Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand under Management Options and Climate Change Scenarios in Chifeng City,China

Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Planning models. We show how integrated modeling is useful in projecting the likely effects of management options using limited information. Our study indicates that constructing more reservoirs can alleviate the current water shortage and groundwater depletion problems. However, this option is not necessarily the most effective measure to solve water supply problems; instead, improving irrigation efficiency and changing cropping structure may be more effective. Furthermore, measures to increase water supply have limited effects on water availability under a continuous drought and a dry‐and‐warm climate scenario. We conclude that the combined measure of reducing water demand and increasing supply is the most effective and practical solution for the water shortage problems in the study area.     

Sharing waters: Post-Rio international water management

Transcending human-defined political and administrative boundaries, the world's transboundary freshwater resources pose particularly challenging management problems. Water resource users at all scales frequently find themselves in direct competition for this economic and life-sustaining resource, in turn creating tensions, and indeed conflict, over water supply, allocation, and quality. At the international scale, where the potential for conflict is of particular concern, significant efforts are underway to promote greater cooperation in the world's international river basins, with notable achievements in the past decade following the Dublin and Rio conferences. Over the past ten years, the international community has adopted conventions, declarations, and legal statements concerning the management of international waters, while basin communities have established numerous new basin institutions. Despite these developments, significant vulnerabilities remain. Many international basins still lack any type of joint management structure, and certain fundamental management components are noticeably absent from those that do. An understanding of these weaknesses, however, offers an opportunity for both the international and basin communities to better respond to the specific institution-building needs of basin communities and thereby foster broader cooperation over the world's international water resources.     

森林资源可持续发展问题及对策

森林是陆地生态系统的主体,是维持生态平衡和改善生态环境的重要保障,是国民经济和社会发展的物质基础,在应对全球气候变化中发挥着不可替代的作用,并且有着巨大的经济、社会和生态效益。通过分析我国的森林资源结构、质量和区域分布,发现我国森林资源保护和发展工作中面临着诸如森林资源总量不足、质量偏低、破坏严重、火灾频繁等问题,提出了森林资源可持续发展要以科学发展观为指导,围绕建设生态文明,提高森林质量,增强森林功能。     

China's water scarcity

China has been facing increasingly severe water scarcity, especially in the northern part of the country. China's water scarcity is characterized by insufficient local water resources as well as reduced water quality due to increasing pollution, both of which have caused serious impacts on society and the environment. Three factors contribute to China's water scarcity: uneven spatial distribution of water resources; rapid economic development and urbanization with a large and growing population; and poor water resource management. While it is nearly impossible to adjust the first two factors, improving water resource management represents a cost-effective option that can alleviate China's vulnerability to the issue. Improving water resource management is a long-term task requiring a holistic approach with constant effort. Water right institutions, market-based approaches, and capacity building should be the government's top priority to address the water scarcity issue.     

Building resilience to drought in desertification-prone savannas in Sub-Saharan Africa: The water perspective

Securing sustainable livelihood conditions and reducing the risk of outmigration in savanna ecosystems hosted in the tropical semiarid regions is of fundamental importance for the future of humanity in general. Although precipitation in tropical drylands, or savannas, is generally more significant than one might expect, these regions are subject to considerable rainfall variability which causes frequent periods of water deficiency. This paper addresses the twin problems of “drought and desertification” from a water perspective, focusing on the soil moisture (green water) and plant water uptake deficiencies. It makes a clear distinction between long‐term climate change, meteorological drought, and agricultural droughts and dry spells caused by rainfall variability and land degradation. It then formulates recommendations to better cope with and to build resilience to droughts and dry spells. Coping with desertification requires a new conceptual framework based on green‐blue water resources to identify hydrological opportunities in a sea of constraints. This paper proposes an integrated land/water approach to desertification where ecosystem management supports agricultural development to build social‐ecological resilience to droughts and dry spells. This approach is based on the premise that to combat desertification, focus should shift from reducing trends of land degradation in agricultural systems to water resource management in savannas and to landscape‐wide ecosystem management.     

RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

Integrated urban water management modelling under climate change scenarios

The concept of integrated water management is uncommon in urban areas, unless there is a shortage of supply and severe conflicts among the users competing for limited water resources. Further, problem of water management in urban areas will aggravate due to uncertain climatic events. Therefore, an Integrated Urban Water Management Model considering Climate Change (IUWMCC) has been presented which is suitable for optimum allocation of water from multiple sources to satisfy the demands of different users under different climate change scenarios. Effect of climate change has been incorporated in non-linear mathematical model of resource allocation in term of climate change factors. These factors have been developed using runoff responses corresponding to base and future scenario of climate. Future scenarios have been simulated using stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) for different IPCC climate change scenarios i.e. A1B, A2 and B1. Further, application of model has been demonstrated for a realistic water supply system of Ajmer urban fringe (India). Developed model is capable in developing adaptation strategies for optimum water resources planning and utilization in urban areas under different climate change scenarios.     

Determining regional water quality patterns and their ecological relationships

A multivariate statistical method for analyzing spatial patterns of water quality in Georgia and Kansas was tested using data in the US Environmental Protection Agency's STORET data system. Water quality data for Georgia and Kansas were organized by watersheds. We evaluated three questions: (a) can distinctive regional water quality patterns be detected and predicted using only a few water quality variables, (b) are regional water quality patterns correlated with terrestrial biotic regions, and (c) are regional water quality patterns correlated with fish distributions? Using existing data, this method can distinguish regions with water quality very different from the average conditions (as in Georgia), but it does not discriminate well between regions that do not have diverse water quality conditions (as in Kansas). Data that are spatially and temporally adequate for representing large regions and for multivariate statistical analysis are available for only a few common water quality parameters. Regional climate, lithology, and biotic regimes all have the potential to affect water quality, and terrestrial biotic regions and fish distributions do compare with regional water quality patterns, especially in a state like Georgia, where watershed characteristics are diverse. Thus, identifiable relationships between watershed characteristics and water quality should allow the development of an integrated landaquatic classification system that would be a valuable tool for resource management. Because geographical distributions of species may be limited by Zoogeographic and environmental factors, the recognition of patterns in fish distributions that correlate with regional water quality patterns could influence management strategies and aid regional assessments.     

Water resources issues of small island developing states

The water resources of most small island developing states (SIDS) are often very limited and require special consideration to ensure that they are developed and managed in a sustainable manner. Many small islands, typically located in the humid tropics, have no surface water resources and rely on limited groundwater resources in the form of thin freshwater lenses. The exposed location of small islands makes them particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as cyclones, floods and droughts. Pollution from population centres and from agricultural and other activities is an increasing problem. This article provides an overview of the water resources of small islands, and the main problems and issues related to water resources. Some suggested solutions, based on practical experiences, are offered for water resource assessment and monitoring programmes, and water resource development. Water resource policy, planning and management issues are also addressed, and suggested approaches for resolving some of the major water resource problems presented.     

Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya

Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management.     

LONG-TERM VARIATIONS IN SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPORTANT TO WATER RESOURCES IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of historical relationships between seasonal weather conditions and water resource conditions in Illinois provides insights to the challenges of projecting such relationships under conditions of climate change. In Illinois for 1901–1997 there were major temporal shifts in types of seasonal conditions that have positive and negative effects on surface water and ground water supplies and their quality. Major seasonal effects came in the spring and summer seasons and when either wet-and-warm or dry-and-warm weather conditions prevailed in either season. Sixty percent of the summer seasons creating negative impacts occurred during only 40 years: 1911–1940 and 1951–1960. Seasons creating impacts relate well to the frequency of cyclone passages and to the incidence of El Niño or La Niña conditions. This reveals that future climate fluctuations that shift the frequency of cyclones and/or ENSO events will have profound effects on Midwestern seasonal conditions that affect water resources. Projecting future effects of climate change on water resources will need to consider how shifts in water use and water management technologies act to re-define the seasonal weather conditions that are critical.     

Application of a Physical Input–Output Table to Evaluate the Development and Sustainability of Continental Water Resources in Spain

Continental waters are complex resources in terms of a measurable physical quantity, and measuring them requires a good knowledge of total water availability. In this research, an accounting physical input–output table (PIOT) was applied to evaluate total water resources and gross annual availabilities at each stage of the natural-artificial water cycle. These stages are considered subsystems of a continental water resource system describing water transfers for an average year within 13 administrative basins of Spain. Water transfers between various subsystems are characterized by internal flows decreasing the water resource availabilities. The PIOT analysis establishes these internal flows, and the origins and final uses of the total resources for each subsystem. The input-output balance registered an unsustainable negative net accumulation in eight water basins. The PIOT analysis also allowed the calculation of significant indicators such as water resource developments (RDI) and their sustainable use (SUI). RDI and SUI demonstrate that groundwater is a critical resource affecting the environment (e.g., wetlands in the upper Guadiana) and the water supply (e.g., irrigation in the Segura basin). The results of this model suggest that above-/below-ground hydrological links are important when decisions have to be made in order to provide a satisfactory supply of water in Spain. The model integrates the different water basins under territorial criteria, and therefore it may be useful for the Spanish National Hydrological Plan.     

Experiences in the water resources development and management for sustainable use in Zimbabwe

Fresh water has become a very topical, emotive and sensitive issue in Zimbabwe following the recent continued droughts in conjunction with lack of finance to expand water resources development. Heated debates have arisen over the availability, allocation, distribution, disbursement and conservation of this precious resource. A great deal of inefficiency has also resulted from Government Ministries or Departments playing all the roles, from policymaking to supply operations. Government authorities often make the mistake of controlling day-to-day management of water and sewage services. In fact, greater accountability results when Government authorities focus on policymaking, establishing regulatory regimes that provide incentives for achieving goals and sanctions for serious failures, while giving sufficient autonomy to entities responsible for investment and operations to control outcomes. It is becoming more and more evident throughout the world that provision of water, as opposed to the planning and allocation of the water resource, should be handled by commercial undertakers. Indeed, Zimbabwe and its neighbours are currently involved with changing the status of their water departments to corporate entities; Botswana, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia have already commercialised or are currently in the process of commercialising their freshwater supply services.     

The paradox of the modernisation of urban water systems in Europe: Intrinsic institutional limits for sustainability

This article assesses the sustainability potential of the urban water systems in Europe (UWSE) following their modernisation. A decade after implementation and close to the first deadlines, modernisation efforts seem to have not been (totally) successful. This article examines the ability of governance to achieve sustainability and poses the question of how modernisation develops a particular “terrain” more or less favourable to sustainability. We use the Institutional resource regimes framework which has been dedicated to determining the potential for sustainability of natural resources regulation. Conclusions show that the modernisation of UWSEs offers a path for progress which though necessary is insufficient due to a lack of coherence between policy design and the regulatory system. Globally, the development of regulation goes hand in hand with increasing inconsistencies that reduce the efficiency of the reform.     

Science and Decision Making: Water Management and Tree‐Ring Data in the Western United States1

Abstract: Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree‐ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree‐ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in‐depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree‐ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree‐ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science‐policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers.     

Achieving SDG 6: water resources sustainability in Caribbean Small Island Developing States through improved water governance

Scientific findings confirm that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean are experiencing droughts and sea level rises that are contributing to saline intrusion of underground aquifers and surface water sources. This paper, using Trinidad as a case study, analyses water governance challenges in meeting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, which addresses the sustainability of water resources. Interviews were conducted with professionals from multi‐disciplinary backgrounds. Also, data provided by the water agency were analysed to evaluate water governance practices. The main contribution of this paper is the generation of a blend of policies, good practices and tools to confront growing threats to water security and to attain sustainable development in Caribbean SIDS in an era of climate change and increasing non‐climatic stressors. The paper concludes that economic, environmental and human resources, reformed administrative and legislative systems, and technological tools are fundamental to achieving good water governance. Moreover, an array of complementary policies and technologies is needed to resolve water governance issues. However, political will to implement sustainable water resources management is the greatest challenge in attaining SDG 6.     

The USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program: Needs,Establishment, and Goals of a Water Census

Many reports have recognized the need for a national water census for the United States and have called upon the U.S. Geological Survey to undertake this challenge. For example, the National Science and Technology Council stated: “The United States has a strong need for an ongoing census of water that describes the status of our Nation's water resource at any point in time and identifies trends over time.” Responding to the need for this information, the U.S. Congress established the SECURE Water Act. The directives are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States; determine the quantity of water available for beneficial uses; identify long‐term trends in water availability; assist in determination of the quality of the water resources; and develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast the availability of water for future economic, energy production, and environmental uses. This article provides summary and new information on the process and progress on work to estimate water budget components nationwide, involvement of stakeholder interests, efforts to examine water‐use characteristics throughout the Nation, studies of water availability in geographically focused areas and the initiation of methods to provide open access to existing and new water resources information contributing to Open Water Data Initiative (OWDI) efforts and objectives.     

Water Quality in Drinking Water Reservoirs of a Megacity, Istanbul

Providing clean water at relevant quality and quantity is a challenge that regulatory authorities have to face in metropolitan cities that seem to develop at their limits of sustainability. Istanbul strives to face such a challenge for its population of over 10 million, through six surface water resources. Two approaches of classification for the reservoirs are presented, one based on current regulations and an alternative based on a more detailed classification. The results have shown that nutrient control is the primary issue, and one of the reservoirs has already exceeded the limits of being eutrophic, one is at mesotrophic conditions, and the remaining four are at the limit of being eutrophic, indicating the significance of making the correct decision and taking pertinent measures for management and control. It has been observed that the only mesotrophic resource, which also has the best general quality class, has no industry and a very low population density, whereas the one that is already eutrophic is also the one with the lowest quality class, has the highest population density, and has the greatest percentage of urban land use within its watershed.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience

The article advances the hypothesis that the seasonal and inter‐annual variability of rainfall is a significant and measurable factor in the economic development of nations. An analysis of global datasets reveals a statistically significant relationship between greater rainfall variability and lower per capita GDP. Having established this correlation, we construct a water resources development index that highlights areas that have the greatest need for storage infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of rainfall variability on water availability for food and basic livelihood. The countries with the most critical infrastructure needs according to this metric are among the poorest in the world, and the majority of them are located in Africa. The importance of securing water availability in these nations increases every day in light of current population growth, economic development, and climate change projections.