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Each of the last three decades has seen the Earth’s surface get progressively warmer more than any preceding decade since the 1850s. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have been scientifically demonstrated as the primary cause of the observed global climate change. The reduction of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere has deserved international attention. Aside from strategies to reduce emissions, increasing carbon storage by restoring and protecting destroyed forests has become an alternative method to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Therefore, effective restoration/conservation plans for deforested lands are urgently needed. The current work focuses on the restoration and conservation potential of destroyed Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) forests in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China and provides a reasonable approach for drafting effective restoration/conservation plans for deforested lands. We first estimated habitat suitability of the Qinghai spruce using a habitat suitability model based on the relationships among the three most influential/significant environmental variables: average annual precipitation (P), average air temperature in July (T), and solar radiation (R) and the corresponding occurrence frequency of Qinghai spruce in the niche space. We then calculated the index of habitat suitability (IHS) for Qinghai spruce by applying a model in the study area. We finally used field data to classify the IHS map and identified the prior restoration and conservation areas for Qinghai spruce. The results show that (1) the optimal combination of T, P, and R for Qinghai spruce is 11.5 °C, 380 mm, and 2?×?103 kWh/m2, respectively; (2) these forests have potential for restoration; (3) areas with priority restoration and conservation potential are about 43 and 56.65 km2. The results of this study will help decision-makers develop and implement effective restoration/conservation strategies in the Qilian Mountains. This study presents a useful approach for helping decision-makers in other regions of the world draft effective restoration/conservation plans for deforested lands. The implementation of these plans will reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, in turn, may retard global warming.  相似文献   

3.
This paper summarises the findings of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Expert Meeting on Methods for the Assessment of Inventory Data Quality held in Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 5–7 November 1997. Under the Kyoto Protocol of the Climate Convention, reliable inventories of national greenhouse gases (GHG) are needed for verifying compliance. Four approaches are suggested for assessing and improving the quality of greenhouse gas inventories: inventory quality assurance; inventory comparisons; model comparisons; and direct emission measurements. The paper presents recommendations for improving the quality of emission estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).  相似文献   

4.

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO2), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges.

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5.
Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frost-free) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However, our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress, inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring, increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds, insects, or disease, or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario, negative climate change effects will occur sooner, and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost- or risk-free, and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced, available capital, and timely, accurate climate projections.  相似文献   

6.
随着碳中和目标的提出,城市污泥高效资源化利用成为研究热点,为从碳排放角度对污泥处理处置技术路线进行科学比较,对4种典型污泥处理处置路线进行碳核算.基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提供的方法,结合我国污泥特性,以每t干污泥(DS)为核算对象,核算边界从污泥浓缩开始,到最终作为产品输出或能量回收为止,分为直接排放、间接排放和碳补偿这3种类型计算总碳排放量.结果表明R4路线(重力浓缩+热水解+厌氧消化+板框压滤脱水+运输+土地利用)总碳排放量(以CO2/DS计,下同)为99.41 kg·t-1,是最为低碳的污泥处理处置工艺路线,若避免其厌氧消化CH4逸散排放,该路线现阶段已能够实现碳中和.对碳排放量较大单元,如热干化1 049.24 kg·t-1,深度脱水960.99 kg·t-1,卫生填埋786.24 kg·t-1,焚烧635.52 kg·t-1,好氧堆肥614.17 kg·t-1,热水解544.67 ...  相似文献   

7.
We used three approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. First, we created distribution and abundance models for common bird species using climate, elevation, and tree species variables and modeled how bird distributions might change as habitats shift. Second, we assessed potential effects on high-elevation birds, especially Bicknell’s thrush (Catharus bicknelli), that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, by using statistical associations between climate, spruce-fir forest vegetation and bird survey data. Last, we complemented these projections with an assessment of how habitat quality of a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) might be affected by climate change. Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change, and these changes will be most dramatic under a scenario of continued high emissions. Indeed, high-elevation bird species may currently be at the threshold of critical change with as little as 1°C warming reducing suitable habitat by more than half. Species at mid elevations are likely to experience declines in habitat quality that could affect demography. Although not all species will be affected adversely, some of the Northeast’s iconic species, such as common loon and black-capped chickadee, and some of its most abundant species, including several neotropical migrants, are projected to decline significantly in abundance under all climate change scenarios. No clear mitigation strategies are apparent, as shifts in species’ abundances and ranges will occur across all habitat types and for species with widely differing ecologies.  相似文献   

8.
Over the past decade, the emission standards and fuel standards in Beijing have been upgraded twice, and the vehicle structure has been improved by accelerating the elimination of 2.95 million old vehicles. Through the formulation and implementation of these policies, the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in 2019 were 147.9, 25.3, 43.4, and 0.91 kton in Beijing, respectively. The emission factor method was adopted to better understand the emissions characteristics of primary air pollutants from combustion engine vehicles and to improve pollution control. In combination with the air quality improvement goals and the status of social and economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing, different vehicle pollution control scenarios were established, and emissions reductions were projected. The results show that the emissions of four air pollutants (CO, VOCs, NOx, and PM2.5) from vehicles in Beijing decreased by an average of 68% in 2019, compared to their levels in 2009. The contribution of NOx emissions from diesel vehicles increased from 35% in 2009 to 56% in 2019, which indicated that clean and energy-saving diesel vehicle fleets should be further improved. Electric vehicle adoption could be an important measure to reduce pollutant emissions. With the further upgrading of vehicle structure and the adoption of electric vehicles, it is expected that the total emissions of the four vehicle pollutants can be reduced by 20%-41% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.  相似文献   

9.
Climate equity is a crucial but difficult element in negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. With respect to the trading of greenhouse gas emissions the equity aspect is considered in the Kyoto Protocol which demands that emissions trading should be supplemental to domestic abatement efforts. The question arises whether a linking of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) to non-EU emission trading schemes or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could have an impact on principles of climate justice and thus potentially affect ongoing negotiations. In this study, we present the results of a three step analysis: In a first step, it estimates mid-term greenhouse gas emission entitlements for Annex B and Non-Annex B countries for the year 2020 which keep within reach a stabilization of the CO2 concentration at 450 ppmv in the long-term. In the second step, the resulting emission entitlements are used as an input to an economic partial-equilibrium model in order to assess the shift of abatement efforts under different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. In a third step, we analyze the outcome of the economic model with respect to the future trend of European per capita emissions under the current EU ETS relative to different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. The model results indicate that European per capita emissions have to be reduced to a considerably smaller extent if a linking of the EU ETS is accompanied by an optimal design of the National Allocation Plans and if low-cost CO2 permits became available via the CDM to a large extent.
B. BrounsEmail:
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10.
Several studies point out the importance of agricultural emissions to particulate matter (PM) concentrations, and particularly of NH3 emissions to PM2.5. Our study used three different chemical transport models (CHIMERE, EMEP and LOTOS-EUROS) to quantify the reductions of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations due to reductions of NH3 emissions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol (GP), as well as due to the GP alone compared to 2009. Simulations of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations using 2009 meteorology were undertaken for five emission scenarios: 2009 emissions (as the reference simulation), GP emissions in 2020, and further 10%, 20% and 30% NH3 emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP. The modelling results for the scenarios with further 10%, 20% and 30% NH3 agriculture emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP show that the reduction achieved in PM concentrations is not linear with the emission reductions. In fact, the results from the study show that the impact of ammonia emissions reduction is significantly more efficient when the emission reduction rises. Moreover, based on the evaluation on 2009, the modelling study shows that the expected impact of ammonia emissions on the formation of particulate ammonium was underestimated by all models. This would imply that the role of ammonia on PM concentration and exceedances of PM2.5 and PM10 limit values is likely to be even larger than quantified in this study. This study shows that the implementation of the emission reductions imposed by the revised GP for 2020 will not suffice to achieve compliance with PM limit values everywhere in Europe; hence further European and local measures may be considered. NH3 emissions from agriculture can be further reduced with the implementation of proven and feasible measures (substitution of fertilizers, improved storage of manure, way fertilizer injections, etc., …), in order to reduce PM concentrations and their impacts on human health across Europe.  相似文献   

11.
Vehicular emissions in China in 2006 and 2010 were calculated at a high spatial resolution based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, by taking the emission standards into consideration. China's vehicular emissions of carbon monoxide(CO),nitrogen oxides(NO_x), volatile organic compounds(VOCs), ammonia(NH_3), fine particulate matters(PM_(2.5)), inhalable particulate matters(PM_(10)), black carbon(BC), and organic carbon(OC) were 30,113.9, 4593.7, 6838.0, 20.9, 400.2, 430.5, 285.6, and 105.1 Gg, respectively, in 2006 and 34,175.2, 5167.5, 7029.4, 74.0, 386.4, 417.1, 270.9, and 106.2 Gg, respectively, in 2010. CO,VOCs, and NH_3 emissions were mainly from motorcycles and light-duty gasoline vehicles,whereas NO_X, PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and BC emissions were mainly from rural vehicles and heavyduty diesel trucks. OC emissions were mainly from motorcycles and heavy-duty diesel trucks. Vehicles of pre-China Ⅰ(vehicular emission standard of China before phase Ⅰ) and China Ⅰ(vehicular emission standard of China in phase Ⅰ) were the primary contributors to all of the pollutant emissions except NH_3, which was mainly from China Ⅲ and China Ⅳ gasoline vehicles. The total emissions of all the pollutants except NH_3 changed little from2006 to 2010. This finding can be attributed to the implementation of strict emission standards and to improvements in oil quality.  相似文献   

12.
This paper examines the risks associated with forest insect outbreaks in a changing climate from biological and forest management perspectives. Two important Canadian insects were considered: western spruce budworm (WSBW; Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), and spruce bark beetle (SBB; Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby, Coleoptera: Curculionidae). This paper integrates projections of tree species suitability, pest outbreak risk, and bio-economic modelling.Several methods of estimating pest outbreak risk were investigated. A simple climate envelope method based on empirically derived climate thresholds indicates substantial changes in the distribution of outbreaks in British Columbia for two climate scenarios and both pests. A “proof of concept” bio-economic model, to inform forest management decisions in a changing climate, considers major stand-level harvest decision factors, such as preservation of old-growth forest, and even harvest flow rates in the presence of changing tree species suitability and outbreak risk. The model was applied to data for the Okanagan Timber Supply Area and also the entire Province of British Columbia.At the provincial level, the model determined little net timber production impact, depending on which of two climate scenarios was considered. Several potentially important factors not considered in this first version of the model are discussed, which indicates that impact may be underestimated by this preliminary study. Despite these factors, negative impacts were projected at the Okanagan Timber Supply Area level for both scenarios.Policy implications are described as well as guidance for future work to determine impacts of climate change on future distribution and abundance of forest resources.  相似文献   

13.
We examined the potential impacts of future climate change on the distribution and production of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the northeastern USA’s continental shelf. We began by examining the response of cod to bottom water temperature changes observed over the past four decades using fishery-independent resource survey data. After accounting for the overall decline in cod during this period, we show that the probability of catching cod at specified locations decreased markedly with increasing bottom temperature. Our analysis of future changes in water temperature was based on output from three coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models under high and low CO2 emissions. An increase of <1.5°C is predicted for all sectors under the low emission scenario in spring and autumn by the end of this century. Under the high emission scenario, temperature increases range from ~2°C in the north to >3.5°C in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Under these conditions, cod appear vulnerable to a loss of thermal habitat on Georges Bank, with a substantial loss of thermal habitat farther south. We also examined temperature effects on cod recruitment and growth in one stock area, the Gulf of Maine, to explore potential implications for yield and resilience to fishing. Cod survival during the early life stages declined with increasing water temperatures, offsetting potential increases in growth with warmer temperatures and resulting in a predicted loss in yield and increased vulnerability to high fishing mortality rates. Substantial differential impacts under the low versus high emission scenarios are evident for cod off the northeastern USA.  相似文献   

14.
Greenhouse gas emission has been scientifically shown to be the primary cause of observed global climate change. The reduction of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere deserves international attention. Aside from strategies to reduce emissions, increasing carbon (C) storage by forests has become an alternative method to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. The present study assesses the potential of C storage to decrease gas emission by restoring cleared and disturbed spruce (picea) forests in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China. We first introduced and tested a new method for live aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation. We then used the method to define the relationship of AGB with topographic wetness index (TWI) and precipitation seasonality for total AGB estimation and quantification of the realized C storage in the live AGB of existing spruce forests. The same strategies were adopted to estimate the total AGB and the related potential C storage in the projected potential spruce forest distribution. A species distribution model was used, and the results showed that the AGB of the Qinghai spruce forests ranged between 2.30 and 4.96 Mg per plot (0.021 ha), i.e., 110 Mg ha-1 to 236 Mg ha-1). Actual total AGB was measured at 33 Tg, and C storage was 17.3 Tg in existing spruce forests. Potential total AGB and potential C storage were greater if the cleared and the potential C storage was ~50 Tg.  相似文献   

15.
基于船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)数据表征船舶排放是目前船舶排放空间表征的主流方法,但AIS船舶轨迹点缺失会造成船舶排放量低估和船舶空间分布表征错误,进而影响船舶排放控制区的划分.为改进船舶排放空间表征,本研究以2013年广东省AIS船舶数据为例,采用基于时间和经纬度的三次样条方法对AIS船舶轨迹进行修复,结合动力法计算船舶排放,分析对比AIS轨迹修复前后船舶排放表征的差异,并利用空气质量模型和卫星观测评估AIS轨迹修复对船舶排放表征和广东沿海空气质量模拟的改进效果.结果表明:轨迹修复后广东省海域船舶轨迹点总数由4685773个增至5746664个,船舶NOx排放量增加了0.6%.对于轨迹点与排放缺失集中的粤东海域,轨迹修复后船舶轨迹点数增加了88%,NOx排放量在广东省船舶排放量的占比提升至22%,特别是在粤东重点修复海域NOx排放量增加了2.7倍.原始轨迹在广东省海域较为稀疏,在粤东海域有明显轨迹缺失;轨迹修复后广东省海域船舶轨迹更为密集,粤东海域船舶轨迹得以补充,船舶排放空间分布更连贯.对比模拟结果与卫星观测结果,轨迹修复后粤东重点修复海域船舶模拟浓度与观测浓度的偏差由51%减至6%,总体上船舶排放模拟结果更接近卫星观测结果.  相似文献   

16.
This paper analyzes potential impacts of climate change on biomass carbon (C) density and water-use (actual evapotranspiration, AET) of savannah woodlands in Sudan. Climate change scenarios were developed from five General Circulation Models (GCMs; CGCM2, CSIRO2, ECHam4, HadCM3 and PCM) under two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission scenarios (A1FI and B1). Baseline (1961-90) climate and climate change scenarios for 2080s for eight map sheet grids (1° latitude x 1.5° longitude) were constructed. Compared to baseline values, mean annual precipitation (MAP) showed both increases (+112 to +221 mm) and decreases (?13 to ?188 mm) but mean annual temperature (MAT) only showed increases (+1.2 to +8.3 °C). Baseline biomass C densities showed an exponential relationship with MAP (y?=?6.798 e 0.0054x, R2?=?0.70). Depending on climate change MAP, biomass C densities increased (+14 to +241 g C m?2) or decreased (?1 to ?148 g?C m?2). However, because of uncertainty in biomass C density estimates, the changes were only significant (P <0.05) for some of the climate change scenarios and for grids with MAP >260 mm. Under A1FI emission scenarios, only HadCM3 did not have a significant effect while under B1 emission scenarios, only CGCM2 and ECHam4 had a significant effect on biomass C density. AET also showed both increases (+100 to +145 mm for vertisols and +82 to +197 mm for arenosols) and decreases (?12 to ?178 mm for vertisols and ?12 to ?132 mm for arenosols). The largest relative changes in AET (up to 31 %) were associated with grids receiving the lowest rainfall. Thus, even if MAP increases across the study region, the increase will have little impact on biomass levels in the driest areas of the region, emphasizing the need for improved management and use of savannah woodlands.  相似文献   

17.
Steel dominates the global metal production accounting for 5 % of increase in Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Today, India is the 4th largest producer of crude steel in the world. The sector contributes around 3 % to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) but adds 6.2 % to the national greenhouse gas (GHG) load. It accounts for 28.4% of the entire industry sector emissions, which are 23.9% of the country’s total emissions. Being a developing country, India is not obliged to cut its emissions under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), but gave voluntary commitment to reduce the emission intensity of its GDP by 20–25 % from the 2005 level by 2020. This paper attempts to find out if the Indian steel sector can help the country in fulfilling this commitment. The sector reduced its CO2 emissions per ton of steel produced by 58% from 1994 to 2007. The study generates six scenarios for future projections which show that the sector can reduce its emission intensity by 12.5 % to 63 %. But going by the conservative estimates, the sector can reduce emission intensity by 30 % to 53 %. However, actual emissions will go up significantly in every case.  相似文献   

18.
US residential and commercial buildings were responsible for about 41 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy use per year in 2002, accounting for approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions of 6.7 Gt that contribute to climate change. US Government-sponsored building energy efficiency research and implementation programs are focused on reducing energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings and reducing these carbon (C) emissions. Although not specifically intended for adaptation to a warmer climate and less effective than under today’s cooler climate, these programs also could help reduce energy demand in a future warmer world. Warming scenarios projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 imply net overall decreases in both site energy and primary energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings, largely because of the reduced need for heating. However, there would be as much as a 25% increase in building space cooling demand and a significant part of the increase could be offset by energy-efficiency improvements in buildings. Overall, in the US, buildings-related energy efficiency programs would reduce site energy consumption in buildings in the US by more than 2 EJ in 2020 and primary energy by more than 3.5 EJ, more than enough to offset the projected growth in cooling energy consumption due to climate change and growth in the US building stock. The savings would have an estimated annual net value at 2005 energy prices of between $45.0 and $47.3 billion to consumers.
Michael J. ScottEmail:
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19.
Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.  相似文献   

20.
闽江河口潮汐沼泽湿地CO_2排放通量特征   总被引:13,自引:7,他引:6  
以闽江河口区面积最大的鳝鱼滩湿地分布的3种植物沼泽湿地:土著种咸草(Cyperus malaccensis Lam.var.brevifolius Bocklr.)沼泽湿地、芦苇(Phragmites australis)沼泽湿地及外来入侵种互花米草(Spartina alterniflora Loisel.)沼泽湿地...  相似文献   

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