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1.
Nutrient chemistry of River Pinios (Thessalia, Greece)   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
The impact of human activities with 3-year monitoring on the fluctuation of nutrients along the Pinios River and its tributaries were studied. Their seasonal variations throughout the years 1996-1998 were also presented. High temperatures, from June to August, cause a restriction of the water flow, an enhancement of nutrient concentration with the subsequent increase of eutrophication. High concentrations of nutrients were observed first in winter (wet period), caused by leaching of fertilizers from terrestrial systems after heavy rainfall, later during the warm months due to low water flow of the river, and at last in autumn when plant organisms began to decompose. The intensive algal and macrophyte growth (spring, summer) resulted in severe depletion of nutrients. Organic carbon showed no seasonal trend but its values were high near the estuaries. Nitrate fluxes were high at the initial station (sources) and the Titarisios tributary, whereas nitrites and ammonium were low. In contrary, the Kalentzis tributary with relatively low nitrate values showed increased values of nitrite ammonium or total nitrogen. On the other hand, the Enipeas tributary showed high SO4 values. Phosphates are remarkably present mainly after the city of Larissa, where sewage and industrial discharges occur. None of the nutrients measured in the Pinios River and its tributaries showed a clear seasonal cycle of concentration. Concentrations of nutrients and organic carbon increased as a consequence of anthropogenic inputs, particularly point discharges from sewage treatment plants (i.e. showing distinct, but variable, concentration peaks), as well as diffuse urban and/or agricultural runoff over long areas during storm events. The agricultural management, the urban pollution, mainly from Larissa City, and the climate conditions in the catchment basin (Thessalia Plain) of Pinios River and its tributaries greatly affect the chemical composition of their waters.  相似文献   

2.
The dissolved and particulate trace metals in large and middle-sized Chinese rivers remain comparable with other less-disturbed world systems. Levels of nutrients in Chinese rivers are high due to erosion over the drainage area and the application of chemical fertilizers, which induces an N/P ratio up to 100–1,000. The concentrations of organic pollutants in Chinese rivers are ranked at the lower end of those of world systems; however, pollution has been identified in coastal waters from north to south of the country. In estuarine and coastal waters, dissolved trace metals illustrate a feature of remobilization, while non-conservative distribution is observed, with exceptions for iron and aluminum. Particulate trace metals demonstrate a fairly stable distribution along the salinity gradient, when the absolute concentration is normalized to reference materials. In high-turbidity estuaries, seaward nutrient flux can be increased by a factor of 5–10. Finally, the N/P ratio approaches 10–20 at the interior of the East China Sea, indicating that in coastal regions photosynthesis changes from P to N and Si limitations. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

3.
为了研究九龙江流域河流中溶解碳变化规律,分别于2017年7月与2018年1月对九龙江河水溶解无机碳(DIC)与溶解有机碳(DOC)进行了分析。丰水季河水DIC浓度为7.50~49.04 mg/L,平均值为22.12 mg/L,枯水季DIC浓度为8.84~84.91 mg/L,平均浓度41.17 mg/L,丰水季河水中的DOC浓度为0.54~2.89 mg/L,平均值为1.04 mg/L,枯水季河水中DOC浓度变化在1.34~3.56 mg/L之间,平均值为2.34 mg/L,据此计算了九龙江河水DOC、DIC的入海通量。研究结果表明九龙江河水中溶解碳具有显著的时空变化特征,通过与中国其他河流溶解碳数据对比,解释了碳酸盐岩的风化、气候变化、河流中浮游植物以及人类活动对九龙江河流溶解碳浓度的影响。  相似文献   

4.
With the worldwide intensification of agriculture, non-point source pollution of surface waters has become a pressing issue. Conventional river water quality models consider non-point sources as accumulated entries into the rivers and do not investigate into the processes generating the pollution at its source, thus preventing the determination of effective mitigation measures. The models require extensive data inputs, which is a deficiency in many developing and emerging countries with limited data availability. The current study applies a Material Flow Model as a complementary approach to quantify non-point source pollution from agricultural areas. Rice farming in the Thachin River Basin is presented as a case study, with a focus on nutrients. The total nitrogen and phosphorus flows from rice farming to the river system are quantified, the key parameters influencing these flows are determined and potential mitigation measures are discussed. The results show that rice contributes considerable nutrient loads to the Thachin River Basin. Scenario simulations demonstrate that a significant nutrient load reduction could be achieved by following the official recommendations for fertilizer application, thus confirming the local efforts to introduce best management practice. Our results underline the importance of non-point source pollution control in intensive agricultural areas, particularly of tropical lowland delta areas such as the Central Plains of Thailand. The specific benefit of applying a Material Flow Model in this context is that with limited data availability, one can reach an understanding of the system and gain a first overview over its key pollution problems. This can serve as supportive basis for determining consecutive in-depth research requirements.  相似文献   

5.
本文统计分析了历史时期黄河决溢的变化。并从自然和人为因素两方面探讨其原因和规律。认为在湿润的气候时期黄河决溢频率增高,其原因是本地区高强度的暴雨造成了黄土高原严重的水土流失,从而使黄河中下游大量的泥沙沉积。人类特别是小冰期以来加强了对黄土高原的开发,破坏了原先的植被,从而造成了严重的水土流失,这是小冰期以来黄河决溢次数远远高于其它时期的主要原因。作者还认为在下世纪高温环境到来之际,黄河决溢的危险性大大增加。  相似文献   

6.
This paper presents a holistic strategy on the interaction of activities in the Elbe river basin and their effects on eutrophication in the coastal waters of the German Bight. This catchment–coastal zone interaction is the main target of the EUROCAT (EUROpean CATchments, catchment changes and their impact on the coast) research project, with the Elbe being one of eight case studies. The definition of socio-economic scenarios is linked with the application of models to evaluate measures in the catchment by estimation of nutrient emissions with MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems), and their effects on coastal waters with the ecosystem model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model). The cost effectiveness of reduction measures will then be evaluated by application of the CENER model (Cost-Effective Nutrient Emission Reduction) and a multi-criteria analysis. Finally, the interpretation of ecological integrity is used as a measure to describe ecological impacts in an aggregated form.  相似文献   

7.
Sediment contamination remains a global problem, particularly in transitional waters such as estuaries and coastal lagoons, which are the recipients of chemicals from multiple near- and far-field sources. Although transitional waters are highly productive ecosystems, approaches for assessing and managing their sediment contamination are not as well developed as in marine and fresh waters. Further, although transitional waters remain defined by their variable and unique natural water quality characteristics, particularly salinity, the biota inhabiting such ecosystems, once thought to be defined by Remane's “paradox of brackish water”, are being redefined. The purpose of the present paper is to build on an earlier but now dated (> 12 years old) review of methods to assess sediment contamination in estuaries, extending this to all transitional waters, including information on integrative assessments and on management decision-making. The following are specifically discussed: chemical assessments; bioindicators; biomarkers; and, biological surveys. Assessment and management of sediment contamination in transitional waters need to be focused on ecosystem services and, where appropriate and possible, be proactive rather than reactive when uncertainty has been suitably reduced.  相似文献   

8.
In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.  相似文献   

9.
基于MODIS的长江中游河段悬浮泥沙浓度反演   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
监测和预报悬浮泥沙浓度的沿程分布和时间变化,无论是对于河流水利工程还是河流生态和环境保护都具有重要意义。卫星遥感反演同步性好、速度快、周期短,可以实时和全面地观测大尺度悬浮泥沙分布。旨在建立基于中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)影像的长江中游河段悬浮泥沙浓度反演模型, 并利用建立的模型反演2002~2009 年长江中游河段丰水期的悬浮泥沙浓度, 分析其在时间和空间上的变化特征。研究揭示,MODIS Terra 影像红波段与悬浮泥沙浓度具有显著的相关性(R2=0877,n=125,RMSE=4057 mg/L),可以用于长江中游丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度的反演。长江三峡工程经历三次蓄水,坝下游宜昌至汉口段悬浮泥沙含量显著减少,荆江河段、洞庭湖及城陵矶至武汉江段下降最为显著。洞庭湖来水来沙是长江中游城陵矶以下江段主要的悬浮泥沙来源之一,从预测结果可知,洞庭湖来水在城陵矶汇入长江后与江水混合以至形成数十公里的混合带,至洪湖以下江段逐渐混合均匀  相似文献   

10.
Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.  相似文献   

11.
This study provides a first estimation on the sources, distribution and risk of organic micropollutants (OMPs) in coastal waters from NW Mediterranean Sea. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorinated pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, phthalates and alkylphenols were analyzed by solid phase extraction and gas chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (SPE–GC–EI-MS/MS). River waters and wastewater treatment plant effluents discharging to the sea were identified as the main sources of OMPs to coastal waters, with an estimated input amount of around of 25,800 g d 1. The concentration of ΣOMPs in coastal areas ranged from 17.4 to 8442 ng L 1, and was the highest in port waters, followed by coastal and river mouth seawaters. A summarized overview of the patterns and sources of OMP contamination on the investigated coastal sea waters of NW Mediterranean Sea, as well as of their geographical distribution was obtained by Principal Component Analysis of the complete data set after its adequate pretreatment. Alkylphenols, bisphenol A and phthalates were the main contributors to ΣOMPs and produced an estimated significant pollution risk for fish, algae and the sensitive mysid shrimp organisms in seawater samples. The combination of GC-MS/MS, chemometrics and risk analysis is proven to be useful for a better control and management of OMP discharges.  相似文献   

12.
将中国30个省市分为八大区域,基于2007~2017年省际物流业面板数据,构建考虑非期望产出的三阶段Super-SBM模型和Malmquist指数模型,对物流业绿色全要素生产率进行测算,并运用ESDA和空间收敛模型进行时空差异和空间收敛分析。研究结果表明:(1)剔除了管理无效率和外部环境因素的制约后,全国GTFP均值下降至0.985,南部沿海、北部沿海、西北、东部沿海区域的GTFP值上升,长江中游、东北、西南、黄河中游区域的GTFP值下降;(2)在时间差异上GTFP指数分三个时段,2007~2012年,GTFP指数大于1,2012~2014年,GTFP指数小于1,2014~2017年,GTFP指数大于1,总体呈上升-下降-上升的趋势;(3)全国各省市间物流业GTFP全局空间相关性逐渐增强,东北、北部沿海、黄河中游、长江中游、西南区域体现出了正相关拉动作用,北京、天津、山东始终是高绿色全要素生产率的核心带动地区。全国物流业发展不平衡,各地区间发展差异大,两极分化现象严重;(4)我国物流业GTFP水平呈现"M型"波动变化,最后逐渐趋于收敛态势。八大区域可分为两类,北部沿海、东部沿海、南部沿海、长江中游区域趋于收敛态势;黄河中游、东北、西南、西北区域趋于发散态势。  相似文献   

13.
River fisheries are extremely important for food-security among the rural poor in many tropical countries. The growing populations and rapid industrialisation of these countries require that appropriate action should be taken to sustain the resources for future generations. However, an incomplete understanding of river fisheries biology, at the managerial level, often hampers proper planning and management. This is partly due to the difficult access to large parts of such river basins, the complex nature of the fisheries, and in many cases a severe lack of research funds. In contrast, the thousands, or often millions of people who live along the shores of the rivers and rely on the fishery for their daily survival, have a very intimate knowledge of the behaviour and biology of the fish. In this situation, gathering the knowledge of the fishers may provide politicians or planners with baseline knowledge in a relatively quick and cheap way.This paper discusses two years of research using local knowledge in the study of fish migration and spawning in the Lower Mekong Basin. The study involves semi-structured interviews with 355 expert fishermen in four countries along 2,400 km of the Mekong mainstream. By piecing together information from fishermen in different areas, we were able to construct migration maps, and provide rough estimates of the spawning period for 50 fish species. We conclude that river fisheries research can benefit significantly from local knowledge as the basis for future research.  相似文献   

14.
River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).  相似文献   

15.
从长江水域现状出发,提出一套能全面反映健康长江内涵的水域生态健康状况评价指标体系,为长江流域水资源保护与开发提供依据。明确了健康长江的内涵,定义了健康要素,初步提出健康长江水域生态指标体系,建立评价模型,对每个指标分别赋予权重,并确立健康状况评价标准。利用该指标体系以武汉江段为例进行案例研究,得出长江武汉江段的健康状况为亚健康。河流水质状况、河床和河岸稳定性及水文状况较好,但对水生生物尤其是珍稀水生生物的保护和对河岸带的管理工作要加强。  相似文献   

16.
鄱阳湖流域水化学环境参数的变化特征   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
分别于2010年2月和7月,对鄱阳湖湖区和入湖河流的pH、TDS以及主要离子浓度进行了测定,分析了主要离子组成的时空变化特征及其影响机制。结果表明,鄱阳湖流域水体属于弱矿化度软水,Ca2+是湖水和河水的主要阳离子,分别占阳离子总数〖JP〗的5935%、4989%;HCO-3是湖水和河水的主要阴离子,分别占阴离子总数的5337%、5937%,水质类型为Ca-HCO-3型水;主要离子组成和TDS浓度具有明显的季节和沿程变化特征,这与降雨季节性变化以及不同水系的地质背景有关;从河流水系上游至湖区的水化学特征依次为HCO-3型、HCO-3-SO2-4和SO2-4型。从水化学控制机制上看,鄱阳湖丰水期受大气降水作用和地质条件影响显著,而枯水期降雨量大大减少,主要受岩石风化、蒸发沉淀作用和人为输入的影响。除此之外,SO2-4型水的增加与长江干流酸化以及丰水期长江顶托倒灌现象有密切关系  相似文献   

17.
Wet deposition of nitrogen, as NH(4)(+), NO(3)(-), and organic N, contributes up to 50% of the total externally supplied or 'new' N flux to the Neuse River Estuary (North Carolina). Excessive nitrogen (N) loading to N-sensitive waters such as the Neuse River Estuary has been linked to changes in microbial and algal community composition and function (harmful algal blooms), hypoxia/anoxia, and fish kills. In a 4-year study from July 1996 to July 2000, the weekly wet deposition of NH(4)(+), NO(3)(-), and dissolved organic N was calculated, based on concentration and precipitation measurements, at 11 sites on a northwest-southeast transect in the watershed. Data from this period indicate that the annual mean total wet atmospherically deposited (AD)-N flux was 11 kg ha(-1) year(-1). Deposition was fairly evenly distributed between nitrate, ammonium, and organics (32%, 32%, and 36%, respectively). Seasonally, the summer (June-August) months contained the highest weekly wet total N deposition; this trend was not driven by precipitation amount. Estimates of watershed N retention and in-stream riverine processing revealed that the AD-N flux contributed an estimated 20% (range of 15-51%) of the total 'new' N flux to the estuary, with direct deposition of N to the estuary surface accounting for 6% of the total 'new' N flux. This study did not measure the dry depositional flux, which may double the contribution of AD-N to the estuary. The AD-N is an important source of 'new' N to the Neuse River Estuary as well as other estuarine and coastal ecosystems downwind of major emission sources. As such, AD-N should be included in effective nutrient mitigation and management efforts for these N-sensitive waters.  相似文献   

18.
莱茵河流域综合管理和生态修复模式及其启示   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
莱茵河是欧洲的重要航道及沿岸国家的供水水源地,对欧洲的社会、政治、经济发展都起着重要作用。19世纪下半叶,莱茵河及其沿岸地区的开发利用造成了严重的环境与生态问题。以保护莱茵河国际委员会为代表,沿岸各国建立协作机制,整治污染,进行生态环境的综合治理。经过数十年的治理过程,如今的莱茵河生机盎然、重现美丽。通过综合介绍莱茵河流域曾经经过的污染、治理、生态恢复过程,针对我国的生态文明建设和长江大保护行动,提出借鉴莱茵河治理模式与发展经验:(1)打造跨部门跨地区的合作平台,建立“长江保护委员会”;(2)加强流域整合管理,明确流域治理目标,制定“长江保护行动计划”;(3)建立生态补偿机制协调流域内各方利益;(4)积极鼓励政府、民众和企业参与,形成保护长江的共识与合力;(5)从源头治理污染,提升水质;(6)建立完整的全流域监测方案;(7)完善生态修复模式,以期对我国长江流域的生态保护与综合管理提供参考。 关键词: 莱茵河;流域管理;生态治理;经验启示  相似文献   

19.
The surface of the earth has been continuously sculptured by the exogenetic processes primarily by the climatic hydrological attributes. Over the sequential phases of evolution of earth, the climatic attributes have altered. The alternative processes such as glaciation and declaciation, fluctuations of sea level and variability in rainfall pattern have changed the surface configuration through maneuvering the operations of the geographical processes. The issue of climate change has become a matter of scientific concern all over the world as the human communities are facing severe problems manifested in the form of flood, drought and submergence of low-lying coastal regions, estuaries and deltas. The present study is an attempt to understand the nature and extent of climate change (1890–2012) and related sea level rise (1970s–2010) in the deltaic Sundarban region of India since the last century and how far they are impacting the erosion–depositional processes (1925, 1926–2014). The changing trend of mean annual temperature, rainfall pattern and frequencies of tropical cyclones has been studied in detail, and spatiotemporal changes of geomorphic environment in different reaches of the study area have also been monitored with available multi-temporal geospatial data. The observation reveals that the flat sandy coastal belt and low-lying island in the extreme southern part have been severely affected by wave dash and seasonal storm surges which are mostly responsible for vigorous erosion. On the other hand, high tidal velocity is observed along the exposed concave bank in the upper–middle reaches of the Muriganga estuary and exposed outer bank in lower–middle reaches of Saptamukhi estuary. The thalweg line, which is very close to the river bank in those reaches of estuary, intensifies the hydraulic pressure along marginal parts of river bank which leads to erosion. Depositional activities are mostly observed along the sheltered inner reaches and convex river banks of the estuaries due to less effective tidal rushes, shallow channel depth, marginal flow velocity and gentle channel slope. Therefore, erosional and depositional processes cannot be explain by the relative mean sea level rise, because increasing mean sea level will affect the erosional processes uniformly in the entire estuary. In this present study area, both the erosional and depositional processes are simultaneously active depending on geographical exposure, sinuous channel pattern, channel depth and lithological compositions.  相似文献   

20.
The European Water Framework Directive requires EU Member States to introduce water quality objectives for all water bodies, including coastal waters. Measures will have to be introduced if these objectives are not met, given predictions based on current trends. In this context, the estimation of future fluxes of nutrients and contaminants in the catchment, and the evaluation of policies to improve water quality in coastal zones are an essential part of river basin management plans. This paper investigates the use of scenarios for integrated catchment/coastal zone management in the Humber Estuary in the U.K. The context of this ongoing research is a European research project which aims to assist the implementation of integrated catchment and coastal zone management by analysing the response of the coastal sea to changes in fluxes of nutrients and contaminants from the catchments. The example of the Humber illustrates how scenarios focusing on water quality improvement can provide a useful tool to investigate future fluxes and evaluate policy options for a more integrated coastal/catchment management strategy.  相似文献   

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