How unnecessarily high abatement costs and unresolved distributional issues undermine nutrient reductions to the Baltic Sea

This paper systematically reviews the literature on how to reduce nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea cost-effectively and considerations for allocating these costs fairly among countries. The literature shows conclusively that the reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) could be achieved at considerably lower cost, if countries would cooperate to implement the least costly abatement plan. Focusing on phosphorus abatement could be prudent as the often recommended measures—wastewater treatment and wetlands—abate nitrogen too. An implication of our review is that the potential for restoring the Baltic Sea to good health is undermined by an abatement strategy that is more costly than necessary and likely to be perceived as unfair by several countries. Neither the BSAP nor the cost-effective solution meet the surveyed criteria for fairness, implying a need for side-payments.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01580-4.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Does Divergence of Nutrient Load Measurements Matter for Successful Mitigation of Marine Eutrophication?

Successful implementation of an international nutrient abatement agreement, such as the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), requires consistent understanding of the baseline nutrient loads, and a perception of acceptable costs and fairness in targeted reductions of these base line loads. This article presents a general framework for identifying the implications of divergence between different nutrient load quantification approaches, with regard to both cost and fairness criteria outcomes, for the international agreement to decrease nutrient loads into the Baltic Sea as presented in the BSAP. The results indicate that even relatively small divergence in the nutrient load quantification translates into relatively large differences in abatement cost for different Baltic Sea countries. A robust result, irrespective of differences in nutrient load assessments, is a conflict between abatement cost effectiveness and fairness, with relatively poor countries facing heavy abatement cost burdens for cost-effective international load abatement.     

The Costs of Meeting the Environmental Objectives for the Baltic Sea: A Review of the Literature

The environmental targets of the recently agreed Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets are likely associated with a considerable cost, which motivates a search for low-cost policies. The following review shows there is a substantial literature on cost-efficient nutrient reduction strategies, including suggestions regarding low-cost abatement, but actual policies at international and national scale tend to be considerably more expensive due to lack of instruments that ensure a cost-efficient allocation of abatement across countries and sectors. Economic research on the costs of reducing hazardous substances and oil spill damages in the Baltic Sea is not available, but lessons from the international literature suggest that resources could be used more efficiently if appropriate analysis is undertaken. Common to these pollution problems is the need to ensure that all countries in the region are provided with positive incentives to implement international agreements.     

Strengthening the policy framework to resolve lax implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan for agriculture

In this perspective article, we provide recommendations for strengthening the policy framework for protecting the Baltic Sea from agricultural nutrient pollution. The most striking weakness is the lax implementation of prescribed abatement measures, particularly concerning manure management, in most countries. Institutions of the EU should also be leveraged for achieving Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) goals. In contrast to the Helsinki Convention, the European Union has economic, political and legal mandates to further implementation and compliance. Equally important is the need for strengthening of local institutions, particularly Water Boards and independent agricultural advisory services in the eastern Baltic Sea Region countries. There is also an urgent need for implementation of voluntary land-use measures where EU funding available to farmers is more broadly and effectively used by providing it on the basis of estimated abatement performance, which can be realized through modelling. The enormous potential for funding performance-based schemes, manure management infrastructure and advisory services through the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy are currently underutilized.Supplementary Informationhe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01573-3.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.     

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Saving the Baltic Sea,the Inland Waters of Its Drainage Basin,or Both? Spatial Perspectives on Reducing P-Loads in Eastern Sweden

Nutrient loads from inland sources to the Baltic Sea and adjacent inland waters need to be reduced in order to prevent eutrophication and meet requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). We here investigate the spatial implications of using different possible criteria for reducing water-borne phosphorous (P) loads in the Northern Baltic Sea River Basin District (NBS-RBD) in Sweden. Results show that most catchments that have a high degree of internal eutrophication do not express high export of P from their outlets. Furthermore, due to lake retention, lake catchments with high P-loads per agricultural area (which is potentially of concern for the WFD) did not considerably contribute to the P-loading of the Baltic Sea. Spatially uniform water quality goals may, therefore, not be effective in NBS-RBD, emphasizing more generally the need for regional adaptation of WFD and BSAP-related goals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0523-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

A New Phosphorus Paradigm for the Baltic Proper

The external phosphorus (P) loading has been halved, but the P content in the water column and the area of anoxic bottoms in Baltic proper has increased during the last 30 years. This can be explained by a temporary internal source of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) that is turned on when the water above the bottom sediment becomes anoxic. A load-response model, explaining the evolution from 1980 to 2005, suggests that the average specific DIP flux from anoxic bottoms in the Baltic proper is about 2.3 g P m⁻² year⁻¹. This is commensurable with fluxes estimated in situ from anoxic bottoms in the open Baltic proper and from hydrographic data in the deep part of Bornholm Basin. Oxygenation of anoxic bottoms, natural or manmade, may quickly turn off the internal P source from anoxic bottoms. This new P-paradigm should have far-reaching implications for abatement of eutrophication in the Baltic proper.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0441-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Past,current and future Swedish freshwater monitoring from an authority perspective

The synthesis of the BONUS+ research is introduced. The HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan is examined as a case to illustrate the potentials and challenges in building the science–policymaking interface on a macroregional level. The projects address environmental challenges in the Baltic Sea as defined by the Baltic Sea Action Plan, or consider the environmental governance and decision making within the Baltic Sea context in general. Eutrophication, biodiversity, hazardous substances, maritime activities, and the environment governance are addressed, as are crosscutting issues, such as the impact of climate change, maritime spatial planning and impacts of future development on ecosystem services. The projects contributed to relevant policy developments: 37 consultations carried out at EU level, 49 modifications to policy documents and action plans, 153 suggestions for the efficacy of pertinent public policies and governance, and in 570 occasions, scientists working in BONUS+ projects served as members or observers in scientific and stakeholder committees.     

Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: the combined use of 1D and 3D modeling in assessing long-term state scenarios with high spatial resolution

An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved. The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model. The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the "Finland" scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly. This would be the case, even for runs covering several decades, which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland. A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the "St. Petersburg" scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it. A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland, as well. However, it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the "Poland" scenario is seen, while in the "St. Petersburg" scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years. Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target, regardless of their location and country.     

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01393-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland

Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year⁻¹ and 115 t P year⁻¹. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

Multi-criterial evaluation of P-removal optimization in rural wastewater treatment plants for a sub-catchment of the Baltic Sea

Rural wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) are recognized as a significant phosphorous (P)-emission source in the German sub-catchments of the Baltic Sea. But enhancement of P-removal is cost intensive especially for small communities. This study proposes a concept to efficiently reduce P-emissions from WWTP by introducing low-cost non-constructional measures and assessing the resulting change of ambient water quality on a river basin scale. As case study, we choose the Warnow catchment in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Germany) where 76 % of WWTP-emissions originate from treatment plants without P-discharge limits. For these facilities, we evaluated two modification options: (1) optimization of enhanced biological Phosphorous removal (EBPR) in activated sludge systems (ASS) and/or (2) chemical precipitation (where EBPR is applicable). The total operational optimization potential in the Warnow catchment is about 20 %. Further improvements can only be applied by a chemical precipitation, with the drawback of increasing the wastewater disposal cost up to 6.5 euros CAP^?1a^?1. To prioritize relevant plants for improved P-removal we proposed two evaluation criteria: combining absolute emission, and impact on ambient water quality and costs.