Conservation priorities for mammals in megadiverse Mexico: the efficiency of reserve networks.

A major goal of conservation biologists is to identify critical areas for the conservation of biological diversity and then strategically include them in an efficient system of reserves. In general, however, reserve networks have been selected for different objectives, and most countries lack an evaluation of their reserves' ability to represent a percentage of the national diversity. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a network of reserves to represent the species of mammals in Mexico. The focus of the analyses is on species and site level, evaluating the representation of all terrestrial mammals in the 30 most important reserves. The representation of all species, endemic species, endangered species, and species with restricted distributions in the reserves was assessed and compared. Endemic or endangered species with restricted distributions were expected to be less represented in reserves than were widespread species. The most important reserves for the conservation of mammals were determined with the use of complementarity analyses. Priority sites for the representation of all the species currently absent from the reserve network were then selected. The results have broad applications for conservation. First, 82% of the mammal species from Mexico were represented in the reserve network, which covers a small portion (3.8%) of the country. Second, this percentage is certainly larger as several reserves were not evaluated due to a lack of data. A priority for a national conservation strategy could be to conduct biological surveys in those reserves lacking inventories to evaluate their contribution to conservation. Third, in spite of its demonstrated value, Mexico's reserve network can be improved by designating complementary areas. Additional priority sites, where reserves are required to represent most gap species in the network, were identified. Finally, it is clear that this reserve network has limitations for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services at regional scales. A comprehensive conservation strategy has, therefore, to incorporate mechanisms that enhance the value of human-dominated landscapes for the maintenance of biodiversity.     

Mammal Diversity and Conservation in the Selva Lacandona, Chiapas, Mexico

The Selva Lacandona region of Chiapas, Mexico, has high biodiversity, represents the last large portion of tropical rainforest in México, and faces imminent destruction. Through fieldwork and literature searches I found a total of 112 mammal species (including 17 Middle-American endemics) on the Lacandona's 331,200 ha Montes Azules Biosphere Reserve. This inventory plus those from eight additional Neotropical localities show local mammal species richness in the Neotropics to be in the range of 70–116 species. Richness is primarily correlated with the amount of annual rainfall, but within rainforest areas species richness is probably not correlated with rainfall, latitude, altitude, or area size. Rather, above a certain limit of rainfall and below a critical level of latitude and altitude, mammal species richness seem to reach an asymptotic maximum. Areas covered with tropical rainforest and with a well-known, relatively intact fauna have about 112–116 mammal species. In the Montes Azules Reserve most mammals (57%) are bats. The most heavily occupied feeding guilds are frugivores/herbivores and insectivores/omnivores. Large species and carnivores appear most vulnerable to local extinction. Montes Azules (and thus the Selva Lacandona) is especially noteworthy because (1) it contains a greater proportion of species facing conservation problems than expected from a random draw of Mexican mammals; (2) it is probably the most diverse ecosystem in Mexico; (3) many species sustain their only Mexican populations in this area; and (4) it is the largest remnant of tropical rainforest in Mexico and is part of the largest expanse of that vegetation type in Central America.     

Global Patterns of Mammalian Diversity, Endemism, and Endangerment

To assess the conservation status of the world's land mammals, we compiled data on the number of total species, endemic species, recently extinct species, and currently endangered species for 155 countries. Total species richness was significantly correlated with territorial land area, whereas number of endemic species was only weakly correlated with both area and total number of species. The large amount of variation left unexplained by species-area regressions reflects the influence of other factors, such as latitude, topographic and habitat heterogeneity, and historical biogeography, on species richness and especially on patterns of endemism. Countries of particular conservation concern, because they have rich mammalian faunas containing many endemic species, are the large islands of Australia, Madagascar, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as continental Mexico. Patterns of recent extinctions and the current endangered status of species were difficult to interpret, largely because of inadequate and inconsistent data. The majority of officially listed endangered species are large, well known, and popular mammals, such as primates, ungulates, and carnivores, whereas the majority of species known to have gone recently extinct and likely to be currently threatened are small and inconspicuous, such as rodents and bats. Our work not only illustrates the role of ecological, evolutionary, and biogeographic processes in the origin and maintenance of land mammal diversity, it also presents the information at the level of biogeographic regions and political units where management and policy must be applied in order to slow the loss of this diversity.     

Biodiversity Conservation in Traditional Coffee Systems of Mexico

In Mexico, coffee is cultivated on the coastal slopes of the central and southern parts of the country in areas where two or more types of vegetation make contact. Based on management level and vegetational and structural complexity, it is possible to distinguish five main coffee production systems in Mexico: two kinds of traditional shaded agroforests (with native trees), one commercially oriented polyspecific shaded system, and two "modern" systems (shaded and unshaded monocultures). Traditional shaded coffee is cultivated principally by small-scale, community-based growers, most of whom belong to some indigenous culture group. Through an exhaustive review of the literature, we found that traditional shaded coffee plantations are important repositories of biological richness for groups such as trees and epiphytes, mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and arthropods. We evaluated the conservation role of these traditional shaded systems by estimating the percentage of the whole coffee area under traditional management, by reviewing the ecological and geographical distribution of coffee areas in Mexico, and by connecting the geographical distribution of these coffee areas with recognized centers of species richness and endemism. The assesment revealed that in Mexico, coffee fields are located in a biogeographically and ecologically strategic elevational belt that is an area of overlap between the tropical and temperate elements and of contact among the four main types of Mexican forests. We also found that between 60% and 70% of these coffee areas are under traditional management and that at least 14 of 155 priority regions selected by experts as having high numbers of species and endemics overlap with or are near traditional coffee-growing areas.     

Ecological‐Niche Modeling and Prioritization of Conservation‐Area Networks for Mexican Herpetofauna

Abstract: One of the most important tools in conservation biology is information on the geographic distribution of species and the variables determining those patterns. We used maximum‐entropy niche modeling to run distribution models for 222 amphibian and 371 reptile species (49% endemics and 27% threatened) for which we had 34,619 single geographic records. The planning region is in southeastern Mexico, is 20% of the country's area, includes 80% of the country's herpetofauna, and lacks an adequate protected‐area system. We used probabilistic data to build distribution models of herpetofauna for use in prioritizing conservation areas for three target groups (all species and threatened and endemic species). The accuracy of species‐distribution models was better for endemic and threatened species than it was for all species. Forty‐seven percent of the region has been deforested and additional conservation areas with 13.7% to 88.6% more native vegetation (76% to 96% of the areas are outside the current protected‐area system) are needed. There was overlap in 26 of the main selected areas in the conservation‐area network prioritized to preserve the target groups, and for all three target groups the proportion of vegetation types needed for their conservation was constant: 30% pine and oak forests, 22% tropical evergreen forest, 17% low deciduous forest, and 8% montane cloud forests. The fact that different groups of species require the same proportion of habitat types suggests that the pine and oak forests support the highest proportion of endemic and threatened species and should therefore be given priority over other types of vegetation for inclusion in the protected areas of southeastern Mexico.     

Alternate Species Concepts as Bases for Determining Priority Conservation Areas

Abstract: Analysis of geographic concentrations of endemic taxa is often used to determine priorities for conservation action; nevertheless, assumptions inherent in the taxonomic authority list used as the basis for analysis are not always considered. We analyzed foci of avian endemism in Mexico under two alternate species concepts. Under the biological species concept, 101 bird species are endemic to Mexico and are concentrated in the mountains of the western and southern portions of the country. Under the phylogenetic species concept, however, total endemic species rises to 249, which are concentrated in the mountains and lowlands of western Mexico. Twenty-four narrow endemic biological species are concentrated on offshore islands, but 97 narrow endemic phylogenetic species show a concentration in the Transvolcanic Belt of the mainland and on several offshore islands. Our study demonstrates that conservation priorities based on concentrations of endemic taxa depend critically on the particular taxonomic authority employed and that biodiversity evaluations need to be developed in collaboration or consultation with practicing systematic specialists.     

Global gap analysis of cactus species and priority sites for their conservation

Knowing how much biodiversity is captured by protected areas (PAs) is important to meeting country commitments to international conservation agreements, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, and analyzing gaps in species coverage by PAs contributes greatly to improved locating of new PAs and conservation of species. Regardless of their importance, global gap analyses have been conducted only for a few taxonomic groups (e.g., mangroves, corals, amphibians, birds, mammals). We conducted the first global gap analysis for a complete specious plant group, the highly threatened Cactaceae. Using geographic distribution data of 1438 cactus species, we assessed how well the current PA network represents them. We also systematically identified priority areas for conservation of cactus species that met and failed to meet conservation targets accounting for their conservation status. There were 261 species with no coverage by PAs (gap species). A greater percentage of cacti species (18%) lacked protection than mammals (9.7%) and birds (5.6%), and also a greater percentage of threatened cacti species (32%) were outside protected areas than amphibians (26.5%), birds (19.9%), or mammals (16%). The top 17% of the landscape that best captured covered species represented on average 52.9% of species ranges. The priority areas for gap species and the unprotected portion of the ranges of species that only partially met their conservation target (i.e., partial gap) captured on average 75.2% of their ranges, of which 100 were threatened gap species. These findings and knowledge of the threats affecting species provide information that can be used to improve planning for cacti conservation and highlight the importance of assessing the representation of major groups, such as plants, in PAs to determining the performance of the current PA network.     

Reserve networks based on richness hotspots and representation vary with scale.

While the importance of spatial scale in ecology is well established, few studies have investigated the impact of data grain on conservation planning outcomes. In this study, we compared species richness hotspot and representation networks developed at five grain sizes. We used species distribution maps for mammals and birds developed by the Arizona and New Mexico Gap Analysis Programs (GAP) to produce 1-km2, 100-kmn2, 625-km2, 2500-km2, and 10,000-km2 grid cell resolution distribution maps. We used these distribution maps to generate species richness and hotspot (95th quantile) maps for each taxon in each state. Species composition information at each grain size was used to develop two types of representation networks using the reserve selection software MARXAN. Reserve selection analyses were restricted to Arizona birds due to considerable computation requirements. We used MARXAN to create best reserve networks based on the minimum area required to represent each species at least once and equal area networks based on irreplaceability values. We also measured the median area of each species' distribution included in hotspot (mammals and birds of Arizona and New Mexico) and irreplaceability (Arizona birds) networks across all species. Mean area overlap between richness hotspot reserves identified at the five grain sizes was 29% (grand mean for four within-taxon/state comparisons), mean overlap for irreplaceability reserve networks was 32%, and mean overlap for best reserve networks was 53%. Hotspots for mammals and birds showed low overlap with a mean of 30%. Comparison of hotspots and irreplaceability networks showed very low overlap with a mean of 13%. For hotspots, median species distribution area protected within reserves declined monotonically from a high of 11% for 1-km2 networks down to 6% for 10,000-km2 networks. Irreplaceability networks showed a similar, but more variable, pattern of decline. This work clearly shows that map resolution has a profound effect on conservation planning outcomes and that hotspot and representation outcomes may be strikingly dissimilar. Thus, conservation planning is scale dependent, such that reserves developed using coarse-grained data do not subsume fine-grained reserves. Moreover, preserving both full species representation and species rich areas may require combined reserve design strategies.     

China's endemic vertebrates sheltering under the protective umbrella of the giant panda

The giant panda attracts disproportionate conservation resources. How well does this emphasis protect other endemic species? Detailed data on geographical ranges are not available for plants or invertebrates, so we restrict our analyses to 3 vertebrate taxa: birds, mammals, and amphibians. There are gaps in their protection, and we recommend practical actions to fill them. We identified patterns of species richness, then identified which species are endemic to China, and then which, like the panda, live in forests. After refining each species' range by its known elevational range and remaining forest habitats as determined from remote sensing, we identified the top 5% richest areas as the centers of endemism. Southern mountains, especially the eastern Hengduan Mountains, were centers for all 3 taxa. Over 96% of the panda habitat overlapped the endemic centers. Thus, investing in almost any panda habitat will benefit many other endemics. Existing panda national nature reserves cover all but one of the endemic species that overlap with the panda's distribution. Of particular interest are 14 mammal, 20 bird, and 82 amphibian species that are inadequately protected. Most of these species the International Union for Conservation of Nature currently deems threatened. But 7 mammal, 3 bird, and 20 amphibian species are currently nonthreatened, yet their geographical ranges are <20,000 km² after accounting for elevational restriction and remaining habitats. These species concentrate mainly in Sichuan, Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. There is a high concentration in the east Daxiang and Xiaoxiang Mountains of Sichuan, where pandas are absent and where there are no national nature reserves. The others concentrate in Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. Here, 10 prefectures might establish new protected areas or upgrade local nature reserves to national status.     

Effects of Artificial Roosts for Frugivorous Bats on Seed Dispersal in a Neotropical Forest Pasture Mosaic

Abstract:  In the Neotropics ongoing deforestation is producing open and heavily fragmented landscapes dominated by agriculture, mostly plantations and cattle pastures. After some time agriculture often becomes uneconomical and land is abandoned. Subsequent habitat regeneration may be slow because seed inputs are restricted by a lack of incentives—such as suitable roost sites—for seed dispersers to enter deforested areas. Increasing environmental awareness has fostered growing efforts to promote reforestation. Practical and cost-efficient methods for kick-starting forest regeneration are, however, lacking. We investigated whether artificial bat roosts for frugivorous bat species can attract these key seed dispersers to deforested areas, thereby increasing seed rain. We installed artificial bat roosts in a forest-pasture mosaic in the Costa Rican Atlantic lowlands and monitored bat colonization and seed dispersal. Colonization occurred within a few weeks of installation, and 10 species of bats occupied the artificial roosts. Five species of frugivorous or nectarivorous bats colonized artificial roosts permanently in both primary habitat and in deforested areas, in numbers similar to those found in natural roosts. Seed input around artificial roosts increased significantly. Sixty-nine different seed types, mostly of early-successional plant species, were transported by bats to artificial roosts in disturbed habitats. The installation of artificial bat roosts thus successfully attracted frugivorous bats and increased seed inputs into degraded sites. This method is likely to speed up early-vegetation succession, which in turn will attract additional seed dispersers, such as birds, and provide a microhabitat for seeds of mid- and late-successional plants. As well as supporting natural forest regeneration and bat conservation, this cost-efficient method can also increase environmental awareness among landowners.     

The Effectiveness of Iberian Protected Areas in Conserving Terrestrial Biodiversity

Abstract:  The Iberian Peninsula harbors about 50% of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species and more than 30% of European endemic species. Despite the global recognition of its importance, the selection of protected areas has been ad hoc and the effectiveness of such choices has rarely been assessed. We compiled the most comprehensive distributional data set of Iberian terrestrial plant and vertebrate species available to date and used it to assess the degree of species representation within existing protected areas. Existing protected areas in Spain and Portugal reasonably represented the plant and animal species we considered (73–98%). Nevertheless, species of some groups (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and gymnosperms) did not accumulate in protected areas at a rate higher than expected by chance ( p > 0.05). We determined that to conserve all vertebrate and plant species in the Iberian Peninsula, at least 36 additional areas are needed. Selection of additional areas for conservation would be facilitated if such areas coincided with sites of community importance (SCI) designated under the European Commission Habitats Directive. Additional areas required for full representation of the selected plant and animal species all coincide with SCI in Spain. Nevertheless, the degree of coincidence varies between 0.3% and 74.6%, and there is a possibility that important areas for conservation occur outside the SCI. Our results support the view that current SCI can be used for prioritization of areas for conservation, but a systematic reevaluation of conservation priorities in Spain and Portugal would be necessary to ensure that effective conservation of one of European's most important biodiversity regions is achieved.     

Use of Coarse‐Resolution Models of Species’ Distributions to Guide Local Conservation Inferences

Abstract: Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time‐consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse‐resolution distribution data are available to define high‐quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures.     

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau over 40 years

Over the past 40 years, the climate has been changing and human disturbance has increased in the vast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). These 2 factors are expected to affect the distribution of a large number of endemic vertebrate species. However, quantitative relationships between range shifts and climate change and human disturbance of these species in the QTP have rarely been evaluated. We used occurrence records of 19 terrestrial vertebrate species (birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles) occurring in the QTP from 1980 to 2020 to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution of these 4 taxonomic groups and estimated species range changes in each species. The trend in distribution changes differed among the taxonomic groups, although, generally, ranges shifted to central QTP. Climate change contributed more to range variation than human disturbance (the sum of the 4 climatic variables contributed more than the sum of the 4 human disturbance variables for all 4 taxonomic groups). Suitable geographic range increased for most mammals, amphibians, and reptiles (+27.6%, +18.4%, and +27.8% on average, respectively), whereas for birds range decreased on average by 0.9%. Quantitative evidence for climate change and human disturbance associations with range changes for endemic vertebrate species in the QTP can provide useful insights into biodiversity conservation under changing environments.     

Consensus on Criteria for Potential Areas for Wolf Reintroduction in Mexico

Abstract: Given the conflict with human interests that in many cases results in the extirpation of large carnivores, acceptance of their reintroduction is a considerable challenge. By the 1980s Mexican wolves (Canis lupus) were extinct in the wild. In 1998 a population was reintroduced in the Blue Range Mountains of New Mexico (U.S.A.). Efforts to reintroduce the species in Mexico have been ongoing since the late 1980s. Four teams working independently identified 6 areas in northern Mexico in the historic range of Mexican wolves, where reintroductions could potentially be successful. Each team used different methods and criteria to identify the areas, which makes it difficult to prioritize among these areas. Therefore, members of the different teams worked together to devise criteria for use in identifying priority areas. They identified areas with high, intermediate, and low potential levels of conflict between wolves and humans. Areas with low potential conflict had larger buffers (i.e., distance from human settlement to areas suitable for wolves) around human settlements than high‐ and intermediate‐conflict areas and thus were thought most appropriate for the first reintroduction. High‐conflict areas contained habitat associated with wolf presence, but were closer to human activity. The first reintroduction of Mexican wolves to Mexico occurred in October 2011 in one of the identified low‐conflict areas. The identification of suitable areas for reintroduction represents a crucial step in the process toward the restoration of large carnivores. Choice of the first reintroduction area can determine whether the reintroduction is successful or fails. A failure may preclude future reintroduction efforts in a region or country.     

Improving the Performance of Indicator Groups for the Identification of Important Areas for Species Conservation

Indicator groups may be important tools with which to guide the selection of networks of areas for conservation. Nevertheless, the literature provides little guidance as to what makes some groups of species more suitable than others to guide area selection. Using distributional data on all sub-Saharan birds and mammals, we assessed factors that influence the effectiveness of indicator groups. We assessed the influence of threatened, endemic, range-restricted, widespread, and large-bodied species by systematically varying their number in indicator groups. We also assessed the influence of taxonomic diversity by systematically varying the number of distinct genera and families within the indicator groups. We selected area networks based on the indicator groups and tested their ability to represent a set of species, which, in terms of species composition, is independent of the indicator group. Increasing the proportion of threatened, endemic, and range-restricted species in the indicator groups improved effectiveness of the selected area networks; in particular it improved the effectiveness in representing other threatened and range-restricted species. In contrast increasing the proportion of widespread and large-bodied species decreased effectiveness. Changes in the number of genera and families only marginally affected the performance of indicator groups. Our results reveal that a focus on species of special conservation concern, which are legitimate conservation targets in their own right, also improves the effectiveness of indicator groups, in particular in representing other species of conservation concern.     

Conservation Value of Multiple-Use Areas in East Africa

Abstract:  Despite wide agreement that strictly protected areas (World Conservation Union categories I–III) are the best strategy for conserving biodiversity, they are limited in extent and exclude many species of key conservation importance. In contrast, multiple-use management areas (categories IV–VI), comprising >60% of the world's protected-area network, are often considered of little value to biodiversity conservation, particularly in Africa, where they typically contain few charismatic large mammals. We sampled small mammals, amphibians, birds, butterflies, and trees at 41 sites along a four-step gradient of increasing human activity and decreasing conservation protection, from a well-protected Tanzanian national park to nonintensive agricultural land. Although preliminary, our results indicate that species richness of these five taxa did not decline along this gradient, but different management areas, occupying areas of largely similar habitat, hosted distinct communities of each taxon. Differences in species composition in the absence of manifest differences in species richness highlight the importance of developing landscape-scale conservation strategies and the danger of using either a limited suite of indicator taxa or umbrella species as surrogates for biodiversity. Although strictly protected areas perform a unique and vital conservation service in East Africa by protecting large mammals, areas that allow varied resource extraction activities still possess vital and complementary conservation value.     

The importance of protected areas for the forest and endemic avifauna of Sulawesi (Indonesia).

Protected areas are critical for the conservation of residual tropical forest biodiversity, yet many of these are being deforested by humans both within and outside of their administrative boundaries. Therefore, it is critical to document the significance of protected areas for conserving tropical biodiversity, particularly in mega-diverse Southeast Asia. We evaluated the importance of protected areas (national parks [NP], nature reserves [NR], and wildlife reserves [WR]) in preserving avifaunal diversity, particularly the endemic and forest species, on the island of Sulawesi. This island has one of the highest numbers of endemic avifauna genera (12) globally and is also experiencing heavy deforestation. Rarefaction analyses and species estimators showed that parks and reserves consistently recorded higher number of forest, endemic, and endemic forest bird species, in addition to larger population densities, than in their surrounding human-modified areas across eight protected areas (Gunung Manembo-nembo WR, Tangkoko-Batu Angus and Dua Saudara NR, Gunung Ambang NR, Bogani Nani Wartabone NP, Gunung Tinombala NR, Gunung Sojol NR, Lore Lindu NP, and Rawa Aopa Watumohai NP). This implies that protecting natural forests must remain as one of the fundamental conservation strategies in Sulawesi. Two small reserves (Gunung Manembo-nembo WR and Tangkoko-Batu Angus and Dua Saudara NR), however, had high number of forest and endemic bird species both within and outside their boundaries, suggesting the importance of buffer areas for augmenting small reserves so as to improve their conservation value. Ordination analyses revealed the differential response of bird species to different environmental factors (e.g., native tree cover), highlighting the significance of forested habitats with dense native vegetation cover for effective conservation of forest dependent and endemic avifauna. In addition, the distinctiveness in bird species composition among protected areas highlights the importance of establishing a reserve network across major altitudinal zones so as to achieve maximum complementarity for the conservation of Sulawesi's unique avifauna.     

Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.     

Species Inequality in Scientific Study

Abstract: Some conservationists argue for a focused effort to protect the most critically endangered species, and others suggest a large‐scale endeavor to safeguard common species across large areas. Similar arguments are applicable to the distribution of scientific effort among species. Should conservation scientists focus research efforts on threatened species, common species, or do all species deserve equal attention? We assessed the scientific equity among 1909 mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians of southern Africa by relating the number of papers written about each species to their status on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. Threatened large mammals and reptiles had more papers written about them than their nonthreatened counterparts, whereas threatened small mammals and amphibians received less attention than nonthreatened species. Threatened birds received an intermediate amount of attention in the scientific literature. Thus, threat status appears to drive scientific effort among some animal groups, whereas other factors (e.g., pest management and commercial interest) appear to dictate scientific investment in particular species of other groups. Furthermore, the scientific investment per species differed greatly between groups—the mean number of papers per threatened large mammal eclipsed that of threatened reptiles, birds, small mammals, and amphibians by 2.6‐, 15‐, 216‐, and more than 500‐fold, respectively. Thus, in the eyes of science, all species are not created equal. A few species commanded a great proportion of scientific attention, whereas for many species information that might inform conservation is virtually nonexistent.     

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st‐century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species’ extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best‐studied land‐cover type for use of remote‐sensing data. Using an open‐access 30‐m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest‐dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red‐list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data‐deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red‐list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data‐deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction‐risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.