Dynamic material flow analysis of steel resources in Korea

Material flow analysis (MFA) is an evaluation technique that systematically identifies the flows and stocks of materials within predefined spatial and temporal boundaries. In this paper, the steel resources in Korea are investigated using dynamic MFA. Iron ore and steel scrap are added as raw material components during the production processes of steel, which is then used in a variety of product groups such as construction products, transportation equipment, machinery/metal products, electrical/electronic devices, and other products through fabrication and manufacturing processes. When such product groups are discarded, they are either recycled or landfilled. With consideration for the lifetimes of various product groups in conjunction with steel resource flows in Korea, dynamic MFA is conducted on the flows of steel stock change and annual scrap generation. By 2020, these two flows are expected to increase by as much as 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to 2008, with transportation equipment, in particular, envisaged to experience high growth. At the current recycling rate, however, it will be hard to meet future scrap demand. According to the scenario analysis, 100% of this future scrap demand can be supplied domestically if the recycling rate is increased to over 70% for all product groups, except construction products and transportation equipment, which already have high recycling rates. By 2020, the reduction in scrap importation costs is projected to offer a financial gain of 2.3 billion dollars.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

The Austrian silver cycle: A material flow analysis

Silver (Ag) is a precious metal of increasing importance. Besides its classical use as a valuable, it is applied in an increasing number of industrial products due to its advantageous chemical properties. As silver is considered a non-renewable resource, it is becoming more and more relevant for individual countries to gain a better understanding of their domestic silver material flows. In our study, a material flow analysis (MFA) of silver in Austria for the period 2012 was carried out, the results of which reveal the major silver flows in the country as well as the imports and exports outside the country. As there is no extraction of silver ore in Austria, the country is depending on silver imports and recycling. Furthermore, the role of the silver coin production that is of considerable importance in Austria is highlighted. The results may help, on a policy level, to determine silver use indicators and support the development of strategies for resource, waste and environmental management of silver. On a modeling level, the results may function as an example for future silver MFA studies in different countries.     

In-depth analysis of aluminum flows in Austria as a basis to increase resource efficiency

Based on the method of material flow analysis (MFA), a static model of Austrian aluminum (Al) flows in 2010 was developed. Extensive data research on Al production, consumption, trade and waste management was conducted and resulted in a detailed model of national Al resources. Data uncertainty was considered in the model based on the application of a rigorous concept for data quality assessment. The model results indicated that the growth of the Austrian “in-use” Al stock amounts to 11 ± 3.1 kg yr⁻¹ cap⁻¹. The total “in-use” Al stock was determined using a bottom-up approach, which produced an estimate of 260 kg Al cap⁻¹. Approximately 7 ± 1 kg of Al yr⁻¹ cap⁻¹ of old scrap was generated in 2010, of which 20% was not recovered because of losses in waste management processes. Quantitatively, approximately 40% of the total scrap input to secondary Al production originated from net imports, highlighting the import dependency of Austrian Al refiners and remelters. Uncertainties in the calculation of recycling indicators for the Austrian Al system with high shares of foreign scrap trade were exemplarily illustrated for the old scrap ratio (OSR) in secondary Al production, resulting in a possible range of OSRs between 0 and 66%. Overall, the detailed MFA in this study provides a basis to identify resource potentials as well as resource losses in the national Al system, and it will serve as a starting point for a dynamic Al model to be developed in the future.     

连续流动分析法测定水中总氮的不确定度评定

在实验室分析基础上,对连续流动分析法测定水中总氮过程的不确定度进行评定。本文建立了数学模型,对不确定度来源进行了分析,并计算了不确定度分量、合成不确定度及扩展不确定度,最后给出了总氮测量结果的标准表示方法。     

Country-scale phosphorus balancing as a base for resources conservation

In order to effectively conserve the non-renewable resource phosphorus (P), flows and stocks of P must be known at national, regional and global scales. P is a key non-renewable resource because its use as fertilizer cannot be substituted posing a constraint on the global food production in the long-term. This paper presents a methodology to establish country-wide P balances that emphasises resource use. We develop a material flow analysis (MFA) model that comprises all relevant flows and stocks of P in five subsystems, seven processes and 36 material flows. For quantification, statistical data from economic and agricultural sources as well as available information about P partitioning in natural and anthropogenic processes are used. Special attention is paid to data gaps and uncertainties. The model was tested in two case studies on P management in Turkey and Austria. MFA appears to be a tool well suited for establishing country-wide P balances, provided that national statistics are well-structured and accessible. If a common approach is used for modelling P-flows and stocks, regional and national balances can be compared and linked towards larger scale P balances for an improved management of the resource.     

Material flow analysis of paper in Korea. Part I. Data calculation model from the flow relationships between paper products

The flows of paper are analyzed throughout the papermaking processes, with the year 2007 and Korea defined as the system boundaries. In practice, the statistical data on the production, import and export of paper or pulp can be collected with relative ease from the government and industrial associations. However, the input data regarding the volumes of pulp and wastepaper used in different paper products, such as newsprint, printing papers, sanitary and household papers, specialty papers, and corrugating board base, are difficult to obtain because such information is generally kept confidential in the course of corporate operations.The production processes of paper products in Korea are modeled using information on raw materials, their compositions and production yields of products in order to identify and quantify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper used in each paper product. The material flows of paper are then analyzed based on the calculation model derived from the correlation of input and output flows between the individual processes throughout the entire paper lifecycle. Accuracy analysis using both mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is conducted to verify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper calculated from the proposed model against the volumes of domestically consumed pulp and wastepaper provided in the national statistics. Although the calculated values for the past (i.e., the 1980s and 1990s) differ to some degree from the statistical values, the data for the 2000s have a relatively higher level of accuracy, with the MAPE of the total pulp and recycling volume at 5.39% and 5.30%, respectively, thus validating the adequacy of the proposed modeling method. The proposed calculation model can be effectively used in the material flow analysis (MFA) of paper to reduce the burden of data collection and obtain relatively accurate results.     

Prairie strips reduce fecal indicator bacteria concentrations in simulated runoff

Vegetative filter strips (VFS) have shown promising results in reducing the downstream transport of many agroecosystem contaminants. A recently developed type of VFS, prairie strips, has been shown to significantly reduce the impact of corn and soybean production systems on water quality in terms of sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus losses. This study assessed potential additional benefits of prairie strips to include the reduction of pathogens. To assess the impact of prairie strips on manure-laden agricultural runoff, we utilized a physical model of prairie strips in a laboratory flume to conduct highly controlled overland flow experiments. Escherichia coli and Enterococcus concentration reductions of up to 45% and 65% were observed for runoff and infiltration flows, respectively, while mass load reductions of up to 65% were observed for surficial runoff flows. The degree of concentration or mass load reductions was dependent on the residence time of the flow within the strip and the partitioning of overland flow running onto the strip to infiltration and runoff flows. Based on our results and a review of the literature, we developed a design method to provide guidance on the width of prairie strip buffer needed to achieve a user-defined reduction of fecal bacteria concentration.     

Material flow analysis for a sustainable resource management in island ecosystems

The Galapagos Archipelago (Ecuador) is one of the most well-known natural sites in the world for its unique biodiversity. This sensitive ecosystem is at risk due to a problematic equilibrium between its conservation policy and development demand. To contribute to implementing integrated sustainable resource management in the Galapagos Islands, a material flow analysis (MFA) of Santa Cruz – the island with the highest anthropic pressure in the archipelago – has been performed, outlining a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the direct flow of goods throughout the system. MFA outcomes have been used to evaluate and forecast the impact of some policies and strategies on the local system, focusing in particular on fossil fuel consumption and local agricultural production. This case study stresses the need to introduce a local MFA protocol to decision-makers’ toolbox, as it provides quantitative assessments on a broad spectrum of local development issues.     

COMPUTING THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH WASTELOAD) ALLOCATION MODELING1

ABSTRACT: The risks associated with a traditional wasteload allocation (WLA) analysis were quantified with data from a recent study of the Upper Trinity River (Texas). Risk is define here as the probability of failing to meet an established in-stream water quality standard. The QUAL-TX dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality model was modified to a Monte Carlo framework. Flow augmentation coding was also modified to allow an exact match to be computed between the predicted and an established DO concentration standard, thereby providing an avenue for linking input parameter uncertainty to the assignment of a wasteload permit (allowable mass loading rate). Monte Carlo simulation techniques were employed to propagate input parameter uncertainties, typically encountered during WLA analysis, to the computed effluent five-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand requirements for a single major wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The risk of failing to meet an established in-stream DO criterion may be as high as 96 percent. The uncertainty associated with estimation of the future total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentration for a single tributary was found to have the greatest impact on the determination of allowable WWTP loadings.     

CALIBRATION AND APPLICATION OF QUAL-II TO THE LOWER WINOOSKI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: A modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's QUAL-II water quality simulation model is calibrated and applied to the Lower Winooski River, Vermont. The river flows through the metropolitan Burlington area and is impacted by several industrial and municipal point sources and by operation of hydropower facilities. Several structural modifications are made in the model to improve water quality simulations in rivers impacted by algal growth; these include the addition of organic nitrogen and organic phosphorus compartments and provision for algal uptake of ammonia and/or nitrate nitrogen. The model is interfaced with statistical programs which facilitate tabulation, display, and analysis of observed and predicted concentrations. The model is calibrated and tested against data from two intensive water quality surveys. Applications demonstrate the factors controlling water quality and sensitivities to point source waste management strategies and flow, as influenced by hydropower operations.     

Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of Nitrogen Loading to Estuaries for Research, Planning, and Risk Assessment

Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr⁻¹. The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12–14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumeration of combinations produces a more reliable distribution of risk.     

Minimum Wet‐Season Flows and Levels in Southwest Florida Rivers1

Abstract: Regulation of river flows can result in decreased stage fluctuations and alteration of inundation patterns of floodplain wetlands. However, floodplain inundation has historically not been addressed in most minimum flow determinations. Florida law requires the water management districts of the state to establish minimum flows and levels to protect water bodies from significant harm associated with water withdrawals. The Southwest Florida Water Management District utilizes a 15% reduction in habitat criterion as a threshold for defining significant harm to freshwater segments of rivers. Utilizing a multi‐parameter approach and different habitat measures for seasonal flow periods, the District has recommended minimum flow compliance standards for the Alafia, Myakka and middle Peace rivers. For the high‐flow period, the District utilized a 15% reduction in the number of days of floodplain inundation (a temporal loss) as a significant harm threshold. This approach yielded allowable flow reductions of 8% for the Alafia and Peace rivers during the high‐flow season and a 7% allowable reduction of natural flows on the Myakka River. Comparison of changes in flows associated with temporal and spatial loss thresholds indicated that flow reductions required to effect a 15% spatial loss of habitat on the Alafia, Myakka and middle Peace rivers are higher than those that would yield a 15% temporal loss. This indicates that with respect to natural flow protection, the District’s consideration of temporal reductions in habitat for establishing minimum river flows for seasonal high‐flow periods is more conservative than the use of a spatial loss criterion.     

Evaluation of Existing and Modified Wetland Equations in the SWAT Model

The ability to accurately simulate flow and nutrient removal in treatment wetlands within an agricultural, watershed‐scale model is needed to develop effective plans for meeting nutrient reduction goals associated with protection of drinking water supplies and reduction of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. The objectives of this study were to incorporate new equations for wetland hydrology and nutrient removal in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), compare model performance using original and improved equations, and evaluate the ramifications of errors in watershed and tile drain simulation on prediction of NO₃‐N dynamics in wetlands. The modified equations produced Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.88 to 0.99 for daily NO₃‐N load predictions, and percent bias values generally less than 6%. However, statistical improvement over the original equations was marginal and both old and new equations provided accurate simulations. The new equations reduce the model's dependence on detailed monitoring data and hydrologic calibration. Additionally, the modified equations increase SWAT's versatility by incorporating a weir equation and an irreducible nutrient concentration and temperature coefficient. Model improvements enhance the utility of SWAT for simulating flow and nutrients in wetlands and other impoundments, although performance is limited by the accuracy of inflow and NO₃‐N predictions from the contributing watershed. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

A method for regional-scale material flow and decoupling analysis: A demonstration case study of Aichi prefecture, Japan

We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in a prefecture and have calculated environmental indicators for a prefecture. Material flow analysis (MFA) is important to clarify the structure of a regional society and obtain environmental indicators for a circular society. However, MFA has not advanced in local governments because of few local statistics. We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000 using an input–output (I–O) table and statistics of Aichi. We have verified the accuracy of this method by comparing its results for 2000 which calculated on the basis of official I–O table for 1995 with the I–O table data for 2000; the correlation coefficient obtained in this case is greater than 0.95. Moreover, by performing MFA, we have estimated the resource consumption and decoupling indicator of each industry in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000. We could obtain more detailed and accurate environmental indicators by using our method. From these results, we could estimate the progress of Aichi prefecture towards a circular society.     

A method for regional-scale material flow and decoupling analysis: A demonstration case study of Aichi prefecture,Japan

We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in a prefecture and have calculated environmental indicators for a prefecture. Material flow analysis (MFA) is important to clarify the structure of a regional society and obtain environmental indicators for a circular society. However, MFA has not advanced in local governments because of few local statistics. We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000 using an input–output (I–O) table and statistics of Aichi. We have verified the accuracy of this method by comparing its results for 2000 which calculated on the basis of official I–O table for 1995 with the I–O table data for 2000; the correlation coefficient obtained in this case is greater than 0.95. Moreover, by performing MFA, we have estimated the resource consumption and decoupling indicator of each industry in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000. We could obtain more detailed and accurate environmental indicators by using our method. From these results, we could estimate the progress of Aichi prefecture towards a circular society.     

Material flow and industrial demand for palladium in Korea

Material flow analysis (MFA) requires the use of reliable data. In intermediate or the end industries that lack field survey data or actual statistical data, the integrated material flow analysis methodology uses bottom–up flow analysis for primary and secondary resources, and top–down flow analysis for the distribution structure. By combining the advantages of the top–down and bottom–up methods, the Integrated Material flow Analysis Methodology (IMFAM) can overcome the limitations of each methodology. Using the IMFAM, this study surveyed the material flow of palladium, and a platinoid element used in Korea. Palladium is produced as a byproduct in the copper refining process in Korea, and about 80% of used palladium as a three-way catalyst (TWC), i.e., an exhaust gas purifying system for automobiles. As automobile production in Korea is expected to continually increase, the usage of palladium is also expected to increase. Moreover, the increase in the use of printed circuit board (PCB) plating solutions is expected to further increase the use of palladium.This MFA results well represent the flow of palladium in Korea and give a strategy to secure palladium steadily.     

The use of material flow analysis and the ecological footprint in regional policy-making: application and insights from Northern Ireland

This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the use of resource accounting tools in regional policy-making. The Northern Limits project applied material flow analysis (MFA) and ecological footprinting (EF) to regional policy-making in Northern Ireland over a number of years. The early phase of the research informed the regions first sustainable development strategy which was published in 2006 with key targets relating to the EF and improving the resource efficiency of the economy. Phase II identified the next steps required to address data availability and quality and the use of MFA and EF in providing a measurement and monitoring framework for the strategy and the development of the strategy implementation plan. The use of MFA and EF in sustainable regional policy-making and the monitoring of its implementation is an ongoing process which has raised a number of research issues which can inform the ongoing application and development of these and other resource accounting tools to within Northern Ireland, provide insights for their use in other regions, and help set out the priorities for research to support this important policy area.     

Environmental impact of irrigation in la violada district (Spain): I. Salt export patterns

Salt loading in irrigation return flows contributes to the salinization of the receiving water bodies, particularly when originated in salt-affected areas as frequently found in the middle Ebro River basin (Spain). We determined the salt loading in La Violada Gully from the total dissolved solids (TDS) and flows (Q) during the 1995 to 1998 hydrological years. Since this gully collects flows from various sources, an end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) was performed to quantify the drainage flow from La Violada Irrigation District (VID). Three flow components were identified in La Violada Gully: drainage waters from VID (Qd); tail-waters from irrigation ditches, spill-over, and seepage from the Monegros Canal (Qo); and ground water inflows (Qg) originating in the dryland watershed. Gypsum in the soils of VID was the main source for salts in La Violada Gully (flow-weighted mean TDS=1720 mg L-1, dominated by sulfate and calcium). The contribution of Qg to the total gully flow during the 1996 irrigation season was low (6.5% of the total flow). The 1995 to 1998 annual salt load average in La Violada Gully was 78 628 Mg, 71% of which was exported during the irrigation season. The 1995 to 1998 irrigation season salt load average in Qd was 43 015 Mg (77% of the total load). Thus, irrigated agriculture in VID was the main source of salt loading in this gully, with a yield of 11.1 Mg of salts per hectare of irrigated land for the irrigation season. Efficient irrigation systems and irrigation management practices that reduce Qd are key factors for controlling off-site salt pollution of these gypsum-rich irrigated areas.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.