Effect of water harvesting on growth of young olive trees in degraded Syrian dryland

Olive (Olea europaea L.) is a drought-tolerant tree which is usually grown in areas with a Mediterranean climate that receive >350 mm of annual rainfall. However, olive growing in Syria has recently expanded into drier areas (200–300 mm annual rainfall) where irrigation resources are limited. This study, carried out between November 2002 and October 2005, aimed to investigate the response of a little known Syrian drought-tolerant olive variety (Qaisi) to water harvesting and limited summer irrigation (200 l per tree) in an arid area (average annual rainfall of 210 mm) with Mediterranean climate in Syria. Soil moisture and growth of four-year-old trees were monitored regularly. Olive leaves were sampled at different stages to determine water content, specific mass, and N content. Stomatal conductance was also measured in 2005. Our results showed that water harvesting and summer irrigation improved soil moisture content, leaf water content (up to 36% higher in Sep. 2003), leaf N content (up to 45% higher in Aug. 2003), leaf stomatal conductance (up to 55% higher in Apr. 2005), and relative trunk growth rate. Water harvesting was most successful in wet years, although the water storage capacity was not enough to retain all harvested water. This study indicated that it is possible to grow drought-tolerant olive varieties in arid areas under little or no irrigation, but proper water and nutrient management should be considered for sustainable growth.     

Range contraction and loss of genetic variation of the Pyrenean endemic newt <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calotriton asper</Emphasis> due to climate change

Many studies have identified climate warming to be among the most important threats to biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on species with low genetic diversity, ectothermic physiology, small ranges, low effective populations sizes, specific habitat requirements and limited dispersal capabilities. Despite an ever-increasing number of studies reporting climate change-induced range shifts, few of these have incorporated species’ specific dispersal constraints into their models. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on genetic variation within populations and species have rarely been assessed, while this is a promising direction for future research. Here we explore the effects of climate change on the potential distribution and genetic variation of the endemic Pyrenean newt Calotriton asper over the period 2020–2080. We use species distribution modelling in combination with high-resolution gridded climate data while subsequently applying four different dispersal scenarios. We furthermore use published data on genetic variation of both mtDNA and AFLP loci to test whether populations with high genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity and expected heterozygosity) or evolutionary history (unique haplotypes and K clusters) have an increased extinction risk from climate change. The present study indicates that climate change drastically reduces the potential distribution range of C. asper and reveals dispersal possibilities to be minimal under the most realistic dispersal scenarios. Despite the major loss in suitable climate, the models highlight relatively large stable areas throughout the species core distribution area indicating persistence of populations over time. The results, however, show a major loss of genetic diversity and evolutionary history. This highlights the importance of accounting for intraspecific genetic variation in climate change impact studies. Likewise, the integration of species’ specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models is an important step to fully explore the effects of climate change on species potential distributions.     

Double-brooded great tits (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parus major</Emphasis>) in Mediterranean oak habitats: Do first broods always perform better than second broods?

Although mistimed reproduction (i.e., time-lag between peak food supply and offspring food demand) has been attributed to habitat modifications or climate change in recent avian investigations, earlier breeding parents have higher reproductive success in many habitats. Here we compare first and second broods in great tits (Parus major L.) from two Mediterranean oak habitats differing significantly in the timing (about 5 weeks), but not the amount of caterpillar supply required to rear chicks. The study indicates that both the extent of mistimed reproduction and the breeding date per se influence breeding performance in this study system. The text was submitted by the authors in English.     

Bioclimatic modelling of current and projected climatic suitability of coffee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Coffea arabica</Emphasis>) production in Zimbabwe

Coffee is an important commodity crop in Zimbabwe and many other African countries in terms of its contribution to local and national economies. Coffee production in terms of productivity and quality face severe constraints due to climate change. A study was therefore carried out to understand and quantify the potential impact of climate change on the coffee sector in Zimbabwe using a bioclimatic modelling approach. Current climatically suitable areas were identified and compared with those areas identified to be climatically suitable under projected 2050 climatic conditions. The projected climatic conditions were obtained from climate predictions of two models: CCSM4 model and HadGEM2 model. Coffee production was found to be mostly sensitive to precipitation factors as these were the most important in determining climatic suitability of coffee production in Zimbabwe. The modelling showed that current coffee suitability varies spatially between the four coffee producing districts in Zimbabwe. Chipinge district has the largest area climatically suitable for coffee production followed by Chimanimani district with Mutare district having the smallest. The modelling predicted that there will be a spatial and quantitative change in climatic suitability for coffee production in Zimbabwe by 2050. The greatest changes are projected for Mutare district where over three quarters according to the CCSM4 model and the entire district according to the HadGEM2 model will turn marginal for coffee production. A westward shift in climatic suitability of coffee was observed for Chipinge and Chimanimani district. The models predicted a loss of between 30,000 ha (CCSM4) and 50,000 ha (HadGEM2) in areas climatically suitable for coffee production by 2050 in Zimbabwe. These changes are likely to be driven by changes in the distribution of precipitation received in the coffee areas. The study presents possible adaptation measures that can be adopted by the coffee sector in Zimbabwe and the region to maintain coffee productivity under a changing climate.     

Mediterranean agriculture under climate change: adaptive capacity, adaptation, and ethics

In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative consequences on agricultural systems and which will cause uneven reductions in agricultural production. By and large, the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture will be heavier for southern areas of the region. This unbalanced distribution of negative impacts underscores the significance and role of ethics in such a context of analysis. Consequently, the aim of this article is to justify and develop an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation in the Mediterranean and to derive the consequent implications for adaptation policy in the region. In particular, we define an index of adaptive capacity for the agricultural systems of the Mediterranean region on whose basis it is possible to group its different sub-regions, and we provide an overview of the suitable adaptation actions and policies for the sub-regions identified. We then vindicate and put forward an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation, highlighting the implications for the Mediterranean region and the limitations of such an ethical framework. Finally, we emphasize the broader potential of ethics for agricultural adaptation policy.     

Land-use legacies in the forest structure of silvopastoral oak woodlands in the Eastern Mediterranean

Eastern Mediterranean silvopastoral oak woodlands have been greatly damaged through forest conversion, illegal lumbering, overgrazing, and forest fires. The aim of this study was to assess land-use changes and the legacies that they have imprinted on the forest structure of Quercus macrolepis and accompanying Quercus pubescens and Quercus cerris woodlands on Lesvos Island, Greece. The size structures of adult oak populations were analyzed as indicators of long-term oak regeneration, while short-term recruitment was determined by counting oak seedlings and saplings. The size structure of the adult Q. macrolepis population was similar to the inverse J-shaped distribution typical for natural Mediterranean oak forests, indicating continuous recruitment with a constant mortality rate of mature individuals. Seedling and sapling densities were highly variable, but generally low in relation to adult oak densities. Recruitment of oak seedlings and saplings was positively related to determinants such as forest cover, adult oak density and basal area, woody plant richness, and litter cover. Both seedling and sapling occurrence were negatively associated with dung frequency, which suggests that sheep grazing imposes a barrier to oak recruitment. The study outlines a comprehensive land-use transition from the 1950 to 1970s, during which a complex and multifunctional agrosilvopastoral land-use system was simplified to an intensive grazing system. The discrepancy between the successful long-term regeneration and the less successful short-term recruitment of oaks illustrates that intensified livestock grazing has been a major driver of vegetation change. Grazing impact is likely to interact with increasing drought conditions, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle that undermines the capacity of woodlands to sustain ecosystem services.     

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

Climate change and economic consequences for inland waterway transport in Europe

Future climate conditions are likely to affect inland waterway transport in Europe. According to some climate scenarios, in summer, in the river Rhine, periods with low water levels are likely to occur more often and become more serious. Then inland waterway transport carriers will experience more severe restrictions on the load factor of their inland ships, which implies a stronger reduction in transport capacity in the market. Transport prices will rise under such conditions. Some studies reviewed in this paper find that at extremely low water levels, the price per tonne for inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area will almost double. These increased transport prices result in welfare losses. For the dry summer in 2003, the losses for North West Europe are estimated to sum up to around €480 million. Increased transport prices trigger adaptation. Inland waterway carriers may use smaller vessels, and shippers have the opportunity to shift from inland waterway transport to alternative transport modes in periods with low water levels. This effect is probably rather modest, however, with a modal shift to road and rail smaller than 10 %. Also, changes in transport costs may lead to relocation of certain economic activities in the long run.     

Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe

Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests.     

The viticultural system and climate change: coping with long-term trends in temperature and rainfall in Roussillon,France

Mediterranean viticulture could suffer from hotter and drier growing seasons over the coming decades. The present article focuses on the wine-producing area Côtes-du-Roussillon-Villages near Perpignan, in southern France. We used observational daily data (1925–2010) from Perpignan weather station and daily outputs (2001–2060) of the regional climate model ARPEGE-RETIC-V4 from Météo-France with scenarios A2, A1B and B1, to assess the exposure of the regional wine system to changes in temperature and precipitation, both in the recent past and the coming decades (1925–2060). Temperatures during the growing season and summer temperature extremes have been increasing continuously since the mid-1980s and are projected to increase faster from the mid-2040s. Precipitation is highly variable and very low in summer, and projections suggest greater uncertainty, and more extreme drought events could be expected. The analysis of climate data was complemented by thirty-two in-depth interviews with local actors of the wine industry to assess the impacts of climate change on their activities and potential adaptive options. Producers reported negative impacts of recent changes in climate in conjunction with a difficult economic situation. Analyses of historical, social and economic backgrounds are important to fully conceptualize the nature and extent of climate change risks in the region. This case study provides important insights into the roles of non-climatic factors in the generation of vulnerability for Mediterranean agricultural systems facing rapid climate change.     

Habitat suitability and potential distribution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Laudakia nupta</Emphasis> (De Filippi, 1843) (Sauria: Agamidae) in Iran

In the present study, Laudakia nupta were selected as a case study and were examined using the Maxent method to evaluate the potential distribution and most suitable areas. All occurrence records of the species have been gathered from literature and recent updated checklists of lizards of Iran. The final model of L. nupta showed a good performance (AUC = 0.962; SD = 0.011) indicating that the most suitable areas are situated in the western Zagros Mountains in Iran. The situation of the suitable areas in the western Zagros, while the remaining southeastern areas are of low suitability, is controversial and needs more investigation with different criteria such as molecular and other systematic methods. Precipitation of the wettest quarter is the most effective factor for the species presence and I can assume this importance is directly related to the growth of plant in the habitat as main source of food.     

盐城市沿海的适宜开发空间选择研究

开发空间选择通过辨识适宜开发空间,使得工业发展、城市建设活动尽可能地配置在弱自然生态阻力、强经济引力的空间,实现区域生态、经济效益的最大化。借鉴以往研究,结合案例区特点,建立指标体系,基于乡镇单元,运用GIS工具综合分析盐城市域自然生态阻力和经济引力的空间分异特征,运用矩阵列联分类方法划分空间开发适宜类型,并根据适宜开发空间的地域特点将其分为城市区域和临港区域。研究认为,盐城沿海的适宜开发空间主要分布于204国道沿线的县市城区、部分临近乡镇及沿海陈家港、滨海港、海通镇等地区;临海部分乡镇凭借其资源潜力宜作为临港区域,是未来的主要产业空间载体;其它地区应定位于城市化空间,未来建设用地指标应优先向这些区域投放,引导人口、产业向这些地区的集聚。     

The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

Human activities are projected to lead to substantial increases in temperature that will impact northern Europe during winter and southern Europe during summer. Moreover, it is expected that these changes will cause increasing water shortages along the Mediterranean and in the south-west Balkans and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield and expansion of climatically suitable areas are expected to dominate, whereas disadvantages from increases in water shortage and extreme weather events (heat, drought, storms) will dominate in southern Europe. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean and south-eastern parts of Europe. Among the adaptation options (i.e. autonomous or planned adaptation strategies) that may be explored to minimize the negative impacts of climate changes and to take advantage of positive impacts, changes in crop species, cultivar, sowing date, fertilization, irrigation, drainage, land allocation and farming system seem to be the most appropriate. In adopting these options, however, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and economic functions in different European regions.     

Climatic and human drivers of recent lake-level change in East Juyan Lake,China

Drying of an inland river’s terminal lake in arid regions is an important signal of environmental degradation in downstream regions. A long-term, high-resolution understanding of the lake’s retreat and expansion and the driving mechanisms will inform future adaptive water management strategies, ecosystem restoration, and government decision-making in the context of a growing water scarcity in the inland river basin. The shrubs that grow along the shore of a lake often provide evidence of lake retreat or expansion. The chronological results showed that the earliest germination dates of the lakeshore shrubs, tamarisk, were in 1901, 1943, 1966, 2009, and 1990 from the higher terrace to the lower terrace of East Juyan Lake, a terminal lake of China’s Heihe River. Coupled with river and lake hydrological data, six obvious lake’s fluctuations were identified: shrinkage from 1900 to 1940s and during the early 1990s, expansion and retreat in the late 1950s and early 1970s, continued expansion from 2002 to 2008, and stabilization at a water area of around 40 km² from 2009 to the present. The water elevation in the 1900s was below 905 m a.s.l., resulting in a water area <80 km², but decreased to 40 km² after 1960 and dried up completely by the 1990s. By analysing climatic and hydrological records since 1950, tree-ring climate proxy data, river runoff outside the observation period, and water resource consumption in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River, we found that the periodic expansion and retreat of East Juyan Lake was influenced by both climate change and human activities, but especially by human activities. The lake’s recent recovery and stability was achieved by government policy designed to provide environmental flows to the lake.     

基于移动窗口法和栅格数据的重庆市人居环境自然适宜性评价

以GIS为主要技术平台，采用移动窗口法，以 250 m×250 m 栅格为基本单元，通过选择地形、气候、水文、植被等自然因子，基于人居环境指数的自然适宜性评价模型，对重庆市人居环境自然适宜性进行相关研究，并揭示其地理特征和空间格局。结果表明：(1)重庆市人居环境自然适宜度介于0255～0821，西部高于东部，北部高于南部;(2)临界适宜区面积最大，占全市面积的3453%；低度适宜区次之，占2252%；高度适宜区居第三，占2114%；中度适宜区占1784%；不适宜区面积最小，仅占396%;(3)重庆市8519%的人口分布在低度适宜及其以上的区域，相应面积占研究区面积的615%。实证表明，该研究结果可为重庆市人口空间布局的合理性、社会经济的可持续发展和方针政策的构建提供科学依据和重要参考     

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

The Mediterranean region of Chile is considered a biodiversity hot spot. An increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, as projected for the end of this century by global circulation models, would likely change the distribution of the sclerophyllous thorny shrubland and woodland. In order to assess those potential impacts, the MAXENT algorithm was used to project potential changes in the distribution of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Ecological niche models were fitted and used to project the potential distribution of these forest ecosystems by the end of the century. Projections were made using data from the PRECIS model for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and two strategies of occupancy: free migration and non-migration. Distribution models of sclerophyllous, woodland and shrubland performed accurately representing current species’ distribution. When we assume non-migration responses under climate change scenarios, results reveal a decrease in the distribution area for all the species. The areas where the highest reduction in a suitable environment was found are located along the coastline, where higher temperature increases have been projected. For native ecosystems from the Andean Range region, such as communities dominated by thorny species, a stable habitat was found, associated with a higher adaptation capability to future climatic projections. Hence, in the future, buffer zones originated by “topo-climatic” conditions might play a key role in protecting Central Chile biodiversity.     

Pleistocene Refugia for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calluna vulgaris</Emphasis> (L.) Hull Populations in the European Atlantic Region

The distribution of nine chloroplast DNA haplotypes in four insular North-Atlantic and four European coastal Atlantic populations of Calluna vulgaris in the glacial zone of the range has been analyzed in comparison with that in six marginal southern populations in the nonglacial zone of the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. As a result, two hypothetical Pleistocene refugia (HPRs) for this C. vulgaris population group have been revealed, one in the Cévennes mountain range and the other in the Southern Alps (Trento). Judging from the 1–F_ST value, it has been found that the group of populations in the glacial Atlantic zone and adjacent European coastal Atlantic region is genetically similar to the HPR in the Cévennes at a highly significant level (p ≥ 0.999) and less similar to the HPR in Trento; however, it differs significantly from other Mediterranean and Atlantic populations. It has been concluded that the most probable hypothetical Pleistocene refugium for the recent C. vulgaris populations of the northeastern Atlantic and European coastal Atlantic regions was in the west of the Mediterranean, in the Cévennes, while the additional refugium was in the Southern Alps. Possible directions of the postglacial dispersal and recolonization of habitats by C. vulgaris populations from the western Mediterranean to the northeast of the Atlantic and to Scandinavia have been revealed.     

升金湖湿地景观格局变化对越冬鹤类地理分布的影响

升金湖湿地是安徽省内的唯一以越冬鹤类为保护对象的国家级自然保护区。研究湿地景观格局变化对越冬鹤类地理分布的影响在恢复湿地生态系统、保护鹤类种群等方面具有重要参考价值。该文对升金湖湿地的白头鹤、白鹤、灰鹤及白枕鹤越冬鹤类的地理分布特征进行了分析,结合升金湖湿地1986～2017年间的8期遥感影像分析景观格局变化特征,并探讨了景观格局变化对越冬鹤类地理分布特征的影响。结果表明:1986～2017年间,升金湖湿地景观格局变化显著,斑块数量增加,景观破碎化严重。泥滩地、草滩地、建设用地、水田面积总体呈增加态势,旱地、林地、芦苇滩地及水域面积总体呈减少态势;4种鹤类数量总体呈减少趋势。鹤类主要地理分布区域为水域、水田、芦苇滩地、泥滩地及草滩地;升金湖湿地景观破碎化不断加剧,鹤类地理分布区域面积整体上在逐渐减少,适宜鹤类生境面积减少,直接导致近30年来鹤类数量逐渐减少。     

Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland,Australia

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land.     

Mapping of bioclimatic comfort for potential planning using GIS in Aydin

People are relaxed (satisfied or well-off) in what is described as comfortable climatic conditions. In such conditions, a person’s energy balance is not disturbed because of stresses from extreme heat or cold. Bioclimatic structure has been well researched and should be a consideration in the planning process for arranging comfortable spaces. It represents the understanding that energy balance is one of the basic elements of a sustainable landscape design. The goals of this study have been to create ideal places for human thermal comfort and to advance objectives focused on the importance of sustainable and ecological landscape planning and design work, along with their accompanying economic benefits. In this study, which focuses on the climate of the Province of Aydin, the most suitable areas for bioclimatic comfort have been identified. The climate values for the Aydin Province have been taken from a total of 22 meteorological stations. Stations at altitudes ranging from 11 to 871 m were used to note the climate changes that occurred. The average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed from each station, including data collected using Geographic Information System (GIS) software, were transferred. GIS maps were then created from the imported data, and areas of optimal comfort around the city of Aydin were determined. The results show the range that is suitable for a bioclimatic comfort zone in Aydin. The bioclimatic comfort range was determined to be roughly 17 °C for Aydin, and the city of Aydin demonstrated a comfort range between 14 and 19 °C. As a result, the city of Aydin was shown to be a suitable area for bioclimatic comfort.