50–80 per cent is suitable for developing malaria outbreaks. As the fly-range of the mosquito is limited to 2–4 km, and since water pools are necessary for breeding, the vector abundance is significantly higher around water bodies. Vegetation cover also has an indirect role on malaria vector abundance. To seek to locate the regions with high potential for malaria outbreaks, we have constructed an experimental map of above-mentioned parameters via remote sensing images. A 7ETM⁺ image of Landsat platform is used in this study and maps of parameters such as land surface temperature, air temperature, air humidity, water pools and vegetated area were produced. However, a weighted combination of these layers showed some poor agreement with the distribution of positive malaria cases collected in the health centres in the region. The methodology first developed in this study is fast and accurate enough to be relied on for forecasting purposes, and could eventually lead—after further research and proper correlations—to improving the targeting of mitigation and relief operations by local health and related organizations.     

洋面风场的QuikSCAT/SeaWinds遥感探测

QuikSCAT卫星是监测全球气候和海洋环境的重要卫星之一，它已经被世界气象组织列为业务卫星，所得数据对天气预报、气候研究等方面有重要作用。介绍了QuikSCAT卫星的有关背景情况，星载SeaWinds散射测风计观测洋面风的原理和基本算法，说明了利用该资料在热带气旋中心定位及移向预报以及2003年淮河流域暴雨成因分析方面做了尝试性工作。最后，对该数据资料应用中存在的一些问题进行了讨论。     

Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions—including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed—tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

The UHI effect was detected in Newark and Camden in both satellite surface-temperature and meteorological station airtemperature records. The average difference in urban—nonurban minimum temperatures was 3.0 °C for the Newark area and 1.5 °C for Camden. Extrapolation of current trends and the selected global climate models (GCMs) project that temperatures in the case study areas will continue to warm in the current century, as they have over the past half-century. An initial analysis of global climate scenarios shows that wind speed may decline, and that cloud cover may increase in the coming decades. These generally small countervailing tendencies suggest that urban—nonurban temperature differences may be maintained under climate change.

Overall warmer conditions throughout the year may extend the spatial and temporal dimensions of the urban-suburban heat complex. The incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase with interactions between the increased frequency and duration of heat waves and the UHI effect. Camden and Newark will likely be subjected to higher temperatures, and areas experiencing UHI-like conditions and temperature extremes will expand. Thus, urban heat island-related hazard potential is likely to increase in a warmer climate.     

由震洪相关回顾性预测1870年长江特大洪水

１８７０ 年长江特大洪水是多因叠加和强化的结果, 因之要预测它也要从各方面去研究。如特大洪水前的先行降雨和洪水所反映的大气环流状况及太阳活动情况等。本文把１９３１ 年、１９５４年、１９９１ 年长江大洪水前一年内缅甸北部有７ 级以上大震及１９９８ 年长江大洪前一年内缅北有６级左右震群集中活动的相关指标移用于１８７０ 年长江特大洪水前, 发现其前一年, 即１８６９ 年缅北亦有７ 级以上大震发生。震洪相关的物理机制是与地震活动有关的地下放气使孟加拉湾向长江流域输送的水气更多,如遇北方冷气团南下则降大雨致洪。另外,１８７０ 年长江洪水之所以比１９３１ 年、１９５４ 年、１９９１ 年和１９９８ 年长江洪水还大, 我们认为１８７０ 年４ 月１１ 日在长江上游山区有７ 级以上大震发生, 且震前有大雪发生, 是叠加在前述致洪因素上的另一因素。     

Satellite remote sensing as a tool in Lahar disaster management

At least 40,000 deaths have been attributed to historic lahars (volcanic mudflows). The most recent lahar disaster occurred in 1998 at Casita volcano, Nicaragua, claiming over 2,500 lives. Lahars can cover large areas and be highly destructive, and constitute a challenge for disaster management. With infrastructure affected and access frequently impeded, disaster management can benefit from the synoptic coverage provided by satellite imagery. This potential has been recognisedfor other types of natural disasters, but limitations are also known. Dedicated satellite constellations for disaster response and management have been proposed as one solution. Here we investigate the utility of currently available and forthcoming optical and radar sensors as tools in lahar disaster management. Applied to the Casita case, we find that imagery available at the time could not have significantly improved disaster response. However, forthcoming satellites, especially radar, will improve the situation, reducing the benefit of dedicated constellations.     

印度大地震的可预警信息研究

20 0 1 0 1 2 6印度西北部的普杰地区发生了 7 8级强烈地震。对这次强震事件 ,利用卫星遥感监测地气系统射出长波辐射的数值产品资料 ,分析了以普杰为中心整个西亚范围内 ,事件发生前后共计 6个月的月平均辐射场的分布特征及其演变过程。发现自震前 2个月至震时当月 ,普杰地区始终是一个辐射 (热 )场的高值中心 ,震后明显消散。据此认为印度大地震有可识别的预警信息 ,提出利用卫星遥感技术及其产品 ,有可能为“突破”短临地震预报开拓出一种新的预测技术生长点     

双光谱卫星云图的模糊推理云分类

基于观测事实和分类经验,在对卫星云图上云系形态特征定性分析的基础上,采用模糊推理方法,提取出云类识别的诊断判别因子和模糊推理规则。通过对判别因子的模糊化处理和隶属度函数的调制优化,建立了卫星云图定量化的模糊推理云分类模型。4种常见云系的模糊推理分类试验结果表明,模糊推理方法在定量性、客观性和自动化等方面优于传统卫星云图目视判读方法,在卫星遥感资料的分析处理和天气预报等领域有较好的实用意义。     

青藏高原冬季积雪与河北省夏季降水

应用青藏高原地面站积雪观测资料,ＮＯＡＡ卫星观测积雪面积和美国宇航局微波遥感积雪深度等资料进行综合对比分析,确定了青藏高原冬季积雪的年际变化,在此基础上讨论了青藏高原冬季积雪状况对河北降水的影响。结果表明,青藏高原冬季多雪时,当年河北夏季降水往往偏少;青藏高原冬季少雪时,河北夏季降水往往偏多。     

REVIEW ON GLOBAL NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2000

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Mother's body mass index as a predictor of infant's nutritional status in the post-emergency phase of a flood

Maternal nutritional status is a determinant of child health. This paper studies the association between a mother's body mass index (BMI) and her infant's nutritional status over a one year time frame after the 1998 flood crisis in Bangladesh. The paper uses secondary analysis of data collected from 757 households in seven rural areas of Bangladesh affected by the 1998 flood using multiple-stage probability sampling techniques (n = 143). Logistic regression models were employed to investigate the predictive impact of maternal BMI on infant's nutritional status after controlling for a range of child and maternal factors. An underweight mother was a significant factor with regard to the risk of infants suffering stunting (odds ratio (OR) = 4.45, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-18.94) and being underweight (OR = 3.51, 95 per cent CI = 1.02-12.05) a year later, but not wasting (OR = 2.09, 95 per cent CI = 0.51-8.67). The findings suggest that there is a post-emergency link between maternal and infant nutritional health.     

利用卫星遥感技术进行干旱监测

利用2003年卫星遥感干旱监测资料和哈尔滨市土壤湿度资料，应用土壤热惯法计算和分析了黑龙江省哈尔滨市旱灾情况，提出了相应的防治措施。研究表明：这种方法在目前对裸地面进行干旱遥感监测中是定量水平较高的，对裸露土壤湿遥感精度可达到60％，根据农业气象观测规范，它可以给出土壤干旱的绝对等级。利用这一方法，计算了哈尔滨市12个县(市)不同级别干旱灾害的分布情况。     

北上台风生成和路径的卫星云图特征研究

对在太平洋上北上转向登陆日本的台风的生成和移动，利用卫星云图分析和云顶黑体温度计算作了研究。得出结论认为如果有一条或几条长达500～1000km以上的长云带卷入，且云顶黑体温度降低到-70℃以下，而-60℃的范围扩大到3×4个纬距以上，则热带低压很可能在24h以内发展成为热带风暴－台风。本文还确认，海表面温度Tss≥29℃是台风生成最重要的环境条件。通过对北上台风移动的卫星云图特征的研究，指出台风外围卷入的长云带走向往往预示着台风的未来移向。尤其是台风南部来自SW-S-SE方向的季风汇合带云带，不仅意味着台风强度的加强和维持，更预示着台风将往北移动。     

中国北方沙质荒漠化土地动态变化遥感分析

采用1975年MSS卫星图像、2000年ETM卫星图像为遥感信息源,结合地理信息系统方法,通过建立科学的沙质荒漠化土地类型和动态变化类型分类系统,对我国北方地区近25年来的沙质荒漠化土地进行了动态变化分析.结果表明:沙质荒漠化土地呈明显的发展状态,其面积明显增加,强度明显增大.其面积增加了7 369.71km 2,平均每年增加294.79km 2,发展区面积90 663.90km 2,稳定区面积140 167.06 km 2,逆转区面积69 147.33km 2,发展区的面积比逆转区的面积大21 516.57km 2.总体呈现"整体发展,局部逆转"和"面上破坏,点上治理"的变化特点.     

应用NOAA/AVHRR资料监测土壤水分和干旱面积

利用气象卫星资料监测土壤水分及估算干旱面积的研究方法已有很多,但监测精度还有待提高。通过利用近地面温度日较差实测资料,对气象卫星反演地表温度日较差进行了订正,使得热惯量计算值更接近实际。利用订正后的卫星反演地表温度日较差计算的热惯量与地面农田实测土壤绝对湿度进行回归分析,发现0~30cm土壤水分实测值与热惯量的相关显著,50cm以下不能通过显著性检验。在GIS平台的支持下,对2004年初夏发生的干旱进行了监测,监测结果精度较高,并为干旱灾害的进一步评估打下坚实的基础。