Climate-induced changes in fish landings of different fleet components of Portuguese fisheries

For each Portuguese fleet component, landings of biogeographic groups of fish species were compared for the period of 1993–2009. Wide-distribution species were the most abundant in landings, but have shown a decreasing trend. Temperate species had higher landings in trawl fisheries, whereas subtropical species were most abundant and exhibiting an increasing trend in landings of multi-gear fisheries. A latitudinal gradient was observed, with landings of temperate species being more important in the North-western coast than in the South-western and South coasts. Although trawl fisheries were relatively more important in the North-western coast, there has been a recent increase in the relative importance of multi-gear fisheries and of subtropical species in this area. The increasing relative importance of subtropical species in Portuguese fisheries along with the fact that landings of subtropical species were higher in multi-gear fisheries could indicate an easier adaptation of Portuguese multi-gear fisheries to the effects of climate change. However, as multi-gear fisheries include a wide range of gears, techniques and target-species, they may not all respond in the same manner to changes in fish species’ distribution. Among multi-gear fisheries, trammel nets catch a wider variety of species and a wider size range than gill nets or longlines; thus, trammel net fishers can adapt to changes in abundance of the main target species more readily than those using more species- and size-specific gears. Therefore, trammel net fisheries could more easily adapt to the effects of climate change on fish distribution than gill net or longline fisheries.     

Impact of climate warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast under different scenarios

Impact of sea-surface warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast was assessed under two scenarios, the A2 and the B2 scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios), which when coupled with a regional circulation model HadRM3 predict 1 and 2°C of sea-surface warming until the year 2100. Species richness increased in the Portuguese coast. In both scenarios, there was a latitudinal gradient in the amount of lost and gained species, increasing from north to south. An anomaly in the latitudinal gradient of species richness was detected in the southernmost area, which presented the lowest species richness of all areas, in the A2 scenario, and appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Very few species were totally eliminated from Portuguese waters. For the Portuguese coast as a whole, there were more new than lost species, in both scenarios. Most of the new species were commercially important species, in the majority subtropical in the north and tropical in the south, mainly demersal and reef-associated. Reef-associated species also increased in relative importance. A commercial opportunity for fisheries may arise from climate warming, since most of the new species were commercial species and not many commercial species were lost. An increasing gradient from north to south was detected in the colonization of new species of herbivores, planktivores, and omnivores, as well as lower mean trophic level, which might have consequences for the future of trophic webs.     

Radionuclide transfer from soil to fruit

The available literature on the transfer of radionuclides from soil to fruit has been reviewed with the aim of identifying the main variables and processes affecting the behaviour of radionuclides in fruit plants. Where available, data for transfer of radionuclides from soil to other components of fruit plant have also been collected, to help in understanding the processes of translocation and storage in perennial plants. Soil-to-fruit transfer factors were derived from agricultural ecosystems, both from temperate and subtropical or tropical zones. Aggregated transfer factors have also been collected from natural or semi-natural ecosystems. The data concern numerous fruits and various radionuclides. Soil-to-fruit transfer is nuclide specific. The variability for a given radionuclide is first of all ascribable to the different properties of soils. Fruit plant species are very heterogeneous, varying from woody trees and shrubs to herbaceous plants. In temperate areas the soil-to-fruit transfer is higher in woody trees for caesium and in shrubs for strontium. Significant differences between the values obtained in temperate and subtropical and tropical regions do not necessarily imply that they are ascribable to climate. Transfer factors for caesium are higher in subtropical and tropical fruits, while those for strontium, as well as for plutonium and americium, in the same fruits, are lower; these results can be interpreted taking into account different soil characteristics.     

近60年中国持续极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析

极端降水具有较强的持续时间不确定性，持续多天的极端降水事件往往具有较大的致灾性，但目前从极端降水持续性角度进行极端降水变化及其环流因素的研究还非常缺乏。利用1961~2018年中国逐日降水格点数据集以及大气环流指数数据，定义持续了2天及以上的极端降水为持续极端降水事件，研究其在中国不同区域发生频次、持续日数以及持续极端降水总量、持续极端降水最大降水量的时空变化和影响因素。结果表明：（1）近60年来，中国持续极端降水事件在较为干旱的地区(蒙新地区、青藏地区)高发且持续时间长，但在较湿润的地区（东部地区）持续极端降水事件强度更高。（2）中国持续极端降水事件的频率和强度均呈现出增加的趋势，但在区域尺度上，东部地区没有明显的变化趋势，越干旱的地区增加趋势越大。各个指数变化趋势的空间分布格局相似。（3）持续极端降水事件对总降水的贡献率呈现出缓慢的增长趋势，东部地区增长趋势不明显。（4）西太平洋副高、南海副高、西太平洋暖池、亚洲区极涡、北半球极涡和中国持续极端降水事件有着显著的相关关系。区域尺度上，西太平洋副高对蒙新地区和青藏地区的影响最大，东部地区则受到西太平洋副高和西太平洋暖池的较大影响。总体上西太平洋副高对于中国持续极端降水事件影响最大，西太平洋副高强度的加强往往会引起中国持续极端降水增多。     

Direct and indirect effects of climate and fishing on changes in coastal ecosystem services: a historical perspective from the North Sea

Humanity depends on the marine environment for a range of vital ecosystem services, at global (e.g. climate regulation), regional (e.g. commercial fisheries) and local scales (e.g. coastal defence and recreation). At the same time, marine ecosystems have been exploited for centuries, and many systems today are under stress from multiple sources. Recent studies have shown how both climate change and fishing have caused long-term changes in the marine environment. However, there is still poor understanding of how these changes influence change in coastal ecosystem services. In this paper, an integrated modelling approach is used to assess how the final delivery of marine ecosystem services to coastal communities is influenced by the direct and indirect effects of changes in ecosystem processes brought about by climate and human impacts, using fisheries of the North Sea region as a case study. Partial least squares path analysis is used to explore the relationships between drivers of change, marine ecosystem processes and services (landings). A simple conceptual model with four variables—climate, fishing effort, ecosystem process and ecosystem services—is applied to the English North Sea using historic ecological, climatic and fisheries time series spanning 1924–2010 to identify the multiple pathways that might exist. As expected, direct and indirect links between fishing effort, ecosystem processes and service provision were significant. However, links between climate and ecosystem processes were weak. This paper highlights how path analysis can be used for analysing long-term temporal links between ecosystem processes and services following a simplified pathway.     

鄱阳湖流域1960～2018年极端气温变化及其与大气环流的关系

为进一步揭示鄱阳湖流域极端气温事件变化及其影响因素,基于鄱阳湖流域24个气象站点连续59年观测资料,选取8个极端气温指数,分析鄱阳湖流域极端气温动态变化,并探讨了大气环流与极端气温变化的联系.结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖流域极端气温暖指数(暖昼天数、暖夜天数和夏日天数)及极值指数(日最低气温最小值和日最高气温最大值)均呈增加趋势;冷指数(冷昼天数、冷夜天数和霜冻天数)均呈逐渐减少趋势.(2)从空间分布来看,极端气温空间变化趋势与年际变化一致,极端气温暖指数和极值指数呈增加趋势,冷指数均呈减少趋势,但在不同地区变化趋势存在差异.流域各站点霜冻天数和冷昼天数均呈显著下降趋势,但在赣北地区下降趋势最显著.大部分站点(23/24)暖夜天数、夏日天数和日最低气温最小值均呈显著增加趋势;(3)鄱阳湖流域极端气温指数的变化与大气环流的变化存在相关性,其中西太平洋副高强度指数、夏季东亚季风指数、亚洲区极涡强度指数和北极涛动指数对极端气温事件影响显著.研究结果可为极端气候风险评估、灾害预警提供参考.     

Environmental influence on commercial fishery landings of small pelagic fish in Portugal

Small pelagic fishes are particularly abundant in areas with high environmental variability (zones of coastal upwelling and areas of tidal mixing and river discharge), and because of this, their abundance suffers large inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations. In Portugal, the most important species in terms of landings are European sardine, Atlantic horse mackerel and Atlantic chub mackerel. Small pelagic fish landings account for 62.8 % of the total fish biomass and represent 32.7 % of the economical value of all catches. We have investigated trends in landings of these small pelagic fishes and detected the effects of environmental factors in this fishery. In order to explain the variability of landings of small pelagic fishes, we have used official landings (1965–2012) for trawling and purse seine fisheries and applied generalized linear models, using the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) (annual and winter NAO index), sea surface temperature (SST), wind data (strength and North–South and East–West wind components) and rainfall, as explanatory variables. Regression analysis was used to describe the relationship between landings and SST. The models explained between 50.16 and 51.07 % of the variability of the LPUE, with the most important factors being winter NAO index, SST and wind strength. The LPUE of European sardine and Atlantic horse mackerel was negatively correlated with SST, and LPUE of Atlantic chub mackerel was positively correlated with SST. The use of landings of three important species of small pelagic fishes allowed the detection of variations in landings associated with changes in sea water temperature and NAO index.     

Projected burden of disease for Salmonella infection due to increased temperature in Australian temperate and subtropical regions

ObjectiveThis study aimed to project the future disability burden of Salmonella infection associated with increased temperature in future in temperate and subtropical regions of Australia in order to provide recommendations for public health policy to respond to climate change.MethodsYears Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of the burden of disease in this study. Regions in temperate and subtropical Australia were selected for this study. Future temperature change scenarios in the study were based on Australian projections, developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2000 were calculated as the baseline data. YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2030 and 2050 under future temperature change scenarios were projected based on the quantitative relationship between temperature and disease examined in previously published regression models. Future demographic change was also considered in this analysis.ResultsCompared with the YLDs in 2000, increasing temperature and demographic changes may lead to a 9%–48% increase in the YLDs for Salmonella infection by 2030 and a 31%–87% increase by 2050 in the temperate region, and a 51%–100% increase by 2030 and an 87%–143% increase by 2050 in the subtropical region, if other factors remain constant.ConclusionTemperature-related health burden of Salmonella infection in Australia may increase in the future due to change in climate and demography in the absence of effective public health interventions. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change.     

长江口及邻近水域渔业资源监测现状分析

长江口及邻近水域是我国多种重要鱼类产卵、索饵、育肥的优良场所和洄游通道,对于该水域渔业资源进行有效监测是开展资源评估和养护的基础.以渔业资源监测的4种常见途径,即注册制度、问卷调查及访问调查、直接监测和报告制度为框架,对照总结了这一水域各种监测项目的发展水平和缺陷,特别针对依赖于渔业的调查和独立于渔业的调查,详细分析了渔业观察员项目、科考船、采样调查设计、渔业声学调查、标志放流、鱼卵仔稚鱼调查等环节的发展现状.在此基础上对现有监测项目的发展完善提出改进建议,旨在为该水域后续建立科学合理的渔业资源监测体系积累基础参考资料.     

我国水产科学研究状况及发展战略浅谈

根据我国的国情，内陆水体水产学的研究重心应从发展渔业转移到保护水质上来，这种转移是与国际潮流相一致的，也是符合国民经济需求和民族长远利益的，必须努力促进这个学科方向的转移，并通过科学导向将我国水产开发的重点转向海洋，给我们的子孙后代留下了赖以生存的清洁水源。     

Impact of global warming on European tidal estuaries: some evidence of northward migration of estuarine fish species

The aim of this study was to determine whether the latitudinal distribution of fish species that use estuaries to complete their entire life cycle has shifted northward as an expected consequence of global warming. The mean latitude of past fish species distributions found in 1970s’ literature was compared with the mean latitude of distributions today based on fish density indices collected in 55 tidal estuaries along the Atlantic European seaboard, from Portugal to Scotland. Among the 15 most common species, 11 displayed a positive difference between current and past mean latitudes suggesting a northward shift of the populations. Using the occurrence of subtropical species in temperate areas as an indicator of water warming, the northernmost range limit of 10 subtropical species was subsequently focused on. Six of them were recorded up to their past northern latitudinal limit. These results reinforced the idea that a number of fish species associated to estuaries have migrated northwards over the last 30 years, possibly due to water warming. These ecological changes can get important managerial implications, i.e. in the assessment of the ecological status in European directives.     

Building blocks of economic resilience to climate change: a south east Australian fisheries example

Climate change will impact on ecological, social, and economic elements of fisheries; however, the three are seldom considered in an integrated fashion. We develop a fishery-level assessment of economic resilience to climate change for the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery, a linked social–ecological system. We outline the main climate change forcing influences that link climate change to the fishery via changes in lobster abundance, distribution, and phenology. Using a bottom-up approach, we identify twelve economic attributes strongly related to the fisheries’ economic resilience to climate change. Resilience attributes are grouped according to the level of the economic domain (business, sectoral, and governance). Attributes are then evaluated to determine the overall economic resilience of the rock lobster fishery in the context of the specific nature of predicted climate change effects. We identify areas of low resilience in the economic sub-system for this fishery. Evaluating the economic resilience of regional fisheries using this integrated, interdisciplinary framework provides a practical, parsimonious, and conceptually sound basis for undertaking comprehensive and contextually tailored assessments of climate change impacts and economic vulnerability. The framework can be extended to include a broader range of climate change impacts and the social domain of the human sub-system.     

长江河口近岸水体自然净化作用及其初步评价

按照水体的净化机理，结合长江口和上海滨岸带近岸水体的物理、化学和生物等因素的实际特征，对近岸水体的自然净化作用进行了阐述和分析。并在历史资料和实测资料基础上，就近岸水体的自然净化作用进行了评价。评价结果表明，因长江河口近岸水体存在较强的自然净化作用机制，近岸水体体的自然净化能力较强，环境容量较大，但由于污染物输入量的不断增加，部分岸段近岸水体的环境质量有逐渐下降的趋势；近岸水体的自然净化作用具有明显的季节性变化，长江口南岸水域洪水季节水体的自然净化作用比估水季节强，而杭州湾北岸水域的自然净化作用表现为相反的变化趋势，因此建议在近岸污水排放过程中应考虑近岸水体的净化能力，遵循水体的自然净化作用规律。     

大九湖泥炭磁化率及腐殖化度记录的18.7 Ka BP气候变化

神农架大九湖泥炭沼泽是中纬度亚热带地区的高山泥炭沼泽,其连续沉积的泥炭剖面蕴含了丰富的气候变化信息,对揭示我国中纬度地区不同时间尺度的气候环境变化有着重要意义。使用碱提取溶液吸光度法对大九湖泥炭吸光度进行测定,以E4/E6比值表征腐殖化度,同时测定了泥炭的磁化率,通过AMS14C测年技术建立了神农架大九湖泥炭地的年代序列,结合区域的其他气候代用指标,分析大九湖泥炭磁化率与腐殖化度E4/E6的古气候意义：大九湖泥炭频率磁化率值高指示气候冷干,降水量小;磁化率值偏低指示气候暖湿,降水量大。E4/E6值高,腐殖化度低,指示气候冷干;值低,腐殖化度高,指示气候暖湿。探讨大九湖地区末次冰消期以来的气候变化,重建该区18.7 Ka BP 的气候演化过程：末次冰期结束期（18.7~11.7 Ka BP）气候比较冷干,期间存在气候冷暖干湿交替波动;全新世（11.7~0 Ka BP）以来,气温开始回升,气候比较暖湿,期间也存在突发性降温事件,其中,全新世早期（11.7~9.3 Ka BP）气候冷暖干湿交替波动,总体冷湿;全新世中期（9.3~3.5 Ka BP）气候暖湿;全新世晚期（3.5~0 Ka BP）气候温干。 关键词： 泥炭;磁化率;E4/E6;大九湖;气候变化     

Environmental degradation by mud in tropical estuaries

In wet tropical countries, the intense rainfall and the lack of effective restrictions on human activities in the river catchment leads to increased rates of soil erosion. This has increased the sediment loads many times over from the natural level. As a result, estuarine and coastal waters are becoming increasingly muddy with associated losses for society in terms of increased flooding and a degradation of the environment, the fisheries and the economic use of these waters. It is suggested that science-based models be used to predict the fate of mud in estuaries and coastal waters when planning development in river catchments, particularly in wet tropical countries. This would help integrate land and water management. Modelling technology is demonstrated by a combination of field and model studies in four turbid tropical estuaries, namely the Fly River in Papua New Guinea, the Mekong River in Vietnam, the Cimanuk River in Indonesia, and Hinchinbrook Channel in Australia. The final model is adapted to local conditions and extensively uses data assimilation especially for open boundary conditions. There can be a feedback between the hydrodynamics and the mud dynamics when the system silts; in wet tropical countries this can occur rapidly, sometimes in only 30 years. Electronic Publication     

2005年秋季长江口及其邻近水域浮游植物群集

采用Utermhl分析方法,对长江口及其邻近水域（30.5° ~ 32.5° N,121.0° ~ 123.5° E）2005年秋季浮游植物进行了分析,并对其与环境之间的关系做了进一步的探讨。结果表明：调查区初步鉴定浮游植物95种（含变种和变型）,硅藻是主要的浮游植物类群,其丰度比例达到93.1%;生态类型多为温带近岸种,少数为暖水种和大洋种;优势种主要为中肋骨条藻〖WTBX〗（Skeletonema costatum）、具槽帕拉藻（Paralia sulcata）、菱形海线藻（Thalassionema nitzschioides）和圆海链藻（Thalassiosira rotula）〖WTBZ〗;浮游植物平均丰度为2.04 cells/mL,高值出现在长江口门偏南水域;Margalef指数、Shannon Wiener指数以及Pielou指数的分布显示：秋季调查区离岸海域浮游植物多样性程度高,物种均一性好。Pearson相关分析结果显示：海水温度和硝酸盐含量是控制调查区浮游植物分布格局的主要环境因子;优势种中肋骨条藻与温度呈极显著负相关,与硝酸盐呈极显著正相关。     

南京紫金山马尾松树轮δ13C对气候变化响应敏感性的研究

树木年轮宽度指标在气候重建中发挥了重要的作用,可是在温暖湿润的地区,利用树木年轮宽度重建古气候遇到了困难。因此寻找其他代用指标就成为一项急迫而重要的任务。一些研究发现,树轮稳定碳同位素可以发挥重要的作用。但是,是否所有的树种的树轮碳同位素对气候的响应都同样的敏感,还需要通过大量的研究分析工作来验证。为了了解温暖湿润的亚热带季风区马尾松树轮δ13C对气候响应的敏感性,选取了南京紫金山的两个马尾松树盘,进行了树轮δ13C的分析,建立了1939~2002和1955~2002年两个树轮δ13C变化序列。与降水、温度、相对湿度、光照时数、风速等气候指标进行了相关分析。结果表明：（1）马尾松树轮δ13C对于气候的响应是敏感的,可以作为气候变化的代用指标;（2）坡向对于马尾松树轮δ13C对气候的响应敏感性也有一定的影响,树轮δ13C平均值西南坡比东南坡高,西南坡比东南坡对月平均最低和最高温度的响应更敏感;（3）紫金山马尾松树轮δ13C与该地区生长季（尤其是夏、秋季）的月平均气温、月平均最高气温和日照时数呈正相关,而与月平均最低气温、降水量、空气相对湿度呈负相关     

淡水超微型浮游植物的生态学及其研究方法概述

对淡水超微型浮游植物的研究方法和生态学进行了概述。为防止细胞的自溶和荧光特性的改变,淡水超微型浮游植物通常采用多聚甲醛和戊二醛作为固定剂并在低温下保存。在表面荧光显微镜下可以观察到含藻红素的蓝藻（PE 细胞）、含藻蓝素的蓝藻（PC细胞）以及以叶绿素为主要色素的超微型真核浮游植物（EU 细胞）3 种类群。在淡水生态系统中，影响超微型浮游植物变化的环境因子主要有温度、营养盐的可获得性、摄食、光照以及环境的污染。总体而言，高温有利于超微型蓝藻、低温利于真核藻类的生长。超微型浮游植物的丰度随着水体的营养增加而增加，但其贡献率却减少。淡水超微型浮游植物的研究主要集中在温带水体，对热带和亚热带水体的研究需要加强，而我国对淡水超微型浮游植物生态学研究基本处于空白。     

厄尔尼诺与华中夏季低温

根据华中地区10个测站1951－1995年7－8月气温资料,采用EOF、遥相关、全盛分析等统计－天气气候学方法,研究了华中夏季温度变化同北太平洋SSTA场的相关结构及北半球500hpa高度场对海温异常的响应。具体描述了ENSO年和Lanina年华中夏季温度距平的差异性。并通过分析冷夏年500hpa高度场的环流特点,探讨海－气间的可能联系及物理机制。结果表明：北太平洋海温与华中夏季温度存在较好的滞后相关关系。ENSO位相对,华中夏季温度偏低,易出现冷夏,拉尼娜年则相反,易出现酷暑。冷夏（酷暑）对应着赤道东太平洋正（负）SSTA,西太平洋副热带海域负（正）SSTA;反映了赤道东太平洋和热带西太平洋之间存在翘翘板效应。海温异常变化超前副高异常变化1－3个月。冷夏年副高主体偏东偏南。     

A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.