A framework for assessing the impact of land use policy on community exposure to air toxics

Our research focuses on the linkage between land use planning policy and the spatial pattern of exposure to air toxics emissions. Our objective is to develop a modeling framework for assessment of the community health risk implications of land use policy. The modeling framework is not intended to be a regulatory tool for small-scale land use decisions, but a long-range planning tool to assess the community health risk implications of alternative land use scenarios at a regional or subregional scale. This paper describes the development and application of an air toxic source model for generating aggregate emission factors for industrial and commercial zoning districts as a function of permitted uses. To address the uncertainty of estimating air toxics emission rates for planned general land use or zoning districts, the source model uses an emissions probability mass function that weights each incremental permitted land use activity by the likelihood of occurrence. We thus reduce the uncertainty involved in planning for development with no prior knowledge of the specific industries that may locate within the land use district. These air toxics emission factors can then be used to estimate pollutant atmospheric mass flux from land use zoning districts, which can then be input to air dispersion and human health risk assessment models to simulate the spatial pattern of air toxics exposure risk. The model database was constructed using the California Air Toxics Inventory, 1997 US Economic Census, and land assessment records from several California counties. The database contains information on more than 200 air toxics at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. We present a case study to illustrate application of the model. LUAIRTOX, the interactive spreadsheet model that applies our methodology to the California data, is available at http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~mwillis/LUAIRTOX.htm.     

Health benefits valuation of regulatory intervention for air pollution control in thermal power plants in Delhi,India

This study estimates minimum marginal health benefits (morbidity reduction only) of air pollution control and total health benefits arising from regulatory intervention regarding the adoption of the World Bank emission guidelines (WBEG) for thermal power plants (TPPs) in Delhi. The Industrial Source Complex-Short-Term Version–3 (ISCST3) model has been used to estimate the contribution to air pollution from TPPs. The household health production function (avertive behaviour) has been used to value health benefits of air pollution control. The study revealed that the ambient air pollution due to TPPs is reduced by between 62.17% to 83.45% by adopting the WBEG. Annual marginal benefit due to reduction in exposure to air pollution by 1 μg m^?3 is estimated to be US$0.353 per person. Total annual health benefits for adopting the WBEG for TPPs are estimated at US$235.19 million. This study provides a novel methodology to evaluate health benefits of regulatory intervention.     

Control strategies for vehicular NOx emissions in Guangzhou, China

Guangzhou is a city in southern China that has experienced very rapid economic development in recent years. The city's air has very high concentrations of various pollutants, including sulphur dioxide (SO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), ozone (O₃) and particulate. This paper reviews the changes in air quality in the city over the past 15 years, and notes that a serious vehicular-related emissions problem has been superimposed on the traditional coal-burning problem evident in most Chinese cities. As NOx concentrations have increased, oxidants and photochemical smog now interact with the traditional SO₂ and particulate pollutants, leading to increased health risks and other environmental concerns.
Any responsible NOx control strategy for the city must include vehicle emission control measures. This paper reviews control strategies designed to abate vehicle emissions to fulfill the city's air quality improvement target in 2010. A cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that, while NOx emission control is expensive, vehicular emission standards could achieve a relatively sizable emissions reduction at reasonable cost. To achieve the 2010 air quality target of NOx, advanced implementation of EURO3 standards is recommended, substituting for the EURO2 currently envisioned in the national regulations. Related technical options, including fuel quality improvements and inspection/maintenance (I/M) upgrades (ASM or IM240), are assessed as well.     

大气污染物排放标准制定的法律原则和程序研究

《大气污染防治法》授权国家环境保护主管部门制定大气污染物排放标准,但关于标准的法律规则还不够全面,在一定程度上影响了排放标准的功能发挥,也给标准限值确定带来了困难。当前国家正在对《大气污染防治法》进行修订,为完善相关标准条款,本文在对我国大气污染物排放标准立法现状分析的基础上,借鉴国外相关标准的立法规则和我国标准实践经验,提出了适用于我国的大气污染物排放标准制定的主要法律原则和程序建议。研究认为,制定大气污染物排放标准应考虑污染物对公众健康、空气质量和生态环境的影响,以及可采取的污染控制技术措施等情况,通过技术经济论证确定排放限值和相关技术要求,做到技术可行、经济合理、减排效益突出。标准制定过程要充分听取各方意见,经标准评审委员会审查通过后方可按照部门规章批准发布。     

超低排放背景下煤电机组氨管控存在的问题及对策探析

近年来,我国大气污染防治成效显著,煤电机组超低排放政策实施对此做出了突出贡献。氮氧化物是煤电机组超低排放中的重要控制指标之一。然而,受现有氮氧化物排放监测和喷氨控制技术的精度、反馈时效等因素的限制,为提高脱硝效率保证性,电厂在实际运行中存在过量喷氨现象,未完全反应的氨进入大气后可能造成二次颗粒物增加。针对这一现象,本文回顾了我国火电行业氮氧化物排放标准和治理措施的演化及实施效果,对煤电机组氨排放现状和存在的问题进行了深入分析,提出在推进氮氧化物超低排放过程中应开展脱硝过量喷氨现状调研,鼓励企业开展脱硝系统优化,加强复杂烟气环境下氨监测技术研发,完善脱硝氨逃逸日常环境监管,推动氨排放全生命周期转化规律基础研究和大气环境效应评估,进一步提升煤电机组超低排放政策实施的综合环境效益,也对其他行业超低排放政策推进起到示范作用。     

Economic Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Abatement Measures in the Greek Energy Sector

This paper outlines a methodological framework for the economic evaluation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission abatement policies and measures, formulating a basis for the selection of those options of climate change mitigation interventions that minimize economic cost and maximize social welfare. To this purpose, a cost-benefit analysis has been implemented in order to evaluate a variety of CO 2 emission abatement measures in the Greek energy sector on the basis of their social (i.e. the sum of the private and external) costs and benefits, and it is compared with a cost-effectiveness analysis, which takes into account only the net financial costs of the examined interventions. The analysis clearly reveals that a significant decrease in CO 2 emissions is possible without great cost to the economy. Moreover, the monetization of environmental benefits (e.g. the restriction of impacts on human health, agriculture and biodiversity, etc.) associated with the above-mentioned interventions represents a powerful tool for highlighting priority actions in the context of a climate change mitigation policy and for quantifying their overall economic and environmental effectiveness.     

Multi-criteria decision analysis for the optimal management of nitrate contamination of aquifers

We present an integrated methodology for the optimal management of nitrate contamination of ground water combining environmental assessment and economic cost evaluation through multi-criteria decision analysis. The proposed methodology incorporates an integrated physical modeling framework accounting for on-ground nitrogen loading and losses, soil nitrogen dynamics, and fate and transport of nitrate in ground water to compute the sustainable on-ground nitrogen loading such that the maximum contaminant level is not violated. A number of protection alternatives to stipulate the predicted sustainable on-ground nitrogen loading are evaluated using the decision analysis that employs the importance order of criteria approach for ranking and selection of the protection alternatives. The methodology was successfully demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The results showed the importance of using this integrated approach which predicts the sustainable on-ground nitrogen loadings and provides an insight into the economic consequences generated in satisfying the environmental constraints. The results also show that the proposed decision analysis framework, within certain limitations, is effective when selecting alternatives with competing demands.     

Coupling field observations, soil modeling, and air dispersion algorithms to estimate 1,3-dichloropropene and chloropicrin flux and exposure

Soil fumigants are volatile compounds applied to agricultural land to control nematode populations, weeds, and crop diseases. Field trials used for measuring fumigant loss from soil to the atmosphere encompass only a small proportion of the near semi-infinite parameter combinations of environmental, agronomic, and meteorological conditions. One approach to supplement field observations uses a soil physics model for fumigant emission predictions. A model is first validated against existing field study observations and then used to extrapolate results to a wider range of edaphic and climatic conditions. This work compares field observations of 1,3-dichloropropene and chloropicrin emissions to predictions from the USDA soil model CHAIN_2D. Comparison between model predictions and field observations for a Florida and California study had values between 0.62 to 0.81 and 0.99 to 1.0 for discrete and cumulative emission flux, respectively. CHAIN_2D emission rates were then coupled to several USEPA air dispersion models (ISCST3, CALPUFF6) to extend emission estimates to near field air concentrations. CALPUFF6 predicted slightly higher 1-h maximum air concentrations than ISCST3 for the same source strength (26.2-36.0% for setbacks between 1 and 250 m from the field edge, respectively). A sensitivity analysis for the CHAIN_2D/ISCST3 coupled numerical system is provided, with several soil and irrigation parameters consistently the most sensitive. Changes in the depth of incorporation, tarp material, and initial soil water content illustrate the predicted impact to emission strength and resulting near-field air concentrations with reductions of cumulative emission loss from 8.1 to 71% and average 1-h maximum air concentration reductions between 6.2 and 41% depending on the mitigation strategy chosen. Additionally, a stochastic framework based on the published SOFEA system that couples variability in experiment, model sensitivity, and site specific attributes is outlined should regional air concentration estimates resulting from fumigant use be sought.     

WATER ALLOCATION POLICY MODELING FOR THE DONG NAI RIVER BASIN: AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE1

Abstract: Recent water sector reforms and increased scarcity and vulnerability of water resources, combined with declining public funding available for large scale infrastructure investment in the sector, have led to a greater awareness by the Government of Vietnam for the need to analyze water resource allocation and use in an integrated fashion, at the basin scale, and from a perspective of economic efficiency. In this study we focus on the development, application, and selected policy analyses using an integrated economic hydrologic river basin model for the Dong Nai River Basin in southern Vietnam. The model framework depicts the sectoral structure and location of water users (agriculture, industry, hydropower, domestic, and the environment) and the institutions for water allocation in the basin. Water benefit functions are developed for the major water uses subject to physical limitations and to constraints of system control and policy. Based on this modeling framework, we will analyze policies that can affect water allocation and use at the basin level, including both basin-specific and general macroeconomic policies.     

Photochemical model evaluation of the surface ozone impact of a power plant in a heavily industrialized area of southwestern Spain

The characterization and evaluation of the impact that an industry is likely to have on the surrounding ozone levels is one of many problems confronting air quality managers and should be taken into consideration when authorizing its installation. The correct management of an environment, in terms of monitoring existing industries and planning new activities, requires adequate knowledge of the processes sustained by the industrial emissions therein.This paper explores the improvements in air quality management arising from taking into account the uncertainties involved in the photochemical modeling of the impact of an industry on surface ozone levels.For this, we evaluate the impact on ozone levels of a power plant located in an industrial area of southwestern Spain (Huelva). The evaluation takes into account the effects of both emissions' uncertainty and the non-linear chemistry between ozone and its precursors, thus providing a probable range of increase over the normative values (hourly and 8-hourly maximums) defined in the European Directive. The proposed methodology is easily applicable by air quality managers.Advanced modeling techniques were used for the power plant assessment, MM5 atmospheric modeling system, and air quality model CAMx. The results from meteorology and ozone forecasts have shown acceptable agreement with the observations.The spatial distribution of the impact is found to be strongly determined by mesoscale meteorological processes, which are reinforced by the local orography; there is also a marked temporal evolution. The industrial plume is observed to induce a decrease (or maintenance) of the ozone levels near the emission source (0–10 km), and an increase in the ozone concentrations farther away (with maximums between 10 and 50 km). In fact, in the meteorological episodes with a predominance of local breeze circulations, impacts have been detected at distances of more than 100 km from the emission source.Sensitivity of the power plant impact to variations in ozone precursor emissions is described, and the scenarios and the points in the domain presenting higher sensitivity and registering larger impacts are also identified. The results show that the largest impacts take place in emission scenarios where the NO_x has been reduced with respect to the base case scenario. In contrast, in scenarios where the VOC emissions are reduced with respect to the base case scenario, the impact is smaller or remains unchanged. This is important in areas like the study case, where there is a high percentage of biogenic VOC emissions and the industrial areas are close to natural protected areas and agricultural fields.     

PM2.5及其工业源头控制技术

PM2.5对人体健康和空气质量有巨大的危害,环保部已修订相关法规和文件,将PM2.5纳入我国环境空气质量监测范围,采取有效手段控制PM2.5是我国一项重要的环保目标,在工业企业中采用最先进的表面过滤技术可从源头控制工业PM2.5的排放。     

A conceptual framework of agricultural land use planning with BMP for integrated watershed management

Land use planning is an important element of the integrated watershed management approach. It not only influences the environmental processes such as soil and stream bed erosion, sediment and nutrient concentrations in streams, quality of surface and ground waters in a watershed, but also affects social and economic development in that region. Although its importance in achieving sustainable development has long been recognized, a land use planning methodology based on a systems approach involving realistic computational modeling and meta-heuristic optimization is still lacking in the current practice of integrated watershed management. The present study proposes a new approach which attempts to combine computational modeling of upland watershed processes, fluvial processes and modern heuristic optimization techniques to address the water-land use interrelationship in its full complexity. The best land use allocation is decided by a multi-objective function that minimizes sediment yields and nutrient concentrations as well as the total operation/implementation cost, while the water quality and the production benefits from agricultural exploitation are maximized. The proposed optimization strategy considers also the preferences of land owners. The runoff model AnnAGNPS (developed by USDA), and the channel network model CCHE1D (developed by NCCHE), are linked together to simulate sediment/pollutant transport process at watershed scale based on any assigned land use combination. The greedy randomized adaptive Tabu search heuristic is used to flip the land use options for finding an optimum combination of land use allocations. The approach is demonstrated by applying it to a demonstrative case study involving USDA Goodwin Creek experimental watershed located in northern Mississippi. The results show the improvement of the tradeoff between benefits and costs for the watershed, after implementing the proposed optimal land use planning.     

Perceptions of emission reduction potential in air transport: a structural equation modeling approach

This study employs a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach to identify the key perceptions that influence greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potential (ERP) in air transport. It explores the correlation relationships between various perceptions and air transport GHG emission reduction potential. Personal approach and self-administered surveys were used to collect data from 249 aviation experts. The results of the SEM showed aircraft technology and design, aviation operations and infrastructure, socioeconomic and political measures, and alternative fuels and fuel properties are the key influencing perceptions for reducing GHG emissions. Aircraft technology and design had the strongest ERP, followed by aviation operations and infrastructure with a strong correlation between them. The structural model proved reliable and in agreement to identify the perceptions of the ERP. The outputs can be used to measure the level of knowledge and understanding about the ERP of air transport and can provide airlines with valuable information for designing appropriate air transport policies for emission reduction.     

Cost-Effective Mitigation of Diffuse Pollution: Setting Criteria for River Basin Management at Multiple Locations

A case study of the Yorkshire Derwent (UK) catchment is used to illustrate an integrated approach for assessing the viability of policy options for reducing diffuse nitrate losses to waterbodies. For a range of options, modeling methods for simulating river nitrate levels are combined with techniques for estimating the economic costs to agriculture of modifying those levels. By incorporating spatially explicit data and information on catchment residence times (which may span many decades particularly in areas of groundwater discharge) a method is developed for efficient spatial targeting of measures, for example, to the most at-risk freshwater environments. Combining hydrological and economic findings, the analysis reveals that, in terms of cost-effectiveness, the ranking of options is highly sensitive to both (i) whether or not specific stretches of river within a catchment are regarded as a priority for protection, and (ii) the criterion of nitrate concentration deemed most appropriate as an indicator of the health of the environment. Therefore, given the focus under European legislation upon ecological status of freshwaters, these conclusions highlight the need to improve understanding of mechanistic linkages between the chemical and biological dynamics of aquatic systems.     

Realizing the Potential of Ecosystem Services: A Framework for Relating Ecological Changes to Economic Benefits

Increasingly government agencies are seeking to quantify the outcomes of proposed policy options in terms of ecosystem service benefits, yet conflicting definitions and ad hoc approaches to measuring ecosystem services have created confusion regarding how to rigorously link ecological change to changes in human well-being. Here, we describe a step-by-step framework for producing ecological models and metrics that can effectively serve an economic-benefits assessment of a proposed change in policy or management. A focus of the framework is developing comparable units of ecosystem goods and services to support decision-making, even if outcomes cannot be monetized. Because the challenges to translating ecological changes to outcomes appropriate for economic analyses are many, we discuss examples that demonstrate practical methods and approaches to overcoming data limitations. The numerous difficult decisions that government agencies must make to fairly use and allocate natural resources provides ample opportunity for interdisciplinary teams of natural and social scientists to improve methods for quantifying changes in ecosystem services and their effects on human well-being. This framework is offered with the intent of promoting the success of such teams as they support managers in evaluating the equivalency of ecosystem service offsets and trades, establishing restoration and preservation priorities, and more generally, in developing environmental policy that effectively balances multiple perspectives.     

Economic assessment of managing processionary moth in pine forests: a case-study in Portugal

This paper assesses the private and social profitability of current strategies for managing processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) in Portuguese pine forests, looking at economic and environmental costs and benefits. Costs include the expenses for forest treatment and the social costs of threats to human health (dermatitis amongst others); benefits are assessed in terms of both revenue and social benefits such as carbon fixation and recreation. The evaluation was done using Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as an analytical framework. While this tool is currently applied to forest and environmental assessment and specific applications to pest management strategies are to be found in agricultural economics, rather few attempts have been made in the field of forest pest management. In order to assess and compare with--without options, a case-study was analysed for the Setúbal Peninsula, south of Lisbon, an area where extensive stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) grow. The exercise has shown that CBA can be a valuable tool for assessing the economic and social profitability of pest management. The results demonstrate that the loss of revenues in the no-management option is not sufficient to make pest management profitable for private forest owners in the short-term. Conversely, a social profit is gained as pest management minimizes health risks for humans and avoids possible recreational losses.     

Assessing Health Benefits of Controlling Air Pollution from Power Generation: The Case of a Lignite-Fired Power Plant in Thailand

The impact pathway approach (IPA) is used to estimate quantitatively the level of health effects caused by particulate matter (PM₁₀) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission from a lignite-fired power plant located in the Mae Moh area in northern region of Thailand. Health benefits are then assessed by comparing the levels of estimated health impacts without and with the installation of the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) equipment. The US EPA industrial source complex model is used to model air pollution dispersion at the local scale, and the sector average limited mixing meso-scale model is used to model air pollution transport at the regional scale. The quantification of the health end points in physical terms is carried out using the dose–response functions established recently for the population in Bangkok, Thailand. Monetarization of these effects is based on the benefit transfer method with appropriate adjustment. Finally, it has been found that the installation of the FGD to control SO₂ emission at Mae Moh significantly reduces adverse health effects not only on the population living near the power plant but also all over the country. A FGD unit installed at the 300-MW power unit can result, on average, in 16 fewer cases of acute mortality, 12 fewer cases of respiratory and cardiac hospital admissions, and almost 354,000 fewer days with acute respiratory symptoms annually. In monetary terms this benefit is equivalent to US $18.2 million (1995 prices) per annum. This benefit is much higher than the annualized investment and operation costs of FGD (US $7.4 million/yr).     

Quantifying the human health benefits of curbing air pollution in Shanghai

Urban development in the mega-cities of Asia has caused detrimental effects on the human health of its inhabitants through air pollution. However, averting these health damages by investing in clean energy and industrial technologies and measures can be expensive. Many cities do not have the capital to make such investments or may prefer to invest that capital elsewhere. In this article, we examine the city of Shanghai, China, and perform an illustrative cost/benefit analysis of air pollution control. Between 1995 and 2020 we expect that Shanghai will continue to grow rapidly. Increased demands for energy will cause increased use of fossil fuels and increased emissions of air pollutants. In this work, we examine emissions of particles smaller than 10 microm in diameter (PM10), which have been associated with inhalation health effects. We hypothesize the establishment of a new technology strategy for coal-fired power generation after 2010 and a new industrial coal-use policy. The health benefits of pollution reduction are compared with the investment costs for the new strategies. The study shows that the benefit-to-cost ratio is in the range of 1-5 for the power-sector initiative and 2-15 for the industrial-sector initiative. Thus, there appear to be considerable net benefits for these strategies, which could be very large depending on the valuation of health effects in China today and in the future. This study therefore provides economic grounds for supporting investments in air pollution control in developing cities like Shanghai.     

我国大气细颗粒物污染防治目标和控制措施研究

我国面临着严重的细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染问题,PM2.5对人体健康、能见度、气候变化、生态系统等均产生了不良影响。本文旨在提出我国PM2.5污染防治目标和控制措施,为从根本上改善空气质量提供科学依据。首先,本文提出了2020年和2030年我国PM2.5污染防治目标。其次,采用能源和污染排放技术模型,分情景预测了我国未来一次大气污染物排放量的变化趋势。基于情景预测结果和此前研究建立的一次污染物排放与PM2.5浓度间的非线性关系,确定了2020年—2030年与PM2.5浓度改善相适应的全国和重点区域大气污染物减排目标。最后,利用能源和污染排放技术模型,提出了实现大气污染物减排的技术措施和对策建议。研究表明,2030年全国二氧化硫、氮氧化物、一次PM2.5和挥发性有机物的排放量应分别比2012年至少削减51%、64%、53%和36%,氨排放量也要略有下降。对于污染严重的重点区域,必须采取更严格的控制力度。要实现上述减排,应加快能源结构调整,推进煤炭清洁高效集中可持续利用,建立"车-油-路"一体的移动源控制体系,并强化多源多污染物的末端控制。     

A methodology for estimation of vehicle emissions in an urban environment: an example from Greater Manchester

Road transport is a major contributor to urban air pollution. The introduction of local air qua lity management in the UK will require objective test procedures to evaluate and prioritise the air pollution benefits of existing transport systems and proposed developments. This methodology has been developed to assist the land use and transport planning professionals in evaluating current and potential future impacts on air quality. The method couples an emissions estimation procedure to a traffic flow database. It requires data on emission factors, the composition of the vehicle fleet, vehicle control technologies and the daily traffic flow profile. With these data, it is possible to generate emission estimates per kilometre, link or road as selected by the user. Forecasts can be made by varying input variables. The current methodology allows prediction of five or more pollutant species/classes, limited only by availability of emission factors. The method utilises a commercially available personal computer based spreadsheet. Further coupling of the method to a geographical information system will improve the decision support capability of the method.