广东省"十四五"时期机动车污染减排潜力研究

为研究广东省“十四五”时期机动车污染减排潜力,设置3种方案进行减排分析。结果表明,淘汰老旧机动车能较好地削减机动车NO_x排放量,而对挥发性有机物(VOCs)的净减排效果不佳。淘汰国Ⅱ及以下排放标准汽油车、国Ⅲ及以下排放标准柴油货车情况下,广东省各市NO_x削减比例均超过10%。汕尾市、湛江市、茂名市、云浮市、揭阳市、阳江市、潮州市、清远市、河源市和梅州市淘汰国Ⅱ及以下排放标准机动车、50%国Ⅲ排放标准柴油货车能达到NO_x减排10%以上的效果,而珠三角地区城市需全面淘汰国Ⅲ及以下排放标准柴油货车才能达到该减排效果。为遏制广东省O₃浓度上升势头并推动其进入下降通道,要加强“油、路、车”协同管控,珠三角地区应采取比粤东、粤西和粤北地区更有力的协同控制措施。     

On-road measurement of fine particle and nitrogen oxide emissions from light- and heavy-duty motor vehicles

An updated assessment of fine particle emissions from light- and heavy-duty vehicles is needed due to recent changes to the composition of gasoline and diesel fuel, more stringent emission standards applying to new vehicles sold in the 1990s, and the adoption of a new ambient air quality standard for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in the United States. This paper reports the measurement of emissions from vehicles in a northern California roadway tunnel during summer 1997. Separate measurements were made of uphill traffic in two tunnel bores: one bore carried both light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty diesel trucks, and the second bore was reserved for light-duty vehicles. Ninety-eight percent of the light-duty vehicles were gasoline-powered. In the tunnel, heavy-duty diesel trucks emitted 24, 37, and 21 times more fine particle, black carbon, and sulfate mass per unit mass of fuel burned than light-duty vehicles. Heavy-duty diesel trucks also emitted 15–20 times the number of particles per unit mass of fuel burned compared to light-duty vehicles. Fine particle emissions from both vehicle classes were composed mostly of carbon; diesel-derived particulate matter contained more black carbon (51±11% of PM_2.5 mass) than did light-duty fine particle emissions (33±4%). Sulfate comprised only 2% of total fine particle emissions for both vehicle classes. Sulfate emissions measured in this study for heavy-duty diesel trucks are significantly lower than values reported in earlier studies conducted before the introduction of low-sulfur diesel fuel. This study suggests that heavy-duty diesel vehicles in California are responsible for nearly half of oxides of nitrogen emissions and greater than three-quarters of exhaust fine particle emissions from on-road motor vehicles.     

Review of light-duty diesel and heavy-duty diesel gasoline inspection programs

Emissions from diesel vehicles and gas-powered heavy-duty vehicles are becoming a new focus of many inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. Diesel particulate matter (PM) is increasingly becoming more recognized as an important health concern, while at the same time, the public awareness of diesel PM emissions because of their visibility have combined to increase the focus on diesel emissions in the United States. This has resulted in an increased interest by some states in including heavy-duty vehicle testing in their I/M program. This paper provides an overview of existing I/M programs focused on testing light-duty diesel vehicles, heavy-duty diesel vehicles, and heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDGVs). Information on 39 I/M programs in 27 different states in the United States plus 9 international inspection programs is included. Information on the status of diesel emissions technology and current test procedures is also presented. The goal is to provide useful information for air quality managers as they work to decide whether such I/M programs would be worth pursuing in their respective areas and in evaluating the emissions measurement technology to be used in the program. Testing of HDGVs is generally limited to idle testing, because dynamometer testing of these vehicles is not practical, and most were not certified on a chassis basis. Testing of diesel vehicles has mostly been limited to SAE J1667 "snap-idle" opacity testing. Cost-effective technology for measuring diesel emissions currently does not exist, and, therefore, opacity-type measurements, although not effective at reducing the pollutants of most significant health concern, will continue to be used.     

Idle emissions from heavy-duty diesel and natural gas vehicles at high altitude

Idle emissions of total hydrocarbon (THC), CO, NOx, and particulate matter (PM) were measured from 24 heavy-duty diesel-fueled (12 trucks and 12 buses) and 4 heavy-duty compressed natural gas (CNG)-fueled vehicles. The volatile organic fraction (VOF) of PM and aldehyde emissions were also measured for many of the diesel vehicles. Experiments were conducted at 1609 m above sea level using a full exhaust flow dilution tunnel method identical to that used for heavy-duty engine Federal Test Procedure (FTP) testing. Diesel trucks averaged 0.170 g/min THC, 1.183 g/min CO, 1.416 g/min NOx, and 0.030 g/min PM. Diesel buses averaged 0.137 g/min THC, 1.326 g/min CO, 2.015 g/min NOx, and 0.048 g/min PM. Results are compared to idle emission factors from the MOBILE5 and PART5 inventory models. The models significantly (45-75%) overestimate emissions of THC and CO in comparison with results measured from the fleet of vehicles examined in this study. Measured NOx emissions were significantly higher (30-100%) than model predictions. For the pre-1999 (pre-consent decree) truck engines examined in this study, idle NOx emissions increased with model year with a linear fit (r2 = 0.6). PART5 nationwide fleet average emissions are within 1 order of magnitude of emissions for the group of vehicles tested in this study. Aldehyde emissions for bus idling averaged 6 mg/min. The VOF averaged 19% of total PM for buses and 49% for trucks. CNG vehicle idle emissions averaged 1.435 g/min for THC, 1.119 g/min for CO, 0.267 g/min for NOx, and 0.003 g/min for PM. The g/min PM emissions are only a small fraction of g/min PM emissions during vehicle driving. However, idle emissions of NOx, CO, and THC are significant in comparison with driving emissions.     

Morphology and composition of particles emitted from conventional and alternative fuel vehicles

Size, morphology, and composition of airborne particles strongly affect human health and visibility, precipitation, and the kinetic characteristics of particles. In this study, the morphology and chemical composition of particles emitted from conventional (diesel and gasoline) and alternative (CNG and methanol) fuel vehicles were characterized through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX). The SEM images revealed that the size of primary particles (without agglomeration) was approximately 10 nm in the exhaust from all the tested vehicles. The particles emitted from gasoline vehicle (GV), CNG vehicle (CNGV), and methanol vehicle (MV) had the same median diameter, 62 nm, which was smaller than those from heavy diesel vehicle (HDV) and light diesel vehicle (LDV). Soot was observed in the HDV, LDV, and GV samples but not in the CNGV and MV. The fractal dimension, which was used to quantify the degree of irregularity of soot, was 1.752 ± 0.014, 1.789 ± 0.076, and 1.769 ± 0.006 in the exhaust from HDV, LDV, and GV samples, respectively. The particles discharged by all tested vehicles contained the elements C, O, Fe, and Na. The main element in the samples of HDV, LDV, and GV was C, while O was the main element in the samples of alternative fuel vehicles. The profiles of minor elements were more complex in the emissions of alternative fuel vehicles than those in the emissions of conventional fuel vehicles. The results improved our understanding of the morphology and elemental composition of particles emitted from vehicles powered by diesel, gasoline, CNG, and methanol.

     

Black carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emissions from vehicles in the United States-Mexico border region: pilot study

The investigators developed a system to measure black carbon (BC) and particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emission factors during roadside sampling in four cities along the United States-Mexico border, Calexico/Mexicali and El Paso/Juarez. The measurement system included a photoacoustic analyzer for BC, a photoelectric aerosol sensor for particle-bound PAHs, and a carbon dioxide (CO2) analyzer. When a vehicle with measurable emissions passed the system probe, corresponding BC, PAH, and CO2 peaks were evident, and a fuel-based emission factor was estimated. A picture of each vehicle was also recorded with a digital camera. The advantage of this system, compared with other roadside methods, is the direct measurement of particulate matter components and limited interference from roadside dust. The study revealed some interesting trends: Mexican buses and all medium-duty trucks were more frequently identified as high emitters of BC and PAH than heavy-duty trucks or passenger vehicles. In addition, because of the high daily mileage of buses, they are good candidates for additional study. Mexican trucks and buses had higher average emission factors compared with U.S. trucks and buses, but the differences were not statistically significant. Few passenger vehicles had measurable BC and PAH emissions, although the highest emission factor came from an older model passenger vehicle licensed in Baja California.     

Review of Light-Duty Diesel and Heavy-Duty Diesel Gasoline Inspection Programs

Abstract

Emissions from diesel vehicles and gas-powered heavyduty vehicles are becoming a new focus of many inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. Diesel particulate matter (PM) is increasingly becoming more recognized as an important health concern, while at the same time, the public awareness of diesel PM emissions because of their visibility have combined to increase the focus on diesel emissions in the United States. This has resulted in an increased interest by some states in including heavy-duty vehicle testing in their I/M program.

This paper provides an overview of existing I/M programs focused on testing light-duty diesel vehicles, heavyduty diesel vehicles, and heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDGVs). Information on 39 I/M programs in 27 different states in the United States plus 9 international inspection programs is included. Information on the status of diesel emissions technology and current test procedures is also presented. The goal is to provide useful information for air quality managers as they work to decide whether such I/M programs would be worth pursuing in their respective areas and in evaluating the emissions measurement technology to be used in the program. Testing of HDGVs is generally limited to idle testing, because dynamometer testing of these vehicles is not practical, and most were not certified on a chassis basis.

Testing of diesel vehicles has mostly been limited to SAE J1667 “snap-idle” opacity testing. Cost-effective technology for measuring diesel emissions currently does not exist, and, therefore, opacity-type measurements, although not effective at reducing the pollutants of most significant health concern, will continue to be used.     

Black Carbon and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Emissions from Vehicles in the United States–Mexico Border Region: Pilot Study

The investigators developed a system to measure black carbon (BC) and particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emission factors during roadside sampling in four cities along the United States–Mexico border, Calexico/Mexicali and El Paso/Juárez. The measurement system included a photoacoustic analyzer for BC, a photoelectric aerosol sensor for particle-bound PAHs, and a carbon dioxide (CO₂) analyzer. When a vehicle with measurable emissions passed the system probe, corresponding BC, PAH, and CO₂ peaks were evident, and a fuel-based emission factor was estimated. A picture of each vehicle was also recorded with a digital camera. The advantage of this system, compared with other roadside methods, is the direct measurement of particulate matter components and limited interference from roadside dust. The study revealed some interesting trends: Mexican buses and all medium-duty trucks were more frequently identified as high emitters of BC and PAH than heavy-duty trucks or passenger vehicles. In addition, because of the high daily mileage of buses, they are good candidates for additional study. Mexican trucks and buses had higher average emission factors compared with U.S. trucks and buses, but the differences were not statistically significant. Few passenger vehicles had measurable BC and PAH emissions, although the highest emission factor came from an older model passenger vehicle licensed in Baja California.     

Costs, emissions reductions, and vehicle repair: evidence from Arizona

The Arizona inspection and maintenance (I/M) program provides one of the first opportunities to examine the costs and effectiveness of vehicle emission repair. This paper examines various aspects of emission reductions, fuel economy improvements, and repair costs, drawing data from over 80,000 vehicles that failed the I/M test in Arizona between 1995 and the first half of 1996. We summarize the wealth of data on repair from the Arizona program and highlight its limitations. Because missing or incomplete cost information has been a serious shortcoming for the evaluation of I/M programs, we develop a method for estimating repair costs when they are not reported. We find surprising evidence that almost one quarter of all vehicles that take the I/M test are never observed to pass the test. Using a statistical analysis, we provide some information about the differences between the vehicles that pass and those that do not. Older, more polluting vehicles are much more likely never to pass the I/M test, and their expected repair costs are much higher than those for newer cars. This paper summarizes the evidence on costs and emission reductions in the Arizona program, comparing costs and emissions reductions between cars and trucks. Finally, we examine the potential for more cost-effective repair, first through an analysis of tightening I/M cut points and then by calculating the cost savings of achieving different emission reduction goals when the most cost-effective repairs are made first.     

An investigation on the physical,chemical and ecotoxicological characteristics of particulate matter emitted from light-duty vehicles

Particulate matter (PM) emitted from three light-duty vehicles was studied in terms of its physicochemical and ecotoxicological character using Microtox^® bioassay tests. A diesel vehicle equipped with an oxidation catalyst emitted PM which consisted of carbon species at over 97%. PM from a diesel vehicle with a particle filter (DPF) consisted of almost equal amounts of carbon species and ions, while a gasoline vehicle emitted PM consisting of ～90% carbon and ～10% ions. Both the DPF and the gasoline vehicles produced a distinct nucleation mode at 120 km/h. The PM emitted from the DPF and the gasoline vehicles was less ecotoxic than that of conventional diesel, but not in direct proportion to the emission levels of the different vehicles. These results indicate that PM emission reductions are not equally translated into ecotoxicity reductions, implying some deficiencies on the actual environmental impact of emission control technologies and regulations.     

Idle Emissions from Medium Heavy-Duty Diesel and Gasoline Trucks

Abstract

Idle emissions data from 19 medium heavy-duty diesel and gasoline trucks are presented in this paper. Emissions from these trucks were characterized using full-flow exhaust dilution as part of the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Project E-55/59. Idle emissions data were not available from dedicated measurements, but were extracted from the continuous emissions data on the low-speed transient mode of the medium heavy-duty truck (MHDTLO) cycle. The four gasoline trucks produced very low oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and negligible particulate matter (PM) during idle. However, carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HCs) from these four trucks were approximately 285 and 153 g/hr on average, respectively. The gasoline trucks consumed substantially more fuel at an hourly rate (0.84 gal/hr) than their diesel counterparts (0.44 gal/hr) during idling. The diesel trucks, on the other hand, emitted higher NO_x (79 g/hr) and comparatively higher PM (4.1 g/hr), on average, than the gasoline trucks (3.8 g/hr of NO_x and 0.9 g/hr of PM, on average). Idle NO_x emissions from diesel trucks were high for post-1992 model year engines, but no trends were observed for fuel consumption. Idle emissions and fuel consumption from the medium heavy-duty diesel trucks (MHDDTs) were marginally lower than those from the heavy heavy-duty diesel trucks (HHDDTs), previously reported in the literature.     

Costs,Emissions Reductions,and Vehicle Repair: Evidence from Arizona

ABSTRACT

The Arizona inspection and maintenance (I/M) program provides one of the first opportunities to examine the costs and effectiveness of vehicle emission repair. This paper examines various aspects of emission reductions, fuel economy improvements, and repair costs, drawing data from over 80,000 vehicles that failed the I/M test in Arizona between 1995 and the first half of 1996. We summarize the wealth of data on repair from the Arizona program and highlight its limitations. Because missing or incomplete cost information has been a serious shortcoming for the evaluation of I/M programs, we develop a method for estimating repair costs when they are not reported. We find surprising evidence that almost one quarter of all vehicles that take the I/M test are never observed to pass the test. Using a statistical analysis, we provide some information about the differences between the vehicles that pass and those that do not. Older, more polluting vehicles are much more likely never to pass the I/M test, and their expected repair costs are much higher than those for newer cars.

This paper summarizes the evidence on costs and emission reductions in the Arizona program, comparing costs and emissions reductions between cars and trucks. Finally, we examine the potential for more cost-effective repair, first through an analysis of tightening I/M cut points and then by calculating the cost savings of achieving different emission reduction goals when the most cost-effective repairs are made first.     

Unregulated greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from current technology heavy-duty vehicles

The study presents the measurement of carbonyl, BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene), ammonia, elemental/organic carbon (EC/OC), and greenhouse gas emissions from modern heavy-duty diesel and natural gas vehicles. Vehicles from different vocations that included goods movement, refuse trucks, and transit buses were tested on driving cycles representative of their duty cycle. The natural gas vehicle technologies included the stoichiometric engine platform equipped with a three-way catalyst and a diesel-like dual-fuel high-pressure direct-injection technology equipped with a diesel particulate filter (DPF) and a selective catalytic reduction (SCR). The diesel vehicles were equipped with a DPF and SCR. Results of the study show that the BTEX emissions were below detection limits for both diesel and natural gas vehicles, while carbonyl emissions were observed during cold start and low-temperature operations of the natural gas vehicles. Ammonia emissions of about 1 g/mile were observed from the stoichiometric natural gas vehicles equipped with TWC over all the driving cycles. The tailpipe GWP of the stoichiometric natural gas goods movement application was 7% lower than DPF and SCR equipped diesel. In the case of a refuse truck application the stoichiometric natural gas engine exhibited 22% lower GWP than a diesel vehicle. Tailpipe methane emissions contribute to less than 6% of the total GHG emissions.

Implications: Modern heavy-duty diesel and natural gas engines are equipped with multiple after-treatment systems and complex control strategies aimed at meeting both the performance standards for the end user and meeting stringent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions regulation. Compared to older technology diesel and natural gas engines, modern engines and after-treatment technology have reduced unregulated emissions to levels close to detection limits. However, brief periods of inefficiencies related to low exhaust thermal energy have been shown to increase both carbonyl and nitrous oxide emissions.     

Contribution of the gasoline distribution cycle to volatile organic compound emissions in the metropolitan area of Mexico City

Gasoline distribution in the metropolitan area of Mexico City (MAMC) represents an area of opportunity for the abatement of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. The gasoline distribution in this huge urban center encompasses several operations: (1) storage in bulk and distribution plants, (2) transportation to gasoline service stations, (3) unloading at service stations' underground tanks, and (4) gasoline dispensing. In this study, hydrocarbon (HC) emissions resulting from breathing losses in closed reservoirs, leakage, and spillage from the operations just listed were calculated using both field measurements and reported emission factors. The results show that the contribution of volatile HC emissions due to storage, distribution, and sales of gasoline is 6651 t/year, approximately 13 times higher than previously reported values. Tank truck transportation results in 53.9% of the gasoline emissions, and 31.5% of emissions are generated when loading the tank trucks. The high concentration of emissions in the gasoline transportation and loading operations by tank trucks has been ascribed to (1) highly frequent trips from distribution plant to gasoline stations, and vice versa, to cope with excessive gasoline sales per gasoline station; (2) low leakproofness of tank trucks; and (3) poor training of employees. In addition, the contribution to HC evaporative and exhaust emissions from the vehicles of the MAMC was also evaluated.     

Development of molecular marker source profiles for emissions from on-road gasoline and diesel vehicle fleets

As part of the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study, relatively large fleets of gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles were tested on a chassis dynamometer to develop chemical source profiles for source attribution of atmospheric particulate matter in California's South Coast Air Basin. Gasoline vehicles were tested in cold-start and warm-start conditions, and diesel vehicles were tested through several driving cycles. Tailpipe emissions of particulate matter were analyzed for organic tracer compounds, including hopanes, steranes, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Large intervehicle variation was seen in emission rate and composition, and results were averaged to examine the impacts of vehicle ages, weight classes, and driving cycles on the variation. Average profiles, weighted by mass emission rate, had much lower uncertainty than that associated with intervehicle variation. Mass emission rates and elemental carbon/organic carbon (EC/OC) ratios for gasoline vehicle age classes were influenced most by use of cold-start or warm-start driving cycle (factor of 2-7). Individual smoker vehicles had a large range of mass and EC/OC (factors of 40 and 625, respectively). Gasoline vehicle age averages, data on vehicle ages and miles traveled in the area, and several assumptions about smoker contributions were used to create emissions profiles representative of on-road vehicle fleets in the Los Angeles area in 2001. In the representative gasoline fleet profiles, variation was further reduced, with cold-start or warm-start and the representation of smoker vehicles making a difference of approximately a factor of two in mass emission rate and EC/OC. Diesel vehicle profiles were created on the basis of vehicle age, weight class, and driving cycle. Mass emission rate and EC/OC for diesel averages were influenced by vehicle age (factor of 2-5), weight class (factor of 2-7), and driving cycle (factor of 10-20). Absolute and relative emissions of molecular marker compounds showed levels of variation similar to those of mass and EC/OC.     

In-use fuel economy of hybrid-electric school buses in Iowa

Although it is much safer and more fuel-efficient to transport children to school in buses than in private vehicles, school buses in the United States still consume 822 million gal of diesel fuel annually, and school transportation costs can account for a significant portion of resource-constrained school district budgets. Additionally, children in diesel-powered school buses may be exposed to higher levels of particulates and other pollutants than children in cars. One solution to emission and fuel concerns is use of hybrid-electric school buses, which have the potential to reduce emissions and overall lifecycle costs compared with conventional diesel buses. Hybrid-electric technologies are available in the passenger vehicle market as well as the transit bus market and have a track record indicating fuel economy and emissions benefits. This paper summarizes the results of an in-use fuel economy evaluation for two plug-in hybrid school buses deployed in two different school districts in Iowa. Each school district selected a control bus with a route similar to that of the hybrid bus. Odometer readings, fuel consumption, and maintenance needs were recorded for each bus. The buses were deployed in 2008 and data were collected through May 2010. Fuel consumption was calculated for each school district. In Nevada, IA, the overall average fuel economy was 8.23 mpg for the hybrid and 6.35 mpg for the control bus. In Sigourney, IA, the overall average fuel economy was 8.94 mpg for the hybrid and 6.42 mpg for the control bus. The fuel consumption data were compared for the hybrid and control buses using a Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results indicate that fuel economy for the Nevada hybrid bus was 29.6% better than for the Nevada control bus, and fuel economy for the Sigourney hybrid bus was 39.2% higher than for the Sigourney control bus. Both differences were statistically significant.     

Relative importance of school bus-related microenvironments to children's pollutant exposure

Real-time concentrations of black carbon, particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, nitrogen dioxide, and fine particulate counts, as well as integrated and real-time fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass concentrations were measured inside school buses during long commutes on Los Angeles Unified School District bus routes, at bus stops along the routes, at the bus loading/unloading zone in front of the selected school, and at nearby urban "background" sites. Across all of the pollutants, mean concentrations during bus commutes were higher than in any other microenvironment. Mean exposures (mean concentration times time spent in a particular microenvironment) in bus commutes were between 50 and 200 times greater than those for the loading/unloading microenvironment, and 20-40 times higher than those for the bus stops, depending on the pollutant. Although the analyzed school bus commutes represented only 10% of a child's day, on average they contributed one-third of a child's 24-hr overall black carbon exposure during a school day. For species closely related to vehicle exhaust, the within- cabin exposures were generally dominated by the effect of surrounding traffic when windows were open and by the bus's own exhaust when windows were closed. Low-emitting buses generally exhibited high concentrations only when traveling behind a diesel vehicle, whereas high-emitting buses exhibited high concentrations both when following other diesel vehicles and when idling without another diesel vehicle in front of the bus. To reduce school bus commute exposures, we recommend minimizing commute times, avoiding caravanning with other school buses, using the cleanest buses for the longest bus routes, maintaining conventional diesel buses to eliminate visible emissions, and transitioning to cleaner fuels and advanced particulate control technologies as soon as possible.     

A Fuel-Based Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory

Abstract

A fuel-based methodology for calculating motor vehicle emission inventories is presented. In the fuel-based method, emission factors are normalized to fuel consumption and expressed as grams of pollutant emitted per gallon of gasoline burned. Fleet-average emission factors are calculated from the measured on-road emissions of a large, random sample of vehicles. Gasoline use is known at the state level from sales tax data, and may be disaggregated to individual air basins. A fuel-based motor vehicle CO inventory was calculated for the South Coast Air Basin in California for summer 1991. Emission factors were calculated from remote sensing measurements of more than 70,000 in-use vehicles. Stabilized exhaust emissions of CO were estimated to be 4400 tons/day for cars and 1500 tons/day for light-duty and medium- duty trucks, with an estimated uncertainty of ±20% for cars and ±30% for trucks. Total motor vehicle CO emissions, including incremental start emissions and emissions from heavy-duty vehicles were estimated to be 7900 tons/day. Fuelbased inventory estimates were greater than those of California's MVEI 7F model by factors of 2.2 for cars and 2.6 for trucks. A draft version of California's MVEI 7G model, which includes increased contributions from high-emitting vehicles and off-cycle emissions, predicted CO emissions which closely matched the fuel-based inventory. An analysis of CO mass emissions as a function of vehicle age revealed that cars and trucks which were ten or more years old were responsible for 58% of stabilized exhaust CO emissions from all cars and trucks.     

Airshed Model Evaluation of Reactivity Adjustment Factors Calculated with the Maximum Incremental Reactivity Scale for Transitional-Low Emission Vehicles

Abstract

The California Air Resources Board recently adopted regulations for light- and medium-duty vehicles that require reductions in the ozone-forming potential or “reactivity,” rather than the mass, of nonmethane organic gas (NMOG) emissions. The regulations allow sale of all alternatively fueled vehicles (AFVs) that meet NMOG exhaust emission standards equivalent in reactivity to those set for vehicles fueled with conventional gasoline. Reactivity adjustment factors (RAFs), the ratio of the reactivity (per gram) of the AFV exhaust to that of the conventionally fueled vehicle (CFV), are used to correct the stringent exhaust emission standards. Complete chemical speciation of the exhaust and conversion of each NMOG species to an appropriate mass of ozone using the maximum incremental reactivity (MIR) scale of Carter determines the RAF. The MIR approach defines reactivity where NMOG control is the most effective strategy in reducing ozone concentrations, and assumes it is not important to define reactivity at other conditions, i.e., where NO_x is the limiting precursor.

This study used the Carnegie/California Institute of Technology airshed model to evaluate whether the RAF-adjusted AFV emissions result in ozone impacts equivalent to those of CFV emissions. A matrix of two ozone episodes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California, two base emission inventories, and exhaust emissions from three alternative fuels that meet the first level of the low emission vehicle standards bounds the expected range of conditions. Although very good agreement was found previously for individual NMOG species,² this study noted deviations of up to ±15 percent from the equal ozone impacts for any vehicle/fuel combination required by the California regulations. These deviations appear to be attributable to differences in spatial and temporal patterns of emissions between vehicle fleets, rather than a problem with the MIR approach. The first formally adopted RAF, a value of 0.41 for 85 percent methanol/15 percent gasoline-fueled vehicles, includes a 10 percent increase based on the airshed modeling. The correction to the RAF is different for other fuels and may be different for air basins other than the SoCAB.     

A life-cycle comparison of alternative automobile fuels

We examine the life cycles of gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and ethanol (C2H5OH)-fueled internal combustion engine (ICE) automobiles. Port and direct injection and spark and compression ignition engines are examined. We investigate diesel fuel from both petroleum and biosources as well as C2H5OH from corn, herbaceous bio-mass, and woody biomass. The baseline vehicle is a gasoline-fueled 1998 Ford Taurus. We optimize the other fuel/powertrain combinations for each specific fuel as a part of making the vehicles comparable to the baseline in terms of range, emissions level, and vehicle lifetime. Life-cycle calculations are done using the economic input-output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) software; fuel cycles and vehicle end-of-life stages are based on published model results. We find that recent advances in gasoline vehicles, the low petroleum price, and the extensive gasoline infrastructure make it difficult for any alternative fuel to become commercially viable. The most attractive alternative fuel is compressed natural gas because it is less expensive than gasoline, has lower regulated pollutant and toxics emissions, produces less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is available in North America in large quantities. However, the bulk and weight of gas storage cylinders required for the vehicle to attain a range comparable to that of gasoline vehicles necessitates a redesign of the engine and chassis. Additional natural gas transportation and distribution infrastructure is required for large-scale use of natural gas for transportation. Diesel engines are extremely attractive in terms of energy efficiency, but expert judgment is divided on whether these engines will be able to meet strict emissions standards, even with reformulated fuel. The attractiveness of direct injection engines depends on their being able to meet strict emissions standards without losing their greater efficiency. Biofuels offer lower GHG emissions, are sustainable, and reduce the demand for imported fuels. Fuels from food sources, such as biodiesel from soybeans and C2H5OH from corn, can be attractive only if the co-products are in high demand and if the fuel production does not diminish the food supply. C2H5OH from herbaceous or woody biomass could replace the gasoline burned in the light-duty fleet while supplying electricity as a co-product. While it costs more than gasoline, bioethanol would be attractive if the price of gasoline doubled, if significant reductions in GHG emissions were required, or if fuel economy regulations for gasoline vehicles were tightened.