EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR FOREST LAND MANAGEMENT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A growing concern for environmental quality paralleled with increasing demands on our forest resources has prompted the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to evaluate simulation modeling as a technique for analyzing management decisions in terms of their environmental effects. The evaluation focused on a system of integrated models developed at the University of Washington which simulate processes and activities within the forest ecosystem. A major part of the system is a hydrologic model which predicts changes in discharge, stream temperature, and concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved oxygen based on information generated by other models representing intensive management practices. The evaluation consisted of applying the system to a 72,000 acre tract of forest land, validating the models with two years of discharge and water quality data from a 93,000 acre watershed, and determining the pertinence of hydrologic modeling for management purposes. Results show several potential uses of hydrologic modeling for forest management planning, especially for analyzing the effects of timber harvesting strategies on water quality.     

A WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR A CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE-GROUNDWATER SYSTEM: AN OVERVIEW1

ABSTRACT. A mathematical model to predict water quality in a surface-groundwater system is under development. This project is being sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency. The ultimate goal of this study is to obtain cause and effect relationships between pollutant sources and the ensuing concentrations at different locations in a basin. Several programs are used to model the various hydrologic processes occurring in nature, namely: rainfall, runoff, flow in surface bodies of water, infiltration, and groundwater flow. At every time step in the simulation, the water quantity computations for the above hydrologic models are performed first. Subsequently, the results of these computations, typically in the form of flow velocities, are used as input to the water quality calculations. The water quality routines involve the modeling of the associated physical, chemical, and biological processes. In this study, emphasis is being placed on pollution in agricultural areas. Accordingly the Lake Apopka basin in Central Florida is being used as the application site.     

A SELF-VERIFYING HYBRID COMPUTER MODEL OF RIVER-BASIN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. As demands upon available water supplies increase, there is an accompanying increase in the need to assess the downstream consequences resulting from changes at specific locations within a hydrologic system. The problem is approached in this study by hybrid computer simulation of the hydrologic system. Modeling concepts are based upon the development of basic relationships which describe the various hydrologic processes. Within a system these relationships are linked by the continuity-of-mass principle. Spatial resolution is achieved by considering the modeled areas as a series of subbasins. The time increment adopted for the model is one month, so that time varying quantities are expressed in terms of mean monthly values. The model is general in nature and is applied to a particular hydrologic system through a programmed verification procedure whereby model coefficients are evaluated for the particular system. In this study the model is applied to the Bear River basin of western Wyoming, southern Idaho, and northern Utah. Comparisons between observed and computed outflow hydrographs show good agreement. The utility of the model is demonstrated by predicting the effects of various possible water resource management alternatives. The verified hybrid computer program can be digitized for application to the digital computer.     

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

CONTINUOUS SIMULATION FOR WATER QUALITY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a methodology for the evaluation of water quality plans analogous to procedures used in flood control planning, where flood damage frequency curves provide the basis for determining flood control benefits. The proposed method uses continuous water quality simulation to develop long term information from which water quality frequency curves can be obtained. This frequency information allows the evaluation of the impact of proposed water quality control plans taking into consideration the variable nature of the water resource. Using treatment costs and other economic indicators of water quality, the frequency information can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness and economic efficiency of alternative plans. The method is demonstrated in a semi-hypothetical environment; real hydrologic and climatic characteristics are assigned to a hypothetical watershed configuration. Alternative management plans are simulated and analyzed for both physical and economic impacts. The advantages of continuous simulation and its use in water quality planning are explored.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO STORM WATER MANAGEMENT AND LAND DEVELOPMENT1

Low impact development (LID) and other land development methods have been presented as alternatives to conventional storm water management and site design. Low impact development encourages land preservation and use of distributed, infiltration‐based storm water management systems to minimize impacts on hydrology. Such systems can include shallow retention areas, akin to natural depression storage. Other approaches to land development may emphasize land preservation only. Herein, an analysis of four development alternatives is presented. The first was Traditional development with conventional pipe/pond storm water management and half‐acre lots. The second alternative was Cluster development, in which implementation of the local cluster development ordnance was assumed, resulting in quarter‐acre lots with a pipe/pond storm water management system and open space preservation. The “Partial” LID option used the same lot layout as the Traditional option, with a storm water management system emphasizing shallow depression storage. The “Full” LID used the Cluster site plan and the depression storage‐based storm water management system. The alternatives were compared to the hydrologic response of existing site conditions. The analysis used two design storms and a continuous rainfall record. The combination of land preservation and infiltration‐based storm water management yielded the hydrologic response closest to existing conditions, although ponds were required to control peak flows for the design storms.     

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT: THE CONCEPT AND ITS APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: Storm water management is a concept being applied in many urban areas to deal with the increasing problems of storm runoff control and flood damage prevention. This paper introduces the concept and describes the recently completed storm water management program in Columbus, Georgia. Columbus has spent five years and over $200,000 in the development of their problem which includes several basic elements: soils inventory and analysis, hydrologic data collection, sediment and erosion control ordinance, storm water management handbook, urban flood simulation model, interdepartment coordination study, drainage problem categorization study, and a pilot basin study. The results of the pilot basin study are presented including example output from the urban simulation model. The computer output illustrates both the hydrologic-hydraulic and economic capabilities of the model.     

Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality

It is widely known that watershed hydrology is dependent on many factors, including land use, climate, and soil conditions. But the relative impacts of different types of land use on the surface water are yet to be ascertained and quantified. This research attempted to use a comprehensive approach to examine the hydrologic effects of land use at both a regional and a local scale. Statistical and spatial analyses were employed to examine the statistical and spatial relationships of land use and the flow and water quality in receiving waters on a regional scale in the State of Ohio. Besides, a widely accepted watershed-based water quality assessment tool, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), was adopted to model the plausible effects of land use on water quality in a local watershed in the East Fork Little Miami River Basin. The results from the statistical analyses revealed that there was a significant relationship between land use and in-stream water quality, especially for nitrogen, phosphorus and Fecal coliform. The geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analyses identified the watersheds that have high levels of contaminants and percentages of agricultural and urban lands. Furthermore, the hydrologic and water quality modeling showed that agricultural and impervious urban lands produced a much higher level of nitrogen and phosphorus than other land surfaces. From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales. It also reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales. With little modification, these models should be able to adapt to other watersheds or to simulate other contaminants. They also can be used to study the plausible impacts of global environmental change. In addition, the information on the hydrologic effects of land use is very useful. It can provide guidelines not only for resource managers in restoring our aquatic ecosystems, but also for local planners in devising viable and ecologically-sound watershed development plans, as well as for policy makers in evaluating alternate land management decisions.     

RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

ESTIMATING WATER BUDGET IN A REGIONAL AQUIFER USING HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Integrated water resources management is important, especially in watersheds where substantial interactions exist between the ground and surface water sources. This management warrants the need for reliable estimates of both an overall basin water budget and hydrologic fluctuations between ground water and surface water sources. The objectives of this study were to estimate the total water budget and to simulate the effects of the management of water in the Big Lost River Basin in Idaho. The study used the FIPR Hydrological Model (FHM), a hydrological model developed by the University of South Florida for the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR). The FHM is an integrated model that simulates the full water budget of the surface and ground water systems. It has two public domain components: Hydrological Simulation Program ‐ FORTRAN (HSPF) and Modular Three‐Dimensional Finite‐Difference Ground Water Flow Model (MODFLOW). This study quantified the hydrologic fluxes between ground water and surface water and determined a comprehensive and accurate water budget for the Big Lost River. The study showed an annual amount of 10.44 m3/sec leaves the basin and never to return to the system. The study is useful in developing and calculating the annual water budget in the Big Lost River, and this process should be applicable to estimating water budgets in other basins.     

The Watershed Flow and Allocation Model: An NHDPlus‐Based Watershed Modeling Approach for Multiple Scales and Conditions

The Watershed Flow and Allocation model (WaterFALL^®) provides segment‐specific, daily streamflow at both gaged and ungaged locations to generate the hydrologic foundation for a variety of water resources management applications. The model is designed to apply across the spatially explicit and enhanced National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus) stream and catchment network. To facilitate modeling at the NHDPlus catchment scale, we use an intermediate‐level rainfall‐runoff model rather than a complex process‐based model. The hydrologic model within WaterFALL simulates rainfall‐runoff processes for each catchment within a watershed and routes streamflow between catchments, while accounting for withdrawals, discharges, and onstream reservoirs within the network. The model is therefore distributed among each NHDPlus catchment within the larger selected watershed. Input parameters including climate, land use, soils, and water withdrawals and discharges are georeferenced to each catchment. The WaterFALL system includes a centralized database and server‐based environment for storing all model code, input parameters, and results in a single instance for all simulations allowing for rapid comparison between multiple scenarios. We demonstrate and validate WaterFALL within North Carolina at a variety of scales using observed streamflows to inform quantitative and qualitative measures, including hydrologic flow metrics relevant to the study of ecological flow management decisions.     

SIMULATION – A TOOL FOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Proper economic evaluation of alternative plans will maximize the utility achieved from the resources available for water resource management. A knowledge of the frequency of occurrence of the events under study is necessary to fully utilize the advantages of economic evaluation in planning. Frequency information is widely used in flood control and water supply, but relatively unknown in water quality planning. A continuous, dynamic hydrologic and water quality model is presented to develop frequency curves for various water quality criteria. Results from the Denver Regional Water Quality Management Study are discussed as an example of the use of frequency analysis for economic evaluation of water quality management.     

流域非点源水污染排放清单估算系统构建

基于流域水质改善与水环境管理需求,结合目前流域非点源水污染排放存在的问题,本研究采用SOA-B/S架构,运用MVC6和GIS与环境模型集成关键技术,构建流域非点源水污染排放清单估算系统,并系统梳理了地形数据、污染源环境统计数据、气象数据等基础信息,采用基于输出系数法的非点源水污染负荷估算模型,实现了对全年及年内各分水期非点源水污染排放清单的处理分析和估算。系统通过数据库、GIS平台、模型集成和业务系统建设,实现了对不同时间和空间尺度下不同地区的非点源水污染负荷估算,推进了流域非点源污染排放的信息化、科学化及可视化管理,为决策者制定流域水环境管理措施和方案提供了有力的技术支持。     

A GIS/Simulation Framework for Assessing Change in Water Yield over Large Spatial Scales

Recent legislation to initiate vegetation management in the Central Sierra hydrologic region of California includes a focus on corresponding changes in water yield. This served as the impetus for developing a combined geographic information system (GIS) and simulation assessment framework. Using the existing vegetation density condition, together with proposed rules for thinning to reduce fire risk, a set of simulation model inputs were generated for examining the impact of the thinning scenario on water yield. The approach allows results to be expressed as the mean and standard deviation of change in water yield for each 1-km² map cell that is thinned. Values for groups of cells are aggregated for typical watershed units using area-weighted averaging. Wet, dry, and average precipitation years were simulated over a large region. Where snow plays an important role in hydrologic processes, the simulated change in water yield was less than 0.5% of expected annual runoff for a typical watershed. Such small changes would be undetectable in the field using conventional stream flow analysis. These results suggest that use of water yield increases to help justify forest-thinning activities or offset their cost will be difficult.     

Modeling Flow,Nutrient, and Sediment Delivery from a Large International Watershed Using a Field‐Scale SWAT Model

A large international watershed, the St. Clair‐Detroit River System, containing both extensive urban and agricultural areas, was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The watershed, located in southeastern Michigan, United States, and southwestern Ontario, Canada, encompasses the St. Clair, Clinton, Detroit (DT), Sydenham (SY), Upper, and Lower Thames subwatersheds. The SWAT input data and model resolution (i.e., hydrologic response units, HRUs), were established to mimic farm boundaries, the first time this has been done for a watershed of this size. The model was calibrated (2007–2015) and validated (2001–2006) with a mix of manual and automatic methods at six locations for flow and water quality at various time scales. The model was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias and was used to explore major water quality issues. We showed the importance of allowing key parameters to vary among subwatersheds to improve goodness of fit, and the resulting parameters were consistent with subwatershed characteristics. Agricultural sources in the Thames and SY subwatersheds and point sources from DT subwatershed were major contributors of phosphorus. Spatial distribution of phosphorus yields at HRU and subbasin levels identified locations for potential management targeting for both point and nonpoint sources and revealed that in some subwatersheds nonpoint sources are dominated by urban sources.     

DETERMINATION OF BEST TIMING FOR POULTRY WASTE DISPOSAL: A MODELING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Confined production of poultry results in significant volumes of waste material which are typically disposed of by land application. Concerns over the potential environmental impacts of poultry waste disposal have resulted in ongoing efforts to develop management practices which maintain high quality of water downstream of disposal areas. The timing of application to minimize waste constituent losses is a management practice with the potential to ensure high quality of streams, rivers, and lakes downstream of receiving areas. This paper describes the development and application of a method to identify which time of year is best, from the standpoint of surface water quality, for land application of poultry waste. The procedure consists of using a mathematical simulation model to estimate average nitrogen and phosphorus losses resulting from different application timings, and then identifying the timings which minimize losses of these nutrients. The procedure was applied to three locations in Arkansas, and three different criteria for optimality of application timing were investigated. One criterion was oriented strictly to water quality, one was oriented only to crop production, and the last was a combination. The criteria resulted in different windows of time being identified as optimal. Optimal windows also varied with location of the receiving area. The results indicate that it is possible to land-apply poultry waste at times which both minimize nutrient losses and maximize crop yield.     

Estimating Forest Ecosystem Evapotranspiration at Multiple Temporal Scales With a Dimension Analysis Approach1

Abstract:  It is critical that evapotranspiration (ET) be quantified accurately so that scientists can evaluate the effects of land management and global change on water availability, streamflow, nutrient and sediment loading, and ecosystem productivity in watersheds. The objective of this study was to derive a new semi‐empirical ET modeled using a dimension analysis method that could be used to estimate forest ET effectively at multiple temporal scales. The model developed describes ET as a function of water availability for evaporation and transpiration, potential ET demand, air humidity, and land surface characteristics. The model was tested with long‐term hydrometeorological data from five research sites with distinct forest hydrology in the United States and China. Averaged simulation error for daily ET was within 0.5 mm/day. The annual ET at each of the five study sites were within 7% of measured values. Results suggest that the model can accurately capture the temporal dynamics of ET in forest ecosystems at daily, monthly, and annual scales. The model is climate‐driven and is sensitive to topography and vegetation characteristics and thus has potential to be used to examine the compounding hydrologic responses to land cover and climate changes at multiple temporal scales.     

Water Management Applications for Satellite Precipitation Products: Synthesis and Recommendations

This article is an assessment of the current state of the art and relative utility of satellite precipitation products (SPPs) for hydrologic applications to support water management decisions. We present a review of SPPs, their accuracy in diverse settings including the influence of geography, topography, and weather systems, as well as the pros and cons of their use for different water management applications. At the end of this broad synthesizing effort, recommendations are proposed for: (1) SPP developers to improve the quality, usability, and relevance of precipitation products; and (2) SPP users to improve the reliability of their predictions and hydrologic applications to better support water management.     

Lake Water Levels and Associated Hydrologic Characteristics in the Conterminous U.S.

Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions.     

WATER QUALITY PREDICTION WITHIN AN INTERBASIN TRANSFER SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT A methodology for predicting the spatial and temporal levels of conservative water quality constituents within a multibasin water resource system is presented. Dissolved solids, sulfates, and chlorides are the constituents used during this investigation; however, any other conservative ion or mineral can be incorporated into the simulation model. The methodology is tested on the proposed Texas Water System. The water quality model, QNET-I, utilizes monthly canal and river flows and reservoir storage levels calculated by the Texas Water Development Board's systems simulation model. Discharge-concentration relationships are developed for each source of water in the system, including significant waste-water discharges. Reservoirs in the system are assumed to be completely mixed with respect to conservative constituents. A mass balance analysis is performed for each node and each month during the simulation period. The output from the water quality simulation is a table of the concentrations of the conservative water quality constituents at each demand point in the system and in each reservoir and canal for every month the system is in operation. The desired quality of the water at the demand locations is used to determine the economic utility of transporting and mixing water from various sources.