彭州市土地利用变化及驱动力分析

依据1992～2003土地利用变更数据，分析彭州市土地利用动态、土地利用程度和土地利用区域差异等变化情况。总结了引起土地利用变化的主要驱动力是地形条件、人口增长、工业化和城镇化、第三产业的发展、交通条件、政策因素等六个方面，并针对目前土地利用中存在的主要问题，提出相应的措施，以期对彭州市社会经济发展提供参考。     

县级土地利用动态变化及驱动力分析——以郑州市中牟县为例

以郑州市中牟县为例,利用土地详查和统计数据等资料,建立土地利用动态变化模型,分析了中牟县1996-2008年土地利用数量、速度、程度、区域差异等变化,揭示中牟县土地利用变化特征.同时,采用主成分分析法得出城镇化进程和收入水平提高是影响中牟县土地利用变化的主要驱动因素.     

区域土地利用的社会效益及其时空特征研究

土地利用的社会效益是社会经济可持续发展的基础。从用地公平、居民生活质量、社会公平和社会保障等四个方面构建土地利用社会效益评价指标体系，采用AHP法、变异系数法和综合评价模型对湛江市土地利用的社会效益进行了评价，并分析了其时空特征。结果表明，1996-2006年湛江市土地利用的用地公平性较高且变化较小，而居民生活质量、社会公平性和社会保障功能都有不同程度的提高，土地利用的社会效益明显增加；2006年土地利用社会效益以遂溪县最高、徐闻县最低。分析了土地利用社会效益的主要影响因素，并提出了相应的对策措施。     

重庆市都市区城市土地集约利用评价

从土地投入强度、土地利用效益、土地利用强度和土地利用可持续性方面构建了城市土地集约利用宏观评价指标体系.采用多因素综合评价法对重庆市都市区建设用地集约利用水平进行了评价,并根据土地利用集约度差异对其进行了聚类分析,指出土地利用投入强度、产出效益水平仍需进一步提高,揭示了城市土地集约利用程度与经济发展之间存在明显的相关性,针对性地提出了相关对策.     

黑龙江垦区土地资源可持续利用研究

以黑龙江垦区土地资源利用为例,运用统计分析方法,结合土地利用变化幅度和土地利用动态度等分析指标,对黑龙江垦区土地利用现状与动态变化进行分析。在此基础上,提出了黑龙江垦区土地利用中存在的主要问题：耕地面积总量增加,但人均耕地面积下降;土地资源利用效益有待提高;土地质量逐年下降,生态环境趋于恶化;部分农场场址道路建设用地过大,土地浪费现象严重;土地后备资源日益匮乏,开发整理复垦难度大等5个方面,并提出了相关的对策建议。     

中国东西部生态功能区城市土地利用模式对比研究

研究目的是解决《全国主体功能区规划》颁布后生态功能区城市土地利用模式优化问题。研究方法选取中国东部和西部同纬度的福建南平市与贵州毕节市为实证区域,采用对比分析法、熵权法、综合评价模型等定量分析方法对比两城市土地利用历史、现状和潜力的基础上,结合两城市中心城区的土地空间布局的相似性和差异,分析了两城市土地利用的异同点,提出两城市土地利用模式优化策略。结果表明:1在土地利用历史进程方面,南平市和毕节市都经历了不同的经济发展阶段和土地利用结构动态变化阶段;2在土地利用现状评价方面,南平市土地利用程度整体高于毕节市,但两城市土地利用与社会经济发展的耦合关系不同,南平市社会经济产出相对较高,而毕节市土地资源禀赋相对较好;3在土地利用潜力方面,两城市尤其是南平市土地强度均高出全国城市平均水平,说明潜力有限。此外,两城市结构潜力也存在较大差异。结果认为,南平市属于高密度集中型土地利用模式,而毕节市属于集中型土地利用模式。两城市土地利用的功能、空间布局以及土地利用模式有一定的相似性,但由于两城市所处的空间区位及自然社会经济条件不同,因此在区域发展中所定位的土地开发性质也不同。     

喀什市土地利用对生态环境的影响分析

喀什市土地利用总体规划实施以来,土地利用变化对生态环境的影响显著,文章从土地沙化、土壤盐渍化、水环境情况、土壤地膜污染、土壤肥力、生物多样性、沙尘暴、大气污染物时空分布特征等方面分析了喀什市土地生态环境现状,通过分析土地利用规模、结构和布局及基础设施建设、土地开发整理和重大生态建设工程对生态环境的影响,提出喀什市生态改善目标及用地建议.     

2003—2008年兰州市土地利用变化及其驱动因素研究

土地利用变化的驱动力研究是全球变化研究中的一个重点。以甘肃省兰州市为例,在土地变更详查数据及兰州市统计年鉴资料基础上,研究土地利用变化的特点,分析城镇化、工业化过程中的土地利用变化趋势及土地利用变化驱动因子。运用主成分分析法得到兰州市土地利用变化的主要驱动因子为人口增长、经济发展、农业发展、政府政策。根据研究结果提出土地管理措施,为研究区土地的可持续利用提供依据。     

石羊河流域土地利用类型变化与转换效果分析

石羊河流域水土资源的供需状况成为决定该地区发展的生命线。随着地区社会经济的发展,土地利用的格局、深度和强度在不断变化,土地利用的类型也趋于多样化。利用石羊河流域1980年、1990年、2010年三期土地现状数据分析该流域各县市的土地利用类型的变化,比较1980—1990年、1990—2010年两个时段土地利用转换,引入上升性理论与方法分析两个时段土地利用类型转移的整体效果。从分析结果来看,随着土地利用类型的转移,整体上提高了石羊河流域土地资源利用的效益与效率,提升了流域土地利用的发展潜力空间。     

玛多县土地利用与景观格局分析及预测

土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究是全球环境变化和可持续发展的热点问题。文章选取了青海省玛多县2005年、2009年和2013年Landsat卫星影像数据,利用GIS技术和景观格局分析软件相结合的方法,对玛多县近九年来该区土地利用/土地覆盖变化、景观结构与格局进行分析,并结合Markov模型,预测玛多县未来十几年间土地利用景观格局演变特征。结果表明,草地是玛多县最主要的土地利用类型;2005~2013年,玛多县草地和人工用地面积增加,人工用地动态度最大;土地利用/覆盖类型总变化面积为12 983.87km2。2005~2009年玛多县景观异质性不断减小,空间连接性增加,景观团聚程度高,各类型斑块分布较集中;2009~2013年玛多县景观异质性增强,景观破碎化程度高、团聚程度低;景观趋于多样化和丰富化。     

基于信息熵的武汉城市土地利用空间结构变动分析

借助城市土地利用空间结构的信息熵和均衡度概念,揭示了武汉城市在20世纪90年代土地利用结构的空间变化规律,得出土地利用职能类型收缩、城市用地趋向不均衡发展态势的结论.利用主成分与灰色关联相结合的方法找出影响武汉城市土地利用空间结构变动的主要动力因子,它们分别是城市福利和城市社会结构变化推动因子、城市产业结构变化拉动因子和城市建设与改造压力因子,其中后两个因子是驱动城市土地利用空间发生变化的最显著性因子.     

济南市农村居民点用地分析及节约利用对策

随着城市化水平的提高以及城市规模的扩大，耕地日趋减少，城市用地需求量不断增加，用地矛盾加剧。通过对济南市农村居民点用地现状分析，指出了农村居民点用地存在的问题，土地利用程度低、土地资源浪费是农村居民点用地普遍存在的现象。在当前建设节约型社会的形势下，从提高土地利用程度等方面提出了节约用地的措施，指出平原地区是今后土地利用的重点；采取合理的经济措施，是解决农村居民点用地流转的新途径。     

Long-Term Impacts of Land-Use Change on Non-Point Source Pollutant Loads for the St. Louis Metropolitan Area, USA

A land-use-change simulation model (LEAM) and a non-point-source (NPS) water quality model (L-THIA) were closely coupled as LEAMwq in order to determine the long-term implications of various degree of urbanization on NPS total nitrogen (TN), total suspended particles (TSP), and total phosphorus (TP) loads. A future land-use projection in the St. Louis metropolitan area from 2005 to 2030 using three economic growth scenarios (base, low, and high) and a long-term precipitation dataset were used to predict the mean annual surface runoff and mean annual NPS pollutant loads in the region. Results show mean annual TN increases of 0.21%, 0.13%, and 0.14% by 2030 compared to 2000 under the base, high, and low scenarios, respectively. TSP and TP showed similar trends with different magnitudes. Corresponding changes in annual mean surface runoff were shown to be lower than expected, which might be attributed to the small-scale conversion pattern of land uses. In the most dramatic change (high growth) scenario, the runoff would increase across time but at varying rates, and temporal pollutant loads would result in a more complicated pattern than in the other scenarios. This is attributed to the complex interactions between event mean concentrations of pollutants and the magnitude of changes in land-use acreages. By integrating L-THIA with LEAM, LEAMwq was found to be a useful planning tool to illustrate in a quick and simple manner how future water quality is connected to decision-making on future land-use change.     

沿海城市土地集约利用水平演变研究——以大连市为例

根据城市土地集约利用涵义,综合考虑沿海城市化进程中城市土地集约利用的经济、社会与环境效益,选取了大连市1997—2007年8项指标,运用主成分分析法进行城市土地集约利用水平评价。在评价基础上结合大连城市发展特征,分析了城市土地集约利用水平演变趋势和阶段性。结果表明,大连城市土地集约利用水平逐年提高,且具有缓慢的连续性和骤增的阶段性特征。连续性提高是由于城市人口、经济聚集、经济容量增大、人口密度增加、城市设施局部优化完善使城市土地集约利用水平不断提高;阶段性提高是由于建成区土地面积扩张期伴随大幅度城市用地结构的优化调整和城市设施的整体完善过程,使城市土地集约利用水平显著提高。     

Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland

Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes.     

Land-Use Systems and Resilience of Tropical Rain Forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus,Mexico

Land-cover types were analyzed for 1970, 1990 and 2000 as the bases for determining land-use systems and their influence on the resilience of tropical rain forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus, Mexico. Deforestation (DR) and mean annual transformation rates were calculated from land-cover change data; thus, the classification of land-use change processes was determined according to their impact on resilience: a) Modification, including land-cover conservation and intensification, and b) Conversion, including disturbance and regeneration processes. Regeneration processes, from secondary vegetation under extensive use, cultivated vegetation under intensive use, and cultivated or induced vegetation under extensive use to mature or secondary vegetation, have high resilience capacity. In contrast, cattle-raising is characterized by rapid expansion, long-lasting change, and intense damages; thus, recent disturbance processes, which include the conversion to cattle-raising, provoke the downfall of the traditional agricultural system, and nullify the capacity of resilience of tropical rain forest. The land-use cover change processes reveal a) the existence of four land-use systems (forestry, extensive agriculture, extensive cattle-raising, and intensive uses) and b) a trend towards the replacement of agricultural and forestry systems by extensive cattle-raising, which was consolidated during 1990–2000 (DR of evergreen tropical rain forest=4.6%). Only the forestry system, which is not subject to deforestation, but is affected by factors such as selective timber, extraction, firewood collection, grazing, or human-induced fire, is considered to have high resilience (2 years), compared to agriculture (2–10 years) or cattle-raising (nonresilient). It is concluded that the analysis of land-use systems is essential for understanding the implications of land-use cover dynamics on forest recovery and land degradation in tropical rain forests.     

Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

合肥市近19年来土地利用格局的时空变化分析

利用Landsat TM、ETM 、CBERS—2资源卫星数据,采用基于知识型光谱特性的增强与人机交互解译相结合的方法,提取了合肥市1987年、2000年和2006年土地利用类型的专题信息。利用GIS空间分析技术和数理统计方法,分析了合肥市近19年来的土地利用变化特征。结果表明:①在整个阶段—耕地减少了23.38%,建设用地增加了61.26%;城镇用地新增速度最快,且新增速率远大于转移速率,属高速扩张型;②区内最"敏感"的类型是交通用地,其新增速率在两个阶段分别达到1.64和1.62,远高于其它的类型;④从城市扩展的方向上看,合肥城市的发展主要以西南部、南部和东部为主,西南部最为明显;城市已经形成以老城区为核心,向东、北、西南三翼伸展,形成"南进—东拓—西缓—北抑"的空间发展布局。     

Land-Cover Change Trajectories in Northern Ghana

Land-cover change trajectories are an emergent property of complex human–environment systems such as the land-use system. An understanding of the factors responsible for land change trajectories is fundamental for land-use planning and the development of land-related policies. The aims of this study were to characterize and identify the spatial determinants of agricultural land-cover change trajectories in northern Ghana. Land-cover change trajectories were defined using land-cover maps prepared from Landsat Thematic Mapper dataset acquired in 1984, 1992, and 1999. Binary logistic regression was used to model the probability of observing the trajectories as a function of spatially explicit biophysical and socioeconomic independent variables. Population densities generally increased along the continuum of land-use intensity, whereas distance from market and roads generally decreased along this continuum. Apparently, roads and market serve as incentives for settlement and agricultural land use. An increase in population density is an important spatial determinant only for trajectories where the dominant change process is agricultural extensification. A major response to population growth is an increase in cultivation frequency around the main market. Agricultural intensification is highly sensitive to accessibility by roads. The increase in land-use intensity is also associated with low soil quality. These results suggest the need for policies to restore soil fertility for agricultural sustainability. The models also provide a means for identifying functional relationships for in-depth analyses of land-use change in Ghana.