基于BP网络的水质综合评价模型及其应用

讨论了BP网络模型存在的不足及建模条件，提出了建立合理的BP网络模型的基本原则和步骤。针对水质评价问题，通过在各类水质污染指标浓度区间内生成随机分布样本的方法，组成足够多用于BP网络训练、检验和测试用的样本，建立了辽河水质综合评价的BP网络模型；给出了区分不同类别水质的模型分界值样本和模型输出分界值。     

基于IGA-BP网络的水质预测方法

针对水质预测中传统BP神经网络模型收敛速度慢,对隐层结点选取缺乏有效的手段等问题,引入了遗传算法优化BP网络的结构和隐层神经元阈值和连接权值,通过设计灵活的实数编码方案和新型交叉算子等,对实数编码遗传算法进行改进,在此基础上,提出了一种基于改进的实数编码遗传算法优化BP神经网络(IGA-BP)的水质预测新模型,并以安徽蚌埠蚌埠闸逐周水质监测的PH值数据为例,进行水质预测,通过与传统的GA-BP神经网络以及BP神经网络的水质预测模型对比,结果表明,这种预测方法训练的BP神经网络收敛速度快,样本逼近精度高且泛化能力强。     

基于人工蜂群算法与BP神经网络的水质评价模型

针对BP网络水质评价模型的不足,引入人工蜂群(ABC)算法,将求解BP神经网络各层权值、阀值的过程转化为蜜蜂寻找最佳蜜源的过程,提出了一种新的结合人工蜂群算法的BP网络水质评价方法(ABC-BP)。并以2000—2006年渭河监测断面的10组实测数据作为测试样本对其水质进行了评价,实验结果表明该方法得到的水质评价结果准确,并具有很强的稳定性和鲁棒性。     

基于集对分析的降水酸度及水质相似预测模型研究

应用集对分析法刻画历史样本之间的相似性,用多个最相似的历史样本的加权平均值作为当前样本预测值,建立了基于集对分析的降水酸度及水质相似预测模型(SFM-SPA),并运用该模型进行了降水酸度及水质预测的实例验证。结果表明,在主要影响因子选择适当、历史样本的代表性和相似性较好等限定条件下,利用模型进行环境预测是可行的,它较直观、计算简便,为环境污染预测提供了新的途径。     

基于BP神经网络的垃圾焚烧过程故障诊断

应用BP神经网络方法,建立了垃圾焚烧过程故障诊断的模型.该方法采用梯度下降法训练网络权值,利用最优停止法对网络进行了优化,避免了过拟合现象.提高了BP神经网络的训练速度和泛化能力.并以实际焚烧过程工况数据进行性能检验,检验结果表明了该BP网络具有较高的诊断精度.     

Carrousel氧化沟系统出水COD预报的神经网络模型

以河南漯河市污水净化中心的氧化沟系统为考察对象,针对该系统进水水质复杂,控制滞后的难点,引入人工神经网络的理论和方法,对其进行模拟分析,建立了基于BP网络的氧化沟系统出水COD预报模型。模型性能检验和灵敏度检验表明,建成的模型准确度高,适应性强,可直接用于该系统出水COD预报。这为氧化沟工艺在线控制提供了一条简便的途径。     

基于灰色模型和模糊神经网络的综合水质预测模型研究

水质状态变化趋势预测研究对水资源管理和维护具有重要的现实意义。提出了一种将灰色模型和模糊神经网络相结合的水质预测模型。首先基于改进的灰色模型预测出水体中各理化因子在未来一段时间内的指标变化,然后采用T-S模糊神经网络对各单因子的预测值进行数据融合,构建水质变化综合趋势预测模型,预测出下一时间段的水质整体状态指标。实验表明,这种方式用来预测湖泊水质变化趋势具有可行性;与BP网络模型相比,基于T-S模糊神经网络系统的模型具有预测精度高、模型系统稳定等优越性。     

变权组合模型在景观水体水质模拟中的应用

针对景观水体的水质模拟与预测问题,在BP神经网络和支持向量机模型的基础上,建立了权重随输入量变化的变权组合模型。该模型既能充分利用各个单一模型的优点,又能避免固定权重分配的弊端。经实例验证,与单一的BP神经网络和支持向量机模型相比,变权组合模型拟合精度更高,预测结果更为准确。     

利用复介电常数和BPAT神经网络进行环境监测的可行性研究

土壤中的污染物成分复杂，其含量与复介电常数之间具有很强的非线性关系。以土壤样品复介电常数的实部、虚部分别作为输入，以其含水率、体密度和所含6种已知离子的浓度分别作为输出，建立BP人工神经网络。把吉泰兰地区的土壤样品数据分为训练样本集和检验样本集，网络训练后，其学习效果显示模型的性能很好，检验样本的预测结果也与实测值较好吻合，说明利用复介电常数和BP人工神经网络进行环境监测是一种好的方法。     

基于径向基函数网络的溢油预测模型

为了提高溢油预测的准确性,建立和优化溢油预测模型,提出了基于径向基函数网络模型的溢油预测方法,实现溢油预测功能。径向基函数网络模型解决了模拟预测过程中样本库巨大、函数模型收敛速度慢的问题。通过选择有效的输入参数和样本数据,建立局部逼近网络;通过径向基函数训练样本数据,利用输出值与实际值之间的误差作为约束条件调整权重因子、径向基中心和宽度,加快函数模型的收敛速度。该模型模拟了溢油的漂移、扩散过程,达到预测的目的。利用该模型,建立了溢油预测模块,并针对一次溢油事故进行预测模拟,验证了该模型的可行性,能够为应急决策提供一定的支持。     

Anatomy of an urban waterbody: a case study of Boston's Muddy River

The objective of this study was to characterize and understand the water quality of Boston's Muddy River prior to restoration, to help guide those activities and evaluate their success. We use a combination of monitoring, data analysis and mathematical modeling. The seasonal pattern of temperature, pollutant signatures (identified using a principal component analysis), correlations with precipitation and spatial patterns all point to a significant wastewater input at one of the outfalls and suggest significant receiving water impact. However, a quantitative analysis using a mathematical model (QUAL2K) suggests this source is not significant. Rather, internal loading from algae, sediment bed and waterfowl dominate the spatial pattern of water quality. These results suggest significant improvement can be expected from planned sediment dredging. The paper provides a case study of water quality assessment in the context of urban river restoration, and it illustrates the utility of combining monitoring and data analysis with modeling.     

瘦西湖风光电能驱动的曝气生物接触氧化水净化系统结构与功能

在瘦西湖选择中试河段,利用太阳能风能绿色能源,研发了风光电能驱动的曝气生物接触氧化水净化系统。系统由风光互补发电子系统、曝气生物接触氧化子系统、植物生态子系统组成。风光电能驱动的曝气生物接触氧化水净化系统运行正常。按照景观娱乐用水水质标准进行水质监测,采用模糊综合评价与贴近度计算方法,进行了系统水净化功能评价。结果表明,在试验段原水水质低于景观水C类,经该系统水净化后,可以达到景观水B类。系统的开发与实验,探索了利用绿色能源河湖水净化的新途径。     

程序化的未确知测度模型用于水环境质量评价简

未确知测度模型用于水环境质量评价具有合理性。为使模型更加完善，提出将未确知测度模型建立过程标准化，使其具有通用性。并针对水质评价指标众多致评价过程复杂、计算量大的情况，利用MATLAB软件将标准化后的未确知测度模型设计为既定的程序，依靠计算机模拟来实现水质评价。通过对浮桥河水库水质的评价结果及与其他多种方法的对比，表现出标准化模型的客观性、合理性，MATLAB程序的实用性、快捷性。程序化的未确知测度模型标准化后可进行推广。     

程序化的未确知测度模型用于水环境质量评价

未确知测度模型用于水环境质量评价具有合理性。为使模型更加完善，提出将未确知测度模型建立过程标准化，使其具有通用性。并针对水质评价指标众多致评价过程复杂、计算量大的情况，利用MATLAB软件将标准化后的未确知测度模型设计为既定的程序，依靠计算机模拟来实现水质评价。通过对浮桥河水库水质的评价结果及与其他多种方法的对比，表现出标准化模型的客观性、合理性，MATLAB程序的实用性、快捷性。程序化的未确知测度模型标准化后可进行推广。     

嫩江水污染物排放总量分配方法研究

本文针对嫩江沿岸采用氧化塘处理污水的特点，为充分合理利用水环境容量，以流域总量控制的原则为指导，建立了水污染物总量分配模型，预测不同流量和不同排污情况下的水质，确定不同流量下给定水质目标的临界距离和允许排污量。     

Preliminary results of modeled ozone uptake for Fagus sylvatica L. trees at selected EU/UN-ECE intensive monitoring plots

The objective of this study was to establish whether EU and UN-ECE/ICP-Forests monitoring data (i) provide the variables necessary to apply the flux-based modeling methods and (ii) meet the quality criteria necessary to apply the flux-based critical level concept. Application of this model has been possible using environmental data collected from the EU and UN-ECE/ICP-Forests monitoring network in Switzerland and Italy for 2000-2002. The test for data completeness and plausibility resulted in 6 out of a possible total of 20 Fagus sylvatica L. plots being identified as suitable from Switzerland, Italy, Spain, and France. The results show that the collected data allow the identification of different spatial and temporal areas and periods as having higher risk to ozone than those identified using the AOT40 approach. However, it was also apparent that the quality and completeness of the available data may severely limit a complete risk assessment across Europe.     

Use of historical assessment for evaluation of process-based model projections of future environmental change: Lake acidification in the Adirondack mountains, New York, USA

Because of the considerable uncertainties associated with modeling complex ecosystem processes, it is essential that every effort be made to test model performance prior to relying on model projections for assessment of future surface water chemical response to environmental perturbation. Unfortunately, long-term chemical data with which to validate model performance are seldom available. The authors present here an evaluation of historical acidification of lake waters in the northeastern United States, and compare historical changes in a set of lakes to hindcasts from the same watershed model (MAGIC) used to estimate future changes in response to acidic deposition. The historical analyses and comparisons with MAGIC model hindcasts and forecasts of acid-base response demonstrate that the acidic and low-ANC lakes in this region are responsive to strong acid inputs. However, the model estimates suggest lakewater chemistry is more responsive to atmospheric inputs of sulfur than do the estimates based on paleolimnological historical analyses. A 'weight-of-evidence approach' that incorporates all available sources of information regarding acid-base response provides a more reasonable estimate of future change than an approach based on model projections alone. The results of these analyses have important implications for predicting future surface water chemical change in response to acidic deposition, establishing critical loads of atmospheric pollutants, and other environmental assessment activities where natural variation often exceeds the trends under investigation (high noise-to-signal ratio). Under these conditions, it is particularly important to evaluate future model projections in light of historical trends data.     

Predictions of U.K. regulated power station contributions to regional air pollution and deposition: a model comparison exercise

Contributions of the emissions from a U.K. regulated fossil-fuel power station to regional air pollution and deposition are estimated using four air quality modeling systems for the year 2003. The modeling systems vary in complexity and emphasis in the way they treat atmospheric and chemical processes, and include the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system in its versions 4.6 and 4.7, a nested modeling system that combines long- and short-range impacts (referred to as TRACK-ADMS [Trajectory Model with Atmospheric Chemical Kinetics-Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System]), and the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model. An evaluation of the baseline calculations against U.K. monitoring network data is performed. The CMAQ modeling system version 4.6 data set is selected as the reference data set for the model footprint comparison. The annual mean air concentration and total deposition footprints are summarized for each modeling system. The footprints of the power station emissions can account for a significant fraction of the local impacts for some species (e.g., more than 50% for SO2 air concentration and non-sea-salt sulfur deposition close to the source) for 2003. The spatial correlation and the coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CVRMSE) are calculated between each model footprint and that calculated by the CMAQ modeling system version 4.6. The correlation coefficient quantifies model agreement in terms of spatial patterns, and the CVRMSE measures the magnitude of the difference between model footprints. Possible reasons for the differences between model results are discussed. Finally, implications and recommendations for the regulatory assessment of the impact of major industrial sources using regional air quality modeling systems are discussed in the light of results from this case study.     

Aquifer storage and recovery: recent hydrogeological advances and system performance.

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is part of the solution to the global problem of managing water resources to meet existing and future freshwater demands. However, the metaphoric "ASR bubble" has been burst with the realization that ASR systems are more physically and chemically complex than the general conceptualization. Aquifer heterogeneity and fluid-rock interactions can greatly affect ASR system performance. The results of modeling studies and field experiences indicate that more sophisticated data collection and solute-transport modeling are required to predict how stored water will migrate in heterogeneous aquifers and how fluid-rock interactions will affect the quality of stored water. It has been well-demonstrated, by historic experience, that ASR systems can provide very large volumes of storage at a lesser cost than other options. The challenges moving forward are to improve the success rate of ASR systems, optimize system performance, and set expectations appropriately.     

An environmental fate, exposure and risk assessment of ethylene oxide from diffuse emissions

Ethylene oxide (EO) is mainly used as a chemical intermediate and as a fumigant and sterilizing agent. Through its manufacturing and intended uses, EO may be released into the environment. Therefore, an assessment of the environmental significance of those potential emissions was conducted. Data were collected describing pertinent physical properties, degradation and other loss mechanisms that control the fate of EO in the environment. Available aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity data were assembled and used as the basis of calculating critical toxicity values to characterize hazard. Environmental compartment concentrations of EO were calculated using Level III fugacity-based modeling. Six scenarios were developed to account for different climatic conditions in various portions of the US. Finally, potential regional-scale risks to aquatic and terrestrial wildlife were determined. In the conceptual model that was developed in this assessment, EO diffuses into air, partitions between environmental compartments, is transported out of the different compartments via advection, and undergoes abiotic and biological degradation within each compartment. All known emissions within the continental USA were assumed to enter a modeled region roughly the size of the State of Ohio. Organisms (receptors) were assumed to dwell in both terrestrial and aquatic compartments. Receptors were assumed to include small mammals, soil invertebrates, water column (pelagic) organisms, and sediment benthos. The goal of this assessment was to characterize any potential adverse risks to terrestrial and aquatic wildlife populations. Hazard Quotients (HQ) were calculated by dividing predicted concentrations of EO in air, water, sediment, and soil by their critical toxicity values. Maximum calculated HQ values in air were 1.52x10(-7), in water were 1.17x10(-5), in sediment were 2.25x10(-4), and in soil were 1.37x10(-5). The results of this assessment suggest that EO as currently manufactured and used does not pose adverse risks to aquatic or terrestrial wildlife. In all cases, the HQ values were much less than the maximum desired HQ value of 1.0 (4,400-6,600,000 times), indicating that the potential for diffuse emissions of EO to pose adverse environmental risks is quite low.