PM10 Dispersion Modeling for Treasure Valley,Idaho

ABSTRACT

The recorded exceedances of the 24-hr PM₁₀ National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in Treasure Valley, Idaho, have been associated with prolonged stagnation periods during the winter. A comprehensive modeling study of PM₁₀ impact in Treasure Valley was performed to support the State Implementation Plan (SIP). The study included base-year and short-term episodic conditions. The ISCST3 (Industrial Source Complex Short Term 3) model, using the base-year meteorology and gridded emissions of mobile sources, point sources, and wood burning as input, generally agreed well with measurements in both temporal patterns and annual averages. The WYNDvalley model was evaluated using monitoring data and was used to simulate the PM₁₀ impact for episodic exceedances during stagnant winter conditions. An emission inventory was prepared for a base year (1995) and then extrapolated to the years 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 in order to determine air quality planning requirements. According to the simulations using base-year emissions and meteorology, exceedances are not expected. However, exceedances at some stations could be expected using projected emissions and episodic meteorology. Results from emission control strategies we developed indicate that mobile-source emissions have the most significant impact; reduction of 25% would be needed to eliminate the simulated exceedances in all projected years.     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Which meteorological conditions produce worst-case odors from area sources?

Two competing meteorological factors influence atmospheric concentrations of pollutants from open liquid area sources such as wastewater treatment plant units: temperature and stability. High temperatures in summer produce greater emissions from liquid area sources because of increased compound volatility; however, these emissions tend to disperse more readily because of frequent occurrence of unstable conditions. An opposite scenario occurs in winter, with lesser emissions due to lower temperatures, but also frequently less dispersion, due to stable atmospheric conditions. The primary objective of this modeling study was thus to determine whether higher atmospheric concentrations from open liquid area sources occur more frequently in summer, when emissions are greater but so is dispersion, or in winter, when emissions are lesser but so is dispersion. The study utilized a rectangular clarifier emitting hydrogen sulfide as a sample open liquid area source. Dispersion modeling runs were conducted using ISCST3 and AERMOD, encompassing 5 yr of hourly meteorological data divided by season. Emission rates were varied hourly on the basis of a curve-fit developed from previously collected field data. Model output for each season was used to determine (1) maximum 2-min average concentrations, (2) the number of odor events (2-min average concentrations greater than odor detection thresholds), and (3) areas of impact. On the basis of these 3 types of output, it was found that the worst-case odors were associated with summer, considering impacts of meteorology upon both emissions and dispersion. Not accounting for the impact of meteorology on emissions (using a constant worst-case emission rate) caused concentrations to be overpredicted compared with a variable emission rate case. The highest concentrations occurred during stability classes D, E, and F, as anticipated. A comparison of ISCST3 and AERMOD found that for the area source modeled, ISCST3 predicted higher concentrations and more odor events for all seasons.     

Identification and chemical characterization of industrial particulate matter sources in southwest Spain

A detailed physical and chemical characterization of coarse particulate matter (PM10) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the city of Huelva (in Southwestern Spain) was carried out during 2001 and 2002. To identify the major emission sources with a significant influence on PM10 and PM2.5, a methodology was developed based on the combination of: (1) real-time measurements of levels of PM10, PM2.5, and very fine particulate matter (PM1); (2) chemical characterization and source apportionment analysis of PM10 and PM2.5; and (3) intensive measurements in field campaigns to characterize the emission plumes of several point sources. Annual means of 37, 19, and 16 microg/m3 were obtained for the study period for PM10, PM2.5, and PM1, respectively. High PM episodes, characterized by a very fine grain size distribution, are frequently detected in Huelva mainly in the winter as the result of the impact of the industrial emission plumes on the city. Chemical analysis showed that PM at Huelva is characterized by high PO4(3-) and As levels, as expected from the industrial activities. Source apportionment analyses identified a crustal source (36% of PM10 and 31% of PM2.5); a traffic-related source (33% of PM10 and 29% of PM2.5), and a marine aerosol contribution (only in PM10, 4%). In addition, two industrial emission sources were identified in PM10 and PM2.5: (1) a petrochemical source, 13% in PM10 and 8% in PM2.5; and (2) a mixed metallurgical-phosphate source, which accounts for 11-12% of PM10 and PM2.5. In PM2.5 a secondary source has been also identified, which contributed to 17% of the mass. A complete characterization of industrial emission plumes during their impact on the ground allowed for the identification of tracer species for specific point sources, such as petrochemical, metallurgic, and fertilizer and phosphate production industries.     

Comparative chemical mass closure of fine and coarse aerosols at two sites in south and west Europe: Implications for EU air pollution policies

The chemical composition of PM10 and PM2.5 was studied during summer and winter sampling campaigns in South and West Europe (Barcelona, Spain, and Ghent, Belgium). The chemical composition of the PM10 aerosol was markedly different in the two regions, even at similar PM10 levels. The chemical composition of PM2.5 showed more similarities. The contribution of mineral matter was higher in Barcelona (on average 12% of the PM2.5 mass), whereas the contribution from sea salt was higher in Ghent (4% of PM2.5). Volatilisation of NH₄⁺ from the filters (negative artefact) was observed in both regions, although the extent of this artefact showed regional differences (0–4% and 22–38% of the NH₄⁺ mass in Ghent and Barcelona, respectively) and had no impact on the compliance with EU limit values. The number of exceedances of the PM10 limit value and an arbitrary PM2.5 limit of 25 μg m⁻³ was calculated by subtracting the mineral fraction (natural or anthropogenic in origin) from the bulk PM load, and this resulted in the elimination of the PM10 exceedances in Barcelona, and a reduction of one out of three exceedances in Ghent. The subtraction of sea-salt aerosol had no effect in Barcelona, and it removed one exceedance in each size fraction in Ghent. Exceedances of the PM10 daily limit value in Ghent coincided with back-trajectories originating from Eastern and Southern European regions. The origin of the exceedances in Barcelona during the campaigns was mostly local.     

Deriving fuel-based emission factor thresholds to interpret heavy-duty vehicle roadside plume measurements

Remote sensing devices have been used for decades to measure gaseous emissions from individual vehicles at the roadside. Systems have also been developed that entrain diluted exhaust and can also measure particulate matter (PM) emissions. In 2015, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) reported that 8% of in-field diesel particulate filters (DPF) on heavy-duty (HD) vehicles were malfunctioning and emitted about 70% of total diesel PM emissions from the DPF-equipped fleet. A new high-emitter problem in the heavy-duty vehicle fleet had emerged. Roadside exhaust plume measurements reflect a snapshot of real-world operation, typically lasting several seconds. In order to relate roadside plume measurements to laboratory emission tests, we analyzed carbon dioxide (CO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NO_X), and PM emissions collected from four HD vehicles during several driving cycles on a chassis dynamometer. We examined the fuel-based emission factors corresponding to possible exceedances of emission standards as a function of vehicle power. Our analysis suggests that a typical HD vehicle will exceed the model year (MY) 2010 emission standards (of 0.2 g NO_X/bhp-hr and 0.01 g PM/bhp-hr) by three times when fuel-based emission factors are 9.3 g NO_X/kg fuel and 0.11 g PM/kg using the roadside plume measurement approach. Reported limits correspond to 99% confidence levels, which were calculated using the detection uncertainty of emissions analyzers, accuracy of vehicle power calculations, and actual emissions variability of fixed operational parameters. The PM threshold was determined for acceleration events between 0.47 and 1.4 mph/sec only, and the NO_X threshold was derived from measurements where after-treatment temperature was above 200°C. Anticipating a growing interest in real-world driving emissions, widespread implementation of roadside exhaust plume measurements as a compliment to in-use vehicle programs may benefit from expanding this analysis to a larger sample of in-use HD vehicles.

Implications: Regulatory agencies, civil society, and the public at large have a growing interest in vehicle emission compliance in the real world. Leveraging roadside plume measurements to identify vehicles with malfunctioning emission control systems is emerging as a viable new and useful method to assess in-use performance. This work proposes fuel-based emission factor thresholds for PM and NOx that signify exceedances of emission standards on a work-specific basis by analyzing real-time emissions in the laboratory. These thresholds could be used to prescreen vehicles before roadside enforcement inspection or other inquiry, enhance and further develop emission inventories, and potentially develop new requirements for heavy-duty inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, including but not limited to identifying vehicles for further testing.     

Monitoring and source apportionment of particulate matter near a large phosphorus production facility

A source apportionment study was conducted to identify sources within a large elemental phosphorus plant that contribute to exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for 24-hr PM10. Ambient data were collected at three monitoring sites from October 1996 through July 1999, and included the following: 24-hr PM10 mass, 24-hr PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 mass and chemistry, continuous PM10 and PM2.5 mass, continuous meteorological data, and wind-direction-resolved PM2.5 and PM10 mass and chemistry. Ambient-based receptor modeling and wind-directional analysis were employed to help identify major sources or source locations and source contributions. Fine-fraction phosphate was the dominant species observed during PM10 exceedances, though in general, resuspended coarse dusts from raw and processed materials at the plant were also needed to create an exceedance. Major sources that were identified included the calciners, the CO flares, process-related dust, and electric-arc furnace operations.     

Fine particle concentrations and composition during wintertime inversions in Logan,Utah, USA

During Winter 2004, a series of elevated PM_2.5 events occurred in Logan, Utah, coinciding with strong winter inversions. This period resulted in 17 exceedances of the 24-h PM_2.5 standard, and some of the highest PM_2.5 mass loadings recorded in the United States, including 9 days of 24-h PM_2.5 measurements over 100 μg m⁻³. During the 3-month period, we monitored the size and mass concentrations of airborne particles using an aerosol mass spectrometer. PM_2.5 concentrations were dominated by the formation of ammonium nitrate, accounting for over 50% of the non-refractory aerosol matter throughout the study and 80% on the highest pollution days. Another 15–20% of the particulate matter was composed of organic carbon. The high particle concentration loadings in Utah's Cache Valley result from a combination of unfavorable meteorology dominated by a severe cold-temperature inversion, a mix of rural and urban emission sources, and a confined geographical area. As a rapidly growing formerly rural area, the Cache Valley is representative of future air pollution problems facing areas of the interior west undergoing rapid urbanization.     

Particulate emissions from construction activities

Although it has long been recognized that road and building construction activity constitutes an important source of particulate matter (PM) emissions throughout the United States, until recently only limited research has been directed to its characterization. This paper presents the results of PM10 and PM2.5 (particles < or = 10 microm and < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter, respectively) emission factor development from the onsite testing of component operations at actual construction sites during the period 1998-2001. Much of the testing effort was directed at earthmoving operations with scrapers, because earthmoving is the most important contributor of PM emissions across the construction industry. Other sources tested were truck loading and dumping of crushed rock and mud and dirt carryout from construction site access points onto adjacent public paved roads. Also tested were the effects of watering for control of scraper travel routes and the use of paved and graveled aprons at construction site access points for reducing mud and dirt carryout. The PM10 emissions from earthmoving were found to be up to an order of magnitude greater than predicted by AP-42 emission factors drawn from other industries. As expected, the observed PM2.5:PM10 emission factor ratios reflected the relative importance of the vehicle exhaust and the resuspended dust components of each type of construction activity. An unexpected finding was that PM2.5 emissions from mud and dirt carryout were much less than anticipated. Finally, the control efficiency of watering of scraper travel routes was found to closely follow a bilinear moisture model.     

Seasonal variations in the chemical composition of particulate matter: a case study in the Po Valley. Part I: macro-components and mass closure

The seasonal variability in the mass concentration and chemical composition of atmospheric particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) was studied during a 2-year field study carried out between 2010 and 2012. The site of the study was the area of Ferrara (Po Valley, Northern Italy), which is characterized by frequent episodes of very stable atmospheric conditions in winter. Chemical analyses carried out during the study allowed the determination of the main components of atmospheric PM (macro-elements, ions, elemental carbon, organic matter) and a satisfactory mass closure was obtained. Accordingly, chemical components could be grouped into the main macro-sources of PM: soil, sea spray, inorganic compounds from secondary reactions, vehicular emission, organics from domestic heating, organics from secondary formation, and other sources. The more significant seasonal variations were observed for secondary inorganic species in the fine fraction of PM; these species were very sensitive to air mass age and thus to the frequency of stable atmospheric conditions. During the winter ammonium nitrate, the single species with the highest concentration, reached concentrations as high as 30 μg/m³. The intensity of natural sources was fairly constant during the year; increases in natural aerosols were linked to medium and long-range transport episodes. The ratio of winter to summer concentrations was roughly 2 for combustion product, close to 3 for secondary inorganic species, and between 2 and 3 for organics. The winter increase of organics was due to poorer atmospheric dispersion and to the addition of the emission from domestic heating. A similar winter to summer ratio (around 3) was observed for the fine fraction of PM.     

Origin of the exceedances of the European daily PM limit value in regional background areas of Spain

The origin of the daily exceedances of 50 μg PM10 m⁻³ (daily limit value or DLV of the EU air quality directive) and of an arbitrary daily value (DV) 35 μg PM2.5 m⁻³ recorded in 2001–2003 in 13 regional background stations of the Iberian Peninsula were interpreted. This was carried out by means of back-trajectory analysis, available PM model outputs, satellite data and meteorological maps. This allows the detection of high PM episodes on a regional scale and the study of their seasonal and geographical variability.The number of exceedances of the PM10 DLV ranged in 2001–2003 from 6 to 41 depending on the monitoring site. For the selected PM2.5 DV, the range of daily exceedances was 0–10 in the study period.The majority of the PM10 (>70% in most stations) and PM2.5 (17–55% in most stations) exceedances in regional background monitoring stations are caused by African dust outbreaks. These exceedances were less frequent in winter than in summer due to: (a) the frequent long range transport of dust in the warm seasons over Iberia, (b) the re-suspension associated with convective atmospheric dynamics, and (c) the relative low rainfall favouring re-suspension and high residence time of PM. Moreover, a regional contribution of secondary aerosols derived from the efficient photochemical transformation of gaseous precursors may coincide with African transport in summer.Episodes with lack of advective conditions caused 2–29% and 20–50% of the PM10 and PM2.5 exceedances. These occurred mainly in summer due to poor renovation of air masses, increased convective re-suspension, dispersion of pollutants towards rural areas and regional re-circulation and aging of air masses which result in the proliferation of secondary inorganic species.Long-range transport of PM from continental Europe caused exceedances (9–40% and 18–38% of the PM10 and PM2.5 exceedances, respectively), only in northern Iberia because, as the European air masses evolve towards the south, the pollutants suffer dispersion/dilution. Local exceedances are associated with the advection of the clean Atlantic air masses, which cannot increase PM levels to a great extent without the influence of a local source of PM. The proportion of local exceedances of PM10 and PM2.5 ranged 6–33% and 17–40%, respectively.     

Trends in primary particulate matter emissions from Canadian agriculture

Particulate matter (PM) has long been recognized as an air pollutant due to its adverse health and environmental impacts. As emission of PM from agricultural operations is an emerging air quality issue, the Agricultural Particulate Matter Emissions Indicator (APMEI) has been developed to estimate the primary PM contribution to the atmosphere from agricultural operations on Census years and to assess the impact of practices adopted to mitigate these emissions at the soil landscape polygon scale as part of the agri-environmental indicator report series produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. In the APMEI, PM emissions from animal feeding operations, wind erosion, land preparation, crop harvest, fertilizer and chemical application, grain handling, and pollen were calculated and compared for the Census years of 1981-2006. In this study, we present the results for PM10 and PM2.5, which exclude chemical application and pollen sources as they only contribute to total suspended particles. In 2006, PM emissions from agricultural operations were estimated to be 652.6 kt for PM10 and 158.1 kt for PM2.5. PM emissions from wind erosion and land preparation account for most of PM emissions from agricultural operations in Canada, contributing 82% of PM10 and 76% of PM2.5 in 2006. Results from the APMEI show a strong reduction in PM emissions from agricultural operations between 1981 and 2006, with a decrease of 40% (442.8 kt) for PM10 and 47% (137.7 kt) for PM2.5. This emission reduction is mainly attributed to the adoption of conservation tillage and no-till practices and the reduction in the area of summer fallow land.     

Variability of atmospheric aerosol and ozone concentrations at marine, urban, and high-altitude monitoring stations in southern Italy during the 2007 summer Saharan dust outbreaks and wildfire episodes

In order to evaluate the spatial variation of aerosol (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm [PM10]) and ozone (03) concentrations and characterize the atmospheric conditions that lead to 03 and PM10-rich episodes in southern Italy during summer 2007, an intensive sampling campaign was simultaneously performed, from middle of July to the end of August, at three ground-based sites (marine, urban, and high-altitude monitoring stations) in Calabria region. A cluster analysis, based on the prevailing air mass backward trajectories, was performed, allowing to discriminate the contribution of different air masses origin and paths. Results showed that both PM10 and 03 levels reached similar high values when air masses originated from the industrialized continental Europe as well as under the influence of wildfire emissions. Among natural sources, dust intrusion and wildfire events seem to involve a marked impact on the recorded data. Typical fair weather of Mediterranean summer and persisting anticyclone system at synoptic scale were indeed favorable conditions to the arrival of heavily dust-loaded air masses over three periods of consecutive days and more than half of the observed PM10 daily exceedances have been attributed to Saharan dust events. During the identified dust outbreaks, a consistent increase in PM10 levels with a concurrent decrease in 03 values was also observed and discussed.     

Implementation of a windblown dust parameterization into MODELS-3/CMAQ: Application to episodic PM events in the US/Mexico border

Windblown dust is known to impede visibility, deteriorate air quality and modify the radiation budget. Arid and semiarid areas with unpaved and unvegetated land cover are particularly prone to windblown dust, which is often attributed to high particulate matter (PM) pollution in such areas. Yet, windblown dust is poorly represented in existing regulatory air quality models. In a study by the authors on modeling episodic high PM events along the US/Mexico border using the state-of-the-art CMAQ/MM5/SMOKE air quality modeling system [Choi, Y.-J., Hyde, P., Fernando, H.J.S., 2006. Modeling of episodic particulate matter events using a 3D air quality model with fine grid: applications to a pair of cities in the US/Mexico border. Atmospheric Environment 40, 5181–5201], some of the observed PM₁₀ NAAQS exceedances were inferred as due to windblown dust, but the modeling system was incapable of dealing with time-dependent episodic dust entrainment during high wind periods. In this paper, a time-dependent entrainment parameterization for windblown dust is implemented in the CMAQ/MM5/SMOKE modeling system with the hope of improving PM predictions. An approach for realizing windblown dust emission flux for each grid cell over the study domain on an hourly basis, which accounts for the influence of factors such as soil moisture content, atmospheric stability and wind speed, is presented in detail. Comparison of model predictions with observational data taken at a pair of US/Mexico border towns shows a clear improvement of model performance upon implementation of the dust emission flux parameterization.     

Particulate emissions from U.S. Department of Defense artillery backblast testing

There is a dearth of information on dust emissions from sources that are unique to the U.S. Department of Defense testing and training activities. However, accurate emissions factors are needed for these sources so that military installations can prepare accurate particulate matter (PM) emission inventories. One such source, coarse and fine PM (PM10 and PM2.5) emissions from artillery backblast testing on improved gun positions, was characterized at the Yuma Proving Ground near Yuma, AZ, in October 2005. Fugitive emissions are created by the shockwave from artillery pieces, which ejects dust from the surface on which the artillery is resting. Other contributions of PM can be attributed to the combustion of the propellants. For a 155-mm howitzer firing a range of propellant charges or zones, amounts of emitted PM10 ranged from -19 g of PM10 per firing event for a zone 1 charge to 92 g of PM10 per firing event for a zone 5. The corresponding rates for PM2.5 were approximately 9 g of PM2.5 and 49 g of PM2.5 per firing. The average measured emission rates for PM1o and PM2.5 appear to scale with the zone charge value. The measurements show that the estimated annual contributions of PM10 (52.2 t) and PM2.5 (28.5 t) from artillery backblast are insignificant in the context of the 2002 U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) PM emission inventory. Using national-level activity data for artillery fire, the most conservative estimate is that backblast would contribute the equivalent of 5 x 10(-4) % and 1.6 x 10(-3)% of the annual total PM10 and PM2.5 fugitive dust contributions, respectively, based on 2002 EPA inventory data.     

Effects of improved spatial and temporal modeling of on-road vehicle emissions

Numerous emission and air quality modeling studies have suggested the need to accurately characterize the spatial and temporal variations in on-road vehicle emissions. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact that using detailed traffic activity data has on emission estimates used to model air quality impacts. The on-road vehicle emissions are estimated by multiplying the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by the fleet-average emission factors determined by road link and hour of day. Changes in the fraction of VMT from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) can have a significant impact on estimated fleet-average emissions because the emission factors for HDDV nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are much higher than those for light-duty gas vehicles (LDGVs). Through detailed road link-level on-road vehicle emission modeling, this work investigated two scenarios for better characterizing mobile source emissions: (1) improved spatial and temporal variation of vehicle type fractions, and (2) use of Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2010) instead of MOBILE6 exhaust emission factors. Emissions were estimated for the Detroit and Atlanta metropolitan areas for summer and winter episodes. The VMT mix scenario demonstrated the importance of better characterizing HDDV activity by time of day, day of week, and road type. More HDDV activity occurs on restricted access road types on weekdays and at nonpeak times, compared to light-duty vehicles, resulting in 5-15% higher NOx and PM emission rates during the weekdays and 15-40% lower rates on weekend days. Use of MOVES2010 exhaust emission factors resulted in increases of more than 50% in NOx and PM for both HDDVs and LDGVs, relative to MOBILE6. Because LDGV PM emissions have been shown to increase with lower temperatures, the most dramatic increase from MOBILE6 to MOVES2010 emission rates occurred for PM2.5 from LDGVs that increased 500% during colder wintertime conditions found in Detroit, the northernmost city modeled.     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley,USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM_2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest under growth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources.

Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using “as-planned” (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM_2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event.

Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM_2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Influence of regional development policies and clean technology adoption on future air pollution exposure

Future air pollution emissions in the year 2030 were estimated for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in central California using a combined system of land use, mobile, off-road, stationary, area, and biogenic emissions models. Four scenarios were developed that use different assumptions about the density of development and level of investment in transportation infrastructure to accommodate the expected doubling of the SJV population in the next 20 years. Scenario 1 reflects current land-use patterns and infrastructure while scenario 2 encouraged compact urban footprints including redevelopment of existing urban centers and investments in transit. Scenario 3 allowed sprawling development in the SJV with reduced population density in existing urban centers and construction of all planned freeways. Scenario 4 followed currently adopted land use and transportation plans for the SJV. The air quality resulting from these urban development scenarios was evaluated using meteorology from a winter stagnation event that occurred on December 15th, 2000 to January 7th 2001. Predicted base-case PM2.5 mass concentrations within the region exceeded 35 μg m^?3 over the 22-day episode. Compact growth reduced the PM2.5 concentrations by ～1 μg m^?3 relative to the base-case over most of the SJV with the exception of increases (～1 μg m^?3) in urban centers driven by increased concentrations of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). Low-density development increased the PM2.5 concentrations by 1–4 μg m^?3 over most of the region, with decreases (0.5–2 μg m^?3) around urban areas. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were very similar for all development scenarios ranging between 16 and 17.4 μg m^?3. Exposure to primary PM components such as EC and OC increased 10–15% for high density development scenarios and decreased by 11–19% for low-density scenarios. Patterns for secondary PM components such as nitrate and ammonium ion were almost exactly reversed, with a 10% increase under low-density development and a 5% decrease under high density development. The increased human exposure to primary pollutants such as EC and OC could be predicted using a simplified analysis of population-weighted primary emissions. Regional planning agencies should develop thresholds of population-weighted primary emissions exposure to guide the development of growth plans. This metric will allow them to actively reduce the potential negative impacts of compact growth while preserving the benefits.     

Particulate matter,nitrogen oxides,ozone, and select volatile organic compounds during a winter sampling period in Logan,Utah, USA

Particulate matter mass (PM), trace gaseous pollutants, and select volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with meteorological variables were measured in Logan, Utah (Cache Valley), for >4 weeks during winter 2017 as part of the Utah Winter Fine Particle Study (UWFPS). Higher PM levels for short time periods and lower ozone (O₃) levels were present due to meteorological and mountain valley conditions. Nitrogenous pollutants were relatively strongly correlated with PM variables. Diurnal cycles of NO_x, O₃, and fine PM(PM 2.5) (aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm [PM_2.5]) suggested formation from NO_x. O₃ levels increased from early morning into midafternoon, and NO_x and PM_2.5 increased throughout the morning, followed by sharp decreases. Toluene/benzene and xylenes/benzene ratios and VOC correlations with nitrogenous and PM species were indicative of local traffic sources. Wind sector comparisons suggested that pollutant levels were lower when winds were from nearby mountains to the east versus winds from northerly or southerly origins.

Implications: The Cache Valley in Idaho and Utah has been designated a PM_2.5 nonattainment area that has been attributed to air pollution buildup during winter stagnation events. To inform state implementation plans for PM_2.5 in Cache Valley and other PM_2.5 nonattainment areas in Utah, a state and multiagency federal research effort known as the UWFPS was conducted in winter 2017. As part of the UWFPS, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measured ground-based PM species and their precursors, VOCs, and meteorology in Logan, Utah. Results reported here from the EPA study in Logan provide additional understanding of wintertime air pollution conditions and possible sources of PM and gaseous pollutants as well as being useful for future PM control strategies in this area.