黄河入海口水质评价与预测

对黄河入海口2004-2011年的水质进行评价与预测,采用灰色聚类法分析水体DO、CODMn、NH3-N 3项指标,总结水质年均变化情况.建立水质GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,用实际水质指标值检验其精度,并用此模型预测未来4年水质变化趋势.结果表明,2004-2015年期间,黄河入海口水质在2004-2007年波动较大,但将越来越好,CODMn、NH3-N呈下降趋势,DO、达标率呈上升趋势,并通过灰色关联分析方法分析水质变化原因以期对黄河入海口水质分析预测与水体保护工作提供参考.     

基于因子分析法优选河流水体中氮浓度预测方法的研究

定量的河流水体中氮浓度预测方法有很多种,如何优选出预测精度较高的方法一直是学术界多年来致力于研究的重点。本研究采用因子分析法对预测方法的精度评价指标进行分析,并建立了预测方法精度的评价模型,对回归分析法、神经网络法、灰色系统法和增长率统计法4种水体氮浓度预测方法进行综合评估,优选出精度较高的河流水体氮浓度预测模型——BP神经网络预测模型。结果表明,此评估模型对类似研究具有一定的参考价值,能为选择出合适的河流水体氮浓度预测方法提供依据。     

基于遗传神经网络模型的空气能见度预测

由于雾霾导致的空气能见度降低,给人们的出行带来很多不便。针对这一现象,构建基于遗传神经网络算法的空气能见度预测模型。将与空气能见度相关的7种气象因子和6种污染物浓度因子经过主成份分析后作为输入数据,输出8:00能见度和14:00能见度。该模型能够克服BP神经网络易陷入平坦区域和局部最优解的问题。以西安市2013-1-1—8-16的数据训练遗传神经网络,通过使用灰色模型获得预测时间段8-17—23的输入数据,可以得到这段时间能见度的预测值。通过与BP神经网络模型的比较,发现遗传神经网络预测模型在预测结果的相关性和绝对误差方面均优于BP神经网络模型,因此,可以更准确地预测空气能见度。     

T-S模糊神经网络在厌氧反应器预测中的应用

3个厌氧反应器运行稳定后,用三氯甲烷和2、4-二硝基酚作为毒物负荷对它们进行了冲击试验.利用负荷冲击试验所得的数据集建立了T-S模糊神经网络,并用其预测了反应器的容积产气率、挥发性脂肪酸和CH4体积含量.研究结果表明,基于某一反应器建立的T-S模糊神经网络可以很好地预测毒物负荷冲击下该反应器的容积产气率、挥发性脂肪酸和CH4变化规律,实测值与预测值的相关系数均＞0.850;但是基于某一反应器建立的模糊神经网络用来预测其他反应器时,其预测能力较差,预测值和实测值的相关系数基本上＜0.500.     

基于多级神经网络模型的厌氧氨氧化系统参数预测

厌氧氨氧化菌生长条件复杂、影响因素多,其工艺系统运行控制复杂,为解决上述问题,研究构建了1个多级神经网络预测模型,以提高SBBR单级自养脱氮厌氧氨氧化系统出水总氮去除率预测精度,并确定了系统工程应用的关键控制参数。一级神经网络模型通过灰色关联度分析,对影响出水总氮去除率的关键性指标进行预测;二级神经网络模型基于一级模型增加数据维度,并通过改进粒子群算法优化网络、借鉴遗传算法变异的思想扩大搜索范围,提高了出水总氮去除率的预测精度。多级神经网络模型预测结果表明,其总氮去除率平均相对误差为0.54%,相对误差为5.76%,均方根误差为1.132 1,预测数据基本上与实际值相符;与其他预测模型相比较,该模型表现出较优的预测精度。进一步分析发现,通过控制工艺系统的曝气量调节出水亚氮浓度,是保证工艺反应的稳定和实现厌氧氨氧化工艺工程应用的有效控制方式。     

多种神经网络在华北西部区域城市空气质量预测中的应用

据华北西部区域4个主要城市2003—2012年API日报数据和相应时段的地面气象要素数据,利用4种(BP、Elman、T-S模糊、小波)神经网络构建预测模型并预测相应城市大气环境质量。研究结果显示,4种模型在可靠性、预测精度方面均可满足应用要求可用于实际预测;具有动态反馈能力的Elman神经网络的预测精度以及泛用性要优于具静态馈能力的其他3种网络模型,说明动态神经网络更适用于城市大气环境质量预测。4种神经网络的决策权重大小及其排序虽各不相同,但体现出相似规律性,日最低气温、日均气压、前日API对输出数据的影响较大,说明逆温现象引发的持续性、区域性污染是该地区主要环境问题。     

基于IGA-BP网络的水质预测方法

针对水质预测中传统BP神经网络模型收敛速度慢,对隐层结点选取缺乏有效的手段等问题,引入了遗传算法优化BP网络的结构和隐层神经元阈值和连接权值,通过设计灵活的实数编码方案和新型交叉算子等,对实数编码遗传算法进行改进,在此基础上,提出了一种基于改进的实数编码遗传算法优化BP神经网络(IGA-BP)的水质预测新模型,并以安徽蚌埠蚌埠闸逐周水质监测的PH值数据为例,进行水质预测,通过与传统的GA-BP神经网络以及BP神经网络的水质预测模型对比,结果表明,这种预测方法训练的BP神经网络收敛速度快,样本逼近精度高且泛化能力强。     

模糊神经网络控制在污水处理中的应用研究

对模糊神经网络(FNN)技术应用于污水处理进行了研究,提出了一个具有五层的模糊神经网络控制器,仿真实验表明,该控制系统具有很强的鲁棒性与容错性.该控制器能够自动调整隶属度函数、动态优化控制规则,将其应用于溶解氧控制和出水水质预测,结果表明可以快速、有效地使溶解氧浓度达到期望值,实际出水水质预测结果也具有很好的收敛性和预测精度.     

基于改进型灰色神经网络组合模型的空气质量预测

基于空气质量数据不足及波动较大的情况,将灰色GM（1,1）模型与人工神经网络模型组合并改进,建立改进型灰色神经网络组合模型。利用天津市2001—2008年PM10、SO2和NO2年均值作为原始数据预测2009—2010年PM10、SO2和NO2的浓度以进行模型精度检验,最后利用该模型预测2011—2015年天津市空气质量状况。结果表明,与灰色GM（1,1）模型、传统灰色神经网络组合模型相比,所建立的改进型灰色神经网络组合模型相对模拟误差小,预测结果更为可靠,可以用于空气质量预测。     

灰色系统GM模型在城市大气质量预测中的应用

本文试用灰色系统理论GM(1·1)模型,以南昌市1983～1987年的大气颗粒物浓度统计资料为例,求得南昌市大气颗粒物浓度灰色预测模型为: (?)~((1))(k+1)=-14.783919e~(-0.0290324K)+15.176919利用它预测了南昌市1988～2000年间大气颗粒物浓度的变化趋势。研究表明,灰色系统模型在环境科学研究中可以作为一种新的认识方法。     

Evaluation of trichloroethene recovery processes in heterogeneous aquifer cells flushed with biodegradable surfactants

The ability of two biodegradable surfactants, polyoxyethylene (20) sorbitan monooleate (Tween 80) and sodium dihexyl sulfosuccinate (Aerosol MA), to recover a representative dense non-aqueous-phase liquid (DNAPL), trichloroethene (TCE), from heterogeneous porous media was evaluated through a combination of batch and aquifer cell experiments. An aqueous solution containing 3.3% Aerosol MA, 8% 2-propanol and 6 g/l CaCl(2) yielded a weight solubilization ratio (WSR) of 1.21 g TCE/g surfactant, with a corresponding liquid-liquid interfacial tension (IFT) of 0.19 dyn/cm. Flushing of aquifer cells containing a TCE-DNAPL source zone with approximately two pore volumes of the AMA formulation resulted in substantial (>30%) mobilization of TCE-DNAPL. However, a TCE mass recovery of 81% was achieved when the aqueous-phase flow rate was sufficient to displace the mobile TCE-DNAPL toward the effluent well. Aqueous solutions of Tween 80 exhibited a greater capacity to solubilize TCE (WSR=1.74 g TCE/g surfactant) and exerted markedly less reduction in IFT (10.4 dyn/cm). These data contradict an accepted empirical correlation used to estimate IFT values from solubilization capacity, and indicate a unique capacity of T80 to form concentrated TCE emulsions. Flushing of aquifer cells with less than 2.5 pore volumes of a 4% T80 solution achieved TCE mass recoveries ranging from 66 to 85%, with only slight TCE-DNAPL mobilization (<5%) occurring when the total trapping number exceeded 2 x 10(-5). These findings demonstrate the ability of Tween 80 and Aerosol MA solutions to efficiently recover TCE from a heterogeneous DNAPL source zone, and the utility of the total trapping number as a design parameter for a priori prediction of DNAPL mobilization and bank angle formation when flushing with low-IFT solutions. Given their potential to stimulate microbial reductive dechlorination at low concentrations, these surfactants are well-suited for remedial action plans that couple aggressive mass removal followed by enhanced bioremediation to treat chlorinated solvent source zones.     

The variation of street air levels of PAH and other mutagenic PAC in relation to regulations of traffic emissions and the impact of atmospheric processes

The occurrence of particle associated PAH and other mutagenic PAC was determined in 1996 in the street air of Copenhagen. In addition, particle extracts were tested for mutagenicity. The measurements were compared with previous measurements in 1992/1993. The levels had decreased in this period. The decrease was caused by an implementation of light diesel fuels for buses and the exchange of older petrol-driven passenger cars with catalystequipped new ones. About 65% of the reduction was caused by the application of the light diesel fuels. Under special conditions, chemical processes in the atmosphere produced many more mutagens than the direct emissions. The concentrations of S-PAC and N-PAC were 10 times lower than those of PAH, while the levels of oxy-PAH were in the same order of magnitude as those of PAH. Benzanthrone, an oxy-PAH, is proposed to be formed in the atmosphere in addition to direct emissions. Benzo(a)pyrene, often applied as an air quality criteria indicator, was photochemically degraded in the atmosphere. A strong increase in the mutagenic activities was observed to coincide with a depletion of benzo(a)pyrene.     

Chloroaromatic pollutants in mussels incubated in two finnish watercourses polluted by industry

Concentrations of different chlorinated compounds were measured in mussels incubated in two polluted watercourses, a river (the River Kymijoki) and a lake (Lake Vanaja) for four weeks in summer 1995. The sum concentrations of polychlorinated phenols (PCP) and biphenyls (PCB) were both about 1 μg/g lipid weight (lw) in Lake Vanaja mussels, while in the River Kymijoki mussels PCPs were non-detectable and PCBs were measured 120 ng/g lIw. The concentrations of toxic polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) and dibenzofuran (PCDF) congeners ranged between <17 and 370 pg/g Iw in Lake Vanaja mussels and between <38 and 11,000 pg/g lw in the River Kymijoki mussels. Polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDE) were detected in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki (0.4–1.1 ng/g Iw), but not in those incubated in Lake Vanaja. Polychlorinated phenoxyanisoles (PCPA) were measured 33 ng/g lw and polychlorinated phenoxyphenols (PCPP) 300 ng/g lw in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki. PCPAs were also detected in reference samples, which were sediment and pike from the River Kymijoki and Baltic salmon, seal and white-tailed sea eagle.     

Teratological effects of pesticides in vertebrates: a review

Abstract

In the last decades, the use and misuse of pesticides in the agriculture have increased, having a severe impact on ecosystems and their fauna. Although the various effects of pesticides on biodiversity have been already documented in several studies, to our knowledge no consistent overview of the impact of pesticides in vertebrates, both terrestrial and aquatic, is available. In this review, we try to present a concise compilation of the teratogenic effects of pesticides on the different classes of vertebrates – mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish.     

Radionuclides and trace elements in fish collected upstream and downstream of Los Alamos national laboratory and the doses to humans from the consumption of muscle and bone

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine radionuclide and trace element concentrations in bottom‐feeding fish (catfish, carp, and suckers) collected from the confluences of some of the major canyons that cross Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) lands with the Rio Grande (RG) and the potential radiological doses from the ingestion of these fish. Samples of muscle and bone (and viscera in some cases) were analyzed for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, ^totU, ²³⁸Pu, ^239,240Pu, and ²⁴¹Am and Ag, As, Ba, Be, Cr, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and Tl. Most radionuclides, with the exception of ⁹⁰Sr, in the muscle plus bone portions of fish collected from LANL canyons/RG were not significantly (p<0.05) higher from fish collected upstream (San Ildefonso/background) of LANL. Strontium‐90 in fish muscle plus bone tissue significantly (p<0.05) increases in concentration starting from Los Alamos Canyon, the most upstream confluence (fish contained 3.4E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [126E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]), to Frijoles Canyon, the most downstream confluence (fish contained 14E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [518E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]). The differences in ⁹⁰Sr concentrations in fish collected downstream and upstream (background) of LANL, however, were very small. Based on the average concentrations (±2SD) of radionuclides in fish tissue from the four LANL confluences, the committed effective dose equivalent from the ingestion of 46 lb (21 kg) (maximum ingestion rate per person per year) of fish muscle plus bone, after the subtraction of background, was 0.1 ± 0.1 mrem y^‐1 (1.0 ± 1.0 μSv y^‐1), and was far below the International Commission on Radiological Protection (all pathway) permissible dose limit of 100 mrem y^‐1 (1000 μSv y^‐1). Of the trace elements that were found above the limits of detection (Ba, Cu, and Hg) in fish muscle collected from the confluences of canyons that cross LANL and the RG, none were in significantly higher (p<0.05) concentrations than in muscle of fish collected from background locations.     

Book review

The Pesticide Manual ‐ A World Compendium, 8th Edition, C.R. Worthing, Editor and S.B. Walker, Assistant Editor, British Crop Protection Council, BCPC Publications Sales, Bear Farm, Binfield, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 5QE, England. 1987, 1100 pp., UK £50; Overseas £56. ISBN 0–948404–01–9.     

Patterns of volatile metabolites and nonvolatile trichothecenes produced by isolates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Stachybotrys,Fusarium, Trichoderma,Trichothecium</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Memnoniella</Emphasis>

We reported previously that trichodiene, a volatile trichothecene derivative, was produced by a Stachybotrys isolate, also known to produce highly cytotoxic, non-volatile, macrocyclic trichothecenes (satrotoxins). We investigated the relationship between the production of trichodiene and various non-volatile trichothecenes for several molds. Volatile metabolites were concentrated by adsorption on Tenax TA and analyzed by GC/MS, while non-volatile metabolites were separated by HPLC, derivatized and analyzed by GC/MS. Stachybotrys chartarum isolates producing macrocyclic trichothecenes secreted significantly larger amounts of trichodiene and other sesquiterpenes than isolates which only produced simple trichothecenes. The amounts of secreted trichodiene were relatively small in all cases. With the exception of Memnoniella, which excreted small amounts of sesquiterpenes, the other isolates produced varying amounts of sesquiterpenes, including trichodiene, as well as simple tricothecenes, no detectable trichodiene, but large amounts of griseofulvin derivatives. In Stachybotrys there is apparently a correlation between trichodiene and macrocyclic trichothecene production. In the remaining isolates, there was no simple relationship between trichodiene and non-volatile trichothecene synthesis. Trichodiene is produced in larger amounts by Stachybotrys isolates, which also produce satratoxins, but it will be difficult to utilize this metabolite to detect toxic isolates in buildings due to the relatively small amounts excreted.     

Knowledge transfer initiative between molecular biologists and environmental researchers and regulators

A Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded Knowledge Transfer (KT) workshop was held in the United Kingdom (UK) to identify the needs and opportunities in the application of molecular biology and ‘omics’ techniques to environmental monitoring and risk assessment. Attendees highlighted a lack of effective communication between end-users and researchers as well as difficulties with data interpretation as reasons behind the slow uptake of molecular biology and omics techniques. A number of promising areas in which new techniques could be implemented at a practical level in the very near future were identified, thereby raising the profile of these recent technologies and providing vital proof of concept work. Molecular taxonomy, bacterial source tracking and pre-screening of chemicals for potential toxicities were all viewed as areas in which omics and molecular techniques could have immediate value, with the aim of reducing cost, increasing efficiency and providing more comprehensive data of improved quality.     

The chemical stability of formulations of some hydrolyzable insecticides in aqueous mixtures with hydrolysis catalysts

Abstract

The active ingredients in commercial formulations of malathion, oxamyl, carbaryl, diazinon, and chlorpyrifos diluted to “spray tank”; concentrations with buffered distilled or natural water of pH 4–9 were stable for at least 24 hr. Formulations of trichlorfon were not stable at pH 7 or above but disappearance rates were slower than for the pure chemical in homogeneous solution. Cupric ion was observed to be an effective catalyst for the hydrolysis of a variety of pure organophosphorus insecticides but did not catalyze hydrolysis of the active ingredients of the formulations examined. Increasing the dilution of the formulation increased the susceptibility of malathion, oxamyl, and carbaryl to hydrolysis.     

Organochlorine compounds in a three-step terrestrial food chain

The concentrations of 15 organochlorine chemicals (PCBs and pesticides) were studied in a Central European oak wood food chain system: Great tit (Parus major), caterpillars (Tortrix viridana, Operophtera brumata, Erannis defoliaria), and oak-leaves (Quercus robur). Juvenile tits receive organochlorines from the mother via egg transfer and, eventually to a greater extent, from the caterpillar food source during nestling period. The concentrations of PCB 153 (2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl, the most abundant in this study) was found in leaf material at ca. 1 ng/g, in caterpillars 10 ng/g, and in bird eggs 170 ng/g on an average and on a dry mass basis.