Modelling nutrient emissions from river systems and loads to the coastal zone: Po River case study,Italy

The nutrient emission model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions into River Systems) is applied to the Po catchment, a large (>70,000 km²), densely populated, highly agriculturally exploited and industrialized landscape. The catchment is located in northern Italy. The Po River discharges into the northwestern Adriatic Sea. Model runs cover the period 1991–2000. The purpose is to model the catchment in 2001, estimating nutrient emissions and natural background in the basin and loads to the coastal area. The model was calibrated with data for the period 1990–1995. After validation with data for the period 1995–2000, the model is used to evaluate future catchment management scenarios.MONERIS is a spatially distributed parameters steady state model with a time scale of 5 years. The emissions considered are originated from diffuse and point sources and delivered trough various pathways (groundwater, erosion, overland flow, atmospheric deposition, urban systems and WWTPs). In order to estimate nutrient loads to the river system, MONERIS includes a retention model.An overview of model input requirements, data needs and related problems and solutions adopted is presented in the paper. Simulated and measured data of several sections along the river are compared for calibration and validation. The relative importance of different nutrient generation pathways are evaluated. Finally, forecasted yearly nutrient loads at the outlet of PO basin for the years 2001, 2008 and 2016, consequence of different basin management scenarios, are presented. The results are ready to be supplied to a water quality Coastal Zone Model, allowing us to evaluate significant switches in trophic state conditions of the coastal ecosystem [see Artioli, Y., Bendoricchio, G., Palmeri, L., this issue. Defining and modelling the coastal zone affected by the Po River (Italy). Ecol. Model.].     

A general process-based mass-balance model for phosphorus/eutrophication as a tool to estimate historical reference values for key bioindicators,as exemplified using data for the Gulf of Riga

This work describes how a general, process-based mass-balance model (CoastMab) for phosphorus for coastal areas may be used as a tool to estimate realistic values of “natural” or preindustrial reference levels of key bioindicators in coastal science, including the Secchi depth, a standard measure of water clarity, the chlorophyll-a concentration, an operational measure of phytoplankton biomass and the concentration of cyanobacteria, a measure of the concentration of harmful algae. The CoastMab-model is an ecosystem model giving monthly predictions to achieve seasonal variations of basin-wide properties. The selected case-study area, the Gulf of Riga, is sensitive to nutrient loading because of its shallowness and low openness towards the Baltic Proper. The morphometry of any coastal area, as given by the size and form parameters, influences all internal processes, such as sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion in water and from sediments to water, biouptake and retention in biota, stratification, mixing and outflow. There has been no mass-balance modeling for nitrogen (N) in this work because empirical data (from the HELCOM database) clearly indicate that the monthly primary production in the Gulf of Riga is regulated by phosphorus (P) – the mean monthly total-N to total-P ratios are well over 7.2 (the Redfield-ratio) and generally higher than 15 for the data used in this study (from 1992 to 2005). At present anthropogenic loads, the average modeled monthly values for Secchi depth, chlorophyll (Chl), cyanobacteria (CB) and total-P (TP) are 3.2 m, 3.8 μg/l, 78 μg/l and 31.3 μg/l, respectively. If 50% of all anthropogenic sources to the Gulf of Riga via rivers, point sources and diffuse sources were to be removed, these values would be 3.6 m, 3.4 μg Chl/l, 63 μg CB/l and 29.1 μg TP/l. If 60% of the anthropogenic phosphorus fluxes to the Baltic Proper were to be omitted and as well as 75% of all direct anthropogenic sources to the Gulf of Riga, the values would be 4.6 m, 2.7 μg Chl/l, 45 μg CB/l and 25.4 μg TP/l. These values represent the “natural” reference levels and it is not realistic to expect that remedial measures would improve the conditions more than that. Using the CoastWeb-model, similar calculations can be made for any given coastal area and the data necessary for such calculations are discussed in this work.     

Defining and modelling the coastal zone affected by the Po river (Italy)

One of the most important sources of pollution in coastal zones (CZ) is certainly that one produced by human activities in the associated river basin. Understanding the linkage between water quality in CZ and river catchments is important in order to better assess CZ processes and to evaluate different management options aimed at improving the coastal ecosystem state. CZ water quality targets as identified by the Water Framework Directive (EC 2000/60) require an accurate study of the effects of pollutant loads coming from river discharge.In order to evaluate the impacts of human activities in river catchments on the associated coastal zone, a sound definition for this geographic area is needed. Many definitions for this area have been proposed in different contexts. The definition is generally built upon a particular goal, and is henceforth highly variable according to the different purposes. In this paper a general methodology allowing to discern those areas of the sea that are directly influenced by fluvial discharge is presented. The methodology is based on the variation pattern of sea water characteristics, and provides a numerical evaluation of this influence. In particular an analysis based on salinity as tracer, results in a sound definition of this area. The methodology has been applied on the case study of the Po river. Due to the significant nutrient loads discharged by the river, the CZ associated with Po is affected by severe eutrophication phenomena that have important consequences on the ecosystem and on the socio-economy of the area.In order to study the impacts of nutrients loads carried by the river, a water quality model (WASP6) has been implemented. The model simulates the seasonal variability of nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton biomass and dissolved oxygen. Using the CZ model is possible to compare the effects of variations of nutrient loads on the biochemical (short term) and ecological (long term) quality of the coastal environment. This is accomplished by feeding nutrients loads forecasted for different scenarios by the catchment model (MONERIS) as forcing functions to the CZ model. This way the effect of the different catchment management scenarios are propagated to the CZ model, and the trophic conditions of the coastal ecosystem evaluated using TRIX.This study has been developed in the context of the European project EUROCAT.     

Modeling estuarine-shelf exchanges in a deltaic estuary: Implications for coastal carbon budgets and hypoxia

The export of wetland-derived materials to the coastal ocean (i.e., the “Outwelling” hypothesis) has received considerable attention over the past several decades. While a number of studies have shown that estuaries export appreciable amounts of nutrients and carbon, few studies have attempted to estimate the importance of estuarine sources for the coastal carbon budgets in river-dominated coastal ecosystems. A novel tidal prism model was developed to examine estuarine-shelf exchanges in the Barataria estuary, a deltaic estuary located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This estuary has been the site of a massive wetland loss, and it has been hypothesized that carbon export from the eroding coastal wetlands supports the development of a large hypoxic zone in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. The model results show that the Barataria estuary receives nitrogen through the tidal passes and releases carbon to the coastal ocean. The mean calculated tidal water discharge of 6930 m³ s⁻¹ is equivalent to about 43% of the lower Mississippi River discharge. The annual total organic carbon (TOC) export is 109 million kg, or 57 gC m² yr⁻¹ when prorated to the total water area of the estuary. This carbon export is equivalent to a loss of 0.5 m of wetland soil horizon over an area of 8.4 km², and accounts for about 34% of the observed annual wetland loss in the estuary between 1978 and 2000. Compared to the lower Mississippi River, the Barataria estuary appears to be a very small source of TOC for the northern Gulf of Mexico (2.7% of riverine TOC), and is unlikely to have a significant influence on the development of the Gulf's hypoxia.     

Elemental Analysis of Water and Sediments by External Beam Pixe Part 3: Axios (Vardar) River, Greece

The Axios (Vardar) River originates from the south west part of Yugoslavia, transverses Greece, and discharges into the Thermaikos bay in the north Aegean Sea.

The proton induced X-ray emission (PIXE) method with external beam was used for the elemental analysis of water and sediment samples, while measurements of water temperature, dissolved oxygen content, conductivity, pH, and the water flow were made in situ. Water samples were also analysed for total phosphates, nitrates, chlorophyll, and BOD. The data collected for a 16-month period indicate that the Axios River is polluted as far as the metal content is concerned; its primary productivity is low and it is slightly enriched during its course into the Greek territory.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

Nitrogen versus phosphorus limitation in a subtropical coastal embayment (Moreton Bay; Australia): Implications for management

An approach combining nutrient budgets, dynamic modelling, and field observations of phytoplankton and nitrogen (N₂)-fixing Lyngbya majuscula following changes in wastewater N loads, was used to demonstrate that Moreton Bay is potentially phosphorus (P) limited. Modelling and nutrient budgeting shows that benthic N-fixation loads are high, allowing the system to overcome any potential N-limitation. Phytoplankton biomass has shown little change from 1991 to 2006 in the sections of Moreton Bay most impacted by wastewater effluents, despite a large reduction in wastewater N loads from 2000 to 2002. This is consistent with modelling that also showed no reduction in primary productivity associated with reduced N loads. Most importantly, there have been rapid increases in the occurrence of N-fixing L. majuscula in Moreton Bay as wastewater P loads have increased relative to wastewater N loads. This is also consistent with modelling. This work supports the premise that there may be fundamental differences in nutrient limitation of primary production between subtropical and temperate coastal systems due to differences in the importance of internal nitrogen sources and sinks (N-fixation and denitrification). These differences need to be recognised for optimum management of coastal systems.     

Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: A comparison of empirical,process-based,and hybrid modelling approaches

The impact of 2 × CO₂ driven climate change on radial growth of boreal tree species Pinus banksiana Lamb., Populus tremuloides Michx. and Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP growing in the Duck Mountain Provincial Forest of Manitoba (DMPF), Canada, is simulated using empirical and process-based model approaches. First, empirical relationships between growth and climate are developed. Stepwise multiple-regression models are conducted between tree-ring growth increments (TRGI) and monthly drought, precipitation and temperature series. Predictive skills are tested using a calibration–verification scheme. The established relationships are then transferred to climates driven by 1× and 2 × CO₂ scenarios using outputs from the Canadian second-generation coupled global climate model. Second, empirical results are contrasted with process-based projections of net primary productivity allocated to stem development (NPP_s). At the finest scale, a leaf-level model of photosynthesis is used to simulate canopy properties per species and their interaction with the variability in radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit. Then, a top-down plot-level model of forest productivity is used to simulate landscape-level productivity by capturing the between-stand variability in forest cover. Results show that the predicted TRGI from the empirical models account for up to 56.3% of the variance in the observed TRGI over the period 1912–1999. Under a 2 × CO₂ scenario, the predicted impact of climate change is a radial growth decline for all three species under study. However, projections obtained from the process-based model suggest that an increasing growing season length in a changing climate could counteract and potentially overwhelm the negative influence of increased drought stress. The divergence between TRGI and NPP_s simulations likely resulted, among others, from assumptions about soil water holding capacity and from calibration of variables affecting gross primary productivity. An attempt was therefore made to bridge the gap between the two modelling approaches by using physiological variables as TRGI predictors. Results obtained in this manner are similar to those obtained using climate variables, and suggest that the positive effect of increasing growing season length would be counteracted by increasing summer temperatures. Notwithstanding uncertainties in these simulations (CO₂ fertilization effect, feedback from disturbance regimes, phenology of species, and uncertainties in future CO₂ emissions), a decrease in forest productivity with climate change should be considered as a plausible scenario in sustainable forest management planning of the DMPF.     

Developments in remote sensing, dynamic modelling and GIS applications for integrated coastal zone management

The International Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (ITC) has a research programme that should result in an integrated environmental coastal zone management system through three subprojects. The programme aims to develop methodologies and tools for assessing coastal zone changes, and for the evaluation of scenarios for coastal zone management, based on a spatio-temporal Geographical Information System (GIS) working platform which integrates remote sensing data, physical-morphodynamic and eco-hydrologic modelling, and a decision support system. The first subproject develops methodologies for the generation of optimum Remote Sensing (RS) data sets, leading to better interpretation and complementary use of conventional and new remote sensing imagery. It also integrates RS, GIS, and modelling through hypothesis generation, parameter estimation, evaluation and validation. The second subproject facilitates qualitative and quantitative analysis and prediction of the physical aspects of coastal landscape development under the influence of natural processes and human impacts. This subproject is based on the application of remote sensing and dynamic modelling. The third subproject leads to a spatio-temporal working platform which supports data integration of RS and in-situ measurements, and qualitative and quantitative analysis for the prediction of coastal landscape development. Both support decision making in Integrated Coastal Zone Management.     

Correlation of the methylating capacity of river and marine sediments to their organic sediment index

Methylation experiments of the metals Sn, Pb and Hg were carried out using representative terrestrial and marine sediment samples from the Axios river and Thermaikos Gulf in northern Greece. GC-FID, GC-TCD and GC-MS were used. The experiments were carried out on sterilised and bioactive samples by adding pure metals and metal salts (chloride, nitrate, oxalate, acetic, penicillaminic, methioninic and cysteinic). Except for sterilised HgCl2, methylated derivatives of Sn, Pb and Hg were produced only from bioactive sediments, and therefore higher yields were measured when nutrients were added to the sediments. Volatile products (CH4, CO2, H2S) of biological activity range between 35 and 250 mg l-. The correlation of methylation yield with organic sediment index (OSI), determined as the wt% product of [organic carbon] × [organic nitrogen], is positive for all the metals and metal salts added in the sediments. Methylation yields for Hg are found to be four orders of magnitude higher than those of Pb and Sn. In low OSI (terrestrial) sediments, the rate of Hg-methylation is higher than those of Pb and Sn. In high OSI (marine) sediments, where methylation of most of the contained Hg has taken place, methylation of Pb is slightly faster than Sn.     

Predicting suitable habitat for the European lobster (Homarus gammarus), on the Basque continental shelf (Bay of Biscay), using Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis

Predicting species distribution and habitat suitability (HS) modelling, across broad spatial scales, is now a major challenge in marine ecology. The resulting knowledge is of considerable use in supporting the implementation of environmental legislation, integrated coastal zone management and ecosystem-based fisheries management. This contribution considers the identification of seafloor morphological characteristics, together with wave energy conditions, that determine the presence of European lobster (Homarus gammarus); and it predicts suitable habitats over the Basque continental shelf (Bay of Biscay), in summer. The results obtained, by applying Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), indicate that lobster habitat differs considerably from the mean environmental condition over the study area; likewise, that it is restrictive in terms of the range of conditions in which they dwell. The best of the environmental predictors found to be: distance to the rock substrate; Benthic Position Index; wave flux over the seafloor; and the underlying bathymetry. A habitat suitability map was produced, with a high model quality (Boyce index: 0.98 ± 0.06). The most suitable habitat for European lobster are locations at the boundary between sedimentary- and rocky-bottoms, coincident with seafloor depressions with a steep slope, with medium to high wave energy conditions, and located within a range of water depths of 35–40 m. This approach demonstrates the applicability of the method in case studies where only presence data are available, together with the inclusion of environmental variables obtained from different sources.     

Scenario analysis of water pollution control in the typical peri-urban river using a coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model

The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth. In the study, a typical peri-urban river, Nansha River, was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation. Located in the north part of the Beijing central region, the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones. However, the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources (NPS) and point sources (PS). In this study, the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed. A coupled model, derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program, was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River. According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river, three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses. Based on the results of the scenario analysis, a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.     

Fuzzy modelling of chlorophyll production in a Brazilian upwelling system

In the context of coastal management the aim of this paper is to present the development of a fuzzy model through the application of a Genetic algorithm in order to select the most appropriate set of variables and improve our understanding with a set of rules. The case studied is the chlorophyll response as bioindicator of ecological status in the Northeast coastal upwelling system of Rio de Janeiro state, Southeastern of Brazil. The prediction of the fuzzy model has shown an improved performance when compared to the traditional approaches as Multiple Regression modelling. The results show that the set of inferred rules can assess three different water masses. Despite the increased occurrence of upwelling is observed in spring–summer period and some instability of the model, it is able to forecast some chlorophyll peaks. We conclude that the sampling frequency is crucial to reach a better performance.     

Historical maps and satellite images as tools for shoreline variations and territorial changes assessment: the case study of Volturno Coastal Plain (Southern Italy)

Anthropic pressure has caused severe variations of Mediterranean coastal areas currently hosting about 480 million people. The replacement of natural land covers with crops and urban environment coupled with the reduction of sediment supply to the coast, subsidence, Relative Sea Level Rise and the high frequency of storm events, have caused severe shoreline erosion. In this paper, we stress the key role of historical maps, topographic maps and free satellite images to forecast the rates of coastline changes and to recognize the main features of past landscapes as tools for risk reduction. This data was recorded into a Geographical Information System dedicated to coastal management that allows to compare different coastal zones and elaborate maps. The analysis was applied to the case study of Volturno Coastal Plain (VCP), extending from the town of Mondragone to Patria Lake (Campania Region, Southern Italy). Indeed, the intense territorial modification that occurred between the seventies and eighties, coupled with the exposure to coastal erosion, make the VCP a good test area. The spatial analysis algorithms allowed to outline the main features of past landscapes and how they changed from roman times to present while the coastal evolution (erosion, accretion) and possible future coastal trend was assessed with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software. Starting from the Bourbon domain, the reclamation caused the first great territorial change (e.g. wetlands were transformed into agricultural lands, regimentation of surperficial water) but the negative effects of antrophic pressure, as the intense urbanization of the coastal belt, emerged in the seventies of the last century. The shoreline position was defined for 9 time intervals (from 1817 to 2012) as the ratio of the distance between two shorelines and the relative elapsed time. Moreover, for the 1957–1998 and 1998–2012 time windows, the shoreline trends were calculated with the weighted linear regression method. The first trend pointed out an intensive erosional phase (mean value: 5 m/yr) for a wide sector close to the Volturno River mouth, the eroded sediment nourished the beaches of other coastal sectors. This phase was related to the reduction of River sediment supply mainly due to the construction of the Ponte Annibale dam on the Volturno River. The second (1998–2012) showed an alternation of erosion and accretion sectors due to a sediment starved condition to deltaic zone and to a sequence of 52 sea protection works in the Gaeta Gulf. Furthermore, the regression values of more recent time interval, was assumed as a scenario to draw the probable shoreline position in 2022. The overlay of this shoreline on the Technical Maps of Campania Region at 1:5000 scale highlighted the urban area that could be exposed to damages.     

Control division of agricultural non-point source pollution at medium-sized watershed scale in Southeast China

This paper presents the study carried out for controlling agricultural non-point source pollution (NSP) in a medium-sized watershed covering 1.47 × 10⁴ km² in Southeast China using quantitative analysis coupled with geographic information system (GIS), universal soil loss equation (USLE), soil conservation service-curve number (SCS-CN), nutrient loss equations, and annualized agricultural nonpoint source model (AnnAGNPS). Based on the quantitative results derived from GIS and environmental models, five control division units were generated for NSP control in Jiulong River watershed, namely, controlling unit for soil losses, controlling unit for livestock breeding and soil losses, controlling unit for excessive fertilizer use and livestock breeding, controlling unit for soil losses and fertilizer use, and controlling unit for excessive fertilizer use and soil losses. This study proved that integrating GIS with environmental models can be adopted to efficiently evaluate major sources and contributors of NSP, and identify the critical source areas of NSP, which enables adjusting measures to local conditions by further control division units developed through such study for control and management of water quality degradation induced by NSP in the Jiulong River watershed.     

Using artificial neural network for reservoir eutrophication prediction

Reservoirs provide approximately 70% of water supply for domestic and industrial use in Taiwan. The water quality of reservoirs is now one of the key factors in the operation and water quality management of reservoirs. Transient weather patterns result in highly variable magnitudes of precipitation and thereby sharp fluctuations in the surface elevation of the reservoirs. In addition, excessive watershed development in the past two decades has contributed to continuing increase in nutrient loads to the reservoirs. The difficulty in quantifying watershed nutrient loads and uncentainties in kinetic mechanism in the water column present a technical challenge to the mass balance based modeling of reservoir eutrophication. This study offers an alternative approach to quantifying the cause-and-effect relationship in reservoir eutrophication with a data-driven method, i.e., capturing non-linear relationships among the water quality variables in the reservoir. A commonly used back-propagation neural network was used to relate the key factors that influence a number of water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), and secchi disk depth (SD) in a reservoir in central Taiwan. Study results show that the neural network is able to predict these indicators with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the neural network is a valuable tool for reservoir management in Taiwan.     

A linked model of animal ecology and human behavior for the management of wildlife tourism

Wildlife tourism attractions are characterized as having intricately coupled human-wildlife interactions. Accordingly, the ability to mitigate negative impacts of tourism on wildlife necessitates research into the ecology of the system and of the human dimensions, since plans aimed at optimizing wildlife fitness must also be acceptable to tourists. We developed an integrated systems dynamics model for the management of tourist-stingray interactions at ‘Stingray City Sandbar’ (SCS), Cayman Islands. The model predicts the state of the tourism attraction over time in relation to stingray population size, stingray life expectancy, and tourist visitation under various management scenarios. Stingray population data in the model comprised growth rates and survival estimates (from mark-and-recapture data) and mortality estimates. Inputted changes in their respective rates under different management scenarios were informed by previous research. Original research on the demand of heterogeneous tourist segments for management regulations via a stated choice model was used to calculate changes in the tourist population growth rate from data supplied by the Caymanian government. The management attributes to which tourists were responsive also have anticipated effects on stingray ecology (migration and mortality), and vice versa, thus linking the two components. We found that the model's predictions over a 25-year time span were sensitive to the stingray population growth rate and alternate management options. Under certain management scenarios, it was possible to maximize both the tourist segment in favor of no management and stingray numbers while reducing stingray health. However, the most effective relative strategy included a reduction in visitor density, restricted stingray interactions, and an imposition of a small fee. Over time, although fewer stingrays were predicted to remain at SCS, they would live longer and experience fewer stochastic disease events, and the desirable tourist segment was predicted to predominate. By understanding how management will affect tourist activities and their subsequent impacts on both wildlife health and visitor satisfaction, one can explore the management alternatives that would optimize both.     

An integrated river basin-coast-sea modelling scenario for nitrogen management in coastal waters

Linked river basin and coastal water models were applied to analyse the effects of an optimal nitrogen management scenario in the Oder/Odra river basin on water quality in the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay (Baltic Sea). This scenario would reduce nitrogen loads into the coastal waters by about 35%, a level which is similar to the load of the late 1960’s. During summer the primary production and algae biomass in the Oder estuary is limited by nitrogen, which makes a nitrogen management reasonable. The comparison of the late 1960’s and the mid 1990’s shows that an optimal nitrogen management has positive effects on coastal water quality and algae biomass. However, this realistic nitrogen reduction scenario would not ensure a good coastal water quality according to the European Water Framework Directive. A good water quality in the river will not be sufficient to ensure a good water quality in the lagoon. Nitrogen load reductions bear the risk of increased potentially toxic, blue-green algae blooms, especially in the Baltic coastal sea. However, to reach water quality improvements in lagoons and inner coastal waters, nitrogen cuts are necessary. A mere focus on phosphorus is not sufficient.     

小流域面源污染减控措施优化管理

以长春市重要饮用水源地石头口门水库的莫家沟小流域为研究区,选择横垄耕作、修建梯田、退耕还林、化肥减施和人工湿地5种措施进行磷素削减处理,共计21个措施组合方案;以实施措施的费用最小为目标函数,以水库水质TP浓度和采用不同措施的土地面积为约束条件,建立小流域出口水质优化管理模型。模拟计算3个阶段的可行性最优方案分别为:2011—2020年,选取措施为施肥量不变,现状梯田面积不变,坡度≤5°的耕地采取横垄耕作,其他退耕还林;2021—2030年,在第一阶段实施方案的基础上,新建人工湿地0.03 km2;2031—2050年,全部农田原位退耕还林,保持人工湿地面积不变,最终实现入库水质ρ(TP)≤0.01 mg.L-1的目标。化肥减施和梯田建设面积是影响方案选择的主要因素。     

From meso- to macro-scale dynamic water quality modelling for the assessment of land use change scenarios

The implementation of the European Water Framework Directive requires reliable tools to predict the water quality situations in streams caused by planned land use changes at the scale of large regional river basins. This paper presents the results of modelling the in-stream nitrogen load and concentration within the macro-scale basin of the Saale river (24,167 km²) using a semi-distributed process-based ecohydrological dynamic model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The simulated load and concentration at the last gauge of the basin show that SWIM is capable to provide a satisfactory result for a large basin. The uncertainty analysis indicates the importance of realistic input data for agricultural management, and that the calibration of parameters can compensate the uncertainty in the input data to a certain extent. A hypothesis about the distributed nutrient retention parameters for macro-scale basins was tested aimed in improvement of the simulation results at the intermediate gauges and the outlet. To verify the hypothesis, the retention parameters were firstly proved to have a reasonable representation of the denitrification conditions in six meso-scale catchments. The area of the Saale region was classified depending on denitrification conditions in soil and groundwater into three classes (poor, neutral and good), and the distributed parameters were applied. However, the hypothesis about the usefulness of distributed retention parameters for macro-scale basins was not confirmed. Since the agricultural management is different in the sub-regions of the Saale basin, land use change scenarios were evaluated for two meso-scale subbasins of the Saale. The scenario results show that the optimal agricultural land use and management are essential for the reduction in nutrient load and improvement of water quality to meet the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive and in view of the regional development plans for future.