可持续发展与生物技术问题研究

可持续发展问题的最终解决依靠科学技术的发展，生物技术在人口、资源、健康、医疗等方面能够起到关键作用。必须大力发展与农业、资源、环境、人口、能源密切相关的生物技术，推动我国在21世纪实现跨越发展，成为世界健康经济发展的主导力量。本文介绍了生物技术发展的特点及在促进可持续发展中的作用，并探索了利用生物技术推动可持续发展的措施。     

Mediterranean agriculture under climate change: adaptive capacity, adaptation, and ethics

In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative consequences on agricultural systems and which will cause uneven reductions in agricultural production. By and large, the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture will be heavier for southern areas of the region. This unbalanced distribution of negative impacts underscores the significance and role of ethics in such a context of analysis. Consequently, the aim of this article is to justify and develop an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation in the Mediterranean and to derive the consequent implications for adaptation policy in the region. In particular, we define an index of adaptive capacity for the agricultural systems of the Mediterranean region on whose basis it is possible to group its different sub-regions, and we provide an overview of the suitable adaptation actions and policies for the sub-regions identified. We then vindicate and put forward an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation, highlighting the implications for the Mediterranean region and the limitations of such an ethical framework. Finally, we emphasize the broader potential of ethics for agricultural adaptation policy.     

Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies.     

Energy efficiency and conservation for individual Americans

Americans make up only 4% of the world population, yet currently consume 25% of the world’s fossil fuels. The U.S. imports 63% of its oil and it is predicted that by 2020 the U.S. will be importing 95% of its oil resources. Over the past century, ample and affordable supplies of fossil fuels have powered the growth and prosperity of the economies of the US and other countries. Within this century, world oil supplies will decline while demand is projected to continue to increase, suggesting that we will have to transition to different fuels or become much more energy efficient or both. Looking ahead to the near decades, estimates are that consumers will have to reduce their energy use by at least 50%. This reduction will be necessary in large part due the decline in the availability of conventional oil and gas, but also because the U.S. population will continue to grow in number. Although government action is important, individuals too often discount their ability to make significant contributions to solving such major problems. This investigation identifies how informed and concerned individuals can collectively conserve fossil energy. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Sustainable Development: The Need for a New Paradigm

At present, the term sustainable development is misleading because we actually live in a markedly unsustainable world and conditions will become even more unsustainable in the 21st century. Indeed, the 21st century will be the defining period in man's occupation of this planet. Either we take very positive steps to ameliorate our environmental excesses now or we face the prospect of major environmental catastrophes in the future. It is a fact that advanced civilizations have collapsed twice within the last 5000 years in Europe and we must face up to the fact that a third collapse, this time on a global scale, is not beyond the realms of possibility. It is therefore up to us to begin using our considerable ingenuity to prepare for the future in a more rational manner than is presently the case. This article demonstrates clearly the dilemma that we now face.     

The costs and benefits of radon remediation programmes in existing homes: case study of action level selection

Radon gas can be present within buildings at sufficiently high levels that it becomes a health risk. Such levels can be reduced, and so radon remediation programmes in the home in UK Affected Areas should result in reduced risks to the population. This paper considers the benefits and costs of the domestic radon remediation programme in Northamptonshire, UK, and considers the implications of the choice of Action Level, in view of the adoption of different levels in many countries. A programme with a higher Action Level will cost less, and target those most at risk, but will be less cost effective. In addition, a higher Action Level leaves a higher residual dose and risk to the remaining population. Such doses are higher than and inconsistent with the radiation dose limits for the general public in the EU Basic Standards Directive.     

Discussing why population growth is still ignored or denied

Due to a number of factors outlined in this article, the issue of population growth is excluded from the sustainability discussion. In this article, we explore some of the ethical presumptions that underlie the issues linking population growth and sustainability. Critics argue that action to address population creates social and economic segregation, and portray overpopulation concerns as being “anti-poor,” “anti-developing country,” or even “antihuman.” Yet, de-linking demographic factors from sustainability concerns ignores significant global realities and trends, such as the ecological limits of the Earth, the welfare and long-term livelihood of the most vulnerable groups, future prospects of humanity, as well as the ecosystems that support society.     

21世纪初华中地区发展的资源环境基础

作为中国21世纪资源开发的重要场所,华中地区资源环境开发利用将对国家社会经济发展起到举足轻重的作用。对华中地区资源本底特征、人地关系演进状态及发展趋势进行了分析,认 为华中地区拥有较好的资源基础,特别是在水土两大资源的结合方面。但是从现状和未来国家高速工业发展看,未来华中地区自然资源承载负荷将面临较以往更为巨大和更为艰难的挑战。一方面,优越的地理位置使华中地区在国家未来经济发展与资源环境协调过程中的重要地位更为突出,另一方面,当地的人口增长和经济发展同样会对有限的资源基础造成越来越大的压力。因此,区域发展政策应当做出相应调整。     

Antibiotics in the aquatic environments: A review of the European scenario

The discovery of antibiotics is considered one of the most significant scientific achievements of the 20th century, revolutionizing both human and veterinary medicine. However, antibiotics have been recently recognized as an emerging class of environmental contaminants since they have been massively administrated in humans and animals and persist in the environment through a complex vicious cycle of transformation and bioaccumulation. The diffusion of antibiotics in the environment, particularly in natural water systems, contributes to the development and global dissemination of antibiotic resistance. This phenomenon is one of the most important challenges to the health care sector in the 21st century. As a result, studies on the occurrence, fate, and effects of antibiotics in European aqueous environments have increased in the last years. Nevertheless, their potential aquatic ecotoxicity and human toxicity via environmental exposure routes remain unknown. Consequently, antibiotics are not regulated through the current European environmental water quality standards, which requires evidence concerning their widespread environmental contamination and intrinsic hazard. In this context, this literature review summarizes the state of knowledge on the occurrence of antibiotics in the different aqueous environmental systems across the Europe, as reported since 2000. Relating this subject to antibiotic consumption and their dynamic behavior in the environment, the acquired insights provide an improved understanding on aquatic pollution by antibiotics to outline the European scenario. Moreover, it addresses challenges, prospects for future research, and typical topics to stimulate discussion.     

两种制度下公共资源长期耗用之比较

丁和张维迎对“公共地悲剧”的论述,是以参与耗用公共资源的人数不变为假定的。但是,有些资源即使在长期中也无法改变其公共资源的属性,这使得耗用这类资源的人数在长期中会发生变化。只要有超额利润,就会有更多的人参与耗用该资源;反之,则会有人退出。通过构建数学模型,探讨了长期中两种不同的制度安排（个体理性与集体理性）下,人们耗用这种无进入壁垒公共资源的均衡情况的差异。结果显示,集体理性可以使该资源的耗用速度减慢,但是会导致生产效率低下、社会福利减少;而个体理性下资源的消耗速度更快,但可以达到提高生产效率、增加社会福利的效果。进一步认为,解决资源短缺问题,制度只能是权宜之计,技术才是根本出路。     

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

Small island states around the world are among the areas most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. In this paper, we present results from an innovative methodology for a quantitative assessment of multiple hazards on coastal risks, driven by different hydro-meteorological events, and including the effects of climate change. Moreover, we take an additional step by including in the methodology the option to assess and compare the effectiveness of possible disaster risk reduction measures. The methodology is applied to a real case study at the island of Ebeye (the Republic of the Marshall Islands). An example is provided in which a rock revetment is implemented as a risk reduction measure for the island. Results show that yearly expected damages may increase, by the end of the century, by a factor of three to four, depending on the sea level rise scenario considered, while the number of yearly affected people may double. Putting a cap on the temperature increase (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2 °C) according to the Paris Agreement may reduce damages and number of affected people by about 20 and 15%, respectively. However, impacts for same warming levels can vary substantially among different emission scenarios. Disaster risk reduction measures can be useful for mitigating risks in current and future situations but should be incorporated within long-term adaptive planning for these islands.     

过犹不及:土地资源资本化与实体经济发展

在经济转型发展战略背景下,探讨土地资源资本化及其对实体经济发展的影响具有重要理论和现实意义。不同于已有研究均质化地理解土地资本化,该研究从"度"的视角切入,认为土地资本化存在适度与过度之分,由此分析了不同程度土地资本化对实体经济的影响,并基于中国工业企业微观数据予以实证考察,最后讨论了中国当前土地过度资本化风险与原因。研究表明:(1)土地资本化存在限度,限度范围内促进实体经济增长,越过限度则抑制实体经济增长,两者呈"倒U型"关系,该结论在多种模型设定下均保持稳健;(2)当土地资本化越过最优限度,将激起全要素成本快速上涨,导致利润空间收窄,引致实体经济萎缩;(3)从工业企业大样本微观数据估计出的"倒U型"拐点来判断,当前中国城市经济已面临较严重的土地过度资本化问题,东中西部相继进入过度资本化高风险状态,这可能损害实体经济而影响中国经济的增长前景;(4)进一步的分析表明,中国式分权造成的地方政府"为增长而竞争"可能是土地资本化持续深化乃至过度化的重要原因,调整政治激励方式应是寻求土地过度资本化理性回归的着力点。研究提供了重要政策启示:土地资本化是一把"双刃剑",趋利避害的关键是把握"度"的原则;中国必须通过深化政绩考核、土地市场和土地税制等多方面协同改革来纠正土地过度资本化偏向;面向高质量发展与实体经济转型升级,主动转变土地资本化支撑方式,改革土地资本收益支出结构,加快支出重心向新基建、科教部门和民生部门转移。     

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.     

Social participation and climate change

Social participation has been broadly analysed by comparing case studies of different types of socio-economic developments in Brazil and the United Kingdom (UK). A key objective has been to consider how effective social participation has been in incorporating society’s points of view in the decision making process. In most cases, it would appear that very little can be done by stakeholders to change big decisions on development policies that support public and private development because in reality social participation often only provides an opportunity for discussion and agreement on specific issues regarding how development will be undertaken and how stakeholders will be affected. Although Brazil and the United Kingdom have socio-economic and cultural differences, it is necessary to emphasize that education, self-organization and knowledge of civil rights are crucial for an effective social participation process. As climate change is an important topic for present and future generations and that some of the development activities analysed in this study will emit greenhouse gases, this study also attempts to investigate if climate change mitigation strategies have been integrated into the social participation process. Investigation shows that there is little evidence that climate change mitigation actions involving stakeholders have been integrated into development strategies or have been part of social participation schemes in the case studies analysed. Having said that, the study also describes positive examples of climate change mitigation actions in different parts of the world that involve local people in ‘carbon-neutral’ or ‘social-carbon’ projects and proposes the creation of a carbon-neutral committee that would be responsible for coordinating climate change mitigation measures within development proposals such as the ones analysed in this study.     

论提高健康投资效率的最优选择

我国目前正处在健康体制改革的关键时期．把有限的健康资金用于初级健康保障领域，还是继续投入到大病统筹医疗保险．将决定未来我国健康体制的投资绩效。在现行健康保障制度下．我国公共卫生支出规模小、投入结构不合理加重了城乡居民的健康负担；医疗服务可及性低、公平性差导致居民健康产出水平低、医疗服务满意度差。并造成巨大的人力资本损耗和经济损失。在我国现有财力水平下．作为卫生领域的主要参与主体，政府应该逐步提高公共卫生支出规模、改变现有卫生筹资模式．将公共健康资金更多的投入于具有广覆盖、低投入、高产出的初级健康服务领域。这是实现健康公平性、减轻民众健康负担和提高健康投资效率、提高民众健康产出的有效途径。     

21世纪三峡库区中雨以上日数的情景预估

利用用于IPCC AR4的全球气候模式产品，验证其对三峡库区极端降水指数中雨以上日数（R10）模拟能力的基础上，对模拟能力较好的模式进行组合，同时考虑模式的偏差，预估高（A2）、中(A1B)、低(B1)3种排放情景下未来21世纪三峡库区R10的变化。不同排放情景下未来三峡库区R10的变化存在差异。与目前气候（1980～1999年）相比，未来整个21世纪（2011～2100年），A2情景下三峡库区R10平均减少1.7 d，A1B情景下平均减少0.3 d，B1情景下平均增加0.2 d，3种情景平均将减少0.6 d。21世纪初期（2011～2040年）、中期（2041～2070年）和后期（2071～2100年），A2情景下三峡库区R10减少都最多，分别平均减少2.5、1.5和1.0 d；3种情景平均分别减少1.4、0.2和0.1 d。〖     

中国有机食品的生产和认证

中国的有机食品开发和认证工作起步于上个世纪末。经过近十年的发展，有机食品的开发行为已基本得到了社会各界的认可，更多的基地、企业、高校、科研单位以及政府部门都参与到这一新兴产业中，有机食品产业蓄势待发。目前，如何正确分析和处理有机食品开发过程中的一些问题以引导和促进该项事业的健康发展，已显得尤为重要。本文在总结近年来工作的基础上，提出了中国有机食品开发工作中存在的一些不足之处，希望能够起到抛砖引玉的作用，使更多的人参与到有机食品认证管理的讨论之中。     

Overview and definition of risk: Its assessment and management

Risk assessment includes both risk estimation (identifying hazards and estimating their outcomes and probabilities) and risk evaluation (determining the significance or value of risks to those concerned with or affected by the decision). Risk estimation is about situations, and risk evaluation about the effect on people. Few situations are absolutely safe. Risks need to be estimated, and for many kinds of risk (e.g., exposures to potentially toxic substances or to potentially catastrophic situations) an expert view has to be formed, which must take account of associated uncertainties. Different sections of the public perceive risk in different ways, and regard some risks more seriously than the expert estimates. Thus studies of risk perception form a further input into the decision-making process. Another input is the benefit of the activity. A regulatory framework consistent with the reality of risk estimation has been proposed. Since risks and benefits fall on different parts of the community, the decision process is essentially political, though it must be informed scientifically. How the decision is taken will depend on national governmental practices.     

生态中心论之后现代视域的辨析

作为当代环境伦理学之生态中心论的代表,克里考特以新物理学与生态学的视角引向后现代主义的整体观。这一思路指向的是整体论系统观的范式,后者具有四项特征:1整体的性质不能被还原为部分的性质;2整体是部分形成的原因与依据;3部分是系统地互相联系的;4部分是内在地互相联系的,即关系决定存在。以该整体论系统观的范式为依据,克里考特的后现代视域既涉及本体论,也指向价值论。在本体层面,克里考特借鉴了深生态学中"充分实现的自我"的概念试图解构笛卡尔的主客二分。进而,在削弱现代哲学中三类性质(数量性、质量性与价值性)区分的同时,克里考特提出了"实质价值"的概念,并试图以实质价值消解内在价值的同时统摄固有价值与工具价值。在文本梳理的基础上,本文也考察了克里考特的后现代视域的逻辑依据与实践可能。具体地,本文指出:1克里考特以实证科学之认知来架构形上本体的思路混淆了科学命题与玄学命题的区别内涵;2建立在消解三类性质基础上的"实质价值"架空了价值本身的应然引力;3克里考特过分地强调了整体与部分的对立从而容易陷入逻辑悖论;4克里考特以关系消解实体的本质是将关系作了唯内在性的理解,而这种理解是缺乏支持力的。特别地,克里考特以整体解析部分并以关系消解个体的进路将导致伦理虚无主义。针对克里考特理论的缺陷,本文指出,以"关系"为纽结的部分与整体之间是体用统一的;而实体间的关系,既具有内在性的一面,也具有外在性的一面;并且,关系的外在性既具有本然的维度,也具有应然的维度,即,它是道德实践的必要前提。     

An ethical dimension to sustainable restoration and long-term management of contaminated areas

Experience after the Chernobyl accident has shown that restoration strategies need to consider a wide range of different issues to ensure the long-term sustainability of large and varied contaminated areas. Thus, the criteria by which we evaluate countermeasures need to be extended from simple cost-benefit effectiveness and radiological protection standards to a more integrated, holistic approach, including social and ethical aspects. Within the STRATEGY project, the applicability of many countermeasures is being critically assessed using a wide range of criteria. Attention is being given to issues such as practicability, feasibility, capacity and environmental side-effects, as well as social factors such as public perceptions of risk, communication of information and the need for dialogue and consultation with affected communities, and ethical aspects such as informed consent and the fair distribution of costs and doses. Although such socio-ethical factors are now the subject of a substantial field of research, there has been little attempt to integrate them in a practical context for decision makers. Within this paper, we specifically consider the ethical aspects of restoration strategies and suggest practical means by which these can be taken into account in the decision making process, introducing a value matrix. The paper covers two critical areas: evaluation of individual countermeasures, and use of the matrix to ensure transparent and systematic consideration of values in selection of a restoration strategy.