新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构

粮食安全是保证任何人在任何时候都能得到为了生存和健康所需要的足够食物。新时期（2015-2050年）我国国内农业资源开发潜力已接近极限,中国粮食安全的总体思路正在面临重构。粮食安全在个人层面是营养安全,在国家层面是国家粮食的可获得能力,国家粮食可获得能力包括粮食生产能力和粮食进口能力,论文从个人营养安全和国家粮食可获得能力视角,对新时期我国粮食供需平衡进行分析,结果表明,在维持现有粮食生产能力的情况下,我国粮食安全保障程度为110.88%~117.49%,粮食具有保障平衡的基本能力,口粮安全保障程度为158.57%~168.02%,口粮具有保障充分平衡的能力,而饲料粮的保障程度只有79.41%~84.15%,保障程度不足。这一有所宽裕的粮食供需平衡态势为允许小幅度市场波动来实现粮食供需动态平衡提供了弹性空间,也为国家粮食政策调整提供了契机和条件。为建立我国新时期粮食安全保障体系,确保粮食供求基本平衡,建议：1）在资源端建立基本农田制度,维持粮食可持续生产能力;2）在生产端逐步发展经营规模较大的专业化粮食生产实体;3）在流通环节充分利用现代网络技术和电子商务模式,培育全国性和区域性现代粮食市场体系,融入国际市场,确保国家粮食安全的有效供应;4）在储备环节完善粮食储备体系,调整粮食储备的结构和规模。     

中国水稻收获环节的损失有多高?——基于5省6地的实验调查

受资源禀赋的约束,减少粮食产后损失日益成为增加粮食供给、保障粮食安全的重要措施之一。论文采取实地测量的方法,在全国5省6地开展田间实验和调查访谈,考察了水稻收获环节的损失情况。结果显示：各实验地块水稻收获环节的损失率为1.18%~6.55%。其中,水稻联合收获的损失率显著高于分段收获,先进机型收获的损失率低于普通机型,田地湿度、倒伏程度与水稻收获环节的损失率正相关。结合水稻优势区域的分布推算,全国水稻收获环节的损失率为3.02%。减损的情景模拟表明,当全国水稻收获环节的损失率下降到2.76%（根据农业部《水稻机械化生产技术指导意见》测算）,可节约稻谷54万t,可供439万人消费1 a,相当于节约耕地7.84万hm²,化肥2.61万t（折纯）。     

食物损失和浪费研究综述及展望

近年来食物损失和浪费及其资源环境问题越来越成为全球关注的焦点,而减少食物损失和浪费也成为保障食物安全的另一条重要途径.论文结合国内外大量文献资料,综述了目前食物损失和浪费研究进展.结果显示,食物损失和浪费研究在国际上仍没有形成统一的方法论基础,研究工作仍有待进一步加强.首先,食物损失和浪费研究在全球尺度从概念界定、研究环节到研究方法尚缺乏统一的标准,不同研究结果之间难以比较;其次,经济欠发达国家和地区以及处于经济快速转型国家研究相对不足,主要集中在20 世纪70-80 年代,尤其是针对产后环节的损失研究较少,有必要进一步加强以上国家和地区的案例研究;再次,加强消费行为研究,通过改变消费者的行为来减少食物浪费,从而为政策制定者提供有效的干预手段,也是亟待加强的重要方面.在此基础上,研究展望了未来加强食物损失和浪费研究的重要性,以期综合不同途径来减少食物损失和浪费.     

我国粮食自给水平目标设定：研究综述与政策启示

确保重要农产品特别是粮食供给,是实施乡村振兴战略的首要任务。粮食自给水平目标设定是粮食安全状况评价和政策制定的基础,直接影响到国家粮食产业发展的战略方向和实施路径。本文通过对已有关于我国粮食自给水平目标设定的文献进行研读,在总结粮食自给率相关概念和回顾国家粮食自给方针演变的基础上,着重对我国粮食自给率目标设定水平、依据、意义,以及自给率变动的原因和产生的影响等问题进行系统梳理。结果显示：现有研究对于我国粮食安全自给水平设定目标尚无明确且统一的判断。研究提出,现阶段应以资源环境承载力为硬约束,以保持粮食生产稳定性为红线,设定粮食总量自给水平目标替代自给率目标,通过充分利用国外资源和国际市场,更好地实现粮食安全保障与生态环境保护的高度统一。     

对外开放背景下中国粮食安全形势研判与战略选择

中美地缘政治竞争加剧,新冠肺炎疫情、极端天气气候等不确定性事件频发,依托两种资源两个市场的国家粮食安全策略面临新的挑战。结合统计数据与文献观点,分析了新时期中国粮食安全面临的主要问题,研究了农业开放保障粮食安全的主要效用,探索了扩大对外开放背景下我国粮食安全的保障思路。结果表明：（1）中国粮食安全取得了显著成就,但也存在粮食供应的经济与资源环境代价巨大、粮食稳定供应与获取的风险加大等问题,需要在开放条件下创新粮食安全实现路径。（2）农业对外开放可影响粮食供应、获取、利用与稳定性,当前对外开放促进了国家粮食供应,但尚未实现稳定的食物安全、有竞争力的食物安全。农业对外开放仍有广泛的互惠共赢基础,同时也面临更大的不确定性,考验我国粮食领域应对全球化“危”“机”的治理能力。（3）国家粮食安全治理对于保障粮食安全至关重要,建议采取凸显产能的粮食自给战略、全产业链的食物安全战略与高水平的农业对外开放战略,确保粮食安全落实落地。     

中国粮食主产区耕地撂荒程度及其对粮食产量的影响

耕地撂荒严重地影响着我国的粮食安全。以我国粮食主产区为研究区域,在识别撂荒地分布的基础上,测度了撂荒地空间分布格局,并建立耕地撂荒中介效应模型,探究了耕地撂荒对区域粮食产量的影响机制。结果表明：（1）中国粮食主产区耕地撂荒规模为405.53万hm²,撂荒率约为5.85%;空间上撂荒地规模分布呈“T”字形空间格局,黑龙江东北部、吉林西北部以及内蒙古南部地区为撂荒地主要集聚区。（2）耕地撂荒对于粮食主产区粮食产量具有显著负向影响,2017年我国粮食主产区因耕地撂荒损失的农田生产潜力达到1339.15万t,损失的粮食产量高达2265.6万t,损失比例达4.69%;内蒙古自治区成为粮食产出损失量和损失比例最大的地区。（3）粮食播种面积、农田生产潜力和农业技术投入均发挥了部分中介作用,系数分别为-0.194、-0.025和0.006。（4）应遵从城乡融合以及农业农村发展态势,强化粮食主产区农业生产现代要素投入与政策扶植,构建粮食生产—耕地休耕空间转换弹性机制,保障我国粮食安全。     

广西产粮大县土壤环境保护与防治对策

粮食安全是实现经济发展、社会稳定和国家安全的重要基础。粮食生长离不开土壤,而产粮大县是我国粮食生产的主力军,其土壤环境质量的好坏对于粮食生长具有重要意义。文章以广西产粮大县为例,通过剖析其土壤环境现状及面临的主要问题,提出了五方面防治对策,对保护产粮大县土壤环境质量、管控土壤环境风险、保障农产品质量安全具有积极的现实意义。     

传统农区粮食生产转型机制及其安全效应——基于乡村空间治理视角

转型期乡村空间利用问题成为影响粮食安全的重要因素,开展乡村空间综合治理成为推动粮食生产有序转型的重要动力。系统分析乡村空间治理导向的粮食生产转型机制及其安全效应,有益于完善粮食安全的理论和实践分析。本文以乡村空间治理导向的粮食生产转型内在机制分析为突破,结合平原农区典型案例进行实证研究,并探讨了乡村空间治理与粮食安全的内在关系。主要结论如下：（1）乡村空间的不合理利用是限制粮食生产高效运转的重要因素。（2）乡村空间“物质—权属—组织”治理,通过改变粮食生产所需的基础条件达到优化粮食生产的目的,推动粮食生产朝着规模化、高效化、绿色化和公正化转型。（3）香埠村空间治理显著改善了该村粮食生产条件,有效协调粮食安全保障与乡村转型发展的交互作用关系。（4）乡村空间治理能力现代化是提升粮食安全保障能力的重要手段和途径。传统农区开展乡村空间“物质—权属—组织”的综合治理,有利于保障转型期粮食安全,落实“藏粮于地”战略,具有现实意义。     

1953-2016年中国粮食补贴政策分析

粮食补贴政策是确保粮食增产、农民增收和国家粮食安全的重要举措。论文分3个阶段系统梳理和分析了1953-2016年期间实施的粮食补贴政策特点和演变趋势,分4个环节即粮食生产、加工、存储、销售环节分析了补贴政策的时空变化,总结提炼了目前粮食补贴政策存在的问题,以期为我国粮食补贴政策的制定提供参考。分析表明,我国粮食补贴的形式、对象、范围和目标等在起步阶段（1953-1978年）、探索调整阶段（1979-2003年）和改革发展阶段（2004-2016年）变化明显,补贴资金投入逐年增长且表现出显著的区域差异性;补贴政策逐渐向粮食主产区、经济相对发达的地区倾斜。目前我国粮食补贴政策存在的问题主要体现在补贴效果和目标的差距、补贴对象和范围的核定、补贴结构以及补贴政策的影响力和农户的认知度等方面。研究以期为完善粮食补贴政策制定和提高政策实施效果起到借鉴作用。     

不同收获方式对粮食损失的影响——基于全国3251个农户粮食收获的实地调研

使用全国3251个农户的数据,通过两步法,比较不同收获方式和社会化服务（购买农机服务）对小麦、水稻、玉米三种主要粮食作物收获环节损失的影响。结果表明：相较于全人工收获方式,全程机械化收获总体上提高了收获环节损失。分品种而言,增加了水稻损失,但降低了小麦损失;半机械化收获显著降低了玉米的收获损失。深入研究发现：购买农机服务能够显著减少小麦的收获损失,稳健性检验反映结论仍然保持一致。基于此,对于小麦要进一步推动全程机械化,对于水稻和玉米,要研发适合农户规模的小型农机和专业农机,短期内进一步推进分段机械化。     

肥胖与中国农村家庭食物浪费——基于1562户农户调查数据的实证分析

随着收入水平提升,农村家庭的日常饮食变得更加丰富,但肥胖和食物浪费问题也日益严重。基于2016年中国28省（市、自治区）1562户农户调查数据,在评估中国农村家庭食物浪费数量的基础上,实证分析肥胖对农村家庭食物浪费的影响。结果表明：（1）中国农村家庭平均每天浪费1.62%的食物,东南沿海等经济发达地区的农村食物浪费现象更为严重。（2）肥胖与农村家庭食物浪费显著正相关,这意味着伴随农户收入持续增长,农村肥胖问题凸显的同时,也容易引发食物浪费问题。（3）肥胖对家庭食物浪费的影响存在年龄异质性,户主小于60岁的情况下,肥胖与家庭食物浪费显著正相关;户主大于等于60岁的分组中,肥胖与家庭食物浪费的关系不显著。     

Do anthropogenic transports facilitate stored-product pest moth dispersal? A molecular approach

Stored-product moths cause large economic damage in food processing industries and storage facilities. Control of indoor pests is currently dealt with locally, and control strategies seldom include different mills or cooperative industries in joint efforts to reduce infestations. In colder climates where conditions hinder flight dispersal of stored-product moths, we hypothesize that human transport between mills will facilitate dispersal. Albeit considered intuitive, this hypothesis has so far never been tested. Male moths from three mills (populations) in southern Sweden and Denmark were collected and by using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) pair-wise F(st) values were calculated. Cluster (population) origins of the genotypes were computed by using a model-based method, structure. The results suggest that known transportation of flour between two mills generate genetically more similar populations of the economically important stored-product moth, Ephestia kuehniella (Zell.) (Lepidoptera; Pyralidae), compared to the third mill, with another distribution area, but situated geographically in between the other mills. The structure model placed the sampled genotypes to belong to either two or five original populations, with a higher probability of two original populations. The third mill was consistently different from the other two mills independent of the models' calculated number of populations. Although the study was restricted to three mills and one transportation route, it highlights the possibility that transportation of food products promotes genetic mixing (i.e. dispersal) of insect pest populations. Including cooperating mills in control (or monitor) strategy schemes against stored-product pest insects would therefore be a more effective action, rather than to treat each mill separately.     

Crop losses: The need to quantify the effects of pests,diseases and weeds on agricultural production

Crop losses caused by pests, including rodents and birds, and by diseases and weeds, are defined, and previous studies reviewed. Information about losses is needed to monitor the effects of pests and diseases on crop production, in individual countries and worldwide, important for food policy and economic reasons; to make decisions and allocate resources on the study, management and control of pests and diseases; to stimulate action against them; to provide guidelines for research on crop improvement to prevent pest and disease attack; and as a basis for judgement on the importance of pests, diseases and weeds in relation to agriculture and the environment.The causes of such losses, why information must be up to date, and methods of assessing pests, diseases, weeds and losses are examined. The part played by losses in the development and use of economic pest and disease control action thresholds is discussed, including pest, disease, crop, climatic, economic and farmer attitude factors. The types of relation between yield and pest and disease attack are reviewed, how to measure the relation in practice, how to obtain different amounts of attack, surveys of losses, and the difficulties met in the study of losses: interaction; compensation; interplot interference; variation; and distribution. Sources of information on world losses, training and the work of the FAO are reviewed. General guidelines on crop loss assessment are given.     

食物转化视角下我国家庭食物浪费程度与影响因素——基于CHNS数据的实证分析

长期以来,我国食物供应充足稳定,但是人口、环境等因素不断对此提出挑战,并且我国每年的食物损失和浪费数量十分惊人。从食物转化视角将食物浪费率定义为家庭食物消费中未能正常转化为家庭成员身体质量指数的比例,采用随机前沿模型并基于CHNS数据估算我国家庭食物浪费率,并探讨家庭异质性特征的影响。结果显示：家庭平均浪费率为11.28%;家庭规模越小、孩子或老年人的数量越多、收入水平越高、南方地区、户主的受教育程度越低、主要女性成员的受教育程度越高或者有工作、对膳食知识掌握程度越低的家庭浪费率越高。因此,要鼓励生产小包装食物和小型厨具,指导家庭根据实际需求购买食物,加强推广食育运动,开展节粮活动并教授减损措施。     

反食物损失和浪费：日本经验与镜鉴

中国食物浪费问题严重,对粮食安全及资源环境构成重大挑战。新出台的《中华人民共和国反食品浪费法》开启了食物系统节流战略的顶层设计,而具体可操作的落地机制亟待探寻。研究通过政策归纳总结、趋势统计、对比分析等方法,参考日本官方网站发布的第一手资料,从法律演进、政策目标、机构职能、监测体系、国民行动等方面梳理了日本减少食物浪费的做法。研究指出：日本通过扩大生产者责任、制定食物系统节流目标、构建食物损失监测和核算体系、开展多部门协作,形成了较为完善的反食物浪费政策保障体系。基于日本经验的启示,凝练出中国未来反食物损失和浪费的政策路径与对策：食物安全理念应由增产导向转为开源、节流双向发力;增强法律的针对性和约束性;开展跨部门协作机制,全环节减少粮食浪费;构建食物损失和浪费监测核算体系,分行业分对象设计节流目标。     

Survey of current crop management practices in a mixed-ricefield landscape,Mekong Delta,Vietnam — potential of habitat manipulation for improved control of citrus leafminer and citrus red mite

In the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, the citrus leafminer Phyllocnistis citrella (CLM) and the citrus red mite Panonychus citri are major pests in both sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) and Tieu mandarin (C. reticulata). Survey data indicate that these pest problems might be aggravated after farmers have completely destroyed the weed flora in their orchard. As citrus farmers only perceive the larger predators such as the weaver ant Oecophylla smaragdina and spiders, and have no idea about the existence of predatory mites or parasitoids, they do not know about potential positive attributes of weeds in pest management which sustain populations of natural enemies and their alternative food. IPM training programmes could use the weaver ant as an introduction to educating farmers about predatory mites and parasitoids, and should likewise emphasise the importance of beneficial asteraceous weeds such as Ageratum conyzoides. Non-crop trees such as Spondias dulcis, Mangifera indica, Eucalyptus tereticornis and Ceiba pentandra are commonly known to offer good refuge for the weaver ant. These trees should be further studied for their temporal contribution as food resource for other natural enemies of CLM and mites. Small adjustments of current weed management techniques are suggested to improve availability of pollen and nectar for beneficials at crucial moments in the cropping season, with due respect to implications at the landscape level.     

农业技术推广过程中制度因素的影响——湖北省天门市棉花害虫综合防治项目案例分析报告

针对中国主产棉区在病虫害防治中大量施用化学农药加重农业污染，以及害虫产生抗药性导致防治失灵等问题，由亚洲开发银行（ＡＤＢ）资助，英联邦国际生物防治研究所（ＣＡＢＩ）负责实施，于１９９３～１９９６年在中国湖北省天门市建立害虫综合防治（ＩＰＭ）项目试点，旨在研究和开发控制病虫危害和改善生态环境的适用于中国主产棉区的ＩＰＭ技术体系。ＩＰＭ项目有两个特点：①与以往因土地、人口压力而引致的技术变革不同，ＩＰＭ项目是一项因环境压力而引致的技术变革；②以往的技术变革的阻力大多来自于乡村社会结构尤其是农民对新技术的不接受，而ＩＰＭ项目在运作层面首先遇到了高度集中的防治体系的阻碍，即受到制度因素的影响。本文着重分析高度集中的防治体系形成的过程和原因，以及制度因素影响ＩＰＭ项目实施的作用机制，并提出解决问题的政策建议。     

Food,culture, and human health in Alaska: an integrative health approach to food security

Multiple climatic and socioeconomic drivers have come in recent years to interfere with the ability of Alaska's ‘bush’ communities to achieve food security with locally available food resources. Livelihoods traditionally centered on the harvest of wild, country foods, are transitioning to a cash economy, with increasing reliance on industrially produced, store-bought foods. While commercially available foods provide one measure of food security, availability and quality of these foods is subject to the vagaries and vulnerabilities of a global food system: access is dependent on one's ability to pay; most importantly, perhaps these foods often do not fulfill many of the roles that country foods have played in these communities and cultures. This transition is having severe consequences for the health of people and viability of rural communities, yet in ways not always tracked by conventional food security methodologies and frameworks. This paper expands the discussion of food security, premised on an integrative model of health that links sociocultural, ecological, psychological, and biomedical aspects of individual and community health. We use the Alaska case to illustrate that if food security is to be understood as a matter of human health, then our definitions of and designs for food security must recognize food's multifaceted and often regionally nuanced role in creating positive health outcomes.