Estimating the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in Kazakhstan

As part of the studies related to the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Republic of Kazakhstan started activities to inventory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assess of GHG mitigation options. The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the possibility of mitigating GHG emissions and determine the mitigation priorities. It presents a compilation of the possible options and their assessment in terms of major criteria and implementation feasibility. Taking into account the structure of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990, preliminary estimates of the potential for mitigation are presented for eight options for the energy sector and agriculture and forestry sector. The reference scenario prepared by expert assessments assumes a reduction of CO₂ emissions in 1996–1998 by about 26% from the 1990 level due to general economic decline, but then emissions increase. It is estimated that the total potential for the mitigation of CO₂ emissions for the year 2000 is 3% of the CO₂ emissions in the reference scenario. The annual reduction in methane emissions due to the estimated options can amount to 5%–6% of the 1990 level.

     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.     

Tapping the leakages: Methane losses, mitigation options and policy issues for Russian long distance gas transmission pipelines

The Russian natural gas industry is the world's largest producer and transporter of natural gas. This paper aims to characterize the methane emissions from Russian natural gas transmission operations, to explain projects to reduce these emissions, and to characterize the role of emissions reduction within the context of current GHG policy. It draws on the most recent independent measurements at all parts of the Russian long distance transport system made by the Wuppertal Institute in 2003 and combines these results with the findings from the US Natural Gas STAR Program on GHG mitigation options and economics.With this background the paper concludes that the methane emissions from the Russian natural gas long distance network are approximately 0.6% of the natural gas delivered. Mitigating these emissions can create new revenue streams for the operator in the form of reduced costs, increased gas throughput and sales, and earned carbon credits. Specific emissions sources that have cost-effective mitigation solutions are also opportunities for outside investment for the Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanism or other carbon markets.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.

     

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the Canadian Agricultural Sector

This article presents a methodological framework for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) application. The overall objective is to demonstrate SEA as a systematic and structured policy, plan, and program (PPP) decision support tool. In order to accomplish this objective, a stakeholder-based SEA application to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy options in Canadian agriculture is presented. Using a mail-out impact assessment exercise, agricultural producers and nonproducers from across the Canadian prairie region were asked to evaluate five competing GHG mitigation options against 13 valued environmental components (VECs). Data were analyzed using multi-criteria and exploratory analytical techniques. The results suggest considerable variation in perceived impacts and GHG mitigation policy preferences, suggesting that a blanket policy approach to GHG mitigation will create gainers and losers based on soil type and associate cropping and on-farm management practices. It is possible to identify a series of regional greenhouse gas mitigation programs that are robust, socially meaningful, and operationally relevant to both agricultural producers and policy decision makers. The assessment demonstrates the ability of SEA to address, in an operational sense, environmental problems that are characterized by conflicting interests and competing objectives and alternatives. A structured and systematic SEA methodology provides the necessary decision support framework for the consideration of impacts, and allows for PPPs to be assessed based on a much broader set of properties, objectives, criteria, and constraints whereas maintaining rigor and accountability in the assessment process.     

Linking climate policy across economic sectors: A case for green growth in Nepal

While the energy sector is the largest global contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector account for up to 80% of GHG emissions in the least developed countries (LDCs). Despite this, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of LDCs, including Nepal, focus primarily on climate mitigation in the energy sector. This paper introduces green growth—a way to foster economic growth while ensuring access to resources and environmental services—as an approach to improving climate policy coherence across sectors. Using Nepal as a case country, this study models the anticipated changes in resource use and GHG emissions between 2015 and 2030, that would result from implementing climate mitigation actions in Nepal's NDC. The model uses four different scenarios. They link NDC and policies across economic sectors and offer policy insights regarding (1) energy losses that could cost up to 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, (2) protection of forest resources by reducing the use of biomass fuels from 465 million gigajoules (GJ) in 2015 to 195 million GJ in 2030, and (3) a significant reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) case by greater use of electricity from hydropower rather than biomass. These policy insights are significant for Nepal and other LDCs as they seek an energy transition towards using more renewable energy and electricity.     

Meeting the climate change challenge: a scan of greenhouse gas emissions in BC communities

The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is taking significant steps towards climate change mitigation, including a carbon tax on fossil fuels and legislation that mandates greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions within public sector organisations and GHG reduction targets for municipalities. This paper carries out a preliminary scan of the GHG emissions of BC communities using the provincially mandated Community Energy and Emissions Inventory reports. We map trends in energy consumption and emissions per capita while uncovering correlations between these variables and land-use planning, geographic, and demographic variables. These data have shown that: (1) energy consumption in BC is an adequate proxy for GHG emissions; (2) transportation, more than buildings, is a strong driver of overall GHG emissions; (3) building emissions are not likely to be strongly influenced by dwelling type, but density of buildings is crucial; (4) geographic location influences emissions; and (5) population size and age do not appear to influence per capita emissions. These findings are particularly important as they suggest that the potentially intransigent factors of income and population size need not be barriers to achieving significant GHG reductions. The policy onus thus falls squarely on transportation planning, land-use, energy conservation, and fuel switching. This in turn highlights the importance of deeper underlying sociocultural and political preferences, which shape the behaviours that have a strong bearing on emissions profiles.     

Assessing alternatives for mitigating net greenhouse gas emissions and increasing yields from rice production in China over the next twenty years

Assessments of the efficacy of mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy rice systems have typically been analyzed based on field studies. Extrapolation of the mitigation potential of alternative management practices from field studies to a national scale may be enhanced by spatially explicit process models, like the DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) model. Our objective was to analyze the impacts of mitigation alternatives, management of water, fertilizer, and rice straw, on net GHG emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide fluxes), yields, and water use. After constructing a GIS database of soil, climate, rice cropping area and systems, and management practices, we ran DNDC with 21-yr alternative management schemes for each of the approximately 2500 counties in China. Results indicate that, despite large-scale adoption of midseason drainage, there is still large potential for additional methane reductions from Chinese rice paddies of 20 to 60% over 2000-2020. However, changes in management for reducing CH4 emissions simultaneously affect soil carbon dynamics as well as N2O emissions and can thereby reorder the ranking of technical mitigation effectiveness. The order of net GHG emissions reduction effectiveness found here is upland rice > shallow flooding > ammonium sulfate > midseason drainage > off-season straw > slow-release fertilizer > continuous flooding. Most of the management alternatives produced yields comparable to the baseline; however, continuous flooding and upland rice significantly reduced yields. Water management strategies appear to be the most technically promising GHG mitigation alternatives, with shallow flooding providing additional benefits of both water conservation and increased yields.     

Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO₂ emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.

     

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.     

Policy Development for Biodiversity Offsets: A Review of Offset Frameworks

Biodiversity offsets seek to compensate for residual environmental impacts of planned developments after appropriate steps have been taken to avoid, minimize or restore impacts on site. Offsets are emerging as an increasingly employed mechanism for achieving net environmental benefits, with offset policies being advanced in a wide range of countries (i.e., United States, Australia, Brazil, Colombia, and South Africa). To support policy development for biodiversity offsets, we review a set of major offset policy frameworks—US wetlands mitigation, US conservation banking, EU Natura 2000, Australian offset policies in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia, and Brazilian industrial and forest offsets. We compare how the frameworks define offset policy goals, approach the mitigation process, and address six key issues for implementing offsets: (1) equivalence of project impacts with offset gains; (2) location of the offset relative to the impact site; (3) “additionality” (a new contribution to conservation) and acceptable types of offsets; (4) timing of project impacts versus offset benefits; (5) offset duration and compliance; and (6) “currency” and mitigation replacement ratios. We find substantial policy commonalities that may serve as a sound basis for future development of biodiversity offsets policy. We also identify issues requiring further policy guidance, including how best to: (1) ensure conformance with the mitigation hierarchy; (2) identify the most environmentally preferable offsets within a landscape context; and (3) determine appropriate mitigation replacement ratios.     

Bulgaria Country Study to address climate change mitigation

Future developments of the Bulgarian economy, energy demand, energy supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected and evaluated for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Different methods and approaches are used at different stages of the study with a tendency to incorporate them in a single integrated resource planning tool such as the MARKAL-MACRO model. The results obtained indicate that the aim of Framework Convention of Climate Change to have year 2000 GHG emissions below the base year 1988 emissions will be achieved without further mitigation steps. Reducing the expected increase of GHG emissions in the decade 2000 to 2010 requires a package of mitigation measures to be implemented in the next few years.

     

Estimating local greenhouse gas emissions—A case study on a Portuguese municipality

This paper describes the study that led to the development of a carbon dioxide emissions matrix for the Oeiras municipality, one of the largest Portuguese municipalities, located in the metropolitan area of Lisbon. This matrix takes into account the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, due to an increase of electricity demand in buildings as well as solid and liquid wastes treatment, from the domestic and services sectors.Using emission factors that were calculated from the relationship between the electricity produced and amount of treated wastes, the GHG emissions in the Oeiras municipality, were estimated for a time series of 6 years (1998–2003).The obtained results showed that the electricity sector accounts for about 75% of the municipal emissions in 2003. This study was developed in order to obtain tools to base options and actions to be undertaken by local authorities such as energy planning and also public information.     

Assessment of the greenhouse effect impact of technologies used for energy recovery from municipal waste: A case for England

Waste management activities contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions approximately by 4%. In particular the disposal of waste in landfills generates methane that has high global warming potential. Effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is important and could provide environmental benefits and sustainable development, as well as reduce adverse impacts on public health. The European and UK waste policy force sustainable waste management and especially diversion from landfill, through reduction, reuse, recycling and composting, and recovery of value from waste. Energy from waste is a waste management option that could provide diversion from landfill and at the same time save a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions, since it recovers energy from waste which usually replaces an equivalent amount of energy generated from fossil fuels. Energy from waste is a wide definition and includes technologies such as incineration of waste with energy recovery, or combustion of waste-derived fuels for energy production or advanced thermal treatment of waste with technologies such as gasification and pyrolysis, with energy recovery. The present study assessed the greenhouse gas emission impacts of three technologies that could be used for the treatment of Municipal Solid Waste in order to recover energy from it. These technologies are Mass Burn Incineration with energy recovery, Mechanical Biological Treatment via bio-drying and Mechanical Heat Treatment, which is a relatively new and uninvestigated method, compared to the other two. Mechanical Biological Treatment and Mechanical Heat Treatment can turn Municipal Solid Waste into Solid Recovered Fuel that could be combusted for energy production or replace other fuels in various industrial processes. The analysis showed that performance of these two technologies depends strongly on the final use of the produced fuel and they could produce GHG emissions savings only when there is end market for the fuel. On the other hand Mass Burn Incineration generates greenhouse gas emission savings when it recovers electricity and heat. Moreover the study found that the expected increase on the amount of Municipal Solid Waste treated for energy recovery in England by 2020 could save greenhouse gas emission, if certain Energy from Waste technologies would be applied, under certain conditions.     

Sustainability appraisal of used vehicle trade policy options in sub-Saharan African countries

This paper examines the structure of contemporary vehicle mitigation commitments after lead gasoline phase out in sub-Sahara Africa. First, this paper reviews some of the leading domestic trade policy proposals (emission reduction actions) with regard to their expected technology impacts. Next, it assesses the options based on establishing benchmarks for measuring policy performance in curbing vehicle emissions simultaneously with core sustainable development priorities. Assessing these options identifies the key variables in designing mitigation commitments, offers criteria for evaluating different approaches and discusses the implications of the leading alternatives. This paper argues that a more pronounced dilemma of synergies exists between vehicle emissions reduction and core development concerns as the major players target emissions too narrowly. Finally, this paper sheds more light on strategies that could be employed simultaneously at the regional and domestic levels to enhance sustainable development as trade continues to grow and evolve.     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

General equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option under the Clean Development Mechanism

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries' participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option-the substitution of thermal power with hydropower--in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would, however, adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare, GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units.     

Approaches for analyzing local carbon mitigation strategies: Tompkins County,New York,USA

A carbon budget was calculated for Tompkins County, NY, a semi-rural upstate county with a population density of 78 pp/km². The costs and potential for several carbon mitigation options were analyzed in four categories: terrestrial C sequestration, local power generation, transportation, and energy end-use efficiency. This study outlines a methodology for conducting this type of local-scale analysis, including sources and calculations adaptable to different localities. Effective carbon mitigation strategies for this county based on costs/Mg C and maximum potential include reforestation of abandoned agricultural lands, biomass production for residential heating and co-firing in coal power plants, changes in personal behavior related to transportation (e.g., public transportation), installation of residential energy efficient products such as programmable thermostats or compact fluorescent light bulbs, and development of local wind power. The total county emissions are about 340 Gg C/year, with biomass sequestration rates of 121 Gg C/year. The potential for mitigation, assuming full market penetration, amounts to about 234 Gg C/year (69%), with 100 Gg C/year (29%) at no net cost to the consumer. The development of local-scale C mitigation plans based on this sort of model of analysis is feasible and would be useful for guiding investments in climate change prevention.     

Changing places, changing emissions: The cross-scale reliability of greenhouse gas emission inventories in the US

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories, which currently inform abatement policy discussions, are developed mostly from national scale data. Nevertheless, although the policy debate tends to take place in global and national arenas, action to abate GHG emissions is inherently within the provenance of local institutions and communities. The purpose of this paper is to examine how much information is lost by not estimating GHG emissions data at scales finer than the whole US. Such information may be critical in bridging global and local policy. Differences in the composition of GHG emission sources based on GHG emission inventories at three nested spatial scales (national, state, local) for four study sites (in Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania) are analysed, drawing upon initial results of a large collaborative study known as the 'Association of American Geographers-Global Change in Local Places (GCLP)' project. The concept of spatial sovereignty of emissions is developed to test the cross-scale reliability of emission inventories. For the test year 1990, close agreement is found in the by-gas composition of GHG emissions among national, state and local inventories. Spatial sovereignty in this case is maintained. However close agreement is not found in the by-source composition of GHG emissions among national, state and local inventories. Spatial sovereignty in this case is not maintained. Regular compilation of state and local emissions source inventories may be necessary to track important spatial and temporal deviations from national trends.