Impacts of climate warming on reindeer herding require new land-use strategies

Climate in the Arctic has warmed at a more rapid pace than the global average over the past few decades leading to weather, snow, and ice situations previously unencountered. Reindeer herding is one of the primary livelihoods for Indigenous peoples throughout the Arctic. To understand how the new climate state forces societal adaptation, including new management strategies and needs for preserved, interconnected, undisturbed grazing areas, we coupled changes in temperature, precipitation, and snow depth recorded by automatic weather stations to herder observations of reindeer behaviour in grazing areas of the Laevas Sámi reindeer herding community, northern Sweden. Results show that weather and snow conditions strongly determine grazing opportunities and therefore reindeer response. We conclude that together with the cumulative effects of increased pressures from alternative land use activities, the non-predictable environmental conditions that are uniquely part of the warming climate seriously challenge future reindeer herding in northern Sweden.     

Local and regional variability in snow conditions in northern Finland: A reindeer herding perspective

Weather station measurements were used to force the SNOWPACK snow model and combined with reindeer herders’ experiences to study the local and regional variations in snow conditions in a Finnish reindeer herding area for the 1981–2010 period. Winter conditions varied significantly between the four selected herding districts and between open and forest environments within the districts. The highest snow depths and densities, the thicknesses of ground ice, and the lengths of snow cover period were generally found in the northernmost districts. The snow depths showed the strongest regional coherence, whereas the thicknesses of ground ice were weakly correlated among the districts. The local variation in snow depths was higher than the regional variation and limits for rare or exceptional events varied notably between different districts and environments. The results highlight that forests diversify snow and foraging conditions, e.g., ground ice rarely forms simultaneously in different environments. Sufficient and diverse forest pastures are important during the critical winter season if reindeer herding is pursued on natural grazing grounds also in the future.     

Manipulation of snow in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: effects on leaching of total organic carbon and total organic nitrogen

Projected increases in winter temperature due to future climate change may cause decreased snow accumulation at lower and intermediate altitudes in northern temperate regions. The resulting changes in soil temperature and water regime may affect the leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON). We manipulated the snow cover of small headwater catchments in a montane heathland area of southern Norway to quantify its effect on concentrations and fluxes of TOC and TON in runoff. Manipulations included snow removal, to promote soil frost, and insulation, to prevent soil frost. Snow removal resulted in increased TOC and TON concentrations, but decreased fluxes. Insulation caused a slight decrease in concentrations and fluxes of TOC. Our experiments show that a change in snow depth, and thus soil temperature, is not likely to have serious effects on TOC and TON leaching in the montane heathland area studied.     

Reindeer in the Swedish mountains: an assessment of grazing impacts

During the last decade, several well-publicized grazing-related incidents of vegetation degradation have helped to form an official opinion of overutilization of some mountain areas and a concern that Swedish reindeer husbandry may not be ecologically sustainable. We examine these examples in a temporal and management perspective to assess the scale of impact on summer grazing grounds in the Swedish mountains. Long-term data on population dynamics of reindeer show no trend with fluctuations around 225 000 animals for the last century. Data on grazing effects from L?ngfj?llet (Dalarna) and Mitt?kl?ppen (H?rjedalen) are discussed in detail. We compare these data to the situation in Finnmark, Norway, and in northern Finland where reindeer husbandry in recent decades does not seem to have been ecologically sustainable. We conclude that large-scale overexploitation by reindeer in the Swedish mountains is not evident. However, strong grazing and trampling effects may be found around enclosures and fences.     

Climate change: effects on the ecological basis for reindeer husbandry in Sweden

This paper examines potential effects of predicted climate changes on the forage conditions during both summer and winter for semidomesticated reindeer in Sweden. Positive effects in summer ranges include higher plant productivity and a longer growing season, while negative effects include increased insect harassment. Forage quality may change in both positive and negative ways. An increase in shrubs and trees in alpine heaths is also likely. A warmer climate means shorter winters, which will have positive effects for the survival of reindeer. However, warmer and wetter weather may also result in increased probabilities of ice-crust formations, which strongly decrease forage availability. A warmer climate with higher forest productivity will also likely reduce lichen availability through competitive interactions. Adaptations to these changes will include maintaining a choice of grazing sites in both summer and winter. However, this capacity may already be severely limited because of other forms of land use.     

Ecosystem Response to Climatic Change: The Importance of the Cold Season

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.     

Ecosystem response to climatic change: the importance of the cold season

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.     

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950–2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.     

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate Variability and Environmental Stress in the Sudan-Sahel Zone of West Africa

Environmental change in the Sudan-Sahel region of West Africa (SSWA) has been much debated since the droughts of the 1970s. In this article we assess climate variability and environmental stress in the region. Households in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria were asked about climatic changes and their perceptions were compared across north–south and west–east rainfall gradients. More than 80% of all households found that rainfall had decreased, especially in the wettest areas. Increases in wind speeds and temperature were perceived by an overall 60–80% of households. Contrary to household perceptions, observed rainfall patterns showed an increasing trend over the past 20 years. However, August rainfall declined, and could therefore potentially explain the contrasting negative household perceptions of rainfall trends. Most households reported degradation of soils, water resources, vegetation, and fauna, but more so in the 500–900 mm zones. Adaptation measures to counter environmental degradation included use of manure, reforestation, soil and water conservation, and protection of fauna and vegetation. The results raise concerns for future environmental management in the region, especially in the 500–900 mm zones and the western part of SSWA.     

Climate Change,Land Use Conflicts,Predation and Ecological Degradation as Challenges for Reindeer Husbandry in Northern Europe: What do We Really Know After Half a Century of Research?

Reindeer grazing has been entitled as ecological keystone in arctic-alpine landscapes. In addition, reindeer husbandry is tightly connected to the identity of the indigenous Sámi people in northern Europe. Nowadays, reindeer husbandry is challenged in several ways, of which pasture degradation, climate change, conflicting land uses and predation are the most important. Research on reindeer-related topics has been conducted for more than half a century and this review illuminates whether or not research is capable to match these challenges. Despite its high quality, traditional reindeer-related research is functionally isolated within the various disciplines. The meshwork of ecology, socio-economy, culture and politics, however, in which reindeer husbandry is embedded by various interactions, will remain unclear and difficult to manage, if actors and relationships are kept separate. We propose some targets for new integrative research approaches that incorporate traditional knowledge and focus on the entire human-ecological system 'reindeer husbandry' to develop solutions for its challenges.     

Atmospherically deposited major and trace elements in the winter snowpack along a gradient of altitude in the Central Pyrenees: The seasonal record of long-range fluxes over SW Europe

The chemistry of high mountain snowpacks is a result of the long-range atmospheric transport and deposition of elements. Pyrenean snowpacks contain information about the fluxes of elements over SW Europe in winter. Here we analysed Al, Ti, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd and Pb in the 2004–05 winter snowpack in the Central Pyrenees, at an altitude range of 1820–3200 m a.s.l. Ni, As, Se and Cd were not detected in most cases. The concentrations of the remaining elements were comparable to those found in other high mountain areas in Europe and North America considered representative of regional background of atmospheric deposition in populated areas. In contrast, our measurements were higher than those of polar areas, which represent the global background. Single measurements of concentrations and snow accumulation were subject to considerable spatial variability, which may be attributable to strong wind drift and other post-depositional processes. The major ions chemistry of the snow indicated three possible origins for the solutes: terrigenous dust, sea salt spray and polluting S and N aerosols. We found no association between Cu, Zn and Pb and any of these possible sources. This observation therefore indicates that these elements were not preferentially bound to any particular kind of aerosol. Snow collected at altitudes of up to 2050 m a.s.l. presented higher concentrations of several elements than snow above this altitude, thereby indicating a local influence. Snow collected above 2300 m a.s.l. was therefore more representative of broad regional inputs. At these higher altitudes, snow was not enriched in Al, Ti, Mn, Fe or As compared with the composition of the upper continental crust and the local lithology, and these elements (except Mn) appeared almost exclusively in the particulate fraction. This observation indicates that Al, Ti, Mn, Fe and As were present mainly as part of dust particles of terrigenous origin. In contrast, Cu, Zn, and Pb presented medium to high enrichment factors and showed a higher proportion of soluble forms, thereby indicating their polluting character.     

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Landscape–seascape dynamics in the isthmus between S?rkapp Land and the rest of Spitsbergen: Will a new big Arctic island form?

Transformation of the glaciated isthmus between Sørkapp Land and the rest of Spitsbergen since 1900 is described. The landscape–seascape dynamics depends on the glacial recession determined by climate warming after the Little Ice Age (i.e., since the beginning of the twentieth century, and especially since the 1980s). The isthmus has been narrowed from 28 km in 1899–1900 to 6.2 km in 2013, and lowered by 60–200 m from 1936 to 2005. Two isthmus’ glaciers will have melted, given the current thermic conditions, by 2030–2035. It cannot be ruled out that Sørkapp Land will become an island after that period, because the altitude of the glaciers’ bedrock is close to the sea level. The disappearance of this huge ice mass, even without origin of a sound and island, will lead to a great transformation of the landscape and the ecosystem.     

Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh

This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001–2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.     

On the decline of ground lichen forests in the Swedish boreal landscape: Implications for reindeer husbandry and sustainable forest management

Lichens are a bottleneck resource for circumpolar populations of reindeer, and as such, for reindeer husbandry as an indigenous Sami land-use tradition in northern Sweden. This study uses ground lichen data and forest information collected within the Swedish National Forest Inventory since 1953, on the scale of northern Sweden. We found a 71 % decline in the area of lichen-abundant forests over the last 60 years. A decline was observed in all regions and age classes and especially coincided with a decrease of >60 year old, open pine forests, which was the primary explanatory factor in our model. The effects of reindeer numbers were inconclusive in explaining the decrease in lichen-abundant forest. The role that forestry has played in causing this decline can be debated, but forestry can have a significant role in reversing the trend and improving ground lichen conditions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0759-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Water Planning and Hydro-Climatic Change in the Murray-Darling Basin,Australia

More than a third of humanity lives in regions with less than 1 million liters of fresh water per person per year. Population growth will increase water demand while climate change in arid and semi-arid areas may reduce water availability. The Murray-Darling Basin in Australia is a region where water reform and planning have been used to reduce consumptive extraction to better sustain river ecosystems under climate variability. Using actual data and previously published models that account for climate variability and climate change, the trade-off between water extractions and water essential to the long-term ecological function of river systems is analysed. The findings indicate that better water planning and a more complete understanding of the effects of irrigation on regional climate evapotranspiration could: (1) increase the overall benefits of consumptive and non-consumptive water use; (2) improve riparian environments under climate variability; and (3) be achieved with only small effects on the profits and gross value of food and fiber production.     

Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) in Decline: High Mortality of Three Populations in the Northern Baltic Sea

The development of three pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) populations in the northern Baltic Sea was monitored using standardized multimesh gillnets in 1995–2009. Declining trends in the abundances of pikeperch over 40 cm total length, low numbers of individuals older than 6 years, and high mortality rates were observed in all three populations. In the site with the largest commercial catches per unit area and a rapidly increased colony of great cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis Blumenbach 1798), also the abundance of pikeperch below 40 cm total length and year-class strength showed declining trends. The adverse population level changes did not correlate with changes in water quality or eutrophication status. Together, the results suggest that in all study sites fisheries are harvesting a large proportion of the pikeperch soon after or even before reaching the maturity, and that predation from great cormorants may increase mortality of juveniles. Pikeperch is important not only for fisheries but also for ecosystem functioning, and our results point at the need for further management measures to ensure viable populations in the areas studied.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0429-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

The 2015–2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a ‘non-event’. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015–2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. Using a social-ecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A climatology of regional background ozone at different elevations in Switzerland (1992–1998)

The ozone records of several monitoring stations in Switzerland from 1992 to 1998 are investigated with respect to the variability observed during regional background conditions, i.e. conditions with little detectable local or regional-scale influences as evident by NO_x and CO concentrations. The sites cover different altitudes between 490 and 3600 m asl. They are characteristic of near-surface conditions, the top of the planetary boundary layer or residual layer, the complex atmosphere in an alpine valley, and the free troposphere. The results reveal a distinctly different ozone variability (diurnal cycles, seasonal cycles, trends) during regional background conditions compared to all days. The estimated annual average ozone concentration under these conditions is between 33 and 50 ppb, dependent on altitude, with a spring maximum and an autumn/winter minimum. Differences in background ozone are found depending on the synoptic weather type. For all sites a positive ozone trend is calculated for background conditions that is larger than for all data. For the latter, the trends appear to be stronger positive for the last 7 years than for the last 11 years.